2009 was the first year of the preferential or ranked-choice ballot. Avatar came in at the end of the year, wowed everyone, became the highest-grossing film of all time (at the time), and brought Jim Cameron a Best Picture/Best Director win at the Golden Globes. But that night, his ex-wife and the director of The Hurt Locker, Kathryn Bigelow, was sitting in the audience, and there was a chance we were about to see the first woman win the top prizes. Watching Cameron win instead was a bit of a buzz kill for those who were right at the edge of a revolution — a great “Awokening” — that would change everything.
Bigelow and Cameron, Avatar and Hurt Locker: the highest-grossing movie against the lowest represented a potential dystopian vision for the future of Hollywood at the time. Actors would be replaced by performance capture, visual effects movies would crowd out the nuts and bolts dramas. All of that was humming alongside the drama of a Bigelow vs. Cameron “Battle of the Exes.”
Cameron’s Avatar was incredibly ambitious but it depended on people seeing it in the movie theater, preferably in 3-D. It did not translate to screener and looked a little silly on most home screens. By contrast, Bigelow’s film translated very easily to DVD screenerseverything. It was also the first year after Barack Obama won the presidency — an event that would do more to shape Hollywood than anything until Trump won in 2016.
Hurt Locker was about the war in Iraq that was meant to finally end. But it was also about the first woman winning Best Director and Best Picture. That mattered more. Of all of the ways Hollywood was influenced by the election of the first black president, it was this need to make history by continually achieving “firsts.” For the Obama coalition, then and now, they needed to be “good people doing good things.” Granted, that’s always been true of Oscar voters. It’s just that the movies now had to depict their protagonist doing good things for voters to feel like their votes counted. It didn’t use to matter whether the protagonist was a white male or the director was a white male. Now, it matters a lot — almost more than anything else.
First female Best Director winner would be followed by first Best Picture winner by a black director (though no black director has yet won), then by the first Best Picture winner in a foreign language. And after the Green Book apocalypse of 2018, things seem to have shifted away further from white male directors, almost like a black list. We still do not know if we are out of that. But I bring this up because that would be among the obstacles that would hold back Jim Cameron again, 13 years later.
But it also would hold back Steven Spielberg for The Fabelmans, come to that. It would benefit Women Talking and Everything, Everywhere, All at Once.
The initial reactions by those who have seen Avatar: The Way of the Water are overwhelmingly positive. I can’t review the movie here — I can only talk about how people are reacting. I would just say that the less you hear about it or read about it, the better.
Avatar: The Way of the Water has one advantage now that the original Avatar didn’t: Hollywood movies are dying. They are having a hard time bringing people into theaters, as the majority seem perfectly willing not to spend money or risk getting COVID to pay to see something they can see on streaming pretty quickly. In fact, before this movie screened I had convinced myself this was the end. There was nothing left. It was all streaming from here on out.
While it’s true that it is likely still the end for the kinds of movies Oscar voters still seem to want to vote on, this film is a pretty good indication that movies of this scale that cost this much, gives you your money’s worth and then some, are only just getting started. Welcome to the era of the “event movie.” But what an event!
The Academy will have to decide what they want their future to be. Do they want to make the Oscars about the kinds of movies they like, or are the Oscars going to keep up with the times and pick movies the public likes. Voters don’t vote that way, of course. They have no choice but to pick what they respond to emotionally.
The one thing we know for sure about the modern era is that we no longer have sweeps. Best Picture winners usually win about three Oscars in total. The Hurt Locker and The Artist are the two winners with the most trophies in the current era, with The Hurt Locker winning both tech and major awards. But that has changed — now, they split up. The big technical marvel goes one way, usually taking Best Director (but not always), and the smaller character drama takes Best Picture.
Last year’s split between The Power of the Dog for Best Director and CODA for Best Picture was weird. It was unusual. Jane Campion had the momentum heading in, with a film with the most nominations (12) up against a Best Pic nominee with the least (three), which ended up winning Best Picture. Both of them were on streaming platforms.
Now, we have The Fabelmans, a theatrical release by the guy who wants to save movies and the guy who once predicted our future to be “event movies,” vs. Everything Everywhere All at Once, which was the rare indie to draw a crowd in the theaters. Then we have Women Talking, a #MeToo movie in the same year of the Harvey Weinstein/Paul Haggis trials, where there are three #MeToo movies in the race, along with TAR and She Said.
Women Talking fits more in keeping with the new generation of the Academy, which prioritizes social justice issues. It is worth noting that Everything Everywhere All at Once has a social justice message as well — it’s about a conservative-ish parent accepting her gay daughter. And, of course, Avatar has a very strong, pro-environment, “protect the oceans” message.
The Fabelmans is the one movie of the bunch that is a memoir: Spielberg’s self-portrait of the artist as a young man. I can give you a million reasons why it would have a harder time winning today, in 2022 — but the truth is, none of us knows yet how the voters will feel by the end, whether they connect with the story or with Spielberg’s entire career. It is an interesting mix of movies, that’s for sure.
Either way, we have a formidable contender in Avatar: The Way of the Water. We have the one movie that could theoretically sweep. Its biggest obstacle now, as it was back in 2009, is the actors. In general, they are not too happy about performance capture. Then again, are they happy that their business is dying? I guess it’s a toss-up.
Dune won the most Oscars last year, but not Best Picture. That has been the trend in the era of the ranked-choice ballot, which is why I think they should abandon it. Best Picture should be what all branches are passionate about, not this compromised version. I think that has hurt the Oscars over time.
Either way, here are the tallies so far:
HURT LOCKER didn’t win because of feminism. It’s the better picture.
AVATAR was a great thrill ride, but, HURT LOCKER delivered in story, acting and direction.
Honestly… liked and respected Avatar. A lot. Found it an already seen – multiple times, from Pocahontas to The Emerald Forest – story used as excuse to make business with new technological advances. Best Picture and Director nomination? Sure, enough reward. But that’s why techs awards are given and also special Oscars for advances are also given.
Best Picture of 2009, in my book? This one…
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Supporting Actor (Peter Capaldi) * almost ex-aequo with James Gandolfini
Best Adapted Screenplay
Best Film Editing
By the way, Iannucci has made my #1 spot of the year twice with only 3 films. “Death of Stalin” also scored my #1 and “The Personal Adventures of David Copperfield” also got in my top 10.
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So nbr is tomorrow right? AFI too? It has no bearing on the Oscars but it always gets me excited because it feels like the true beginning of awards season outside of festivals and regional critics groups… It doesn’t look like there’s a post up for it so I’ll ask here, what are people expecting?
I’m thinking The Fabelmans does reasonably well- they often go for the well liked film by the well liked director that seems like a player prior to awards season – Licorice Pizza, The Irishman, The Post, Hugo etc. Though they can go more weird (Her) or genre (Mad Max) or bad (Green Book) so I could make a case for anything. Though it would surprise me if it is EEAAO as they do tend to go for directors that are at least somewhat names already. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Tar love continues with them either.
NBR is the kiss of death for Best Picture…
Tár is so winning this…
(it would be hilarious if The Fabelmans or EEAAO wins it)
I do agree Tár has a pretty good chance at winning. It would be my number 2 prediction after Fabelmans
It’s not necessarily kiss of death – Green Book, Slumberous Millionaire and No Country for Old Men for example… And the winner usually (but not always) gets nominated for Oscar. I don’t think it’s a bad thing to win it just doesn’t really mean much as far as Oscars go.
kind of wishing they go totally off the rails and go for something like GdT’s Pinochio, Decision to Leave or Triangle of Sadness… but for what I recall, they go for popular and safer projects – among audiences – films, so The Fabelmans looks like the most likely choice. I’d say Tár and Women Talking have a strong shot, but EEAAO may not show up that much here, but will be in the top 10 and KHQ probably would continue his collection of precursors.
“That has been the trend in the era of the ranked-choice ballot, which is why I think they should abandon it.” There’s no evidence that Dune would have won BP if it had been a plurality vote. Yes it won a shitload of Oscars, but they were technical. There was no support for Dune to win from any of the non-technical guilds. CODA was the juggernaut. Other years the same thing.
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There’s fairly undeniable evidence that it wouldn’t have won, in fact…
Women Talking is nowhere near winning best pic. It’s gonna bomb at the BO
like Nomadland?
That was an OFF year. COVID times. This time you have EEOAO and Avatar in the mix
should I mention then, Moonlight?
Moonlight made money tho.
AFTER Awards, if I remember correctly. It was, the lowest b.o. ever for a winner, when it named Best Picture, also if I am not mistaken
You overlook one thing with the Avatar/Hurt comparison. If it weren’t for the special effects, Avatar would have been the boringest movie of all time. With them, it was just the boringest movie of 2009.
Hurt Locker on the other hand, was compelling from beginning to end and the last fifteen minutes or so allowed many of us to see for the very first time what a soldier might experience after coming home. (And it’s one that occurs quite a bit, if the first-hand literature I’ve read is representative of the experience)
Maybe Bigelow being a woman helped. Who cares? The right person won.
AMPAS has Top Gun Maverick as well if they want a really well directed populist movie.
Avatar’s problem is that actors hate mo’cap. So it wouldn’t have their support.
Also, neither is likely to get in Script and that’s now the alpha and omega of Picture wins. Until something breaks that stat.
I also think ”The Batman” is a ”really well-directed populist movie” worthy of Oscar attention. Matt Reeves’ direction was exemplary, but if the Academy couldn’t nominate Christopher Nolan for his ”Dark Knight,” there’s no chance for Reeves. Hot take: I actually think Paul Dano’s performance as the Riddler is more Oscar-worthy than his fine job in ”The Fabelmans.” Still, I hope there are Oscar voters who’ll recognize Greig Fraser’s cinematography and Michael Giacchino’s score. (And what is wrong with the People’s Choice Awards? They nominate Zoe Kravitz for Action Star, but not Robert Pattinson?)
Don’t forget James Chinlund for his amazing production design!
I agree. The Academy isn’t known for acknowledging superhero movies, but they did nominate Nathan Crowley for his art direction for ”The Dark Knight” (2009), and Anton Furst even WON the Oscar for ”Batman” (1989).
The three most infamous brinks job moments in Oscar history, for me? Parasite over 1917. Annie Hall over Star Wars, which set the tone for 45 years of needless bias against scifi films and intelligent blockbusters. But even now, the first ballot hall of shamer is still The Hurt Locker over Avatar for reasons that had nothing to do with what was on the screen and everything to do with a makeup call for 2003.
If there was no Return of the King that year, Lost in Translation would’ve swept those oscars and Sofia Coppola would be the first woman to direct a best picture and win director. Instead, jealous of Cameron’s success, the Academy had a mission to anoint his ex, Kathryn Bigelow as the Avatar-slayer and give away the Oscar store to her paint by numbers boxoffice flop. FULL STOP. Thusly, finally giving a woman best director and picture. Utterly despicable and shambolic.
It led to two calamitous things; a vote of no-confidence from TV viewers throughout the 2010s who ran away from future Oscar telecasts with Usain Bolt-like speed and ratings CRATERED. Worse, it led to little-seen arthouse films rule the Oscar roost to the point it became Indie Spirits 2.0. The less popular the flim with mainstream audiences, the likelier, more often than not, it would dominate each year’s show (see The Artist, 12 Years a Slave, Moonlight, the movie where nothing happened, aka Nomadland, CODA) as extreme examples of such a resounding rejection of commercial cinema.
If the social media reviews of TWOW beget critical acclaim which could see a north of $2b worldwide boxoffice, then the Academy would be ill-advised to embrace EEAAO or Banshees as it’s BP of the year. But make no mistake; Avatar 2 needs to hit a home run.
You know, there are a ton of us that loved Parasite, Annie Hall and Hurt Locker.
Plenty of Blockbuster movies have won Best Pic over the years. Time to calm your jets.
Binary thought will get you nowhere, young grasshopper (at least not in the real world. When discussing politics on social media sites I’m sure it comes in very handy. lol). The Hurt Locker was not “paint by numbers moon.” It was quite a good movie, if not my choice for Best Picture that year. And as someone who has long championed The Return of the King sweeping, poorly attempting to psychoanalyze the Academy (especially one with such a fascinating psychological profile as yours, Mr. Spend My Days On Mediate Talking Nonstop About Politics and Formerly Proud Troller of Right Wing Sites) as being jealous of Cameron’s success with Avatar 1 is laughable. And then of course the old Annie Hall and Parasite hate.
We get it . You don’t watch anything but blockbusters and as such except nothing but blockbusters to be rewarded year after year. Now, there’s nothing wrong with blockbusters. Just a few days ago I made a rather lengthy comment defending “mainstream” tastes at the Oscars bang recognized in the form of Top Gun: Maverick over what some might call pretentious art house films. But these are fine movies, completely capable of standing on their own merits, and the fact that they beat blockbusters (and your favorite, only-seen) films does not diminish their quality in the slightest.
At the end of the day, what the Oscars and Awards Daily are about are not who wins what or who defeats who; it’s about the celebration of cinema itself and the glorification of all films held dear in the hearts of all film lovers. I suggest you remember that next time you decide to log on and comment without collecting your unemployment check. And if not, we’ll, there’s always Valium lol
I have long felt that some of the over the top hostility to Woody Allen has less to do with the Mia nonsense but the fact Annie Hall beat Star Wars in 1977
All I know is that Mia Farrow is completely balls-to-the-wall cuckoo bananas crazy
To say the least.
My top 25 from 2009
1. Bright Star
2. A Single Man
3. Antichrist
4. A Serious Man
5. Crazy Heart
6. Coraline
7. The White Ribbon
8. The Road
9. The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo (original)
10. Watchmen
11. Inglourious Basterds
12. District 9
13. Mary and Max
14. Balibo
15. Moon
16. An Education
17. The Hurt Locker
18. Up
19. A Prophet
20. Two Lovers
21. Fish Tank
22. Air Doll
23. Broken Embraces
24. Samson & Delilah
25. The Lovely Bones
HM: Up in the Air, Blessed, Away We Go, The Secret of Kells
Cameron was My First Director, the Spielberg for me growing up, but I hope The Way of Water stands up a lot better on the small screen than Avatar did for me on revisit. There are other intently 3D films from that time like Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole which stand up better regardless of how it is viewed. Whilst you can leverage that cinematic event experience to drive box office, I just hope a better balance is struck because in 2D Avatar was a far cry from the rest of his work and such a compromised nakedly mediocre version.
You have Up In The Air as only an Honorable Mention???
You make Anna cry!
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To be fair it was a very good year for film
AVATAR didn’t make my Top 25 either.
Inglorious Bastards was the movie of 2009 for me. Hurt Locker was very good. I’m all for a Cameron win if he’s got the goods.
I never thought Hurt Locker should have won Best Picture , Director and Screenplay !Avatar should have won Picture , Bigelow Best Director and Tarantino Screenplay for Bastards !
I might be missing something obvious, but if ”Avatar: The Way of Water” involves performance capture and animation, why isn’t it Oscar-eligible as an Animated Feature?
Just looked up ”Avatar” (2009) at IMDB. I had forgotten that it racked up 9 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. And it won 3 of them: Cinematography, Visual Effects and Art Direction.
Part of me wonders if the mo-cap thing will piss off enough SAG members to deny Avatar 2 the win, which I suspect played a not so small part in Avatar 1’s loss 13 years ago.
On a happy note, I saw The Inspection today. It was an exhilerating mixed bag. I know that doesn’t make sense, but let me try.
I was impressed at how the movie maintained it’s edge-of-your-seat tone throughout. Scenes moved along and we truly never knew what would happen. On the negative side, some scenes were cut too short, not allowing us to exhale when the protagonist got through a sticky situation. Not being able to relish these moments, not even for a few seconds was a tad disappointing. But I guess that’s the point, he never was completely out of danger and could take that breath for himself. This even continued into and including the climax. Rarely in a movie like this do we need get that moment that allows us to cry happy tears. Not until the closing credits do we get to truly enjoy the main character’s success. I suspect some will like that. Over time, I will probably believe the correct decisions were made.
It’s a fine, fine film, though. Another one slips through the cracks, I guess.
I just saw ”The Inspection,” too. It’s written and directed by Elegance Bratton, and based on his own story as a young, gay black man who’s rejected by his mother and decides to join the Marines. Jeremy Pope and Gabrielle Union do some really good work, worthy of their Indie Spirit nominations, and Raul Castillo (”Looking”) is another plus. I really wanted to like it more, but the guy’s tribulations and hazing at boot camp seem familiar. I wish there were more of the gay son and his homophobic mother. Their scenes sizzled.
I thought there were sufficient scenes between the two, and it was smart to put one at the beginning and at the end. I don’t know what would would be improved if there were more. There are plenty of gay movies out there with parent/son/daughter storylines that are far more heartbreaking (Latter Days, for example).
You are right about the military scenes though. They never felt as immediate as they should have.
But altogether I think it’s a great addition to “gay cinema” in that it’s a complete story uncomplicated by outside factors. If the mother had seen what her son went through, would she have come around? I don’t know. It’s not that she didn’t see him as a man, it’s that he lived a life of sin.
That we never saw a glimpse of his “gay” life before the military was also a plus, I should add.
So if all the branches need to be passionate what happens to films like Moonlight? Should Barry Jenkins have thrown in a dance number so it could compete in Best Song and Best Sound? Smash the kid with the chair and then break into a hip-hop version of Over the Rainbow? Killer good stuff!
I’m super appreciative that you dismiss one of the most traumatic and most common events a woman can experience as a #MeToo moment. If one thing I’ve learned is true, women should not have a say in today’s Trumpian world.
“It is worth noting that Everything Everywhere All at Once has a social justice message as well — it’s about a conservative-ish parent accepting her gay daughter.”
Kind of an oversimplification, the gay daughter storyline wasn’t the totality of things, it was also Michelle Yeoh learning to accept her own flaws, as well as the flaws of her estranged husband and her own daughter’s flaws (no being gay wasn’t a flaw), and vice versa. Oddly enough, accepting flaws in oneself and others in your family is actually a pretty old fashioned message as “modern” moviemaking goes. Could be why that movie resonated with audiences more than just the gifs of 100 Michelle Yeohs that still get passed around. Also helped that Quan’s peformance was just that good.
Avatar mostly lost because a) Cameron isn’t that well liked and b) it’s script was AWFUL. Maybe time has healed wounds here? But it definitely appears Top Gun’s chances at BP just evaporated. And Hurt Locker finally made an Iraq film that didn’t bog down in the WMD politics without soft pedaling things either.
And for the thousandth time, I’m not seeing any evidence that Women Talking is a threat for anything more than Adapted Screenplay and maybe Claire Foy. But Glass Onion would technically be adapted screenplay, right?
Exactly, Woman Talking seems to have only slight adventage in best adapted screenplay category. Of course probably it will get noms in BP and BD but no real chances to win them. At least for now.
I get that takedown campaigns are sort of part of how this game is played, but it’s amusing to see them engaged in by people claming to hate them.