There is no clear frontrunner for Best Picture at the moment, nor for any other category, for that matter. That is a little unusual at this stage of the game, but perhaps to be expected after the late-breaking shake-up we saw last year. There does seem to be a recent trend of voters defying expectations with the film they ultimately choose. Parasite instead of 1917, CODA instead of The Power of the Dog. It’s probably better to head into the nominations phase without an actual frontrunner.
In every category there are at least two frontrunners that could win. So far, there doesn’t seem to be one ring to rule them all. That may change as other award groups name their winners and a real consensus begins to form.
One thing to note about Best Picture is the order of the awards has changed. This greatly impacted last year’s winner, I think, because once CODA won at the Producers Guild that propelled it towards a Best Picture win. It might have won anyway if the PGA went before the DGA.
The order used to be:
Globes
PGA
DGA
SAG
Oscar
Now it’s:
Globes
DGA
PGA
SAG
Oscar
The Producers Guild used to come in early. Now they weigh in late. That tells me they will be catching the buzz that will make them more likely to match Best Picture. The PGA and AMPAS are the only two groups that use the preferential ballot to decide their winners.
In general, in the era of the preferential ballot, films win either Director or Screenplay along with Picture. Sometimes they win both:
2009-The Hurt Locker – both
2010-The King’s Speech – both
2011-The Artist – both
2012-Argo – Screenplay (director not nominated)
2013-12 Years a Slave -Screenplay
2014-Birdman-both
2015-Spotlight-Screenplay
2016-Moonlight-Screenplay
2017-The Shape of Water-Director
2018-Green Book-Screenplay
2019-Parasite-both
2020-Nomadland-Director
2021-CODA-Screenplay
Now let’s look at ten years prior to that:
2008-Slumdog Millionaire-both
2007-No Country for Old Men-both
2006-The Departed-both
2005-Crash-Screenplay
2004-Million Dollar Baby -both
2003-ROTK-both
2002-Chicago-NEITHER
2001-A Beautiful Mind-both
2000-Gladiator–NEITHER
1999-American Beauty-both
1998-Shakespeare in Love-Screenplay
1997-Titanic-Director
1996-The English Patient-both
1995-Braveheart-Director
In the old days, you could win Best Picture without either Director or Screenplay if your film was a big enough spectacle. Like, for instance, let’s say Avatar: The Way of Water were to win now it might take many tech awards with it. But lately the reverse seems to be true. The tech awards tend to follow the director because it’s not decided with a preferential ballot. That is how you can tell that the ballot is muting the award somewhat and preventing sweeps. The big movies rarely win Picture but they often win Director.
We first have to figure out whether there will be a split vote between Picture and Director. If they really really really love a movie, it could get all three of the top awards, but that happens less and less frequently.
Right now, these movies have all four of the early nominations:
Only three times since 2009, when they first expanded the ballot, did films that hit all four of AFI, NBR, Globes and Critics Choice not go on to get a Best Picture nomination, and those were:
Mary Poppins Returns
If Beale Street Could Talk
Inside Llewyn Davis
Otherwise, those are your solid Best Picture nominees. So that means our top five are:
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything, Everywhere All at Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
That gives us five more potential slots. The next strongest indicator is when you match Globes and Critics Choice beyond the four. And when we apply that indicator, we get:
TAR
Elvis
Glass Onion
Babylon
Then we get one more, if we are going by previous charts. That’s risky, obviously. Things can always change. Movies can just appear from out of nowhere too, if they’re attached to a leading performance that might be winning, like Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side. But I think we more or less have our Best Picture lineup, give or take.
The films I think might push through, especially if they get a SAG ensemble nomination would be:
The Woman King – Viola Davis
RRR – Pure love and enthusiasm, provided the media starts to notice and it becomes a story.
Till – Danielle Deadwyler
She Said – Timely, and many Academy members are personally involved in the story.
Our frontrunners and challengers, such as they are, as follows:
Best Picture – Fabelmans, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Banshees of Inisherin
Challengers? – Avatar: The Way of Water, Top Gun: Maverick
Best Director – Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Challenger: The Daniels, Everything Everywhere; Martin McDonagh, Banshees, Jim Cameron, Avatar
Best Actor – Colin Farrell, Banshees
Challengers – Austin Butler, Elvis, Brendan Gleeson, The Whale
Best Actress – Michelle Yeoh, Everything; Cate Blanchett, TAR
Challenger – Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Best Supporting Actor – Ke Kuy Kwan, Everything; Brendan Gleeson, Banshees
Challenger – Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actress – No frontrunner, anyone’s game
Original Screenplay – The Banshees of Inisherin
Challenger – Everything, Everywhere; The Fabelmans
Adapted Screenplay – Women Talking
Challenger – None right now
And with that, my predictions
Best Picture:
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
TÁR
Women Talking
Babylon
Glass Onion
My next tier:
RRR
She Said
Empire of Light
Aftersun
Triangle of Sadness
All Quiet on the Western Front
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Bardo
Thirteen Lives
The Whale
Best Director:
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jim Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere
Todd Field, TAR
Alt: Sarah Polley, Women Talking, Rian Johnson, Glass Onion; Damien Chazelle, Babylon; Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King; Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front; S. S. Rajamouli, RRR
Best Actor:
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Bill Nighy, Living
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Alt: Will Smith, Emancipation; Diego Calva, Babylon; Adam Driver, White Noise
Best Actress:
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Alt: Olivia Colman, Empire of Light; Margot Robbie, Babylon
Supporting Actress:
Jessie Buckley, Women Talking
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Janelle Monáe, Glass Onion
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere
Alt: Angela Bassett, Wakanda Forever
Supporting Actor:
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Alt: Brad Pitt, Babylon; Micheal Ward, Empire of Light; Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Original Screenplay:
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All At Once
TÁR
Elvis
Alt: Armageddon Time, Babylon, Vengeance, Empire of Light
Adapted Screenplay:
Women Talking
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
The Son
Editing:
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inersherin
Alt: Elvis, Babylon
Cinematography:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Bardo
Alt: The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Empire of Light
Sound:
Top Gun: Maverick
Elvis
Babylon
Wakanda Forever
Avatar: The Way of Water
Alt: All Quiet on the Western Front
Production Design:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Babylon
Pinocchio
Alt: Bardo, The Fabelmans
Costumes:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Wakanda Forever
The Woman King
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Alt: Living
Visual Effects:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Batman
Alt: Everything Everywhere All at Once; RRR; Beast; Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Documentary Feature:
Goodnight Oppy
In Her Hands
Sidney
Fire of Love
Icarus: The Aftermath
Alt: Riotsville, USA; SR., Wildcat
The bottom line is this – whatever wins Best Picture will either win Screenplay or Director or both. By my list here, only two movies can win – The Fabelmans (with director) or The Banshees of Inisherin. If you think Everything, Everywhere is going to win, it has to take either or both of those categories.