Apologies to Clement Clarke Moore and to our readers in general…
‘Twas the Squad before Christmas, when all through the ranks,
Despite Elvis and Otto, there was no Tom Hanks.
The predictions were posted on the site with care
In hopes that Film Twitter soon quickly would share.
The Fabelmans rested asleep in their beds
While visions of hot dog fingers danced in our heads.
Everything Everywhere took over the top.
Might their momentum prove too strong to stop?
We expected Avatar to premiere with a clatter,
But now we’re wondering if box office will matter.
Away to the theater we flew like a flash.
Second viewings for some, goodbye to our cash!
Critics and guilds are just starting to show
Giving the luster of Oscar to those films below.
When, what to our wondering eyes should appear,
But Damien Chazelle with the biggest risk of his career!
With Babylon’s reviews divisive as heck,
It drops in the ranking, but only a speck.
Ready for insanity, his actors they came,
And he whistled, and shouted, and called them by name;
“Now, MARGOT! Now, DIEGO! Now, JEAN SMART and PITT!
On, JOVAN! On LI JUN! Look out for the shit!”
With three hours of debauchery from wall to wall,
Will Academy voters dash away, dash away, dash away all?
Director, it seems, remains quite the same,
With nearly everyone checking Spielberg by name.
Distant in second McDonagh does sit
With The Daniels in third at a distance to spit.
But then, in a twinkling, James Cameron did appear
To knock Sarah Polley to sixth place I fear.
Is there someone we’re missing? We’re looking around!
Perhaps RRR’s S.S. Rajamouli will astound!
With actor, Colin Farrell repeats at the top.
Fraser and Butler his streak they must stop.
Butler hosted the Xmas Saturday Night Live,
And that could keep his Oscar dreams alive.
With actress, Cate and Michelle are in a dead heat!
If this one could tie… boy that would be neat!
Some would think Cate has it sewed up like a bow,
But how can you deny the great Michelle Yeoh?
The only item on which we all agree
Is Ke Quan’s got this clean and free.
He’s run the gamut of the Supporting Actor race
Putting “Short Round” behind him with style and with grace.
Supporting Actress is really quite the mess
With little agreement when Squaddies assess.
One thing’s for certain, and this is to Neon,
Strike up that campaign for Dolly De Leon!
We spoke not a word, but went straight to our work,
And filled all the rankings with no one a jerk,
And laying our fingers aside of our nose,
And giving a nod, to the net this post flows.
Santa’s in his sleigh, and to the New Year we head
With popcorn and screeners to watch in our bed.
So thanks we exclaim, even to those with whom we fight,
HAPPY CHRISTMAS TO ALL, AND TO ALL A GOOD-NIGHT!
Best Picture
Best Director
Best Actress
Best Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor
Original Screenplay
Adapted Screenplay
Editing
Audience rate on RT is now 48%. It seems every day is a drop of 5%.
This is really bad.
So is Babylon this year’s Don’t Look Up with a 58% on Rottentomatoes?
No it’s heavens gate. Total disaster
It’s probably something worse. A new ‘Heaven’ s Gate’.
no…its a box office dumpster fire that will put Damien chazelle in directors jail for foreseeable future. He is no longer the boy wonder who came here to save cinema. He just got his a$$ handed to him.
Saw Empire of Light. It’s nice to think that life’s problems can be solved with movies and poetry rather than medicine and therapy. Maybe if I had seen Being There.
Cate the Great. At it again.
Can you hear the tide turning? The Fablemans is regrouping and coming on strong! It just won the Nevada Film Critics Association! No, it didn’t win Best Film (which I like to call the Most Overrated Award) but the most critical precursor. Best Production Design!
Next it will get Best Make Up and then The World!
The only AD prediction that feels like a long shot to me is Kerry Condon in supporting actress. Many Oscar predictors don’t even have her in the top five.
Not sure where you’re looking, but on Gold Derby, she’s in nearly every single expert’s predictions. She is ranked #1 in many predictions as well.
https://www.goldderby.com/awardshows/expert-predictions/oscars-nominations-2023-predictions/supp-actress/sort/recent/
she could easily WIN
If she wins, Farrell does not… https://media4.giphy.com/media/3oxRmGkC835B3TkVNe/giphy.gif
Gorgeous. Truly divine. Thank you.
I Wanna Dance with Somebody
53% RT (17 reviews)
54% MC (17 reviews)
So much can still happen between now and the night before the Oscars.
I just noticed that Spielberg hasn’t won anything except NBR thus far. Even beyond The Fabelmans not getting best picture wins at the regional critics’ groups thus far, isn’t it slightly bizarre that the absolute frontrunner in the directing category has won the category almost nowhere? Instead Daniels are clearly in lead with 14 director wins, with Todd Field being second with 3 wins.
Looking ahead to the guilds, are the Daniels ineligible for any of these because they aren’t guild members?
I don’t think DGA eligibility is contingent on being a guild member (for example I remember some discussion in relation to Tarantino not being a DGA member until some point in the 2010s, yet he was nominated for Pulp Fiction). WGA ineligibility is of course very possible but then again, McDonagh might not be eligible either (he wasn’t for Three Billboards) so unless for example The Fabelmans wins (by the way, is Spielberg a WGA member?) and is a contender in the category in general, I’m not sure whether it matters all that much
The WGA thing definitely could muddy predictions if there are outlier winners because of eligibility. Although this year I suspect it’s SAG/PGA as the main barometers again.
I’ve noticed it too. The Fabelmans is probably not even winning director, let’s be real! Sad, but there it is…
Happy Christmas to Sasha, Clarence & ALL.
Celebrated by a beautiful piece with many lovely parts but I especially enjoyed this one:
“Some would think Cate has it sewed up like a bow
But how can you deny the great Michelle Yeoh?”
That’s where I am because beyond prediction, Cate’s work is my pick but indeed, the great Michelle CAN NOT BE DENIED.
Between now and March 11 (the day before Oscar night), anything can happen at this point. I still maintain that it’s anyone’s game especially when it comes to Best Picture. Just when we thought The Power of the Dog last year was an undisputed critical juggernaut winning Best Picture after Best Picture after Best Picture, CODA came along and proved victorious on Oscar night.
But if I had to take a guess, it may be something like…
Best Picture?
Avatar 2? (No way, NOT HAPPENING!)
Babylon? (No! Too divisive.)
The Banshees of Inisherin? (Maybe, unless it’s too much of a downer.)
Elvis? (No, it’s dead in the water here!)
Everything Everywhere All at Once? (Maybe but has so many obstacles to overcome.)
The Fablemans? (An Oscar’s w3t dr3@m, but will it go the distance and win?)
RRR? (If it does get nominated… no.)
TAR? (Nah, too cold!)
Top Gun: Maverick? (Too… cool?)
Women Talking? (No!)
Director? (Spielberg vs. The Daniels [I don’t see Jim Cameron being king of the world here!])
Actor? (Fraser vs. Farrell)
Actress? (Blanchett vs. Yeoh)
Supporting Actor (Quan, ALL THE WAY!)
Supporting Actress (So far, any girl’s game: Condon vs. Hso vs. Buckley vs. Monae)
Adapted Screenplay? (Could be Sarah Polley’s to lose for WT)
Original Screenplay? (TBOI vs EEAAO)
Animated Feature? (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio)
Documentary Feature? (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed)
International Feature? (RRR vs Decision to Leave)
Cinematography? (TGM)
Costume Design? (Elvis)
Film Editing? (EEAAO vs TGM)
Makeup & Hairstyling? (The Whale, or EEAAO)
Original Score? (Babylon vs. GDTP)
Original Song? (TGM)
Production Design? (Ummm… Avatar 2?)
Sound? (TGM)
Visual Effects? (Avatar 2 vs EEAAO)
Anyone with a right mind, knew Dog was not winning BP….especially if you were following industry awards, not critics.
People place too much stock in critics and regional stuff….sure it can help, but industry awards do what they want and don’t care what critics think.
You never know with these industry awards groups because once in a blue moon, they do step out of their comfort zone and give their top prizes to a film that is completely out of the box (ala Birdman, Moonlight, The Shape of Water and Parasite).
True but in those years for the films you mentioned there was a strong competition where it was back and forth between their competitors before they won Oscar. Last year it was clear that CODA was a force to be reckoned with winning PGA, WGA, SAG. The only thing we were sure on was Campion winning director and that Dog was weak in BP because CODA was coming in strong.
Avatar: Way of Water snagged $18.5m yesterday; $168m domestic, will it flirt with a billion by Christmas night globally?
Wow I really didn’t think Babylon would bomb this hard
Chazelle’s ego just got big after Whiplash and La La Land.
Quan’s win is going to be one of the most popular ones in years.
I’m sorry but anyone who has Fablemans as number one surely must have their head not only in the sand, but in the nitric acid as well. The movie is terrible! (See my review in the Tom Cruise post). I really don’t understand how people I respect fall for it.
In summary, none of the actors ever react to the other actors. The scenes are simple and you can easily read every intent of every performance, there is no subtlety, there is nothing to discern.
The scene I was waiting for never materialized. It would have been a magical scene if Sam would have asked his mother to score one of his movies and play the piano along with the film at one of the public showings. Imagine a fifteen minute sequence, in which the two are at the piano and she’s asking what he wants and he responds and then she responds with a tune of some sort and on and on. It could have been breathtaking and emotionally fulfilling, and the scene of the year in all of film.
But no.
This is what happens when you’re lazy and have no vision. Pundits are by and large lemmings.