Happy New Year, we’re finally here.
After (most of) the guild nominations. After the BAFTA shortlists. After the Golden Globes. After the holiday box office. After the Critics Choice Awards. We finally have the major bodies weighing in on the 2023 Oscar race, and the Oscar Squad’s final 2023 Oscar predictions are shaping up. Right off the bat, the most fascinating, seismic shift in predictions comes in the Supporting Actress race where Angela Bassett’s back-to-back Golden Globe and Critics Choice wins (one likely influenced by the other) plus SAG nomination catapults her from seventh place to the frontrunner status. Additionally, Stephanie Hsu’s SAG nomination gave the Squad faith that the Academy would recognize both supporting performances from Everything Everywhere All At Once. She returns to the list after dropping off completely when critics’ groups nearly completely ignored her. Who suffers the most from this new momentum? Jessie Buckley and Claire Foy who both once appeared to be frontrunners for nominations but now drop down to eighth and ninth place respectively.
What a difference a month makes in the Oscar race.
Fortunately, this is a far more exciting Oscar race than last year. Of the major races, really only Best Supporting Actor seems sewed up at this point with Ke Huy Quan’s continued dominance of predictions backed by major win after major win. Other than that, the focus has narrowed onto around six or seven contenders in the non-Best Picture categories with the notable exception of Best Cinematography, which seems wider than ever before as The Batman makes its first appearance on the charts following a ASC guild mention.
Speaking of Best Picture, Everything Everywhere, The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin, Top Gun: Maverick, TAR, Elvis, and Avatar are all considered locked by the Oscar Squad. Beyond that, Women Talking, Babylon (despite poor box office returns and presumably based on craft branch strength), and All Quiet on the Western Front (based on a tremendous showing on both the initial Academy and BAFTA shortlists) seem most likely to round out the top ten. But anything’s possible with a The Whale or a Black Panther potentially overtaking one of the lower tier films.
At any rate, here are the Oscar Squad’s final predictions before next week’s 2023 Oscar nominations.
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actor