Tuesday morning Oscar nominations drop. They’ll be available everywhere, via livestream. We’ll make sure to post that streaming link early in the AM. I haven’t finished watching all of the shorts. I’ve almost made it through the animated category, well enough to spitball five of the best. Oscar predictions are often made or broken with the shorts. The better you do on those, the higher your score overall.
People who do well with Oscar predictions in unpredictable years like this one tend to be people whose personal taste aligns with the Academy’s. In that case, you’re likely to do very well. The trick is figuring out which films hit and didn’t. We have no idea, for instance, whether Babylon is going to land. Does Black Panther: Wakanda Forever make it in? Just how much will they love Top Gun: Maverick — enough for Director and Screenplay, maybe Best Actor? Or not at all and just barely Best Picture?
Conversely, if you don’t like a movie and you don’t predict it, that can sometimes hurt your chances, obviously. I am particularly undone if I have a blind spot to a film that others seem to like much more than I do. Such is the case with Triangle of Sadness, which many pundits have throughout their predictions, for Best Picture and even Best Director. That one is hard for me to wrap my mind around, so the only reason I’d be predicting it is because I was copying them.
Figuring out what films are going to be on voters’ minds and why is usually how to be a good Oscar predictor. Sometimes this intel can be gathered by talking to voters. We can use stats, which are sometimes reliable. But they can be deceptive, too, like the recent 14 BAFTA nomination haul for All Quiet on the Western Front. Had the BAFTA noms come out before the Oscar ballot deadline, there is no question it would dominate. Consensus builds the more people put their support behind certain films. But it has to start with a big nomination score like that. We don’t know if Oscar voters will independently single out the film.
There is likely to be a lot of anger when the nominations come down, I figure, particularly where women are concerned. The thing about that, though, if there isn’t a strong consensus around one nominee it’s hard to push them into the race. For all of those trying to push for Sarah Polley, there is an equal number pushing for Charlotte Wells and Gina Prince-Bythewood. That, of course, just means they split up their own voting block. I do not know whether that will be the case this year (no one does), but just putting it out there.
Erik Anderson has posted his final Oscar predictions one by one, category by category, with the latest being Best Director. I imagine Best Picture is coming soon. Scott Feinberg’s are here. Clayton Davis’ are here.
And, of course, you know that Gold Derby‘s predictions are all up on their site.
When it comes to years with 10 nominees for Best Picture (as opposed to five, or the variable number between five and 10), we know we aren’t going to be in a situation where there might be eight or nine. We know they have to put 10 in there, so in a sense that makes it easier. We just don’t know which of the films on the cusp will get in. I have found that they tend to be pushed in with three factors: 1) they are tied to an acting performance (The Blind Side, Philomena), 2) they are critically acclaimed and pushed by critics (Drive My Car), and 3) they are there because it took a village to get them there (Selma).
All three of these types of stragglers usually don’t come in the race with a lot of nominations. Usually you can tell how popular a movie is if it hits many different categories. If it only lands in Best Picture and Acting, obviously it was mostly favored by actors. They have a big enough branch in the Academy to drive a movie toward a Best Pic nomination.
In the case of Drive My Car, there had to be some support from directors and writers to get that movie in the Best Picture race. The ones with multiple nominations across the board, it should go without saying, are in the race because most of the membership put them there.
2019 was last year where Best Picture contenders were strong up and down ballot. After that, after COVID and the “Great Awokening,” Best Picture contenders got much smaller and there wasn’t as much down ballot action. This year, though, it feels like things are almost back to 2019 levels. We might have several Best Picture contenders with lots of nominations. Depending on how All Quiet lands with the Academy, we could be looking at some films with 10+ nods each.
I think it’s likely The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All at Once will lead with multiple nominations across all categories.
With that said, let’s get to it.
Best Picture
Safe:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
TÁR
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
Risky bets:
Women Talking (rallying cry from Frances McDormand)
The Whale
The films on the bubble for me include:
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Angela Bassett as frontrunner)
RRR, Babylon
Best Director:
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere
Todd Field, TÁR
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun Maverick
Alt: Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front; Jim Cameron, Avatar
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Bill Nighy, Living
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Alt: Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, TÁR
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Ana De Armas, Blonde
Alt: Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans, Andrea Riseboough, To Leslie
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere
Hong Chau, The Whale
Jamie Lee Curtis, EEAAO
Alt: Janelle Monae, Glass Onion; Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brad Pitt, Babylon
Alt: Val Kilmer, Top Gun Maverick; Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans; Micheal Ward, Empire of Light; Anthony Hopkins, Armageddon Time
Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
TÁR
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Menu
Alt: Triangle of Sadness; Aftersun; Elvis
Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Living
The Whale
Alt: She Said
Editing
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Cinematography
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Empire of Light
Elvis
Sound
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
The Batman
Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Babylon
The Fabelmans
Costume Design
Elvis
Babylon
Wakanda Forever
The Woman King
Everything Everywhere All At Once
International Feature
Germany, All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, Argentina, 1985
South Korea, Decision to Leave
Belgium, Close
Mexico, Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths
Makeup and Hairstyling
Elvis
The Whale
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Original Score
Women Talking
Babylon
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Fabelmans
The Banshees of Inisherin
Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Song
Top Gun: Maverick
RRR
Wakanda Forever
GDT’s Pinoccio
Till
Animated Feature
GDT’s Pinocchio
Marcell the Shell with Shoes On
Turning Red
Puss in Boots
Wendell and Wild
Doc Feature
All the Beauty and Bloodshed
Descendent
Fire of Love
All That Breathes
Navalny
Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, The Fox and the Horse
An Ostrich Told Me
New Moon
Save Ralph
My Year of Dicks
Live Action Short
An Irish Goodbye
The Red Suitcase
Le Pupille
Warsha
Almost Home
Doc Short
Elephant Whisperers
The Flagmakers
38 at the Garden
How Do You Measure a Year
Nuisance Bear
Charts (courtesy of Marshall Flores)
