2023 Oscar Predictions: Oscar Squad Makes Its First Post-Nominations Ranking

Well, it’s been a week.

When the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences announced the 2023 Oscar nominations last Tuesday, no one would have expected the firestorm to come from the Best Actress race. Andrea Riseborough’s grassroots campaign for her Indie Spirit-nominated role in To Leslie brought her a first-time Oscar nomination ahead of several bigger, better funded campaigns. Naturally, there was a lot of online conversation around the surprise, and the Academy held some kind of review of her nomination and the process around it. The nomination will stand (they were never going to take it away), but it’s interesting that all of the press feels like the best Oscar campaign in decades. Actors and other artists seemed to rally around her. Will that translate into final round number one votes?

Making our first post-nominations Oscar Squad rankings, no one on the team thought it would bring her a win over Michelle Yeoh or Cate Blanchett. We won’t have any major movements in the acting races until the Screen Actors Guild awards in late February, but that won’t tell us how strong Riseborough may be as she’s not nominated there. It’s unlikely that she’ll win, of course, but it will be an interesting footnote to watch for on Oscar night.

On the predictions front, we’ve got a surprise for you. We’ve read your comments on previous posts, and for the first time in Oscar Squad history, we’re providing predictions across all 23 categories. So, enjoy! We’ll next weigh in following the DGA and BAFTA Awards in just over two weeks.

Until then…