It’s rough being the frontrunner, especially when there is a whole month to go before voting even starts. This time last year, at least for me, I was in “I don’t know” territory, which I’ve been for a while now since the Oscars really started to change, around 2016.
Last year I did not think The Power of the Dog was going to win. I thought the movie was not accessible enough and that it was Netflix and that the Academy was not ready to give its Best Picture award to a streaming platform. But as it turned out, they were — if you made them an offer they couldn’t refuse. The less you knew about traditional Oscar history, the easier it was to imagine CODA winning. Oddly enough, the more you knew about recent Oscar history, the faster your mind could accept the new reality. Not only was CODA a sweet movie that made people feel good, it was also a movie — in the minds of today’s voters — that did some good in the world, by representing the deaf community.
Gold Derby has almost everyone on board with Everything, Everywhere All at Once. There are a few resisters. One person has The Fabelmans, another has Banshees. One has Top Gun: Maverick. But from a stats perspective, only one movie CAN win and that’s EEAAO. So why fight it?
Still, the question remains: CAN any other film build a strong enough consensus to win? We have to wait for the major guilds, but if I was going to make the case for the alternatives, these are the cases I would make:
(Keep in mind that around this time last year, I probably wouldn’t have even considered CODA as one of the movies that could win. When the momentum shifts in a different direction, it usually happens because a movie wins the last few all-important guild awards)
The Fabelmans
Steven Spielberg is kind of a unicorn in Hollywood. He has given us the magic of the movies, comfort, and escapism. Some (most) of his efforts were successes. A few were failures. Spielberg is the guy who made Jurassic Park, the highest grossing film of 1993, the same year he made Schindler’s List, which won the Best Picture Oscar.
How did this middle-class suburban kid become the guy who made those kinds of movies a whole genre unto themselves and do it consistently for four decades? The Fabelmans attempts to answer to this question. Though he gets his artist’s eye from his mother and his discipline from his father, none of that fully explains how Spielberg became one of the greatest directors in American history. Not until the final scene.
In the same way Rosebud is set aflame at the end of Citizen Kane as a simple answer to a seemingly complex mystery, Spielberg delivers us his Rosebud: the horizon line. Irascible old John Ford tells him that the horizon line has to either be high or low. Anything else lacks adequate symbolic perspective.
And as his story comes to a close — after everything he’s just told us about who he is, where he came from, the people who shaped his life — he breaks the fourth wall and winks back at us. “You see,” he seems to say, “it wasn’t all that complicated. It’s just a matter of where you put the camera.”
Speaking for myself, I don’t need much more than that to hand the prize to the maestro. What wouldn’t I hand him at this point? He helped shape my whole childhood and did nothing but give back to us for over forty years, taking us through our past, our present, our future. Take all of the awards, Mr. Spielberg. You have earned them.
Top Gun: Maverick
The second possible alternative is what is actually deemed to be the Film of the Year by almost anyone’s measure, except those of us who exist inside this insulated, isolated bubble we call the Oscar race. It’s fast becoming fashion week or the Tony Awards, with little relevance to anyone else. But why wouldn’t Top Gun: Maverick actually be worthy as the year’s winner? Well, some will say because it doesn’t have a Best Actor nomination and it wasn’t nominated for BAFTA. Okay, fine. But those seem like stupid reasons, don’t they? They’re just another way of saying these voters aren’t fully on board. I’m still dumb enough to think Best Picture of the Year should really mean that. I’ll never get over this:
Top Gun: Maverick is the kind of movie that 20 years ago probably wouldn’t have even been nominated, no matter how good it is. But it is also like Jaws was in 1975. It’s THAT movie. It’s the movie that re-awakened people bring them back to movies in theaters. The Oscars have never quite been able to make that leap from artsy movies or small character dramas to action movies or genre movies. But why not? If the industry is very nearly a grease stain where a once mighty empire once stood, what is so bad about rocking out with your cock out? Just once? Come on, people, what’s it gonna take?
Okay, kidding aside, I actually love this movie. Can you tell? I’m not surprised it won at the AARP’s Movies for Grownups awards because that’s just what it is. It’s a movie for people who remember MOVIES. I saw Jaws over 40 times in the movie theater and I probably would have seen Top Gun: Maverick that many times too. It’s just a pleasurable experience. They could do worse than this movie representing 2023.
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Banshees of Inisherin is the film with all of the necessary stats to actually mount a challenge to Everything, Everywhere All at Once, because it’s actor-driven and the Academy is ruled by actors. If you believe actors are the best visual effect, or perhaps writing too, this is the movie that should win. It’s similar to Everything Everywhere in that it must hit exactly right to be fully appreciated. For me, it landed in just the right spot between sweet, sad, joyful, and dark. Martin McDonagh has spent his entire career contemplating human existence. Long enough to know that our worth must ultimately be measured by two things: 1) niceness, to each other and to animals, and 2) the art we create.
He makes the argument beautifully that without these essentials, we’re lost. Each of the two main characters represents two facets of the human experience. But one can’t really exist without the other. Take art away from the Brendan Gleeson character and he might as well chop off his fingers. Take niceness away from the Colin Farrell character and he’s lost the only redeeming trait he had. Each must sacrifice something to keep things harmonious. McDonagh is probably himself each of these two characters and struggles with both.
What really makes The Banshees of Inisherin so good, though, is simply the brilliance of the ensemble cast. Not a weak link in the bunch.
All Quiet on the Western Front
We’ve seen plenty of war movies recently in the Oscar race, both World War I and World War II, including Sam Mendes’ masterpiece, 1917. Yet someone Edward Berger has found another way to depict a war that comes off original. But what might drive the win this year, perhaps at BAFTA, maybe here, is similar to what might drive Top Gun — we’re gearing up for war. We’re actually fighting a proxy war right now in Ukraine. We’re not that far, probably, from another world war. If we do end up fighting a world war it will likely be more like WWI – which was ultimately a prelude to WWII. Our world is becoming more unstable as we speak.
But that wouldn’t be the thing that drive this film to victory. Rather, it would have to be appreciation for the pure mastery of the work: the directing, the editing, the acting, the score. It is as powerful a war movie as has ever been made. Someday, in looking back at these nominees, that film will tower over the competition.
TÁR
Todd Field’s film is, I think, maybe the most important of the ten nominees. That’s because it is lifting up the veneer of the status quo and revealing a daring truth about the circumstances we’re living through. It’s the first film so far to even go near the idea of “cancel culture,” at least in the modern era. There have been many great films about those eras of the past, of course. But people are so afraid now they dare not go there. It isn’t that Todd Field has made any kind of indictment of our current, regrettable moment, but he’s dancing at the edge of the volcano. This may not be a movie that many people are going to push to the top of their ballots. But all the same, it does have heft in this race in all the right places, led by Cate Blanchett’s extraordinary performance.
All of these films, save Top Gun: Maverick, are original screenplays. All will be competing in many of the same categories. Screenplay, Director, and Picture are all highly competitive this year. Unless, of course, it’s all over anyway and Everything Everywhere All at Once is just too inventive, too successful, and too much of a zeitgeist movie to deny. It has the most nominations, a $70 million domestic haul, nominations across all of the major guilds — how can it lose?
The rest of the films in the race don’t seem like they can win. Is there a CODA among them? Is Women Talking CODA? Can Austin Butler drive Elvis to a Best Picture win? Can Avatar come back and finally win? Doubtful. The year’s Oscar race is going to tell a story. It is going to decide the future of the Oscars. It will either make them bigger or make them smaller. It will either prove that they belong on network television or that they’re edging even closer to being a niche market.
It will decide if the Academy should stick with 10 or go back to five nominees. Maybe settle in the middle, at six.
Whatever wins will likely win either Director or Screenplay but likely not both. Maybe both. Maybe neither.
Whatever happens, it is going to come down to the big guilds and the consensus that builds like a gathering storm out of them.
What do you think?
I feel like such a weenie that I’m rooting against EEAAO, a movie I liked; a silly, sweet, wonderfully ambitious comedy. And for what? A movie about the most successful and influential filmmaker of my or my parents lifetime, but what can I say? I think The Fabelmans kinda improves upon everything EEAAO tries to do. The family drama, the use of time and parallel universes (rendered through film and home movies by Spielberg), and the optimism of how we can not only be our best selves but how we can make everyone around us better. It’s the darkness and humanity that allows the light to shine so brightly. If nothing else, I can only expect time to be kinder to it than the Academy likely will.
I don’t root against EEAAO cause it protects the Oscars from trash like Women Talking and the Fabelmans. Better EEAAO than either of these dull mediocrities that pretend they have something to say but don’t.
EEAAO will probably win the Oscars. But in the one category that truly matters…Standing the Test of Time…there is a clear winner. And that winner is Tar. Years from now people will roll their eyes about any movie beating Tar the way the roll their eyes about Oliver! beating 2001 in 1968. (And I am a person who loves Oliver! by the way.)
I’ve watched Tar twice now and I will be watching it many more times. It is a true work of art. Every tiny word, sound, gesture, image has a purpose and a place. The film is not just about a woman brought down by cancel culture. It is about power, art, humanity, cruelty, guilt, love, hate, pretension, sex and redemption…just for starters. It is constructed like a masterwork by Bach or Beethoven. This is a movie that requires multiple viewings. It is rewarded by close scrutiny. It asks questions but provides no easy answers. I’ve read that Martin Scorsese has said that Tar has renewed his faith in the future of film. The name/title “Tar” is an obvious anagram for art. And that is exactly what it is. Art.
Pardon my stupidity, is there no more “like” thumbs up button or edit option ?
Temporarily disabled, John.
But the more nice sweet readers who mention that they miss it, maybe the sooner we can get it back.
Oh, I missssssssssssssssssssss it, Ryan!
mmm… I actually kind of like it this way? It was becoming somehow a popularity contest rather than actual film conversation… it’s nice to see that some people liked what you said, but I rather have real interaction and conversation… pats in the back, are nice, but when I write here I just share my view… I don’t even promote my IG account, in the same way, it’s just a recollection of what I saw and what I thought of that, I have zero intentions to become an influencer or the like…
I just give my view and I am happy to see others and discuss about it. I don’t know, maybe I am old fashioned… never liked the thumbs up or down for a review or opinion, it just simplifies too much
I miss it 🙂
I miss it, and I hope I qualify as nice and sweet…I may be a fangirl, but I do try to not be an asshole.
Miss it, Ryan. Bring back the Thumbs Up! 🙂
ALL QUIET ON THE WESTERN FRONT is brilliant and one of the best war films I have ever seen but it clearly will not win best pic. I do understand BAFTA’s enthusiasm. Out of the lot I have seen, it should win if the Academy was about quality but it ain’t.
To answer the question of the title, of course, anything can happen, we don’t have the guilds yet. And The Banshees of Inisherin, TÁR and The Fabelmans (in that approximate order) have even a pretty solid chance. Let’s not declare winners early, things rarely go well after people choose to do that
Let put EEAAO into perspective shall we?
-virtually NO central character definition that truly stands out and ANY sincerity even within a comedy in acting is LOST in myriad of erraric cuts and intercuts and disruptions. Not ONE of the characters are memorable remotely in any way CODA was.. even then …there bwen other best pic winners with more renowned relatable acting suppirting acting character perfornances .
– EEAAO ia NOT highest growwing foreign dilm in theatres parasite i think above that ecen crouching tiger lead way globally oveerall.. i think it time we start really challenging even at the US box office raise the bar further esp given excwssive decade plus of foreivn addiction that awards season keep pumping their and hypervrntilating fireign film industry ego with… thry now have backing and capacity to do NO LESS than 100 million at box office so regardlwss of EEAAO budget, it is overblown in it success relative to precedent.
– EEAAO is example of film efiting gone wrong… almost if bot every oscar winner in ita history has gone to film wgee editing ENHABCES the narratuve struxture NOT defeacts and cionfuses it core objective.
– for oscar voters with long memoriws tgeir really is potential most powerful voice they speak against way they do it is way they VOTE… against EEAAO almost if not every oscar winner has momentum built in it driven by strength if films central narratice EEAAO shatters idea if narrative in million pieces and never knows till very end how to bring audiences with it namely number oscar voters to acceot it inline with orthodoxg of central narrative structues that not disrupted ad nauseum.. even the mattix had strong narratice struxture even 2001 a spacw oddysey , gravity, etc…
So on these principles there are BIG risks at stake for oscar at point no retutn if at least worst case scenario thwse films dont wi listed 5 to 1 in order of least worse case to best case scenario dor future welkveing of oscar :
5. TAR
4. Bsnshees of Inisherin
3. The Fablemans
2. Elvis
1. TOP GUN MAVERICK
Any of these 5 will dramatically improve oscars prospects for more assuredness in next oscar years and it future to follow in reaquiru g trust in coee demograohic that been lifebliid of acady forever.. the further dosn 5 to 1 list better the outlook for oscar …
But it just depends do more tradirional voters have guts to vote with what thry believe in or convictions against tide of sociological pathologically inclined ultra passive aggressive type vote that academy unjystly let in to run the show ??
Aaron, EEAAO is not a foreign film. It’s an American film made by American directors set in America speaking American English.
and yet….regardless of that majority of cast is not product of main hollywood…tell me people what other films BROADLY is filmmaker that could be best picture winner done? we in business i see based on recent trends of newbie filmmakers get eeasy road in preference over likes of Ridley Scott, David Fincher, Quentin Tarantino……THAT JUST the tip of the iceberg…so just because activist lunacy is all rage cos academy enables them justifies all of sudden far far lesser known filmmaker than likes these ones winning? i dont think so..
and further how many people TRULY CARE about EEAAO winning relative to the contenders? iut does not change my view one eyota…academy can best start reconnecting with mainstream or lose them forever embracing eeaao is NOT mainstream regardless of it meagre box office…yea i not hard on it i fair on it..
TIME TO RAISE THE BAR for lesser known filmakers and actors more than their fair share supported through academy changes i not against support for them but i AGAINST THE SCALES TIPPED EXCESSIVELH heavily in their favour.
ONE THING that could well work against EEAAO winning however: the academy usually like to spread things round NOT HAVE 2 foreign dominated films filmmakers are hybrid american – asian they are NOT proper hollywood products nobody talked of daniel kwan until AFTER eeaao took place. oter filmakers do hard yards try swing academy embrace them.. not it seems the newbies…where justice in that?
but EEAAO will still rightly be percieved as fringe hollywood at BEST not only that , but frankly..PARASITE won only 2 yrs ago!
Oscar voters have long memories i think that still stands anyway..
What a joke oscar have become if EEAAO a film that tries toi stand for everything only to stand for hardly anything at all.. and meaning and power of redemption of trust and love between mother and daugfhter is all but lost…
“NOT HAVE 2 foreign dominated films filmmakers are hybrid american – asian they are NOT proper hollywood products”
This says EVERYTHING we need to know about you.
1. You are misinformed. Your statement is not factual.
2. Yeah, we see you.
“NOT HAVE 2 foreign dominated films filmmakers are hybrid american – asian they are NOT proper hollywood products”
This says EVERYTHING we need to know about you.
1. You are misinformed. Your statement is not factual.
2. Yeah, we see you.
you think you know but you REALLY don’t …to presume and misrepresent is SHEER arrogance on your part….oh i far from misinformed but we done hear
If you don’t mind me asking, how come you never engage in actual discussions with the people who attempt to engage your arguments?
This rant makes me even more excited for all the EEAAO wins.
All of the characters are incredibly memorable. These characters are beloved by millions. Every review and YouTube reaction video goes on about how it makes everyone cry with joy. Your repeated hateful comments only make it and it’s fan’s love stronger.
although I didn’t hate it, in fact finding it charming in some places, in all honesty many should be able to beat it.
I think it’s all EEAAO the rest of the way. The question now is how much momentum can it gain on its way to a potential sweep.
If I could have one wish granted this season, it’s that Women Talking is CODA.
I do not follow how EEAAO fits the zeitgeist, what exactly is it that I am missing?
https://media3.giphy.com/media/WiCO2uZK05Klc1d28q/giphy.gif
https://media2.giphy.com/media/l4FGEfJQW0e6rwYne/giphy-downsized-medium.gif
https://media4.giphy.com/media/2wNXyj7fM0SfC/giphy-downsized-medium.gif
One important distinction: CODA had a locked acting win in Troy Kotsur (plus ultimately won screenplay as well). Actors still tend to drive the results.
I know, but at least Women Talking has SAG ensemble–showing support from the actors.
I don’t think this will happen, but it’s my dream. 🙂
It could happen! CODA was the ultimate stat buster, though Women Talking taking BP would take that title. If it were to win SAG Ensemble (longshot at this point) and WGA Adapted, it could potentially pull a Spotlight at the Oscars by winning Adapted Screenplay and Picture.
One can only hope! https://media3.giphy.com/media/fBKwdaBSWEjo4/giphy.gif
First Tier (movies with no significant misses at the Oscars):
The Banshees of Inisherin – GG winner
Everything Everywhere All at Once – CC winner
TÁR – Trifecta (NSFC + NYFCC + LAFCA) winner
==============================================
Second Tier (movies with significant misses at the Oscars):
The Fabelmans (1): missed Editing
Triangle of Sadness (2): missed Acting + Editing
Top Gun: Maverick (2): missed Directing + Acting
Elvis (2): missed Directing + Screenplay
All Quiet on The Western Front (3): missed Directing + Acting + Editing
Women Talking (3): missed Directing + Acting + Editing
Avatar: The Way of Water (4): missed Directing + Screenplay + Acting + Editing
I do believe that EEAAO will win big at the Oscars (including Best Picture and Director), but the real thread might be if those Academy members who can´t copy with the extravagant style, the hectic pacing or the confusing plot are rallying behind one specific opponent. I don´t see such a clear opponent since we have several strong candidates like “Banshees”, “Tar”, “Fabelmans” or even “Top Gun” that have their supporters. I wished it would be “Banshees” to prevail in the end but I don´t believe it has the buzz respecitively is the film enough people talk about.
On a preferential ballot, they don’t necessarily need to rally around one specific opponent.
I think if Banshees performs well at the BAFTAS it could then go on to be true competition for BP. I can also see Banshees being in voters top 3.
I’m coming around to how Tar can be a real threat for Best Picture as a great piece and Blanchett’s performance (which is still the favorite for Best Actress right now) carries a fine film that voters who don’t want EEAAO or something like TG Maverick can lean toward.
As a TAR fan, I really wish it doesn’t win Best Picture at the Oscars. This movie doesn’t need a target on its back for the years to come.
God help the one who wins…
After Parasite’s very worthy win for Best Picture, anything is possible. I love that. This year’s crop of nominees is especially strong, but I’m on the EEAAO bandwagon and I really hope it goes all the way!
no sasha, just no…
and even if it were to win. the public would still hate the oscars, just as much. 😉
How do you figure? CODA is one of the most anodyne, traditional “Oscar Movies” I’ve seen in years. If it had come out in the ’80s or ’90s (the exact same movie, shot for shot), it would have made $100 million at the box office and been a strong Oscar contender.
Rain Man was a sweet movie that made people feel good, and it represented a disability that was not well understood at the time. Forrest Gump is a sweet movie that made people feel good. It’s very weird that you’re acting like this is a new kind of movie for the Oscars to award.
As for the contenders:
Everything Everywhere All At Once – I loved it. I’ve talked to some people who didn’t, and…I get it. The style just doesn’t work for everyone. It doesn’t make me mad that some people so strongly dislike it, it just bums me out that people aren’t getting the same joy out of it.
I don’t agree that people who dislike it will put it in the middle of their ballots out of wokeness or whatever, so I’m less sanguine about it’s chances of winning.
The Fabelmans is a perfectly cromulent film, just not that great. In a weak year it might make sense as a winner, but I don’t think this year is that weak.
The push for this to win seems to be from people who like Spielberg and just don’t like the other contenders. Not much passion. I don’t see it happening.
I think I’d like All Quiet on the Western Front a lot more if I hadn’t read the book. I recognized the quality but was frustrated that they departed from what the book was really about and made a more traditional war movie.
Tar is interesting, engaging, and well crafted (although I’ve heard some complaints about the pacing, which I get). I like that it deals with “cancel culture” by actually exploring the concept instead of just saying whether it’s good or bad. I don’t think Blanchett’s performance justifies the “She must win or the entire industry is a sham” talk, but it was quite good and she’d be a worthy winner. I can definitely see it surprising in Director, as it’s the kind of film that tends to win there these days.
It checks all the boxes for a BP contender, but I think if it was going to win we’d be hearing rumors and chatter about it by now.
The Banshees of Inisherin is a terrific film and story in so many ways, which have been covered here and elsewhere. But it’s not perfect; the self-mutilation angle doesn’t quite work for me. It’s weird and surreal and gross in a way that is distracting and takes me out of the film. I like what McDonaugh was saying, but I think the film would have worked better if he’d found a slightly different way to say it.
I can see it winning in a Spotlight kind of way – a film most people like that just kind of hangs around the race and then wins because nobody pulled ahead.
Top Gun is…fine. I don’t hate that it’s a BP contender, it’s an enjoyable action movie. But I’ve see a lot of enjoyable action movies and I don’t really see what sets Top Gun apart. Nothing about it really stands out, and it’s not like it doesn’t have flaws.
I can see it winning as kind of an anti-EEAAO pick. That wouldn’t be a crisis, but it’s something people would look back on years later and say “Really? Must’ve been a weak year.”
I haven’t seen Elvis but I’m expecting something on the same level as Walk the Line or Ray. Butler might win, but my money is still on Farrell.
Avatar was a lot like the original – visually stunning, with simple, straightforward characters and story. I don’t get why people think Top Gun is so much better than this. It was amusing that they dropped all mention of “Unobtainium” and instead introduced a completely new MacGuffin for the humans to pursue. This planet, I tell ya.
Women Talking was never going to win BP (too much talk, not enough anything else) but I’m surprised the cast didn’t get more traction, since they were great. How many voters even saw it?
I haven’t seen Triangle of Sadness but should have time this weekend.
you hit the mark with CODA in the 1980s. Every year there is a similar drama nominated. 100 million is an overestimation, most likely, but I get what you mean.
Actually I think TAR is very decisive about Cancel Culture. Early on the film clearly mocks the kid who won’t listen to Bach, but by the end Lydia’s fall is because of very provable abuse and that Lydia should not be given authority over other people in an employment setting.
Children of a Lesser God made $100 million. Rain Man made $350 million.
What I meant about Tar is that it goes beyond the question of “Is she guilty?” because “How guilty is she?”, “What should her ‘punishment’ actually be?” and “What should she do afterwards?” are also important questions, which the film explores.
yeah, true. But 100 million is a really tough bar to cross.
Ordinary People – 90 Million
Chariots of Fire – 59 Million
Big CHill – 56.4 million
So I was thinking early 80’s 🙂
But in the end we had 1989…
Driving Miss Daisy.
Born on the Fourth of July.
Dead Poets Society.
Field of Dreams.
My Left Foot.
But Yeah, CODA fits right in.
Makes me even more excited to watch Tar when I get a chance. I think I’ve seen all the other films nominated for BP by now. I also wish like button was brought back. It was a way to signal agreement when I didn’t feel I had anything more substantial to add to discussion.
Sadly, no, and the one movie that could’ve was spat on by the Film Editors Guild today, the final bitchslap of a rotten season of disrespect against Way of Water, superior to EEAAO in every way. Cocaine Bear has a better chance of winning next year’s BP. And it will be another head-scratching choice by an Academy that has clearly lost its way.
Boxoffice Guru says Knock at the Cabin and 80 for Brady need to crack at least $12m to end Avatar 2’s 7 weekend #1 streak. Deadline predicts KatC for a 15-17m open. Universal scooped up a lot of PLF and Dolby Cinema venues.
Tuesday PM update: Way of Water displaces the original Avengers ($623.5m) and enters the domestic all-time ranking at #10. Next; Jurassic World ($653m), Titanic ($659m) and Avengers: Infinity War ($678m). Globally, it’s #4 all time ($2.128 billion). Next up worldwide? Titanic’s $2.19b and that’s where it’ll end its run.
Why is Avatar: The Way of Water always ignored? It is ALSO the movie thah brought everyone to the cinemas. Even more than Top Gun!
My theory on that has a lot to do with what Top Gun: Maverick represents as a cultural object. Beyond Top Gun: Maverick being first (which is always important, especially as the only example of a pre-pandemic level massive blockbuster movie that was released after 2020 at the time of its release was a Marvel movie, which is its own thing), I feel like the entire Top Gun: Maverick is “saving cinemas” story eventually turned (in general, not just on this site) into the kind of “real America likes this movie” thing that often has these weird right-leaning tendencies (and even when they don’t, it has the vibe of “my conservative family members are into this”) and feels like it defines “what is American” in a very specific way. And in relation to that, Top Gun is a movie that showcases American military strength whereas Avatar is a movie about blue people on a different planet. Its identity is not as tied to being American as Top Gun: Mavericks is (instead being very tied to being a Hollywood movie due to its size) so it probably feels to American observes less of a “we can all unite over this” movie. And isn’t that what the whole “movie that brought people back to the cinemas” story is, that there was something that united people and brought them back to a shared space, travelled back after experiencing a pandemic to a “better yesterday” of the theatrical experience (and in the minds of some commentators, a notion of American strength that is present in that movie) and that there was something that everyone wanted to see and watched it together? Of course this completely ignores the rest of the world (or at the very least only considers it as indirectly validating an already formed argument through the non-American box office take of that movie) but that’s what so much of American entertainment journalism does.
Instead the story of Avatar: The Way of Water is much simpler as a cultural phenomenon: people had a good time and it made a lot of money.
I agree with most of your points. I do think Top Gun is a much more simpler and less impressive movie than The Way of Water is. Avatar is low-key much more “woke” and leftist than Top Gun is which might be the reason why Top Gun is seen as a stronger challenger.
Top Gun: Maverick, is a – surprisingly, given the 1st one’s actual quality as an embarrassing propaganda piece, which hilariously obvious gay subtext – but it would make a bad addition to the BP winners list, just by judging from the competition.
I am thinking that the only one that can take down EEAAO in an unsurprising way, is Tár. But it is too much of an author piece and far too long, and I’ve heard people that just gave up and hated it, for being – quote – boring.
What people are you talking about? TAR’s clearly not for GP. GP prefers to be too convenient, they want everything handed out without actually having to engage. It’s a sad reality of how people nowadays consume movies. No wonder EEAA has more traction, as it deliberately made out to be heartfelt with superficial existential themes explored.
“But it is too much of an author piece and far too long”
Longish films of epic nature usually do well with the Academy.
Just saying…
A movie that’s over 135 minutes (used because it’s the halfway point between 2 and 2.5 hours, and not because the longest winner during this period is specifically 134 minutes) hasn’t won best picture since The Departed. And the “longish films with an epic nature” that have won in the past were often historical epics, sweeping productions about world-changing events. Despite TÁR being long and feeling epic, it is long and epic in different ways.
A movie that’s over 135 minutes (used because it’s the halfway point between 2 and 2.5 hours, and not because the longest winner during this period is specifically 134 minutes) hasn’t won best picture since The Departed. And the “longish films with an epic nature” that have won in the past were often historical epics, sweeping productions about world-changing events. Despite TÁR being long and feeling epic, it is long and epic in different ways.
yes, but when average movie goer goes and tell you, he almost fell asleep… there’s a problem, there, to appeal to most AMPAS members. Still, I have Tár, at this point, at number 2 for the win.
Hey I’d be pretty Ok with EEAAO winning BP over TAR. It will have a target on its back for years to come, especially when people realise that it isn’t aging very well.
Seriously, if you love some movie why would you want it to win Best Picture at the Oscars? What good can bring to your favorite in the long run?
I love Moonlight, 12 Years a Slave and Parasite and I absolutely fucking love their BP wins. As for what good it brought them, it’s debatable. I know one bad thing it brought them: they can be mentioned in the same sentence as Braveheart and Around the World in 80 Days.
Seriously, even great movies you mentioned above can’t escape this “Oscar curse”. There will be always people who will say:” This was so overrated, another one(s) should have won instead…” Defeated movies usually age better (as the “wronged ones”). Personally, when I love some movie it’s more important to me if it makes many Top 10 critics list that year or those big “Best of Decade” list every ten years (I know… 2029/2030 is long away) than winning BP at the Oscars.
For the bad Best Picture winners you didn’t need to go back to 1950s. You can find plenty of them in 2000s or 2010s. It’s so tarnished at this point that almost none of serious movie buffs can take it seriously.
…except the ones that do, 😉
it isn’t aging very well? wow.
Airplane! – a similar case – has aged perfectly fine, despite the many imitators. Same with Pulp Fiction or The Matrix. And many others.
yes, we all remember Best Picture winners 3 hours long arthouse films like The Tree of Life… oh, wait.
I’m not sure if you have seen TAR but it’s a much more accessible film than The Tree of Life. It’s dealing with the struggle of an artist at the end of the day…
p.s. I have seen TAR four times already and I do think that it’s a total masterpiece in filmmaking.
no, I haven’t seen Tár. I tend to prioritize films that demand a big screen – Banshees – over those who are more intimate and claustrophobic – Tár, The Whale.
That being said, I just started my holidays, so I am starting to catch up… The Whale and Tár are on my to do list, Avatar: The Way of Water as well… but I think next up, is Knock in the Cabin, which intrigues me a lot. I should also check out Puss in Boots: The Last Wish – even if Mark Kermode just dispatched it with saying it’s just fine… Also, I want to catch As Bestas, which sounds really amazing… And I desperately need to see Piggy, which I couldn’t back in the day, probably up in streaming or in demand, soon (from what I read, Piggy and As Bestas could have been in the conversation, if the distributor had paid attention to the reviews and impact, but with Decission to Leave or All Quiet on the Western Front, getting the most attention beforehand… )
I would highly recommend you watch Marcel The Shell with Shoes On if you haven’t done so.
whenever I have a chance. Remember where I live. My town doesn’t even have a cinema…
The best picture nominee I’d most compare it to from the previous 10 years is The Favorite: a very prestige-sounding general topic put through a distinct and intense aesthetic with very strong individual performances from which the conversation never quite moves into discussions of the ensemble. And considering how The Favorite did, especially in relation to competition that I’d argue is weaker than TÁR’s competition this year, I still remain somewhat doubtful about TÁR’s chances of winning despite it having most of the nominations that are of any note (really only missing SAG ensemble, a second acting nomination, Globe director and BAFTA editing).
Substantially weaker competition… (In the 2018/2019 season.)
TAR is not “epic nature” by Oscars standard whatsoever. It’s a psychological story about *a* woman.
I don’t think I agree, I think the story is pretty grand in scope, just told through one person.
I did say in Oscars standard. 🙂
“From a stats perspective, only one movie CAN win and that’s EEAAO.”
WRONG.
Both TAR and Banshees have all the necessary ingredients to do the deed.
I don’t think CODA won because of some political ulterior motive by the voters. Kotsur was absolutely working the campaign junkets like a boss and more than a few people last year on this board and on the dreaded film Twitter kept saying how well those screenings were going and don’t be shocked if it contends for the win. It helped a great deal that POTD was respected more than loved, but what doomed POTD really was that its campaign had absolutely no message. How many people even knew what the film was actually ABOUT? Most of the other legit BP contenders ran poor campaigns. West Side Story was botched beyond belief via an awful and indifferent trailer, and a failure to get the soundtrack into people’s heads months before the film dropped (same mistake In the Heights made). Belfast turned out to be not as good as the trailer made it look. Dune I suspect suffered from the “let’s see how this thing ends” syndrome. And Don’t Look Up…didn’t. NIghtmare Alley opened too late and never really got momentum. CODA was as I always say the right film at the right time.
Despite all the handwringing in some corners about the pyrotechnics and martial arts fighting, EEAAO is really just a family dramedy, and the family happens to be Asian. I just wish to Christ some people out in the ether would stop being so hung up on the Asian part of this. The Daniels cast the film the way they did because that’s what they wanted to do. But what’s helped this film get into the position it’s in is the Kotsur thing. At the screenings and junkets the people there have fallen in love with the cast as PEOPLE. Quan became the face of the campaign because people who meet him really LIKE him. And btw, it really helps that he gives a great peformance that requires a ton of physical and emotional range. The In the Mood homage (in your screenshot for this article) really sealed it for Quan and Yeoh in particular.
As for Top Gun/Jaws. The film that won BP in 1975, Cuckoo’s Nest, was the second highest grossing film of 1975 and 1976 and ended up the seventh highest grossing film of all time. And the three previous winners (Godfathers I and II, and the Sting) at the time were also in the top 10 highest grossing films of all time at the time they won. Jaws absolutely changed the blockbuster game and fundamentally altered release patterns of all movies from that point on (which was a double edged sword if you read Peter Biskind’s Easy Riders and Raging Bulls closely). But, it’s slightly overstating things arguing that Jaws made people realize movies were a thing again. People increasingly forget that the “New Hollywood” 70’s art films pulled off a hell of a feat by making sophisticated and modern art films that also made huge money. As great as Jaws was (and still is), the blockbuster era that followed changed tastes to less sophisticated fare until the 90s Indie Boom.
BTW, now that Avatar 2 has passed Top Gun 2 in box office grosses, I’m not entirely 100 percent sure that Maverick single handedly saved movies. In fact considering how many screens Top Gun hoovered up in its run, other filmmakers weren’t off base complaining that their films never had a chance in that dynamic. Either way, and I’m sorry to be the one to say this, because it’s not a shot at any fan of the movie at all and I’m serious about this, to my eyes the thing that hurt its final Oscar push was Cruise’s prominent place in the Scientology cult. I get it I get it, separate art from artist. But it’s been harder to do that with Cruise since Going Clear (book and film) dropped. Carmichael’s Shelly Miscavige joke at the Globes got a muted response, but you darn well know that Academy voters who are more than over Cruise’s Hubbard zealotry were very quietly nodding in agreement when Carmichael said that. Is that fair that he should lose his chance because of that? Maybe, maybe not. But in a dynamic where one on one campaigning is absolutely 100 percent crucial, that sure as hell could not have helped.
I think Banshees is still in the lead although it’s not exactly a truly “populist” film. Let’s just see what DGA/SAG/PGA says.
I would strongly recommend not watching the dubbed All Quiet on the Western Front. Films should be watched in the form the filmmakers intended them to be watched.
“At the screenings and junkets the people there have fallen in love with the cast as PEOPLE.”
This is what I keep saying repeatedly. The cast and directors charm every room they show up for I keep hearing and reading. This was what took Parasite and CODA all the way.
You would think this Riseborough business would clue, well, EVERYONE into how this one on one stuff works.
Which is sad because neither of those films should have won !
I never watch anything dubbed. It would be half a movie, to me.
How is Banshees in the lead?
Actor and Original Screenplay and a nagging feeling it’s leading PGA
It’s not in the lead for original screenplay, even – WGA+CC pretty much never loses, and that’s what EEAAO is likely to have. If it doesn’t also win BAFTA. Actor is very unclear. Maybe Farrell is in the lead, but his performance is not the kind that usually wins, in these scenarios. And saying it’s likeliest to win the PGA is the same as saying it’s likeliest to win the Oscar (even if they don’t always match, the PGA win is almost always the key final ingredient and it definitely should be this year, too, in most cases) – in other words, you’re arguing it’s in the lead for picture because it’s in the lead for picture, on that one. 🙂 But, anyway, doesn’t this whole notion contradict your one-on-one campaigning theory? Is Banshees‘ campaign better than EEAAO‘s? If so, it’s the first I’ve heard of it. Or did you mean it was in the lead when looking at everything else besides the campaigning angle?
Banshees didn’t miss WGA because it wasn’t up to snuff with the guild, it wasn’t eligible.
Farrell has been very good on the campaign trail.
It didn’t miss, evidently, but even in similar situations in the past (Get Out vs. Three Billboards) winning the WGA (even if the main competition was ineligible) in addition to the Critics Choice has proved superior to winning the Globe and BAFTA. If Banshees was such a clear pick in screenplay it absolutely would have won the Critics Choice!
The only very weird thing about the Critics Choice is that Yeoh didn’t win. I can’t explain why. The oddest outcome of the season.
Probably because, as I’ve been saying since before the first critics awards, it will be hard for a movie like EEAAO to win 2 acting Oscars. Especially if both would be for Asian cast members – this is AMPAS we’re talking about, after all. (And this CC result is just the confirmation that this is what will most likely happen.) They’ve often given us big clues that they’re not quite “there” yet, most famously, when Chadwick Boseman and Viola Davis both lost, despite winning SAG. (And, in Boseman’s case, also GG & CC.) To White folks (both previous winners, which is usually a disadvantage) that only had a BAFTA win, of the big TV awards.
I respect Everything Everywhere as a family drama, wish it took that aspect a little more seriously. When you strip away everything the family drama is pretty straightforward, about the same depth as The Fablemans, more or less. Which is nothing compared to Aftersun or The Inspection, films that really dig deep.
I’d place Banshees somewhere in the middle of that comparison.
Aftersun is in a whole other league than basically this entire BP field.
yup
Upvoted!
(Btw why did they eliminated the upvote thing?)
If I had a personal guess it was to elimate evidence that posts that are openly criticial of the articles have wider support on the forum than just the person who made the dissenting opinion.
Yes – anything can definitely take out EEAAO.
I know some people are taking the CCA results quite seriously but without SAG/PGA/DGA info – it’s still anyone’s game.
We have seen with the preferential ballot, the early front runner can be upset. Will know better with PGA and SAG.
EEAAO has it in the bag. I’d prefer Tar but it’s EEAAO.
I think EEAAO is definitely not everyone’s cup of tea. It will be an uphill battle for the win, I believe. That said, it might have a fairly insurmountable lead after the first round that something else might not be able to catch up. Also, one main film has to be the “one” to coalesce those votes away from EEAAO and … I just don’t know which film that is. I think Banshees, TG:M, and The Fabelmans would cannibalize each other with too much a smattering of 2s, 3s, 4s etc to make headway over EEAAO with a majority of 1s to go along with the damning 6s, 7, s8s etc. But who knows? I think Banshees is the one that could/would do it. PGA/DGA/BAFTA will tell a lot.
No.
I saw JAWS many times in a theater. I saw TOP GUN 2 in a theater.
TOP GUN 2 is no JAWS.
Hell, Top Gun 2 is no Edge of Tomorrow.
I’ve been meaning to watch that one for a long time – I really should finally do it. 🙂
It’s one of only two TC-starring movies that I’ve watched multiple times, the other being Jerry Maguire.
I like Jerry Maguire a lot, too. Rain Main is my favorite Tom Cruise movie, though.
Perhaps because it’s a Dustin Hoffman movie?
Doesn’t hurt… 🙂 No, but I like everything that movie does. I’m a big fan.
I love Rain Man, too. It is one of my dad’s favorites as well.
Upvote! 🙂
🙂 I like and miss the good old upvote.
Yeah, it seems a lot of us do. I doubt it can be much longer until they bring it back… 🙂
YAY, UPVOTE IS BACK!!!
I saw. 🙂 Nice!…
That, too! Nor, the majority of the Mission Impossible flicks
I like Top Gun: Maverick quite a bit but it’s odd to me that it was pushed for best picture when there was no push whatsoever for the considerably better Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol or Edge of Tomorrow, or purely in terms of Cruise performances that he was being discussed as a possibility for Top Gun: Maverick but not for the much more deserving Mission: Impossible – Fallout performance.
I loved Edge of Tomorrow & hated/was massively confused when they changed title to Live. Die. Repeat. after the theatrical release.
I was unaware of that until now. Ugh.
Yup, not even close…
No kidding! Jaws is hella boring.
Shots fired.
The ADD crowd chimes in
what’s scarier?
A. A shark
B. Your Past
A mediocre movie being proclaimed better than a “boring” classic. That’s scarier
Just saw Total Film magazine picking it as the best film of 2022 and a bit on “how Tom Cruise saved cinemas.”
Outside of Everything Everywhere All at Once, I think the following films have a chance to take home the coveted Best Picture trophy: Top Gun 2, Elvis, Avatar: The Way of Water, Triangle of Sadness Tár, The Banshees of Inisherin, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, All Quiet on the Western Front, Women Talking, and The Fabelmans
I think someone needs to hire an intern!
The Ocars were the only single channel non-sports program to finish in the top 100 for the year according to the Nielson Ratings.
The Oscars pulled in 16 million viewers on ABC
The #1 regular TV show was 60 minutes which averaged fewer than 9 million viewers
All quiet will never be considered one of the great war films. It has nothing interesting to say that hasn’t been said before. It’s well made, but technically other films are better made. As I’ve said countless times the better WW1 movie of this year is Benediction. Just so you know I’m not playing favorites. On criticstopten.com Benediction is 37 and All Quiet is #41. And I guarantee you that Benediction has been scene by a small fraction that have seen All Quiet.
And while i haven’t seen them all war films, The Thin Red Line is the best one I’ve seen.
Human Condition has entered the chat
I don’t even know what that is ok looked it up, the graphic art with no greater love looks familiar. One of the streamers I rotate is Criterion, so hopefully next time I will get to it. Meanwhile I noticed it was a book, but sadly no audiobook on audible, which I would gobble up in a minute.
War films that take place in non-American settings, interest me. It’s a wonderful way to introduce oneself into another country’s history and culture.
Human Condition is BRUTAL to watch. Nothing is put to the side to spare feelings. But it’s also incredibly well made and acted. Kobayashi kind of gets lots in the shuffle when the great Japanese filmmakers are discussed.
I have seen every war movie. I have kindly listed the official ‘top ten’ war movies:
1. Avengers: Infinity War (2018)
2. War (2007)
3. Charlie Wilson’s War (2007)
4. This Means War (2012)
5. Captain America: Civil War (2016)
6. War of the Gargantuas (1962)
7. War Horse (2011)
8. War and Peace (1956)
9. The Current War (2017)
10. Warcraft (2016)
These are good and various titles you have kindly listed. Coming in at #11 would probably be The War of the Roses (1989) which failed to make it into the ‘top ten’ due to graphic language. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/21a8b807df87498f5bf905ab879d443e4c7bf127f2f26158f5d439629c180e1a.gif
but you both miss I Was a Male War Bride which delved way too deep into Queer Theory for 1949.
Upvoting this key correction.
Classic film!
ha ha
Terence Davies is a great under seen filmmaker ! Richard Brody in The New Yorker had Benediction number #1 on his ten best list along with Armageddon Time and Amsterdam ! By the way there is a web site called World of Reel on which I just saw on set photographs from Francis Ford Coppola’ s Megalopolis ! I cannot wait to see this film
The most important question is where did A24 go? They used to have a special section on Showtime’s site, now it’s gone. Where did they go? Anyone know?
Paramount is basically doing a Discovery/HBO Max to Showtime. Multiple shows have already been cancelled and archives are being culled.
No.
That was such a succinct answer to the headline that it almost went over my head. 😉
🙂 There really is not much else to say… (Although I hope I’m wrong, for the sake of suspense. Even if The Fabelmans, the one I’m rooting for, is not the alternative that ends up materializing.)
A film I will be watching in the next few days…