This weekend, we will find out just how accurate our analysis has been of this race. It should be noted that consensus building has more or less overtaken analysis, unless the voters revolt — which they might do. Otherwise, they’ll stick with the consensus, meaning they’ll pick the contenders we think they’re going to pick. We just have no intel at the moment of how a voting body of 16,000 members is going to vote on a five nominee ballot, as opposed to a ten nominee ballot, which will happen the following weekend.
Either the race is a done deal starting this weekend — if the Daniels win for Everything, Everywhere All at Once — or it’s a real race, if anyone else wins. Let’s look around at what people are predicting elsewhere. The latest has our friend Jazz going out on a limb with Todd Field for TAR, while Queen Anne is going for Spielberg:
And then the two champs of late, Wilson Morales and Joyce Eng, are going all in with The Daniels:
The DGA voters are one of the largest groups in the industry, second only to SAG. If they both go for EEAAO, stick a fork in it. You might as well start focusing on the only two open categories, Best Actor and Best Actress. Maybe — MAYBE — Original Screenplay.
The only times the DGA has given their award to two directors were in 1961 (Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins for West Side Story) and in 2007 (Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men). These are two of the greatest films of all time, it should be said, so for EEAAO to land in that esteemed company would be saying a lot.
Might it happen? Sure, it might. It reminds me of Little Miss Sunshine, though, meaning it might have a better chance to win on a preferential ballot. What would be The Departed of this year? Probably Top Gun: Maverick. The red meat pick trumping the more female-oriented, feel-good movie. Is that likely to happen? It would be a huge shock, but probably one that, once in motion, would be hard to slow down.
The voters don’t always comply with the consensus, especially if the critics are behind it. The actors tend to be the deciding factor, and if they’re not into Top Gun: Maverick (which it doesn’t appear that they are) then it isn’t likely to win the Best Picture Oscar.
With five, it’s easier to see a big winner like Gladiator or Chicago that wins without Director or Screenplay. If the Academy had five now, Top Gun: Maverick would have a much easier chance to win. But with the ranked choice ballot, actors become the key voting bloc. What they like is what will drive this thing all the way home. And what they like has shifted in the past few years from movies that display great acting to movies that reflect social justice issues in one way or another: what will make them FEEL good about their vote and LOOK GOOD to their fans and followers?
The question, as always, to ask is whether the industry has moved through its activist stage or not. Given the uproar over the Best Actress race, and the residual guilt (after everything they’ve done to improve things for non-white actors), the voters might feel still inclined to divert or subvert their personal preferences to vote more for the betterment of society (or their image) overall. And it could be those two things align.
No matter how you slice it, it always seems to come back to Everything, Everywhere All at Once, with no viable alternative to challenge it where the preferential ballot is concerned (if it’s five movies then it’s just a simple competition).
What we don’t yet know is whether Picture and Director will split.
Erik Anderson at AwardsWatch is predicting Everything Everywhere takes Picture and Director.
Gold Derby is slightly more divided on Picture and Director.
If they split:
2012 — Argo (PGA/DGA/SAG) / Life of Pi
2013 — 12 Years a Slave (PGA) / Gravity (PGA/DGA)
2015 — Spotlight (SAG) / The Revenant (DGA)
2016 — Moonlight / La La Land (PGA/DGA)
2018 — Green Book (PGA) / Roma (DGA)
2021 — CODA (PGA/SAG) / The Power of the Dog (DGA)
Or if they don’t:
2009 — The Hurt Locker (PGA/DGA)
2010 — The King’s Speech (PGA/DGA/SAG)
2011 — The Artist (PGA/DGA)
2014 — Birdman (PGA/DGA/SAG)
2017 — The Shape of Water (PGA/DGA)
2019 — Parasite (SAG)
2020 — Nomadland (PGA/DGA)
Parasite is the only time in the era of the preferential ballot that the DGA winner did not win either Best Picture or Director or both. A combination of factors led to this, from a conversation about all white winners in the acting categories to the charisma of Bong Joon Ho, to people finally getting around to seeing Parasite and to voters not wanting to vote for the frontrunner, 1917. The problem for 1917 was that it wasn’t a movie full of actors and in general, that’s what wins Best Picture. Mendes was expected to win Best Director but by the end the Parasite love was too strong.
The ways this year could split will obviously depend on what wins the DGA this weekend and PGA/SAG next weekend. Most are assuming Everything Everywhere takes all three. But if it doesn’t, how might it split?
In the above list of splits, there is one thing they all have in common: the Best Picture winner has a SAG ensemble nomination and the Best Director winner does not.
So which of our Best Director nominees doesn’t have a SAG ensemble nomination?
TAR
Triangle of Sadness
In keeping with the pattern above, the most likely person to benefit from a split is Todd Field for TAR, in which case he would likely win the DGA this weekend. That’s some fuzzy math for you!
As for the non-splits, having a SAG ensemble nomination definitely helps but it isn’t mandatory. Twice the winner didn’t have a SAG ensemble nomination but did have acting nominations somewhere, which is ultimately what hurts movies like Top Gun Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front.
It’s possible that this year could break with tradition, given that Hollywood is in such dire straits. Sometimes they can break a pattern if they are motivated enough and I think that’s the only way the race will become unpredictable. Otherwise, all points lead back to one movie dominating these awards: EEAAO.
Here are our DGA predictions. I am going to go rogue on this just for fun, since we have almost every director covered here AND we have to try to inject SOME excitement into what is likely about to become a predictable race.
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans — Marshall Flores, Mark Johnson
The Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once — Clarence Moye
Todd Field, TAR — Ryan Adams
Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick — Sasha Stone
First-Time Director:
Charlotte Wells, Aftersun — Stone, Adams, Johnson, Moye, Flores
I’m going with Kosinski because I can’t decide between Spielberg and the Daniels. My heart says Spielberg, my head says The Daniels. It’s probably going to be the Daniels, but let’s just take a risk for the fun of it.
Onward to predictions for this week. Depending on what the DGA does…
Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All at Once (if it wins the DGA/PGA/SAG)
Top Gun: Maverick (If it wins the DGA/PGA)
The Fabelmans (if it wins the DGA/PGA)
The Banshees of Inisherin (if it wins the DGA/PGA/SAG)
All Quiet on the Western Front
Tár
Elvis
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
Triangle of Sadness
Best Director
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans (if he wins the DGA)
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once (if they win DGA)
Todd Field, Tár (if he wins the DGA)
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actor
Brendan Fraser, The Whale (If he wins the SAG)
Austin Butler, Elvis (If he wins the SAG/BAFTA)
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin (if he wins the SAG or the BAFTA)
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tár (if she wins the SAG)
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once (if she wins the SAG)
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Supporting Actress
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau, The Whale
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
Top Gun: Maverick (if it wins the DGA)
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
The Fabelmans
Triangle of Sadness
Best Editing
Top Gun: Maverick
Tár
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Tár
Empire of Light
Bardo
Best Costume Design
Elvis
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Best Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
Babylon
The Fabelmans
Sound
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Makeup and Hairstyling
Elvis
The Whale
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Original Score
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Babylon
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Song
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR or “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Applause” from Tell It like a Woman
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best International Feature
All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
Argentina, 1985, Argentina
Close, Belgium
EO, Poland
The Quiet Girl, Ireland
Best Documentary
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
All That Breathes
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
The Flying Sailor
My Year of Dicks
Ice Merchants
Live Action Short
An Irish Goodbye
The Red Suitcase
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers
How Do You Measure a Year?
Haulout
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
The dust is starting to settle after BAFTAs and DGA:
Pix: EEAAO
Dir: EEAAO
Actress: Only two, but my money is on Yeoh
Actor: Butler
Supporting Actor: Quan
Supporting Actress: Bassett
Original SP: EEAAO
Adapted SP: Western Front (Women Talking is DOA)
Midway through “Of an Age” I pondered how could the film only have gotten a 71 on Metacritic. I assumed it went downhill towards the end. It did not. And I am still left to ponder “How did it only get a 70?” (The score changed!) I quickly looked at a yellow review and it started something like “Do we really need another period tragic gay love story?” While cleaning up my vomit I understood why. Straight people won’t get this movie.
The plot is simple. It concerns two gay men, each at a different stage in their gayness. One is four years older, so the differences are no surprise. The two end up spending a full day together. Then a decade passes, they meet again and the two catch up with each other.
I am extremely vague because I don’t want to give anything away. A look, a glance, a turning away. These actions are all more telling than the dialogue they share. I always knew what they were thinking because they were all moments I have experienced myself. And that’s what makes the movie fantastic.
The performances, the direction, the script, they are all top notch. To me this movie is in the same league as Aftersun and Moonlight. I left the theater shaken, haunted, changed, fulfilled. For once, I can say, I know that someone understands me.
Now Tomatometer is 88% (42 reviews). Audience score 93% (<50, though). Just saw the trailer and looks good. Thanks for the tip.
Glad you felt understood.
Those moments in film are too beautiful, and one of the many reasons for us and others to protect and defend the art of cinema!
[featuring this comment with misty eyes]
By the end of the weekend we’ll
Likely know it’s a big sweep coming. Just no stopping some things.
2 hours later – what is your thought now?
It’s a sweep coming….and Jamie Lee Curtis may well join in on the fun.
Curtis will split the support with Hsu, so that’s tough.
I think Yeoh is the one who will inch closer to the statue.
that might be a bit of a stretch lol
you called it wow
My predictions for the guilds: DGA: Daniels or Spielberg. I’m predicting Spielberg as a possible winner only because The Fabelmans has a stronger chance of winning the PGA than I had previously thought. PGA: The Fabelmans and Banshees are strongfavourites based on their wins at GG. Everything Everywhere has just two outs thanks to its performance at BFCA, which was exceptionally strong. WGA: Everything Everywhere is the super favourite here and should easily win, although there’s a small chance for TAR. SAG Ensemble: it should really be between Everything Everywhere and Banshees since they both have five nominations. However, SAG stats are weakest by far and very unpredictable. I can easily see Women Talking take this with Everything Everywhere and Banshees winning individual awards. I think Blanchet winning SAG makes it more likely Everything Everywhere will win SAG Ensemble.
Actually, BFCA wins for BP/BD/screenplay are all better predictors than GG wins in the same categories.
The only directing award that will matter tonight is when Charlotte Wells gets hers.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e41fd229f2e89eb4c2557b4dba547d5b3342589b8e9f25b191f35d097f55a543.gif
DGA will go to Field or Spielberg
they should change it to make sure a movie I prefer wins the trophy actually
In all fairness, you should get to fill out Frances Fisher’s ballot.
Truth
Midway through “Of an Age” I pondered how could the film only have gotten a 71 on Metacritic. I assumed it went downhill towards the end. It did not. And I am still left to ponder “How did it only get a 70?” (The score changed!) I quickly looked at a yellow review and it started something like “Do we really need another period tragic gay love story?” While cleaning up my vomit I understood why. Straight people won’t get this movie.
The plot is simple. It concerns two gay men, each at a different stage in their gayness. One is four years older, so the differences are no surprise. The two end up spending a full day together. Then a decade passes, they meet again and the two catch up with each other.
I am extremely vague because I don’t want to give anything away. A look, a glance, a turning away. These actions are all more telling than the dialogue they share. I always knew what they were thinking because they were all moments I have experienced myself. And that’s what makes the movie fantastic.
The performances, the direction, the script, they are all top notch. To me this movie is in the same league as Aftersun and Moonlight. I left the theater shaken, haunted, changed, fulfilled. For once, I can say, I know that someone understands me.
Sexy Stella is dead.
I loved the Poseidon Adventure. The whole family would watch when it was on. And my mom would worry that Stella Stephens was showing too much skin for my younger self. Especially during the swimming portion, her lacy smocklike dress would flow up revealing panties! So my dad and soon my sister and me would mock mom. “Look at Sexy Stella!” we’d say.
I really have no other memories of her. But that’s enough.
“Butterfly Mornings and Wildflower Afternoons “
“The only times the DGA has given their award to two directors were in 1961 (Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins for West Side Story) and in 2007 (Joel and Ethan Coen for No Country for Old Men). These are two of the greatest films of all time, it should be said, so for EEAAO to land in that esteemed company would be saying a lot.”
There are very few films with two directors. Of the 75 years of DGA, there are by my count 9 films with multiple directors. Some are classics, others not. There’s less for Oscar. By being nominated, they are already in that company.
Joel and Ethan Coen were long overdue for recognition at the time.
Much like Scorsese back in 2007.
Exactly. The relevant question is whether the amount of directors is in any way correlated with the decision of whether people want to vote for it, which the notion that directing pairs rarely get nominated does not inherently imply. On top of this, I have yet to hear a reason outside of this rarity for why it would be an influential factor in the decision-making (is it less impressive if a well-directed film is arrived at by having two difrectors, is the film worse if it has two directors, would voters be envious of director pairs in some ways etc.).
Do we even have an obvious nominees failing to win or be nominated, let alone for that reason?
Dayton and Faris for Little Miss Sunshine but I think there might have been other factors there (mainly that it’s not the kind of movie that usually does well in director and the branch can be a little snobby sometimes about films they don’t consider “serious enough”)
For a long time it was hard to get DGA to credit multiple directors. It’s why Joel Coen is the only director credited for Fargo even though they both directed it.
Ok cmon everyone i no doubt people more concerned bout evrryones fav action star since they were kids in bruce willia acting careet bring cut so savagely short … cmon pple.
Put aside the underwhelming watered doen scewered awards season.
Focus on far BIGGER issues . It cannot be disciunted i put question again is Warner Bros on brink of collapse ? What if any umpact ripple effect or wprse could this have on big studio hollywood ?.is wesk warner bros bad for movie industry given warner bros been at hesrt of hollywood filmmaking for very very lomg time? Has james gunn made some terrible decisions ? How u fix a studio that gone off rails? Do we need a strong warner bros have strong big srudio hollywood ?
Put u views forward.. much bigger comcerns than who win dga or pga blah blah … i know i not only one comcerned both bruce willis acting career cut so crurlly short and warner bros cataclysm upon us ey? Thiuhhts???
I love Bruce Willis. I’d rather not think about the bad stuff that’s going down with him. 🙁 Too depressing.
Cinematography is wide open.
TAR is the only film with a Directing nomination in the lineup.
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It is also out of those nominees the one that is the least like any recent cinematography winner
Florian Hoffmeister’s cinematography is the “sharpest” one among the nominees. It’s a flawless work.
But like I said, “sharp” hasn’t really meant that much at least in recent years in the category. Flawless hasn’t meant much in recent years in the category (see the absolutely atrocious cinematography of Mank winning). It’s not traditionally “pretty” in terms of the lighting and it’s not really a craft awards contender in general (because two below the line nominations including editing doesn’t count), which recent cinematography winners have usually been.
What time DGA starts and how long it usually is?
I believe 8pm Pacific time and usually runs in the East to maybe 2am (11PT)
I ULTRA KEEN TO KNOW everyoned thoughts about raft of other issues ok inc guilds gauntlet coming up :
1. Is EEAAO in YOUR VIEW FORGET what most likely happen YOUR VIEW how u FEEL true best most evocative memorable successful best picture this year? If si why if not why not ? Beyond rationale it ‘independent low budget film ?’
2. Is Warner Bros in yiur view beginnibg of a black darker trend emerging amongst big film studio at a time … must be pointed out big hollywood need stand up for us the people film goers esp in awards season take a stand for urgency foe big studio revival esp post pandemic ? Can u forgive warner bros for sacking if Nolan and Snyder ? And habit to start/stop and chop n chsnge franchises have pitrntial and others do not ? Can Warner hros recocer from rhis ?? How?
3. My pref ballot proposal… think bout it is it not sensible simplwr step to take? Is not vitally important for Academy in protecting their institutio s intrersts nd be morr eespinsible reflecting oublic interst that thry MUST like they used to embrace films public and critics LOVE how is anytjng less gonna help academy have crntenary worth celebratjng ? Can you see comsiderable fallout if EEAAO wins best picture and TGM only wins 2 tech awards at best ? See how my proposal keep 10 best pic nominees, ONLY if as collective per category of ampas ballit votes for oscar.. ONLY if more votes overall no. 2 choice film combined for one category rhat ONLY below no.1 ranking per category per ballit overtake iverall no.1 spot when all ballots tallied together per category.. no. 3 and 4 STAY 3rd or 4 th do NOT have chance to gazump no.1 choice or no.☺2 if doesnt wprj why not and how on earth is current broken pref ballot systrm gonna lead more acceltable outcomes. Dobt say ” u cant pls everyone ‘ i kniw that put considered thiuhht thriugh rationale people not cop out ‘ excuses ‘ like aboce to justidy oscar limping meekly to their centenary ey?
4. Your tribute to Bruce Willis shocking fall from grace given how rare it is such how profile actor and universally loved one overall.. broke action hero stereotype , that proved his veraatility as his promising careet flourished what is it aspect or films in u own way a d words u remember MOST about bruce willis drcorated acting career? U reqction to tragedy him being highest profile hollywood actor have his career railroaded by rabid evil dementia disease? That all but desroyed what he truly dewrrved to have another 20 yrs of acging ahead of him if allowed in right roke given to him win an oscar in future if he didnt have dememtia??
I finally watched THE FABELMANS last night. I liked the film quite a bit, but I see no reason to give BD to Spielberg other than “he’s Spielberg”
If he had never won before I’d be fine with it, but there’s zero legit reason to give it to him for this film.
I’d say that THE FABELMANS should probably be one of the BP nominees to go home empty handed based on its nominations.
BAFTA did the right thing on The Fabelmans front..!
The incessant Spielberg bashing on these threads is soooo tiresome.
If ”Fabelmans” didn’t do it for you, fine. But Spielberg has made so many memorable movies and deserves more than a modicum of respect.
This.
EEAAO fan I presume?
I like it alot, but I’m not gung ho over it like most of the internet.
Spielberg doesn’t need a Lifetime Achievement Award certainly not for The Fabelmans !
Exactly
not Oscar.com youtube putting out a special featurette for EEAAO the night before DGA awards: https://youtu.be/j6kG3TLKuIE
They also put one out for The Whale, Causeway, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, and then in previous weeks for Turning Red, Glass Onion, Women Talking, Till, The Pale Blue Eye, Pinocchio, The Good Nurse, Bardo, All Quiet on the Western Front, The Son, Nanny, My Policeman, Living, Hustle, Good Night Oppy, Elvis, Nope, Blonde, and Thirteen Lives.
which i saw. my main point was just that it’s published the night before the DGA. thanks for taking the time to put up the list tho
https://7news.com.au/entertainment/celebrity/bruce-willis-family-gives-devastating-health-update–c-9782387
Has Awards Daily.com paid tribute to Bruce Willis turn for the worse and pause to reflect as we all should that he singlehandedly particularly in over half first half of his career became EVERYONES staple actions star to eagerly go to cinemas to see what dire situations his characters find himself in? he was the penultimate fighter that never said ‘die’ in any situation always managed through sheer grit and determination and (tad of insanity at risk to his own characters life and wellbeing has to be said)- particularly with his signature landmark role of John McClane in still lasting the test of time classic Die Hard movies- and other 2 while not as good where pretty awesome too – because let face it people loved Bruce Willis and it reflected in how lucrative not just his ‘Die Hard franchise’ was but his role as a action star, hero, and even some magnificent drama- from John McClane to hero to save the world in the modern classic Armageddon, from the ‘color of night’ erotic drama to literally being ‘unbreakable;- and who could forget his capacity for comedy- particularly in brilliant ‘red and red 2’! unlike the Jean Claude Van Dammes and Arnold Schwarzeneggers of the time Bruce Willis broke the streotypical actions star.
He is essentially on a par for his impact and his resonance beyond the time of films that made him superstar with that other proven versatile literal fighter hero of ‘Rocky Balboa’ in ‘Sly’ Stallone.
HE had a natural aura and affinity with filmgoers…film goers ever since Die Hard- just astonished at this new age then approach to redefining role of a modern day action star- calm in a crisis but REALLY LET RIP at his opponents when thye chips are down! Steely resolve yet stubborn even public could relate.
Bruce Willis till now has been unquestionably most prolific film star of his generation or on par with likes of Nicholas Cage, and Stallone, Cruise he is up there as one finest and most popular actors going round – his golden globe wins prove that point .
Did Bruce Willis get one academy award nomination? if not shame he should least been nominated once in his most admired decades of work and legions of fans he built up and following.
I think one his most understated rolls was in severely underrated that accidentally prophetised the coming implications of the war on terror years before it happened coming full pelt on US soil in THE SIEGE. As the dogged, stubborn frustrated general who felt a need to act without consent with parties involved to protect the public from potentially more terror attacks and deal with fallout from devastating bombings previously- has to be remember i pretty sure ‘ THE SIEGE’ was released 2 yrs before 9./11 i cannot believe naivety of critics even then even i sensed threat of islamis extremism building but that for another time. i digress.
So as we all know sure Bruce Willis is alive..but he struggling..one cannot begin to imagine how tough it is for the family above all for the man himself.. This is a live TRAGEDY UNFOLDING WITHIN HOLLYWOOD as one their finest most enduring hollywood actors of our time and most beloved has been hit by cruellest disease on this planet arguably- ‘frontal lobal dementia’ omg!! and worse still Bruce Willis is tad over 66 years old!
HE HAD PLENTY OF FILM ROLES LEFT IN HIM PERHAPS EVEN HIS BEST WORK LAY AHEAD OF HIM FOR HIS INCREDIBLE ACHIEVEMENT AND VARIETY ROLES HE WAS GIVEN…HE COULD HAVE BEEN DEEPLY POPULAR OSCAR WINNER IN FUTURE PROJECT provided he was cast in a role enabled him to maximuise what we all saw his clear potential as he proved beytond doubt to be more than just an action star!
Now.. he is becoming disturbingly a vegetable severely deteriorated memory prob not understanding or comprohending what happening to him…you gotta feel for him and his family..
For this is without doubt a story on a par rightfully with death of Lisa Marie Presley.
I urge the Academy to consider- sure they do tribute montage to years passed hollywood movie stars.
but surely SURELY given direct copnneciton of Lisa Marie to the ‘ Kings’ legacy unto hollywood and BRUCE WILLIS AS A GIANT in modern hollywood would it be bit much to ask the Academy give pause to reflect on magnitutde of these 2 individuals legacy?
they are highest profile casualties in death or in bruce willis case in suffering- having what could been a further 25 yr career ok maybe realistically 20 yrs of acting at LEAST cut so abruptly, cruelly short. relative to other considerable deaths in hollywood this past year. i not playng down the gravity or significance of some truly big time stars in hollywood who passed away at all.
But SCAL;E AND MAGNITUDE OF DUEL TRAGEDY ABSOLUTE OF PASSING OF ELVIS ONLY DAUGHTER COMBINED WITH PASSING OF BRUCE WILLIS ACTING CAREER THE HIGHEST PROFILE ACTOR BE STRUCK DOWN IN HIS 60’S WITH DEMENTIA THAT RUINED HIS CAREER THAT between these 2 they touches so manyt so go on OScar do a special additional tribute to these 2 fallen stars.
That Priscilla Presley lives and Lisa Marie a whole 15 yrs if i not mistaken younger dies only underscores tragedy of that passing…
That just about every high profile mainstream actor has capacitry to act past age of 65 still going strong and Bruce Willis career now dead in his tracks.
Only underscores some urgency for Academy to extend it run time to do a 15 minute trbitue between these 2 tragedies..
Must be said on a bit of jovial note for form what i hear behind scenes as Bruce Willis family has stated: ” he is fun loving everyone loved Bruce – fans clamored to him he always took thjings in his stride his kindness to others was unparalleled he was gentle soul behind his tough exterior on show “…
But perhaps the most landmark line not even as sentence was way he disposed of his adversaries- unforgettable in the annals of hollywood history – PERIOD’
“YIIPPPEEE KAYAAAY MOTHERFUKER” then BOOOM! Bruce Willis as Jonh Mcclane against all odds up against it overcomes his greatest adversary!
..IF ONLY IF ONE BELIEVES IN MIRACLES- PRAYERS IT BE SO FOR BRUCE WILLIS, THAT HE CAN WE DARE TO HOPE OVERCOME AND WIN OVER HIS GREATEST LIFE ADVERSARY- NOW THREAT TO HIS LIFE ALREADY DERAILED HIS ABILTIY TO ACT:- TO DEFEAT OVERCOME DEMENTIA.
You do have to wonder- Dementia been round known of for 2 decades now what the FUK are medical community doing to find a cure? notion no cure is bulldust- they need really push they should least 5 years ago! THAT BEING REALISTIC found effective treatnment to mitigate give patient chance to fight this off or to find a cure or to identify take steps to address cause of the disease! sure all diseases take decades to address when they new but Dementia claimed my late grandmother at age 73!! i sorry that is unacceptable.. maybe number of medical community not all would be better served have increase chance finding a cure if some ofd them particularly medical assistants to support senior research medical assistants not let themselves get distracted with external lesser important societies ills related matters. You sometimes have to wonder- could my late grandmother or Bruce Willis or others round that age afflicted with advanced dementia- have been in a stornger position have fighting chance overcome their debilitating condition if cure been more seriously commited sooner than it has..? it legitimiate question to ponder..
“The red meat pick trumping the more female-oriented, feel-good movie. Is that likely to happen?”
One could make a pretty strong argument that Paul Dano was the focal character in Little Miss Sunshine and of course Alan Arkin won the Oscar as well.
Either way, Departed had a directing and an acting nomination. Top Gun has neither. I’m hearing “but CODA and Argo didn’t have directing nominations”, conveniently overlooking their acting nominations. And even when Spotlight won just the two Oscars (script and BP), it had a Directing nomination AND two acting nominations. Top Gun would have to break a LOT of stats to win BP, and frankly if it were this kind of juggernaut, why did it miss SAG and acting and directing nominations to begin with?
‘consensus’ “BAAAH” the term ‘consensus’ has been utterly demoraslized and perverted by Guilds voting system utterly…word ‘consent’ means effectively implies ‘taking into account others interests not just your own narrow minded view of your ideals’ ok i scewed that to reflect the irolated bubble world that Guilds vote in most years admittedly not all in last 14 years.
But ‘consensus’ SHOULD TAKE INTO SERIOUS CONSIDERATION US the voters hould think bout as Sasha rightfully said what we LOVE WHAT ,MATTERS TO US INDUSTRY IN ANY PART OF OUR SOCIETY IS ONLY AS EFFECTIVE AS THE CONSUMERS THAT GIVE IT POWER- WOULD ELECTRICITY OR GAS COMPANIES EXIST AND BE ABEL TO GROW IF CUSTOMERS WERE NOT LARGELY HAPPY WITH SERVICE THEY HAVE IF CUSTOMERS DID NOT PAY FOR SERVICES WHERE WOULD INDUSTRY BE THEN? (ok admittedly lot customers frustrated with [price rises etc.,)
Fuel- where would cars be for our needs get from point a to [poimt be if we did not pay for fuel or fuel industry was targeted to ONLY SEVICE ONE mode of lesser accessible transportation?
So where the FUK WOULD INDUSTRY BE WITHOU8T US? IN THE SHITHOUSE UP SHIT CREEK THAT WHERE!!
So it patently clear utterly predictable in most painful way- WILL BECOME TORTUROUS scar on Academy’s legacy very very soon liekly after this awards seaosn is done dusted IF goes way we suspect it all will..that ‘consensus’ is not considering in guilds minds of films nominated for dga or pga they dont take into account public reception overall and reaction to their decsisions instead they pigeonhole viewpoint the matter to choose film thst MOST SOCIALLY RELEVANT TO THE AGREGIOUS AGGREVATED FAR L;EFT ACTIVISTS..online. this is HARDLY MORAL OR SANE OR TRUE REPRESENTATION OF OVERALL ‘CONSENSUS’
DO THE STILL BIG FORMIDABLE TRADITIONALIST COWER IN CORNER THS AWARDS SEASON AND ‘PLAY ALONG’ FOR FEAR OF BACKLASS FROM OPNLINE COMMUNITY? OR DO THEY STAND AND FIGHT FOR FUTURE PROSPECTRS OF ACADEMY IN COUNTRDOWN TO THEIR CENTENARY? WHETHER OR NOT TOP GUN MAVERICK WINS THE PGA OR AND DGA DEPENDS REST ENTIRELY ON CAPACITY FOR TRADITIONAL GUARD IN HOLLYWOOD STEP UP AND VOTE WITH THEIR HEART NOT THEIR HEAD NOT OUT OF FEAR OF REACTION OF MINORITY SOCIAL MEDIA PIGS THAT TAINTED AWARDS SEAOSN FOR OVER A DECADE OVERALL NOW!
To ram point that EEAAO set be most unworthy oscar winner in a decade if goes this way- i represent this chart as EVIDENCE of threshold of past independent produced socar winners number i agree deserved won best picture some won best picture did not were not true best film of year but given EEAAO inabiltiy to cracked top 25 and rating well below parasite, crouching tiger, crash even! omg CRASH!
shows you the narrow manipulated definition of ‘consensus’ TRUE CONSENSUS seems to elude the pea sized brains of guilds more often than not lately..
here the chart i highlighted comapred to other independent films REGARDLESS OF INCONSEQUENTIAL OF LOW OR HIGHER BUDGET TO MAKE SAID FILMS reality of how big imrpession EEAAO has left. answeer bugger all top 25 for independent grossing films is minimum time for guilds to lift their game properly here and it time for traditional gaurd to strap their balls in and put their cards on the table or they might well NOT participate in voting if they just gonna feel intimidated by the minority mob https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af4f397ac6e484c4ae108727844d5b3c5f239966483c8b7aa829295fbbf36027.jpg
Sasha there MASSIVE qualification regarding IF EEAAO lands pga/ dga / wga abd /or SaG to be in ‘ illustrious company’ well that qualification is the guilds voters OWN DECISION as a collectice to LOWER THRESHHOLD MORE NOT LESS what today termed in their eyes a ‘ unforgettable film “.
Well give me a FUKIN break .. it just convrnient for the Guilds if thry go down that path to pretend past precedents are irrelevant . EEAAO is about as memorable as a egg flips out of frypan onto a bacterial INFECTED FLOOR u pick it up covered in dirt and grime what u dowith it ? You TRASH IT no dont dare taste it it be REVOLTING !
DISPOSABLE WASTE! EEAAO does NOT desrrve to be elevated in company true exttdaordinary unfoegettable achievements it NOT in company of Kings Speech or the Departed or Argo or heck like 99.9% of the oscar winners save for nomadland at lest lol EEAAO is frigin more entertainibg.
BUT assualt on senses borne generated oit of cross section of oine eampant political confusioon and disillusionment DOES NOT make a great film
Even if EEAAO does dominate consensus isdue is how LOW the standard of the Guilds threshhold what desrrves be regaeded as great has become.
That EEAAO could be the film open floodgates for future scj fi films it doesnt desrrbe thst honor such is complacency and ignorance and state of denial to it own histoey that what gonna happen. History will judge true standing of EEAAO.
Pple will question ( how could this film open sci fi floodgates whrn ) ABSOLUTE SCI FI GEMS JUST MENTION FEW BLADERUNNER ORIGINAL 2001 A SPACE ODDYSEY, ORIGINAL ALIENS THE MATRIX, EX MACHINA, MINORITY REPORT,, TGE MARTIAN , GRAVITY, FIRST MAN, THE ARRIVAL, LOGANS RUN, otiginal star wars, DISTRICT 9 thr guilds and OSCAR will face a MASSIVE CONUNDRUM WHEN HAPPENS AND IT WILL ‘ WHY NOW’? WHY NOT AT ANY POINT whrn these last far greater far more accomplished far more unforgettable sci fi gems could been embraced ??!
The anseer is simple bluntly EEAAO is birne out of unashamed exploitation of state of division conflict and cinfusion in abstract sirrealiatic crazy montage it energy motivatio driven by attitudebof activism against established order …it is not in vain or of callibre or driven by motivations if ALL other sci fi gems that been gone.
Suspicions will rise galore after if as we assume ..whicg can be dangerius evrn in recent oscar history…. most nominated film wins..
Beyond it flashy ‘flip book ‘ style EEAAO drowns out any potrntial lingering ctuvisl memorable moments that past sci fi gems have had and it bebin awards seaskn best interst to STOP PANDERING giving filmskers like thosebof EEAAO and onmoine activisn brigade MORE POWER impartixularly the claim thru can have that thry elevated an UNWORTHY sci fi advrnture as bee ptecedent setter for future sco fi to win.
Well it shoild happened decade ago at very least… it us beyond the pale in excusable EEAAO least effrctual mrmorable and most overrated sci fi film that been unsble beat parasite or crouching tiger on box office chart or crack top 25 it just ecpediency or arrogance by out of touvh awsrds season to silent majority been sidelined that sudernly box office does not matter ?
Sure let lower bar cos it most docietal acfivist appeasing tripe .
.
WORST. BEST PICTURE FRONTRUNNER SINCE. NOMADLAND WORST FRONTRUNNER SINCE CRASH IN TOP 3 WORST FRONTRUNNER IN 50 YRS OACAR HISTORY
some trying to disgracefully take aim most us eho NOT convinced whatsoever EEAAO is outright bedt pic of yesr … that we tutn on ‘ little gilm that could ‘ but as some members more lebrl.headed have contended that having the team represents much fewer people reglrct most pple win over and over snd ovet or orgsnisation appeases the mimority over snd over outs majority offside.
I left to wonder in expanding the analogy…if my AFL fiotbsll orgsnisation in this ciuntry introduced ALIENS inyo sport favoured and funded aliens over community based human footballl clubs wpuld MOST PPLE warm to Aliens dominating a pples sport ? Repestedly ?
My G-d bar has been raised so damn low. If indeed true and parasite crouching tiger probe this theory true… that foreign films or independrnt produced non hollywood films like that of EEAAO can make top 25 of bedt frosding indrpendent films thrn REGARDLESS OF BUDGET then THAT SHOILD BE MINIMAL TGRESHHOLD FOR ANY INDEPENDENT FILM BE REGARDED AS A BIG TIME CONTENDER.
EEAAO WIN ONLY BE ENHSNCED THERDFORE BY FACT BAR FOR TRUE GRNUINE FILM SUCCESS IS LOWERED COS GUILDS AND AWARDS SEASON KEY AWARD INDICATORS HAVE LOWERED THE BAR THAT WHT THEE JUSTIFIED RAGE ..
THE SCALE OF FAVOURITISM SQUEEZES OUT LIFE BLOOD OF SILENT MQJORITY COS IT FEELS OSCARS RUKES OR GUILDS RULES BEEN DUSTORTED TO FAVOUR REPEATEDLY SMALLER FILMS .OVER BIG ONES NEARLY MOST OF TIME!!
THAT PARASITE SURELY EVEN LESSER BUDGET DAMN WELL MADE 11TH I DIDNT REALUSE TILL I LOOKWD IT UP O ALL TIME INDEPENDENT LIST N I SUR GIVEN NON EXISTRNT NEED FOF VISUSL EFFECTS THAT IT BUDGET LOWER THAN EEAAO AND YET IT MADE 6 TIMES AS MUCH AD EEAAO .
THEREFORE TO BE CREDIBLE MORE UNSNOMOUS RESPECTED OSXAR CONTENDER GUILDS TGE ACQDEMY MUST LIFT THEIR MINIMAL TGRESHHOLD TO 250 MILLION WORLD WIDE NOT AS IS CASE WITH EEAAO VERU SUB PAR EVRN FOF LOW BUDGET IBDEPEMDENT FILM GLOBAL GRODD OF SHADR OVER 100 MILLION.
N THIS FILM IS EFFECTIVEKY BRING PREEMPTED THIS YRS OUTRIGHT WSY BEEN TALKED BOUT PEOPLES SND INDUSTRY CHSMPION AND FOR WHAT ?
IF VOTERS ASKING TGEMSRLVES LOGIC OF AND WOFTH TO ACADRMY SAKE AND OUTLOOK THIS QUESTION THRN MAVERICK RIGYTFULLY CAN WIN
Metascores of the DGA Nominated Films:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6aa7f5034e3fdd25b0cf77640dddde1b9fcd30403455f6ff5693626814fb574e.png
TÁR: 92
The Banshees of Inisherin: 87
The Fabelmans: 84
Everything Everywhere All at Once: 81
Top Gun: Maverick: 78
DGA winning films in the preferential era and their Metascores:
2009: The Hurt Locker: 95
2010: The King’s Speech: 88
2011: The Artist: 89
2012: Argo: 86
2013: Gravity: 96
2014: Birdman: 87
2015: The Revenant: 76
2016: La La Land: 94
2017: The Shape of Water: 87
2018: Roma: 96
2019: 1917: 78
2020: Nomadland: 91
2021: The Power of The Dog: 89
Average Metascore: 89
I miss the days when the “little film that could” would crash the Oscars like Rocky, Breaking Away, Il Postino, Babe, Full Monty, etc. and people would get excited and think it was kind of cool that someone different was invited to the party. Now? People get insulted and even ANGRY when that happens. To use a sports movie analogy, it’s like cheering for Hickory to lose at the end of Hoosiers. This kind of mentality is hurting Oscar a whole hell of a lot more than whatever politics, real or imagined, might be at play.
To be fair, smaller budget/smaller box office films have won enough times in recent years that it’s harder to get excited for it.
The Patriots were upstart underdogs when Brady won his first Super Bowl. But they couldn’t keep calling themselves that forever.
But bigger picture, being ANGRY that a little film makes the BP field is kind of a weird escalation to my eyes. And watching film writers who used to bitterly decry dirty campaigning now openly driving that car has been disappointing to say the least. And no matter what one may think of EEAAO, the dirty campaigning being waged against it has crossed all kinds of lines many times.
I’m not sure I would fully agree with your analogy, because no one film gets nominated over and over like the Pats going to SB’s every other year for 20 years.
Each nominating season has about 10,000,000 different variables that steers the final nominations and results. As I’m fond of saying, to win you have to be the right film in the right place and you still need to be incredibly lucky more than anything.
Maybe a better analogy than the Patriots would be that if small town rural schools had been winning the championship about half the time for years, Hickory winning wouldn’t be all that exciting.
It shouldn’t be surprising that a lot of people only consider it “dirty” campaigning when it’s against a movie they like.
But just in general, getting angry about any of this is silly. It’s more enjoyable when we treat it like a fun game.
I am not putting a lot of hopes up for Daniels due to literally dont want to jinx them… lol. I can see Fields winning, then again if the voters are as spineless as we think, they’ll probably just go the safe route and go for Speilberg. It’s between those 3. but my call would be:
Heart Daniels
Head Fields
Actual winner Spielberg
I am not putting a lot of hopes up for Daniels due to literally dont want to jinx them… lol. I can see Fields winning, then again if the voters are as spineless as we think, they’ll probably just go the safe route and go for Speilberg. It’s between those 3. but my call would be:
Heart Daniels
Head Fields
Actual winner Spielberg
I really want Top Gun to win DGA… Not sure about the Daniels… In terms of Best Picture, everyone is afraid of Top Gun: Maverick winning… At the same time, I can’t find one person that I’ve spoken to that either doesn’t love or really likes that movie.
I mean – the CinemaScore A+ and Rotten Tomatoes don’t lie. It’s very well known and loved if not very well liked movie. So people will put it on a ton of Number 1 and Number 2s on their ballots. I am not certain that EEAAO has that same belovedness amongst the industry. That being said, if it wins DGA, then it will be difficult to stop. Not that Top Gun can’t win Best Picture without winning DGA but PGA is an absolute must for it.
I can find them for you, loads of them, starting right here.
And what – they hate it? What is there to hate?
What is there to like?
I hated everything about it. I don’t know anyone that thinks it’s anything above a pretty looking, yet mediocre action flick with a terrible screenplay.
I really want top gun maverick to win Dga and pga as well. If doesn’t happen Oscar’s are doomed for good. It was high class patriotic feel good movie. Tom cruise is the producer film. I always felt Tom cruise was the underdog movie star of the 80s, 90s and 2000s and never won as a actor. Jerry maguire is a classic romantic comedy/sports movie. Rain man is about a brother who finds devotion and love for his autistic brother. Risky business, he was the underdog graduate. Mission impossible is a great franchise based on a popular underrated spy series. The list goes on and on.
It will win absolutely none of those things.
ummm you sure about that? are you including the forums, social media, blogs, threads like this? or just you and your friends and family?
Unless the people you are talking to are actual Oscar voters – it’s a moot point. AMPAS snubbed it for acting, directing, cinematography.
As of late, Writing is much important than Directing, Acting or Cinematography when determining the Best Picture Winner so those snubs don’t mean much. It actually has a shot in Best Adapted Screenplay.
What film has won Best Picture recently – without Directing AND Acting nods?
Grand Hotel in 1932 — back when there were only three nominees in directing and acting.
Grand Hotel in 1932 — back when there were only three nominees in directing and acting.
It has no shot in Screenplay. Ridiculous
“so those snubs don’t mean much”
Oh, come on! Writing is much more important, but ONLY WHEN there are either acting or directing nominations to begin with. (And, almost always, both are required.) Since the 5th Oscars, when there were no supporting categories and just 3 nominees each in both Best Actor and Best Actress (so 6 acting nominations, in total, as opposed to 20), a movie has not won BP without both.
Let’s just see what happens. Stats are good to look at but this year could be different. DGA would be cool to win but I am truly looking at PGA next week. Top Gun: Maverick’s best shot to win is there so if it fails to win there, I’ll concede it’s over.
If EEAAO also wins SAG Ensemble, as is expected by almost everybody, a rule on 9/9 all-time says it will also win the PGA. Beatable, perhaps… But not easy to beat, it seems. 🙂
If EEAAO also wins SAG Ensemble, as is expected by almost everybody, a rule on 9/9 all-time says it will also win the PGA. Beatable, perhaps… But not easy to beat, it seems. 🙂
If the snubs didn’t mean much, we wouldn’t count cases such as CODA, Green Book, and Argo as exceptions.
Top Gun: Maverick was ignored by the Academy in directing and acting. Tom Cruise couldn’t get enough support in a surprisingly weak lead actor category (where there were practically six-seven contenders for five slots).
The film was snubbed by the DPs even though it had been considered a clear front-runner.
And the lack of SAG love would make it the first film since Braveheart to win with no SAG nods. Plus, it would be the first film since the 1940s to win Best Picture with no directing, writing, or acting wins (not even nominated in two of the three fields). So yeah…
I really want Top Gun to win DGA… Not sure about the Daniels… In terms of Best Picture, everyone is afraid of Top Gun: Maverick winning… At the same time, I can’t find one person that I’ve spoken to that either doesn’t love or really likes that movie.
I mean – the CinemaScore A+ and Rotten Tomatoes don’t lie. It’s very well known and loved if not very well liked movie. So people will put it on a ton of Number 1 and Number 2s on their ballots. I am not certain that EEAAO has that same belovedness amongst the industry. That being said, if it wins DGA, then it will be difficult to stop. Not that Top Gun can’t win Best Picture without winning DGA but PGA is an absolute must for it.
Field is coming for that DGA award. I will not lose hope.
He’ll probably win BAFTA and the Oscar. Not so sure about DGA but that would be cool indeed. Definitely would put a fork in EEAAO’s BP chances. It won’t hurt Top Gun nearly as much.
Really? How would it hurt EEAAO?
And of course, Top Gun stans pretend nothing will hurt it, not even failing to get major nods (in multiple categories) and losing all major precursors so far.
It’s not about how many nominations do you get, it’s about which key ones and how many would you actually win.
I’m not even a fan of TAR, but I’d still rather have Field win over Spielberg
How come many pundits picked Spielberg? I thought they always took BAFTA’S into account? Or it is based on Golden Globes??? I hope they are all wrong. I think Daniel’s are going to take DGA.
The Fabelmans wasn’t even released in the UK prior to BAFTA voting. So, it’s entirely possible that not enough people saw it when they did longlist and shortlist voting. Or they’re just not into it.
The things is we don’t know the crossover membership is. I guess Spielberg is toast if crossover membership is significant.
This is excellent information.
TAR wasn’t released either, yet it managed to show up..!
They had access to the film. It was longlisted in multiple categories.
Didn’t it get Screenplay nomination? I thought that was the only nomination it got at BAFTA. That’s not surprising since that category has more room than other categories.
The only reason to back Spielberg is because I think The Fabelmans has a much bigger chance of winning PGA than Everything, as absurd as it sounds. And it’s all to do with Everything Everywhere under performance at GG, where it failed to win BP, BD and Screenplay. PGA loves GG and only The Hurt Locker and The King’s Speech won OGA win first winning top honours at GG. But still think the Daniels win the Oscar, no matter who wins the DGA.
I believe GG is becoming less and less relevant over the years.
It might be, we’ll have to see that first before we know if that’s really the case.
HFPA has about 100 members, so it is a small pool of people too. So we’ll see.
“The red meat pick trumping the more female-oriented, feel-good movie. Is that likely to happen?”
One could make a pretty strong argument that Paul Dano was the focal character in Little Miss Sunshine and of course Alan Arkin won the Oscar as well.
Either way, Departed had a directing and an acting nomination. Top Gun has neither. I’m hearing “but CODA and Argo didn’t have directing nominations”, conveniently overlooking their acting nominations. And even when Spotlight won just the two Oscars (script and BP), it had a Directing nomination AND two acting nominations. Top Gun would have to break a LOT of stats to win BP, and frankly if it were this kind of juggernaut, why did it miss SAG and acting and directing nominations to begin with?
The two BEST directors aren’t here at all (Cameron and Rajamouli), so whoever wins will have this next to it:
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c63490d4bec57d7ce53f3e61cadc61a21ba6eb466d24b8dc673e181b5493b669.png
Well, to balance it out they DO have the opposite of the best choice with Mr Kosinski.
If Spielberg wins, it should be considered a huge upset. As many have pointed out, his film is, at best, finishing third. Heck, I think he should finish fifth in this list of five and I doubt I am the only one.
If he gets the Oscar for Best Director and the film wins nothing else, it would be one of those standout anomalies tossed around for decades to come.
If Spielberg won, it would be the equivalence of life time achievement Oscar.
it would be the equivalence of groupthink stupidity
I total agree.
Absolutely God damn right !
Like how ”The Power of the Dog” won Best Director and nothing else last year?
(What’s more, it LED with the most Oscar nominations, 12, and almost got shut out.)
It’s possible that Spielberg wins Best Director at the Oscars for both directing ”The Fabelmans,” his autobiographical film, AND for lifetime achievement. He’s won only 2 directing Oscars, and the last time was for ”Saving Private Ryan” (1998), about 25 years ago. As for lifetime achievement, what a legacy: There’s also ”Jaws,” ”Close Encounters of the Third Kind,” ”E.T.,” ”Raiders of the Lost Ark,” ” The Color Purple,” etc. Who else has a film resume that’s affected pop culture like that? Frankly, if I were an Academy voter, Spielberg would’ve won LAST year for his dynamic ”West Side Story.”
oops what a short memory! But I guess Campion got that make up Oscar she should have won for The Piano. Yes, The Piano.
Two of his best films Amistad and Empire of the Sun he thought weren’t very good because they didn’t make any money ! I guess you could say the same thing about West Slide Story and The Fabelmans ! As for lifetime achievement award that usually goes to someone who for one reason or another has never been recognized ! Steven Spielberg does not fit that description ! Same thing goes for John Williams if he wins for The Fabelmans !
Campion won Everywhere so it was harder for her not to win. But there was no alternative as all the others were even weaker than The Power of The Dog. The only way Campion could’ve possibly lost was if Villeneuve had been nominated. That was a possible upset, but it probably would’ve still gave required Dune winning Best Picture to deny Campion. The Power of The Dog died at the finish line and it was due to a combination of Campion errors and CODA fever.
Head says Daniels yet my heart would love to see Field get it and ride it to an Oscar.
I’m the opposite, head says Field but I think the Daniels are going to win something on Oscar night.
Just came to share my impressions after seeing the majority of BP nominees (still have to watch Elvis and Fabelmans). I didnt find this year particularly interesting….there´s only 1 film i loved (Triangle of sadness) and 1 i really liked very much (Tar). For the first time in years i pretty much agree with Sammy haha. Really struggling to predict this year BP winner as i can´t see any of the frontrunners doing well under preferential ballot, i guess my choice would be Fabelmans though i havent seen it yet. Still cant believe Decision to Leave didnt make the cut, it´s a shame it wasnt seen by enough voters, should have been nominated for BP, BD, actress, screenplay, editing and cinematography IMHO.
This is kinda where I’m at. For the most part, the BP nominees are very good. Even the weakest ones that I’ve seen (still need to watch AQotWF) are totally fine, if flawed or not particularly compelling. There’s nothing as egregious as Don’t Look Up or Bohemian Rhapsody, but there are only two or three nominees that I find exciting as potential winners.
I would have nominated Amsterdam , Armageddon Time , and Babylon ! But what do I know I loved Heavens Gate !