Because of the way things have gone lately in the past two or three years, we’re in uncharted territory. I will attempt to explain a theory of mine that is somewhat controversial. By that, I mean no one cares about it even a little bit. No one notices it. No one talks about it. No one cares about it. I seem to be the only person who has ever discussed it. Considering that the coverage of the Oscars has now become a bigger industry than the Oscars themselves, that’s saying a lot. No one cares about it even a little bit? NOPE.
I’m talking about “the date change.” To me, two things influence the Oscar race: the voting window and the order of the awards. These two concepts directly relate to two other concepts that I believe are the most important when it comes to predicting or analyzing the Oscar race: human nature and the consensus.
My old friend David Carr used to love the analogy I would sometimes use of Oscar voting being like fertility tracking. If you’re trying to get pregnant, you know that you can do all of these things in advance of the fertility window — but none of it really matters because ultimately it’s about those few days a month when an egg can be fertilized.
In the case of the Oscar race, months of preparation, publicity, interviews, red carpet appearances, social media posts, scandals and controversy, good news and bad news, talk show appearances, news stories, critics awards, award shows — it all leads up to that tiny window where the voters vote.
The date of the Oscars does matter. When I first started, the Oscars were held in late March. There wasn’t a whole industry around them like there is now. I was part of that industry that tracked awards all year, not just in February and March, like it used to be. That means that movies were released to the public and their success was measured by how many people saw the movies.
At some point, though, opening weekend box office became the measure of success. If a film couldn’t “open,” it would be done when it came to the Oscars. That sometimes still happens. It happened this cycle with She Said, where its disappointing box office all but snuffed out its awards prospects.
The Academy made the decision to shift the date up by one month, from late March to late February. That meant the whole season had to be shifted forward, with the earliest awards coming in late November. That meant it didn’t really matter whether a film did well at the box office — the awards race would now mostly be decided at film festivals, at screenings, and at parties.
Usually, the whole thing would be coming to an end right now. Oscar Sunday would be this Sunday. Instead, we’re getting the Producers Guild and the SAG Awards this weekend.
Oscar voting starts in one week and lasts from March 2nd to March 7th. Theoretically, there is enough time for a consensus shift. That only happens if people don’t feel good about the frontrunner winning. They sometimes want to find an alternative. This is how Parasite beat 1917 and how CODA beat The Power of the Dog, not to mention Green Book beating Roma. Figuring out what movie people don’t want to vote for is often as useful as figuring out what they DO want to vote for.
And that’s where human nature comes in. This is, by far, the hardest part of figuring out how the Oscars are going to go. This weekend will give us a good idea about where the consensus is right now. If any other film wins the PGA or SAG ensemble than Everything Everywhere All at Once, then we might have a race for Best Picture.
We’re also heading into the SAG Awards not knowing how the acting categories are going to go. It’s not a straight line either. Just because someone wins the SAG doesn’t mean they will go on to win the Oscar. We’ve seen too many surprise winners at the Oscars to depend too much on the SAG.
But here is what we know:
If Cate Blanchett wins the SAG, she’s winning the Oscar. She’s already locked in with Globes/Critics Choice/BAFTA.
If Michelle Yeoh wins the SAG, she MIGHT win the Oscar. So far, she has only won at the Globes.
If Austin Butler wins the SAG, he’s winning the Oscar (Globes/BAFTA)
If Brendan Fraser wins the SAG, he is probably winning the Oscar (Critics Choice)
If Angela Bassett wins the SAG, she is probably winning the Oscar (Globes/Critics Choice)
If Kerry Condon wins the SAG, she is definitely winning the Oscar (BAFTA)
If Everything Everywhere All at Once wins the PGA, it’s winning Best Picture. If it doesn’t, it’s potentially vulnerable.
If Top Gun: Maverick wins the Producers Guild, it has a chance to win Best Picture, though it would have to also win Adapted Screenplay, along with Sound + Editing.
Either way, I think it’s 95% probable (“because I know how much certainty freaks you guys out”) it’s a blowout for Everything Everywhere All at Once. The 5% doubt rests on whether it is divisive or not, and whether that divisveness will show up on the ranked choice (preferential) ballot. It’s hard to know since people seem to be too embarrassed to openly criticize it.
We’ve already posted our PGA predictions, now here are our SAG predictions:
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis — Clarence Moye, Sasha Stone, Mark Johnson, Ryan Adams
Brendan Fraser, The Whale — Marshall Flores
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, TAR — Stone, Adams, Moye
Michelle Yeoh, EEAAO — Johnson, Flores
Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, EEAAO — Stone, Adams, Johnson, Moye, Flores
Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon, Banshees of Inisherin — Stone, Moye, Adams
Angela Bassett, Black Panther Wakanda Forever — Johnson, Flores
Ensemble
Everything Everywhere All at Once — Moye, Johnson, Flores
The Banshees of Inisherin — Stone, Adams
Stunt Ensemble
The Woman King — Johnson, Moye, Adams
Top Gun: Maverick — Stone, Flores
And here are my Oscar predictions as they stand now:
Best Picture
Everything Everywhere All at Once (if it wins PGA/SAG)
Top Gun: Maverick (If it wins PGA)
The Fabelmans (if it wins the SAG/PGA)
The Banshees of Inisherin (if it wins PGA/SAG)
All Quiet on the Western Front
Tár
Elvis
Women Talking
Avatar: The Way of Water
Triangle of Sadness
Best Director
Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tár
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ruben Östlund, Triangle of Sadness
Best Actor
Austin Butler, Elvis (If he wins the SAG)
Brendan Fraser, The Whale (If he wins the SAG)
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Supporting Actress
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Hong Chau, The Whale
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Adapted Screenplay
Women Talking
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Living
Original Screenplay
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
The Fabelmans
Triangle of Sadness
Best Editing
Top Gun: Maverick
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Tár
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Best Cinematography
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Tár
Empire of Light
Bardo
Best Costume Design
Elvis
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
Best Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Elvis
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Fabelmans
Sound
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
Elvis
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Visual Effects
Avatar: The Way of Water
Top Gun: Maverick
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Makeup and Hairstyling
Elvis
The Whale
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Best Original Score
The Fabelmans
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Babylon
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Song
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR or “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Applause” from Tell It like a Woman
“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“This Is a Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best International Feature
All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany
Argentina, 1985, Argentina
Close, Belgium
EO, Poland
The Quiet Girl, Ireland
Best Documentary
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Fire of Love
Navalny
All That Breathes
A House Made of Splinters
Animated Feature
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
Animated Short
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It
The Flying Sailor
My Year of Dicks
Ice Merchants
Live Action Short
An Irish Goodbye
The Red Suitcase
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
Documentary Short
The Elephant Whisperers
How Do You Measure a Year?
Haulout
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
“The date of the Oscars does matter. When I first started, the Oscars were held in late March. There wasn’t a whole industry around them like there is now. I was part of that industry that tracked awards all year, not just in February and March, like it used to be. That means that movies were released to the public and their success was measured by how many people saw the movies.”
I highlight this entire paragraph THIS IS WHAT IS MISSING in awards season.
I also want to add this the WOKE brigade and all far too many sympathetic woke- minority within awards season guilds and oscars voting bloc- you can argoe EXPLOIT failure and it IS for film like EEAAO to not even be able to make 100 million at box office SHOULD BE MINIMUM barometer for independent film of that calibre! but by failing to do so enables seemingly seems ot be sinister pattern amongst SAG AFTRA/ PGA AND DGA mixed hybrid voting experimental model reforms- where they pine for cheer for and applaud get beyind the ‘little film that could’ well bluntly franlkly the ‘little film that could’ has been given TOO MUCH POWER ina wards season..aided and abetted by their accomplice in the academy and the guilds.
It culture where i utterly convinced of this A24 is becoming pretty damn lucrative even within the small independent film industry it getting lot bigger while not in calibre at all of big film studios- not just a 24 but the profit hog of netflix etc.. what EXACTLY DO THEY FEAR BY PUTTING THEIR MONEY WHERE THEIR BIG EGOS AND MOUTH IS AND ACTUALLY RISKING EXPANDING TO MORE SCREENS THAN THEY DID? TO REALLY PUT TO GENUINE TEST SAY STAYING POWER OF EEAAO WHICH WE NEVER REALLY SAW OR STAYING POWER ESP WHEN NETFLIX/ A24 OTHER STREAMING PROFITABLE ORGANISATION GET OSCAR CONTENDER THEY OWE IT TO US FOR FUK SAKE TO EXPAND THEIR RELEASE HELL DO A SAMN RERELEASE OF EEAAO – IT SEEMS THERE HIGH DEGREE OF UTTER COWARDICE ON PART THESE ORGANISATIONS TO REALLY PUT THEIR MONEY AND TAKE A CHANCE ALLOW US PROPERLY ACCESS AND EXPERIENCE THESE FILMS.
NOW LET KILLS THIS DEBATE ONCE AND FOR ALL.. EEAAO HAS FLASHY EFFECTS- TOO MUCH 14 MILLION BUDGET SURE IT NOT MUCH BUT TAKE COCAINE BEAR SURE WONT BE OSCAR CONTENDER UNLESS IT ABSOLUTE OUT THERE HIT AND IT FEMALE FILMMAKER MIGHT WELL DESERVE NOMINATION AT BEST IF OSCAR GO THAT PATH BUT COCAINE BEAR BUDGET DESPITE MOST OF IT PROB ON CREATING THE BEAR SURELY CANNOT BE THAT EXPENSIVE IT STANDS STRONG CHANCE FOR NATURE THAT FILM WITH IT GROTESQUE VIOLENCE AND TWISTED DRUG INDUCED COMEDY/ HORROR CROWD TO SURPASS EEAAO GROSS BEFORE END OF THAT FILMS SHELF LIFE.
EEAAO IF IT REALLY HAS TRULY MADE SUCH LASTING IMPRESSION SHOULD HAVE BLUNTLY…GIVEN IT HYBRID OF TRY HARD SCI FI/ COMEDY/ WITH COOL EFFECTS AND ATTRACTIVE SCENES HAD POTENTIAL TO SHOULD BEEN A HUNDRED MILLION PLUS SUCCESS IN AMERICA, AND SHOULD HAVE TRIPLED THAT OVERSEAS SO WHY DIDN’T IT?
ANSWER IS SIMPLE-= STREAMING COMPANIES RELEASE THESE OR INDEPENDENT CINEMA WANT YOU TO THINK THEY CRY POOR BUT HOW POOR ARE THEY REALLY? IF FILM LIKE EEAAO CAN BE MADE ON THAT BUDGET AND GIVEN IT KEYS INTO PARODY POOR ONE AT THAT OF MATRIX, POKES FUN AT LOVED DC EVEN MORE LOVED MCU, SERIOUSLY HOW IS IT THEN IT ONLY MADE 70 MILL DOMESTIC AND ONLY 100 MIL OVERSEAS AND IF FILMMAKERS AND COMAPNY MOREOVER A24 WILLING TO RELEASE ON MORE SCREENS? WHY DIDNT THEY? THEY HAD JOE RUSSO FFS AS PRODUCER OF ONE BIGGEST TRILOGIES IN CINEMA ACENGERS/ ULTRON/ INFINITY WAR/ ENDGAME! SO I REMAIN HENCE AS WE ALL SHOULD MOST UNCONVINCED EEAAO IS DESERVING BEST PIC FAVOURITE COS FILM COMPANIES COULD NOT BE BOTHER TRYING MAKE IT BIGGER FILM THAN IT ENDED UP BEING COS THEY KNOIW HOW TO FRANKLY GAME THE AWARD SEASON SYSTEM..ONLY BY OSCAR AND GUILDS HAVING GUMPTION STAND UP FOR TRUE CINEMA PROWESS AND POTENTIAL AS IN LIKE OF TOP GUN MAVERICK, FABLEMANS, ELVIS, EVEN TAR, AND AGAINST NOISY MINORITY WITHIN THAT SEEMS ONLY WAY TO CURTAIL THE EXTRAORINARY DANGEROUS POWER INDEPENDENT FILM STUDIOS BEEN GIVEN AND IT IS ALSO AS SASHA STATES TO DO WITH FUKING AROUND WITH DATE SHOULD BE LATE MARCH NOT EARLY MARCH!
Lmfao
This sort of Bruckheimer apologia is almost word for word the DIVISIVE rhetoric from Film Twitter’s vulgar auteurist bloc. Is film culture DOOMED to reflect the radical opinions of TWITTER users? Top Gun 2 cannot be allowed to give Vulgar Auteurist FILM TWITTER the power they have not earned by blogging for multiple decades. They have only been blogging for ONE decade! What’s next, Paul W.S. Anderson winning Best Director for In The Lost Lands as we look on, helpless? Scott Atkins presiding over the Cannes jury in 2025? This would mean the absolute DEATH of motion pictures all over planet EARTH. FILM TWITTER!
A write-in campaign for the classical, adorkable Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris is the only way for the Oscars to reward movie magic.
This sort of Bruckheimer apologia is almost word for word the DIVISIVE rhetoric from Film Twitter’s vulgar auteurist bloc. Is film culture DOOMED to reflect the radical opinions of TWITTER users? Top Gun 2 cannot be allowed to give Vulgar Auteurist FILM TWITTER the power they have not earned by blogging for multiple decades. They have only been blogging for ONE decade! What’s next, Paul W.S. Anderson winning Best Director for In The Lost Lands as we look on, helpless? Scott Atkins presiding over the Cannes jury in 2025? This would mean the absolute DEATH of motion pictures all over planet EARTH. FILM TWITTER!
A write-in campaign for the classical, adorkable Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris is the only way for the Oscars to reward movie magic.
LMFAO go watch another Todd Haynes movie, weirdo
Which Todd Haynes movie do you recommend?
I’m Not There. One of the best films of this century.
“God, I’m glad I’m not me.”
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c9293ae5294c30f48ef030e19ab4e71c7cd86f7c93c6ead8f69108f42dc4f018.gif
Get a sense of humor, halfwit.
Bruckeheimer has done very well with movies he’s made. There all great art and quality films.
Talk around Mr Bruckheimer has reminded me of All About Eve’s opening minutes where our critic character (DeWitt if I’m not mistaken) talks about 2 sorts of producers:
One that makes art and the other who makes money.
Perhaps it’s just me but rooting for Mr Bruckheimer and his film is rooting for a money maker who couldn’t give a flying fart about art and quality with his billion selling and mostly Razzie worthy body of work standing as witness (And having a few decent films like current supposed “savior of cinema” does NOT justify rewarding him or his legacy).
Deja Vu > All About Eve
Hell yes!
Cocaine Bear opened with $8.5m yesterday as Ant Man Quantumania still ruled the roost and will finish #1 per weekend estimates. CB #2.
Ceremony in DECEMBER, Joe? Cutoff date October? This REEKS.
I see this as one more method to freeze out mainstream potential 4-quadrant hits for Oscars altogether which are released in December. Avatar’s next 3 films are slated for December release. This plan would only benefit arthouse-heavy fare. No. Calendar year is fine and the only fair way.
Blockbuster films are going to do well no matter what. They don’t need “help” being released because they’re subsidized by major studios with massive advertising campaigns that guarantee returns for the most part. These art house films – the ones you hate simply for existing rather than any actual reason lol – those are the ones that need help so people can actually see them. The creators of the indie films you hate so much today are often times the ones directing the VFX spectacular spectaculars you adore tomorrow
Is International feature really in alphabetical order again?
Seems so but unlike previously (from what I recall, the same happened last year), I’d say the alphabetical ranking is correct. All Quiet on the Western Front seems like an obvious winner, its closest challenger would be Argentina, 1985 as it won the Globe, then you have the supposedly very emotional and approachable Close, then EO which despite its more highbrow/surrealistic qualities still has been talked about a lot this season, and then The Quiet Girl which is very good but seems the least likely to actually win here because it’s the one most people seem to have heard the least about
PGA preferential order prediction (we’ll never know):
EEAaO
Top Gun 2
Avatar 2
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Wakanda Forever
The Banshees of Inisherin
Tár
Glass Onion
The Whale
If Fraser wins SAG, what once was a three-way race with Butler and Farrell, becomes a two-man race between Fraser and Butler. If Farrell, who was heavily predicted to win at BAFTA on his home turf, couldn’t win there, his Oscar chances don’t look great. Especially when ”Banshees” won 4 BAFTAs, including Best British Film, plus Keoghan and Condon. If Fraser wins SAG (and gives another teary speech, like he did at Critics Choice), he’d gain more momentum, and we’d have a real nail-biter on March 12. Of the past 8 winners of Best Actor at SAG, 6 of them went on to win the Oscar. But of the past 8 winners of Best Actor at BAFTA, ALL 8 went on to win the Oscar.
Fraser is really being a drag with so called teary speeches. At HCA he gave long ass 5 mins one lol
Top Gun: Maverick just feels right to win the PGA. Let’s see. Nervous but excited at the same time.
Reports of Angela Bassett’s demise are greatly exaggerated; she’s still the safe bet.
I think late February/early March is fine, but also agree that starting the award season late November/early December is not good. Maybe just a tighter schedule? There was a three week stretch between announcing the nominations and the DGA Awards. Probably not necessary.
I like the 3-months or so arrangement: that’s why it’s called a SEASON! Critics weigh in in December, industry nominations in January, industry prizes in February, Oscars in March so they can take in everything that happened prior and make their decisions accordingly.
The only issue this year is the 3 main guilds and BAFTA were all scheduled over the last 2 weekends of February, hence the lull in the schedule and the frantic pace at the end. They should have one weekend each to keep us entertained and guessing all season through.
SAG is the last chance for Michelle Yeoh. I am very happy that so many people are predicting her to win it but I am also very nervous.
Good observation on date changes as do wonder SAGs coming after BAFTA might shift things a bit. I keep wondering if Critic’s Choice hadn’t been delayed last year, would Chastain still have won Best Actress there or delay give her time to build up support.
Here, some voters might be following BAFTA or trying to be on their own so BAFTA could only be outlier. It’s harder to tell, especially on the shifting leading races as I think Fraser has lost some buzz and Butler on the rise while Blanchett and Yeoh remain tight, even with Blanchett more momentum.
I’m going on SAGs with…
Picture: EEAAO
Director: Daniels, EEAAO (possibly Field)
Actor: Butler
Actress: Yeoh (although good chance of Blanchett, who I still see winning Oscar)
Supporting Actor: Quan
Supporting Actress: Bassett (prefer Condon)
Condon was incredible, she held the movie together <3.
Edit: She represented the audience in the movie I guess
I’d kind of prefer her yet can’t shake feeling Academy is thinking of Bassett as “career Oscar,” even if it’s for a Marvel movie.
I do suspect Bassett & JLC will split the career vote. JLC and Hsu will split the EEAAO vote. Condon has a real good chance here to win it all.
Would be nice as she was the best performance of the five.
Highly subjective. Hsu arguably gave the best of the bunch.
I still am on team Hsu at the moment, but votes will be definitely split between Hsu and JLC.
Condon’s performance is no less brilliant IMHO. I will be very happy if any of these two women win.
JLC is sure doing a lot of splitting!
That would be true vote splitting, but I have my doubts about it going down that way.
Edited: If JLC splits two sets of votes, that might actually work in her favor. More votes for her overall.
COCAINE BEAR is a better movie than Everything Everywhere.
In the Cocaine bear universe I can see that
#recencybias
I finally watched All Quiet on the Western Front, and wowow I was impressed by every aspect of this film. It immediately jumped to #2 behind EEAAO and above Avatar:WOW for me. I do suspect it has a great chance to upset if enough people watch the film.
Seems like Netflix really messed up the PR
My ranked choice at this time:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Tár
The Banshees of Inisherin
Top Gun: Maverick
The Fabelmans
Women Talking
Triangle of Sadness
Elvis
All Quiet is a stunner, amazing not as much hype for it and ends up being spectacular.
I think I’d have liked All Quiet a lot more if I hadn’t read the book. It might work if I watched it again and just viewed it as its own thing rather than an adaptation.
And if Deadwyler, Farrell and Curtis win SAG awards?
And TAR wins the PGA?Deadwyler winning SAG and Riseborough’s presence in Oscars might give some hope for Yeoh even if Blanchett wider support.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/43c0f71c449a28d90f8a55950961dbcb4f8f09cff78955d9c0ffcc2901b39a22.gif
https://media3.giphy.com/media/frQ5STPZcGCXe/giphy.gif
Even if Blanchett takes SAG, then again Yeoh can make this happen. Dont forget that!
Yea…nah!
If Yeoh can’t get AFTRA on her side, she won’t get AMPAS.
She doesn’t have the international support.
Winning Oscar after missing CC, BAFTA, SAG and other guilds? Very, very unlikely. Even more recent upsets (Colman, Hopkins) at least had something like BAFTA to show support.
The only real shot for Yeoh is if the Riseborough “controversy” siphons votes from Blanchett to let her slip in but otherwise, even if she gets SAG, likely Blanchett wins Oscar, she just has more widespread support.
I don’t think Andrea’s drama will siphon any votes from Blanchett.
BTW, finally took a chance to watch Babylon on Paramount Plus and….wow. Just wow, deserves every bit of scorn it gets, I can’t believe studio couldn’t step in to try and stop this from going so nuts and expecting a hit.
Supporting actress has often times been a relative newcomer, someone at the heart of the film.
Thinking Juliette Binoche, Mira Sorvino, Penélope Cruz, Alicia Vikander.
I could see a Kerrie Condon win here in IMHO.
Kerry Condon isn’t a name movie star, but calling her a “relative newcomer” is a big stretch. She’s been working in Hollywood for the better part of two decades, and has been in both an HBO show and the MCU.
And Ray Donovan.
If u go by that logic – wouldn’t that literally be Hsu??
I don’t feel like Juliette Binoche was much of a newcomer. By then she’d been in Unbearable Lightness of Being, Damage, and The Three Colors Trilogy.
Now I realize that today, if you are not very well-versed in movies, you’d think that maybe those are irrelevant movies.
But Unbearable Lightness of Being is insanely good. And probably the sexiest Daniel Day Lewis has ever been. If anyone’s not seen it, you must. You will love it. (Please realize this recommendation is coming from me so your mileage may vary. Hint: It ain’t Star Wars.
And I’d vote for the Three Colors Trilogy as the best trilogy in movies after the Godfathers.
It was still a shock as just about everyone figured Bacall as the “career Oscar” then Binoche looking more stunned than anyone to hear her name called. Am happy for that, however, she was marvelous in the film.
Back then it seems like every year there was another career Oscar given out. That one seemed to break that trend. We still get them, but not as often (or so it seems)
White just isn’t good enough compared to Blue and Red.
yeah, it’s definitely a weak link, but, I still think it was good enough to not distract from the other two. Plus it’s great to see Julie Delpy in anything.
Um…Penélope Cruz was about as far from being a “relative newcomer” as one can be when she won for Vicky Cristina Barcelona.
And Binoche a good resume under her belt when she upset Bacall.
True but the same category has also been where Academy tries to give a token statue to a person of color to make up for some screw-up and this year they have one of their biggest ones (With their stupid and regrettable omission of both Ms Davis and Deadwyler).
Kerry Condon is 40 and has been acting in movies for 24 years, but she thanks you for considering her a relative newcomer. And yes, she deserves to win.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/afef3a068400fdc59305c704013f0dfd1477334b7b99fd7fd746d4bfd1b172b8.gif
Performance should precede the narrative, period! For me, Condon was the best part of the movie. Can’t believe people are going for a mediocre Marvel performance over Kerry’s heartbreaking one.
Hope Academy won’t make a mistake awarding Bassett, Yeoh – Token winners.
She should though, way better performance than Basett
Erp… I accidentally turned off comments on this page for a few minutes — but now my clumsy mistake is fixed.
https://www.awardsdaily.com/2023/02/24/2023-oscar-predictions-a-make-or-break-weekend/#comment-6123616290
I thought maybe you somehow knew I was going to use the word ‘intellitard’
Used in a sentence… “If you don’t like Cocaine Bear, you must be an intellitard.”
My rankings with the best picture nominees
1. Top Gun: Maverick 10 out of 10
2. The Banshees of Inisherin 8 out of 10
3. All Quiet on the Western Front 8 out of 10
4. The Fabelmans 8 out of 10(Big Spielberg fan)
5. Women Talking 7 out of 10
6. Tar. 7 out of 10
7. Triangle of Sadness 6 out of 10
8. Elvis. 5 out of 10
9. Everything Everywhere All at once. 5 out of 10
10. Avatar: the way of water. 5 out of 10
Here’s something to help the Oscar Televised Ceremony be good for America: why not have an incredibly New Years Eve style ball drop throughout the ceremony that reveals a big poster of the Best Picture winner when it makes eventually cracks against the stage, like a glamorous egg?? The lights in the Dolby Theatre could go wild when the Oscar Egg gets within a few inches of colliding with the floor.
Girl this is not a drag show
it should be
I will be the change I want to see in the world.
🙂
Hopefully Cate and Austin continue their trajectory to winning…easily the best and most complex peformances of the year.
Agreed. Austin was just another level through 3 totally different periods, on and off the stage
Because of the way things have gone in Tinseltown over the past two hundred twenty-four days, we’re in uncharted territory. I will attempt to explain an aspect of concrete reality that is, somehow, controversial. What do I mean? I mean, simply, that no one outside of Hollywood understands it. No one who isn’t immersed in the world of movie stars and showbiz glam acknowledges it. No one blogs about it. No one choreographs fun dances for TikTok to explain it. I seem to be the only internet comment entity who brings it up all the time. Considering that commenting on coverage of the Oscars has now become a hotter industry than covering the Oscars themselves, I’m probably the most courageous person on Earth just by typing about it! No one else wants to type a bunch of words about it, hmm? Only me? I mean, I’ll type the words right now. First I need to type even more words saying how special this observation is. This is really going to blow your minds. Get ready. Are you ready? You are not ready. There is no way to adequately prepare for the unprecedented and dangerously revelatory bombshell I am soon to drop in this comment.
I’m talking about “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris fever.” To me, two things influence the Oscar Trophy Awards: word of mouth and whether or not a movie has received an Oscar nomination. These two concepts, observed by many yet understood by few, dovetail with two others of the utmost import when it comes to predicting who will get to possess Oscar gold: Tinseltown and movie magic. Everyone in Tinseltown is abuzz over the movie magic of Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris. Hollywoodians from moguls to gofers cannot stop quoting the film. Every backlot in town is brimming with appreciation for the costume design and could not be more eager to see the film rewarded on Oscar Night. One legendary director, unnamed to protect my sources, has been inspired to burn mix CDs of playlists inspired by the film’s unique style and majesty..
IMO MHGTP =
MIGHT MOP (UP)
You’re like the new Watermelons. I miss Watermelons.
Watermelons? Watermelons… Now, that’s name I’ve not heard in a long time. A long time.
IYKYK https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8f0332b8eef60b2fb84fc0ac608b832eadbd88b8cb77832846f5b443e27ac34b.gif
It’s a very clever strategy: by eschewing nominations, the film avoids any possibility of a backlash. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4640a9b456e964e72bd2ffce075ec46f694b9fd5d59231a08c61ded8dfd2162b.gif
Here are my predictions, as well as my favorites in brackets.
Best Picture EEAAO
Best Director Daniels, EEAAO (Should have been James Cameroon smdh)
Best Actor Austin Butler, Elvis (Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin)
Best Actress Cate Blanchett, Tár (Michelle Yeoh, EEAAO)
Supporting ActorKe Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Supporting Actress Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin (Stephanie Hsu EEAAO)
Adapted Screenplay All Quiet on the Western Front
Original Screenplay Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Editing Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best CinematographyAll Quiet on the Western Front
Best Costume Design Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris)
Best Production Design Avatar: The Way of Water (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Sound Top Gun: Maverick (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Visual Effects Avatar: The Way of Water
Makeup and Hairstyling Elvis (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Best Original Score All Quiet on the Western Front
Best Song “Naatu Naatu” from RRR (“Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Best International Feature All Quiet on the Western Front, Germany (I didnt see all the nominees)
Best DocumentaryAll the Beauty and the Bloodshed (All That Breathes)
Animated Feature Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Marcel the Shell With Shoes On)
I havent caught up with the shorts yet.
I see your point about the dates of voting actually. However there was a key part of the Oscar schedule equation that rarely gets discussed, namely the NCAA basketball tournament. I’m old enough to remember the 1987 ceremony when Michael Douglas and Sonia Braga were presenting Live Action Short and Braga announced in Portuguese that Indiana had defeated Syracuse in the title game by one point (my sisters were attending IU so that was exciting). How many of you remember when the ceremony was on a Monday night? It got moved to avoid competing against the title game. But then March Madness moved one week later in the month because the conference qualifying tourneys started making big coin. So for about 15 years there would be tourney games during the day on Sunday and Oscar at night. But then with tourney being simulcast on five networks all of a sudden you had MULTIPLE games on the Sunday night when Oscar would usually have the room all to themselves. Thus the move to late February/early March. So don’t expect that part of things to ever change, and forget moving to January because NFL football is weekend television.
What’s extra tricky for Oscar is that the microscopic window between a theatrical run and VOD/Streaming is so ridiculously short even for hit movies save for obviously three of the nominees (Everything/Top Gun/Avatar) that no movie can get momentum even if its of high artistic quality and popular support. I think it actually might be high time to consider having the ceremony in DECEMBER with an October cut off date for eligibility. You’d be out of the way of a lot of sports and the movies wouldn’t have faded so much into obscurity at that point.
I actually kind of like the unpredictability we’re seeing though.