This year, the stats aren’t likely to help guide you when it comes to predictions. Predictions are something you’re going to have to FEEL, like SOME MOVIES YOU FEEL. That’s slightly harder to do if you spend a lot of time on Twitter, because Twitter is a vibe. Increasingly, though, Twitter and the Oscar race are becoming one in the same vibe, much like Twitter and politics. It’s the water cooler but it’s also the panopticon that watches everyone, everywhere, all the time. Oh, if only art could tell the truth. The stories we could tell.
There are two realities. There is actual reality — what people say when no one can hear them — and there is our manufactured reality, the one we all pretend to go along with while being watched and monitored for thought crimes. Who will be the one found out today? Who will say the wrong thing, back the wrong movie, like the wrong tweet, vote for the wrong person.
So much of what we’re navigating through in the acting races this year seems to revolve around everything but what it should be about: how good the acting actually was. Of course, that’s subjective. What we respond to varies. Some people like non-performances, when they just reflect reality or minimalist expressions. Then there are people who like big, broad performances. Some measure greatness by level of difficulty, how different do they appear on screen compared to how they are in real life?
Ultimately, a great performance comes down to this:
Do you KNOW this person?
Do you BELIEVE this person?
A great performance takes you out of yourself and into the story.
But that’s isn’t really what we’re measuring this year. Some of it is. Some of it is just how the race has rolled out, the stories and narratives that have emerged. Some of it we can’t measure because we just don’t know. We have no idea how much influence BAFTA voters will have. We just know we have a completely different set of winners at BAFTA and SAG. And that is rare.
We’ve only seen one other time when the BAFTA voters almost completely rejected the consensus pick and that was in 2014 when Birdman won. But if you look at that year overall, there was a strong consensus. In fact, that year, the acting categories matched 100%:
But there was no doubt that Birdman had struck a chord with the industry here that didn’t really cross the pond. The consensus seemed to be with Boyhood, until the PGA whipped it around in a different direction, so it’s possible the BAFTA would have caught the wave. And in fact, they voted before the blitz of the PGA and SAG. It’s possible that if they were voting right now their picks might have been different. Who knows.
Either way, it is curious how unaligned things are this year and, really, the past few years. Much has happened both in our country and in the industry to account for these changes. Dramatic changes in voting at BAFTA, for one thing. An “inclusivity mandate” at the Oscars to take effect next year, and a near-complete overhaul of all institutions of power, including the film industry after the #MeToo and Black Lives Matter protests of 2020 (AKA “The Great Awokening”).
And let’s not forget the Golden Globes apocalypse which had them canceled, then putting themselves back together again with a network show on a weeknight. The Globes were good enough that they’ve got their weekend slot back again going forward.
The slow and painful death of Hollywood itself, disappointing box office for prestige films, a last minute rally for All Quiet on the Western Front, and the surprise success of Top Gun: Maverick have all been factors this year. But the biggest factor, without a doubt, is still identity. This isn’t just about race or even about gender — it’s about empathy and sympathy for those who exist on the margins. There seems to be a collective sentiment online to see Cinderella stories play out.
These are “Oscar stories,” like this:
Brendan Fraser on reuniting with his ENCINO MAN costar Ke Huy Quan this awards season: “I was effusive and I said, ‘We’re still here.’ He said, ‘That’s right, we are.’” https://t.co/FFa3KhQL4u pic.twitter.com/GY4wtzLfo2
— Kyle Buchanan (@kylebuchanan) March 1, 2023
I am sensing (and I’m sure you are too) that Brendan Fraser’s “Oscar story” is more compelling than Austin Butler’s because the role he plays ties into his own career somehow. There is an emotional hit people might get from seeing him win.
And then there’s Michelle Yeoh. After the story about Andrea Riseborough broke, Yeoh was the first to step up and defend her, and try to keep the focus more on their work and less on, say, inclusivity, as she told Deadline:
“I love [Viola and Danielle] to the extreme and wish we were all getting Oscars, but it’s tough,” she added. “It took me 40 years to even get a nomination. Every single actor and actress puts their heart and soul into these movies and you don’t necessarily start thinking you are going to get nominated. The stories we want to tell are more important.”
It was a brave stand she took at a time when everyone else was talking about race and racism. But between then and the SAG Awards, her messaging shifted. Then she hit the note hard about inclusivity. The reason being, that gives voters the chance to make history. And why wouldn’t they want to do that in a category that has shut out nearly every kind of actress except white women?
If you watch this video with Michelle Yeoh, you are going to want her to win and badly. You know you’re going to get a major Cinderella moment, with a packed house at the Dolby standing on its feet for the first woman of color to win in Best Actress since Halle Berry in 2001. This video is heartwarming and heartbreaking at the same time. Just try to resist her:
This matters, of course, and most definitely makes the difference. These two are your likely winners for the Oscar largely due to the response they received when they won. It’s one of those things — when you recognize that feeling, you want to repeat it.
When I first started my website in 2000, Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon was up for Best Picture. I remember how badly we wanted Michelle Yeoh to get in one of the acting categories, so I did a quick search in the Wayback machine to see what I’d written about her, and I found this paragraph:
But of course, that was a competitive year and she didn’t make the cut. But that was over 20 years ago. She was also more or less ignored for Crazy Rich Asians. It seems like for Yeoh it’s never been her turn. So why wouldn’t the industry want to give her this much-deserved win? I can’t think of any good reason.
Does that mean Cate Blanchett won’t win? Of course not. She COULD win. The BAFTA voters could drive her through. Riseborough is also going to be a factor here. The people who got together to pick her on their ballots might still vote for her, which would lead to a split vote scenario and I have no idea how that might turn out.
Moving on to Supporting Acterss, this is also really complicated because Jamie Lee Curtis gave a banging speech at the SAG and, per the smart publicist advising her or perhaps her own instincts, she hit the “over 60” note hard too. If she and Yeoh both win, is that the first time that the two actress categories are won by women over 60? Who isn’t going to root for that?
Angela Bassett and Kerry Condon are still potential winners, Condon especially. With all of the love for Banshees, and nine Oscar nominations, are they really going to go home empty-handed?
Stats aren’t going to help us because the stats ain’t what they used to be. These charts I made track the acting races from 2009 through to 2022 and it’s very easy to see how dramatically they changed after 2019-2020. They used to be much more uniform, but events have absolutely shaken up Hollywood and shaken up the voting patterns.
So look at it this way, friends: your guess is as good as mine. The stats are not your friend this year. You have BAFTA’s complete shut out of Everything Everywhere All at Once, and you have the film industry’s over-the-moon response to it. Somewhere in between these two extremes the Oscar will reside.
One key thing to note — the most acting trophies a Best Picture has ever won was 2. In the era of the preferential ballot, they max out at one. They tend to like to split up the votes in the major categories. True, EEAAO broke the record at SAG with 3 and won the PGA/DGA. So you could be looking at a very rare sweep making and breaking history. Who knows.
I suspect at the end of the day the winners will be winners that make these particular voters feel really good — feel good about themselves, about the recipients, about their industry, about their world. I figure that this moment in history, we have just moved through has forever changed the Oscars and sealed their fate. All that’s left to do now is strap in and enjoy the ride.
Question: I’m trying to remember if (a) the final Oscar balloting is a “pick one” or “rank everyone”, and, (b) if it’s the latter, is it still possible for two or more nominees to cancel each other out just enough to let someone else slip through? It’s supposedly/apparently happened in the past, but is it still possible now?
It’s “pick one”, I’m pretty sure. (Except in picture, of course.) It’s “rank everyone” only in the nominations phase.
“if it’s the latter, is it still possible for two or more nominees to
cancel each other out just enough to let someone else slip through?”
It’s not, but, for the sake of argument… I tried to make this work in my head, last year, with a preferential system, but I couldn’t. It probably does prevent vote-splitting. Whichever 2 or more we think might split, one will be left standing once the others are all eliminated and, if it was close behind them on those ballots, it will get their votes, too. There’s just no getting around it, as far as I can tell.
And if it wasn’t close behind on their ballots, then there was no vote-splitting going on for those voters, anyway.
If the academy does the right thing it will be Butler who wins. There were good performances but Austin’s was outstanding. This guy put in way more then just work for the role. He spent almost 3 years perfecting it and nailed it. This gut deserves it. He should not lose out on being rewarded for giving the best performance in a movie because they feel he’s young and can win another time to just give the award to an actor who has been around and given good performances through out his career.vThe award is supposed to be for the performance you are nominated for. Brendan gave a good performance but Butler could not have done anything else to do the part justice other then him being Elvis himself which when watching the film you felt like you were watching him. I truly hope the academy does the right thing.
BAFTA awards the performance, not the narrative like SAG.
Look who won.
BAFTA picked the deserving winners. Same as when they picked Colman, Hopkins and Mcdormand
So do you believe the academy will reward the performance as well nor the narrative. I hoping so. I thought Austin even a better job then Rami when you figure not only did Austin do outstanding acting but he did all the stage performances and singing and playing instruments. Thanks for your feedback
It’s absolutely hysterical that for nearly 2 years, the culture warriors have been shrieking about the BAFTA juries, and then suddenly BAFTA becomes the authoritative precursor because they like the result.
This is why there needs to be a best actor/actress in biopic category. People that loved Elvis can’t separate their love for the real person from the acting performance. Like Butler was nomination worthy but nothing we’ve never seen before. Joaquin Phoenix win a Grammy for singing as Johnny Cash and he didn’t get an Oscar lol. Fraser and Farrell are both just as deserving.
I’m not saying they are not good actors they are they did a good job. But Austin went above and beyond and he made the movie. I didn’t even know who he was went I went to see the movie. Up till Austin performance the only other person who I thought captured the performance wS Kurt Russell in the 1979 TV Elvis movie. He dud a great job but he didn’t do his own singing in the movie. Austin did it all. He had hugh shoes to fill and he did. Just like Rami won the Oscar for playing Freddie and he did a good job bur he also didn’t do his own winging either. There is nothing els4 5hat Aystin could have done to make that part better. He tirallt carried the film.
He’s the reason the movie did well. The movie would really suck without him.
For sure he made the movie. He truly gave a performance of a lifetime and deserves the Oscar. I wouldn’t give it the best movie of the year. But the best performance by an actor definitely. Thanks for your feedback
I agree. It’s a toss up, except Best Supporting Actor where it’s Ke Huy Quan. I think of all the precursor winners, Kerry Condon is up against it. It’s between Angela Basset and Jamie Lee and I actually think Hong Chau is the dark horse here.
Here’s what always happens in the acting categories the last 15 years; politics and Ethnicity get put aside, and the best acted performance ends up winning the Oscar.
Hopkins and MacDormand won
Swinton won
The guy from Spielberg’s Spies won.
Arquette won
Sag repeat:
Yeoh
Fraser
Kwan
JLC
Solid group
And The New York Times is helping Yeoh.
They published an article called Asian Actors Have Been Underrepresented at the Oscars For Decades. Here’s the History. A strong (and visual) case for Yeoh and Kwan. I think we’ll have two Asian acting winners and our very first Asian best actress winner, almost 90 years after Hollywood’s disgusting treatment of Anna May Wong. Go Michelle Yeoh!
Actor – Leaning Butler because of BAFTA + Elvis’ 9 noms.
Actress – Leaning Blanchett ONLY because Tar overperformed with AMPAS.
S.Actor – Quan, with Keoghan as a distant, distant spoiler.
S.Actress – Sigh. Leaning Condon by a hair over JLC & Bassett.
Condon (BAFTA + Banshees 9 noms) vs. JLC (SAG + EEAAO 11 noms). Bassett is beloved and has a strong narrative, but she missed both industry awards and Wakanda is weaker. It is def. a very tight 3-way race, though and … Bassett can just take it. There might be an unknown-to-us big push amongst voters for Bassett that enables her to win, anyway.
One thing I always remember at this point is … sure, SAG voters chose whoever, but will the actors in AMPAS feel the same and, more importantly, how will the other 8000+ members vote? We just. don’t. know.
TAR overperformed and EEAAO didn’t? Pleaaaase.
Meaning that EEAAO is already set to win 3-5 categories, if not more. They also loved Tar more than expected, so you would think that the love will coalesce somewhere; best shot is Actress, could be Screenplay.
I now have Yeoh (3 SAG acting wins, I don’t think it converts only 1), but we have the same in the other 3. (And for the same reasons.)
In my opinion, Yeoh absolutely deserves this. Her performance is rich and thrilling but above all truly human.
My issue with Blanchett is not the actual performance that the fact that she has played the same character for years and years. She not longer goes after characters that would allow her to showcase a different side of her talent, which is what I expect of her if she wants another Oscar. We all know she can do the slightly psychotic bitch in a performance that allows her to go way over the top but I want to see something else, something that won’t feel like her previous performance.
Go Yeoh! You truly deserve this.
How is Lydia Tar the same character as Lilith Ritter, as Carol Aird, as Mary Mapes, as Jasmine, or on the telly Phyllis Schlafly? Just to name a few of her recent lead performances, not to mention the supporting ones.
They are not the same characters, but they all fall under a specific type she is portraying.
But that’s my point, how are these characters even remotely similar?
Steely, “cold”? Just spitballin’ here…
Thank you for saying this. Love Cate and understand the critical acclaim for this performance, but it’s nothing we haven’t seen from her before (outside of the conducting) and in a movie that’s muted and semi-predictable, certainly not your typical Oscar-friendly film. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, but other actors (particularly actresses) have been penalized for their films being too cold, austere, slow. And dare I say, had Cate not swept the critics’ awards, we’d have seen more traction for, say, Danielle Deadwyler all along, let alone maybe someone like Andrea Riseborough could have gotten more notices had the entire precursor industry not been exposed to be simply bought and paid for by studios rather than a meritocracy. Cate should already have up to 4 Oscars, but the rapture over Tar when we have Michelle Yeoh is still a bit confusing to me.
Yes this. Cate is brilliant but she has been this woman before. Blue Jasmine.
The one thing I learned during this Oscar race is the word “stan.” I not only learned the definition of the slang word, but that those who use it are not very smart. These “people” – they might be bots! – use poor logic and ridicule. It’s rather funny.
Who’s your tennis GOAT? Would you rather be a Federer, Djokovic or Nadal stan? Pick your poison…
Clearly Djokovic is the best if you go by stats. Most weeks at #1, he has a better face-to-face record against both, and will most likely finish ahead of Nadal in GS wins. With that said, it’s hard to go against Federer who, more than the other two, changed the way the game was played.
With that weak backhand? No way!!
my perspective may be skewed from when Federer upset Sampras in the round of 16 at Wimbledon whatever year that was. Watching Sampras’s disappointment was heavenly, and, in my heart, I gave Federer credit for 1000 GS wins.
rufussondheim, if you have time and inclination, could you drop me an email? ryanadamsAD @ gmail.
(Stan was a pleasure to encounter in more innocent days, but those days may be long gone.)
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Everystan Everywhere
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my analysis… key word is… SYNERGY. The SAG winners were doing that, all 4.
Fraser and Quan related to each other at CC and started, conscious or unconsciously associating the idea of winning, as a sign of becoming relevant. They highlighted that they worked together in Encino Man, and therefore stablished a link between them. Fraser, all of the sudden, in some way, was cotailling Quan’s sweep to Oscar. The idea of posing together became attractive and… SAG happened. Not to say that Fraser won because of that – in no way – but certainly the collective subconscious probably now is more used to the idea of both narratives converging at Oscar’s podium.
Enough has been said about the synergy of the EEAAO cast. The absolute dominance at SAG proves that it is a force to be reckoned and now Yeoh and Curtis winning ain’t a longshot anymore, by any means.
Basically…
Yeoh+Curtis – Quan – Fraser, with Quan in the centre. It makes a solid, believable set of winners… right now they are peaking, all 4, right in voting time, and the SAG couldn’t come in a better time for all of them, right before Oscars winning poll started. All, more than likeable, loveable… sorry for whoever is hoping for Farrell, Butler, Bassett, Blanchett or Condon… but I think this wave already started its growth and would deliver at the Ceremony…
I may be wrong, but it may be already unstoppable. Quan is the anchor and Fraser, Yeoh and Curtis are extremely linked to him
Actors/Actresses won the GG, CC and BAFTA treble 42 times. 40 of them won the Oscar that year. The 2 that failed to win the Oscar were Blanchett in 1999 and Crowe in 2002. Both are not American. Not a coincidence.
Australians in fact
BAFTA was not a precursor to the Oscar until 2001, so the only one who lost the Oscar after winning the GG, CC, BAFTA trifecta was Crowe. Just him but that was because he hit a journalist at the BAFTAs.
“And then there’s Michelle Yeoh. After the story about Andrea Riseborough broke, Yeoh was the first to step up and defend her, and try to keep the focus more on their work and less on, say, inclusivity, as she told Deadline:
“I love [Viola and Danielle] to the extreme and wish we were all getting Oscars, but it’s tough,” she added. “It took me 40 years to even get a nomination. Every single actor and actress puts their heart and soul into these movies and you don’t necessarily start thinking you are going to get nominated. The stories we want to tell are more important.”
It was a brave stand she took at a time when everyone else was talking about race and racism. But between then and the SAG Awards, her messaging shifted. Then she hit the note hard about inclusivity.”
SIGH.
This is disgenious and sad. Merit and inclusivity are not opposites. Inclusivity does not mean that you should hire actors solely based on skin color. Rather, it means giving everyone a fair shot.
Do you really think that in 84 years of the Oscars, only one non-white woman merited the win? Do you really believe this? Do you believe that all 83 white women “merited” their win and no bias was at play? DEEP HEAVY SIGH.
At this point, a lot of you are just choosing to be woefully stubborn. Shame.
1) I would say JLC is now more likely than Yeoh for an acting win.
2) Blanchett has the “bigger” role and “performance” in a BP nominated film. In the lead acting categories they won’t go for “narratives”. That’s why also Butler is gonna win over Fraser.
3) Double acting wins are rare, and no movie wins three acting Oscars – especially in the preferential era.
My Current Prediction for The Oscars:
Actor: Butler
Actress: Blanchett
Supporting Actor: Quan
Supporting Actress: Condon
Here’s hoping Cate still pulls out the win. Fingers and toes crossed.
She should and she will, and it’s not even close.
According to you. According to me, Blanchett shouldn’t win and won’t win. Michelle deserves it and will get it.
Yeoh is not mote deserving than Blanchett in her performances, that’s just your opinion. You believe that by repeating a lie a thousand times it will become a mantra…Big mistake.
A lie ?
How can a subjective opinion on subjective creative accomplishments be a lie ?
Hint : it can’t.
Yes it can. We can measure the veracity of those opinions.
Fundamentally incorrect. But at least you gotta like your own comment so that’s something.
Fundamentally incorrect because I say that it’s fundamentally incorrect. That’s something but not very much.
Fundamentally incorrect because a subjective opinion on a subjective artistic accomplishment can’t be a lie. Fact. If you want to argue facts, that’s on you.
She lost SAG. It IS close.
Blanchett still has the edge but my wild guess would be that the Blanchett / Yeoh race went from a 20/80 to a 45/55 post-SAG. Now it will come down to how much the Academy wants to embrace EEAAO.
Based on its field-leading 11 nominations, there is a chance that the answer is : A LOT.
Yeoh is going to win because her film is peaking at the right time and has widespread industrybsupoort, plus this is likely her only shot at a win while Blanchett will have more chances to win a 3rd
The overall strong showing at SAG seems to back that up.
It’s not a foregone conclusion that Blanchett will win a third oscar someday because she is not American. Most actors/actresses who won three times are American. Hepburn won 4, she was American. Frances won 3 leads, she is American. Meryl, Nicholson are American. Brennan was American. Only foreigners, DDL and Bergman.
Kidman has been trying to win a second oscar for 20 years and failed. Meanwhile Swank and Zellweger won their second easily. Hopkins needed 30 years to win a second oscar but Hanks achieved it really fast, like Foster, etc…
It’s harder for foreign actors/actresses to win multiple oscars.
With her talent, if Blanchett was American, she would have won as third oscar already…
It’s a little easier for actresses though: of the 16 with multiple wins, six are not native Americans; of the 18 actors, also six.
Good observation. No one can deny the popularity contest element of the Oscars.
And it depends on the roles they play as well. 2 out of 3 Oscars DDL won were for American characters. Lincoln won the Academy as much as DDL.
When Blanchett lost in 1999 she was an unknown actress going up against the daughter of a well known Hollywood producer. Now she is one of the most admired amongst her peers.
also, Yeoh’s role(s) are more challenging and demanding than Cate’s (no offense to Tár!) and also way more unlikely to expect any recognition for it (given the utter weirdness of the film), so the surprise and humbleness of her Awards circuit run, is beyond doubt, felt as authentic. Again, Cate is indicating her way – Yeoh’s – for a while… she’s also feeling that the right choice between them… is Yeoh.
Let’s play this game…
Could Yeoh star in Tár giving a great performance? I think so as she already proven her dramatic chops
Could Cate star in EEAAO (changing to say, Australian inmigrants?) and give Yeoh’s performance? I doubt she could train enough in martial arts to pull this role in that aspect (and she’s aware of that).
In acting, when actors vote… many times they question, if some other could have pulled off that performance (Rami Malek’s would be a good example)…
LOL, Yeoh role was not that difficult. She said in the BAFTA interview she didn’t have to prepare..while Blanchett had to learn to conduct, play the piano, and speak German.
It’s a shame that Blanchett has won at the Oscars the same as a limited actress like Zellweger, a lead and a supporting. Blanchett should have won a second lead already but was a victim of the Weinstein/Paltrow agenda. Blanchett IS the best actress of her generation and just having won one lead actress oscar is absurd. She should have two like Swank.
I don’t draw distinction between lead and supporting. That’s a really reductive view you have of the supporting actress agenda. A lot of great actresses like Maggie Smith have that combination and a lot of really great actresses only have supporting.
Don’t knock the great and highly versatile Renee. Cate doesn’t need that. If anyone can come back and win a 3rd and 4th, it’s Cate, with or without a win for Tar. She’s that brilliant and prolific, retirement claims be damned.
Have to say, when McDormand won Oscars three and four, a whole heaping ton of Streep stanners lost their ever loving minds with outrage that someone matched her acting Oscar haul. It’s weirdy refreshing that the same stanners aren’t as insulted that Blanchett might join the three timers club.
Fran has the edge over all living actresses. She won three LEADS.
Very true. Just pointing out how selective anger works when it comes to the Oscars.
And for the record, I have no issues with either Yeoh or Blanchett winning, and find the debate a little silly.
I just wanted to rub it in for the Meryl stans. 🙂 One of the pleasures of seeing Fran waltzing to her third LEAD so effortlessly was to see her beat the ever so overacting Meryl. 🙂
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What a ham! 🙂
Honey glazed, delicious!
the 4th doesn’t really count as it was as producer. The acting record is stilly Kate’s
Kate’s last two oscar wins are actually hilarious. She basically won for Guess Who… (a nothing of a performance) for being dying Spencer Tracy’s decades long sidechick. And McDormand has that high strung head bobbing Hepburn-esque schtick going on, so I guess that is AMPAS’ sweet spot.
Imagine getting bent out of shape and devoting even an ounce of energy towards thinking about people obsessed with meaningless records
Yet here you are. If you’re so above it all, why are you here?
Well, “meaningless” is probably a bit strong. These things definitely do matter and make a difference on some levels and for some of the people involved.
At a certain level we have to acknowledge that the exact Oscar account doesn’t equate to how big of an impact you’ve had on Hollywood or talent.
I don’t think Jeff Bridges is really the kind of guy who deserves 7 nominations, hardly anyone remember the name Geraldine Page who has 8 nominations, and Frances McDormand isn’t an equal to Meryl Streep.
Hold up, what is your deal with Bridges again?
Just not a fan.
I liked him in the Contender w/Joan Allen
But look at him here. He looks like he’s higher and out of it than the dude. I always thought his brother was more talented.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyQGKSzYqBg&t=680s
Because Cate’s competition is a woman of color and they deem her performance undeserving because it is “woke” (dog whistle).
I am normally loathe to start the next argument before the first one is finished, but given the hostility in some corners towards Asian fims or Asian-led films has been noticably amping up after Parasite and EEAAO, what do you think the climate will be if Celine Song’s Past Lives becomes a big contender next year.
It is going to be tough for Past Lives if I am being quite honest. I think voters will have “Asian” fatigue and will be looking for something different. I call it the Bohemian Rhapsody curse. I think Rocketman was a much better movie than Bohemian and Egerton delivered a more solid performance than hammy Malek…but there was no way voters were going to go for both movies back to back. No way.
I sadly agree with you, but I am fearful of the ugly ways “Asian fatigue” will be expressed in some corners. It’s a shame, the trailer is quite lovely.
It is already evident on here and if EEAO sweeps, the backlash is going to be nasty and intense. Deep sigh.
I’m still utterly baffled by the hostility towards Parasite’s win.
oddly enough, we don’t seem to get tired to criticise CODA’s win…
I had no issues with it. It’s yet another example of HOW to campaign in the preferential era.
I have issues with it. Seen the original french film, a remix of 2 Oscar nominated films, nothing truly special… so CODA in the end, is the absolute lack of originality and risk… the laziest and safest choice out of last year’s contenders (not only the nominees). I haven’t seen CODA, because given I’ve heard it is almost a beat by beat americanization, transforming farmers into fishermen (and that’s it!), what’s the actual point in actually watching it? Saw the original and also 1 of the films that one inspired from (Billy Elliott)… like enough times watching the same story? If one day Apple allows it to play outside Apple+ I may catch it. But till then?
It was what it was. But again, it’s not the 90’s anymore and the larger studios have no earthly idea how to campaign anymore.
they could hire me 😉
Maybe they should, you’ve had a great eye for the ins and outs of campaigning for forever.
Can we please stop devoting so much energy towards coddling these misguided race-obsessed maniacs and their imaginary quotas?
ok, see, Ryan Adams, got on me a lot because I wrote something not nearly as harsh as this. I think the bigger thing is that no one needs 3 Oscars
I wrote this elsewhere, but I currently think
Butler (favoured)
Blanchett (favoured)
Quan (very likely)
Curtis (likely)
It will be a very interesting Oscar night indeed.
the best you could hope for. I think Kerry Condon would be fun!
I am seeing
Austin
Michelle
Angela
Ke
Butler over Fraser? No way!
Fraser is favored in the betting odds. So technically Butler is the “underdog”
Well the betting odds are just a numerical form of the consensus – I don’t believe the consensus is right on this one.
I’m thinking the same except for Supporting Actress. It’s a free-for-all. At the moment I will predict Condon. Her performance (and add in a BAFTA win) is my favourite of the noms.
Also, Fraser vs Butler will be close. I say Butler though at the moment.
Fraser is winning. Butler has never felt right as the winner, and when was the last biopic favorite that lost at SAG? He’s won no critics awards either. That’s even more rare than the no best picture stat. And that stat is just that, a stat. Remember Parasite? All these stats are eventually broken. Veteran, transformative, better narrative. Fraser winning best actor
So how did Butler beat Farrell, heavily favored, and Fraser at BAFTA?
The last 8 Best Actor winners at BAFTA also went on to win the Oscar. 😉
And yet, he lost SAG and CC. SAG loves biopics, he lost. Even Malek won sag.
Boseman and Denzel won SAG too…
Right now I’m going with:
Fraser
Yeoh
Quan
Condon
I switched to Yeoh after SAG, switched to Condon after BAFTA, switched to Quan after NYFCC. Never switched from Fraser.
If you check the betting websites, Fraser and Blanchett are the favorites to win in their categories. The betting websites know what they are predicting.
Yes, the favorites always win!
Most betting websites predict
Fraser
Blanchett
Quan
Bassett
I work in this “industry” and Yeoh is the favorite in most of them (a change of the last 2-3 days), Fraser slightly ahead of Butler (SAG impact), Bassett keeping the lead to Jamie Lee (maybe not for long…) and Kerry as the outsider. Supporting female seems more foggy than any other category (even below the line) by existing prices and tendencies.
They might not have absorbed the SAG wave yet.
Dear Oscar voters,
Oscar voting will start later today.
Time to say a big F…K YOU to the Oscar pundits, Film Twitter, and their total nonsense.
Time to save the Cinema.
Vote purely based on merit – in each and every category.
You will be happy,
We will be happy… 🙂
I would love for that to happen but it’s more of a wishful thinking at this point…
which is a phallacy… merit is subjective. You can’t tell me that – I know where you’re coming from, crystal clear – the roles of Blanchett and Yeoh are equally challenging. They are not. You think Cate’s performance is absolutely masterful and I wouldn’t dispute that. But her role, clearly, doesn’t suppose the same challenge than portraying Evelyn Wang, by any means. What in the world made you think that Yeoh didn’t win SAG because of merit? Do you know how unfair you are being?
Merit is subjective.
The insinuation that Michelle Yeoh doesn’t deserve to win solely based on merit, is ignorant.
Her role required language skills, comic timing, dramatic flare, martial arts experience and the ability to play wildly different variations of the same character. And she pulled it off with flying colours.
Cate Blanchett is brilliant in Tár and would be a deserving winner. But that does not mean she would be the only deserving winner in that category. Michelle Yeoh would be just as deserving.
Taking on a prestige drama with an established prestigious director, is not really a creative risk. Taking on an absurdist sci-fi comedy with dildo fights and hotdog fingers from the directors of the “Harry Potter’s corpse farts” movie, IS.
And not only taking it on but in the end delivering a critically, commercially successful film with a field-leading 11 Oscar nominations ? As the headliner ? Well, that is damn impressive. Anyone disputing that, needs to reconsider.
We are all entitled to have different faves but diminishing all that Michelle Yeoh had accomplished here, to tear her down to build someone else up, is completely uncalled for.
My two cents.
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All of this.
Absolutely. The insinuation that Yeoh won’t win on merit is ugly. Yeoh delivered a masterful performance and fully deserves this.
That doesn’t take away from Sammy’s point.
Normally the people who say “merit is subjective” are suggesting that it’s important to vote for a minority because merit doens’t matter
Normally the people who emphasize that everyone should vote based on merit are suggesting that the minority representative could never on merit (which if it happens every year as it does with some, one needs to start asking questions about what they consider to be merit) and thus people should vote for the white person.
That is the opposite of my point.
Facts, facts and more facts. The “merit” and “woke” dog whistles are just ridiculous and repulsive and sad. They just see a person of color and absolutely refuse to recognize that this is an artist who also has to develop a thorough and intellectual method and deliver a solid and well-rounded performance.
Someone said to me “but but Cate was speaking German and other languages so it was technically more difficult.” I had to laugh because they did not even realize that Michelle is using an accent in EEAO that is not has natural accent. She is also speaking ENGLISH, her second language, NOT her Native language (and she is speaking a specific kind of broken English, which also requires skill to master because Michelle’s natural English fluency is Native-like). And she is also dabbling in Mandarin, which is not her Native language (Cantonese is). Again, proof that these people refuse to see artists of color as actual intellectual beings who are also putting in the work and “MERIT” accolades. These comments sections have truly been eye-opening.
Preach! Especially the laughing at that person saying cate spoke German … like DID U WATCH EEAAO and notice yeoh spoke like 4 languages and used like 3 accents???
Asian languages are all the same.
saracasm or you fr?
Sometimes I really wish that people would stop getting so wound up about “well, X spoke Z number of languages/lost or gained Y amount of weight/learned an accent that hasn’t existed for years/pissed themselves in public/played a character no one else would touch,” etc. etc. etc. We don’t necessarily need to see all the heavy lifting and straining behind the scenes, although I admit it’s interesting; what should be most important is “how believable and convincing is this person in this role? How easy is it to forget who they are, and simply see that character?” We all know how hard it is to do any number of things (acting, playing music, writing, sports), but who are the people who can make you forget all that, in an almost Zen way, and believe that there’s nothing and no one other than the character you see living and breathing on the screen? The best can get you to ignore the person behind the curtain, and only see the one in front of you.
An example from my misspent youth: I saw Foo Fighters on their very first tour with Mike Watt, and Hovercraft–aka Mrs. Eddie Vedder at the time’s band–and even at that point the Foos put on a hell of a show, with Dave Grohl up front on guitar and whoever was then the drummer in back (not Taylor Hawkins, BTW). When Watt came on, though, Dave switched over to drums, and HOLY FUCKING SHIT…my roommate and I were at the back of the 40 Watt Club, so we were watching from an angle where we could see the drummers for each act very clearly. When Dave got up there and started bashing away, our mouths were literally hanging open in astonishment at just HOW. FUCKING. AMAZING. he was. I mean, we’d already seen him on Nirvana’s last tour, so we knew he kicked major ass, and the Foos’ drummer was perfectly good, no questions there…but when Dave played, it looked absolutely, utterly effortless. We knew damn well that it had taken years of blood, sweat, and blistered hands to get that good, but you never would have known it to watch him–he looked as if he’d rolled out of the womb, sticks in hand, and started banging on the OB/GYN’s head, no problem. I’ve seen a hell of a lot of musicians over the years, and the vast majority were damn good at what they do, but 28 years later Dave Grohl was, and is, the best goddamn drummer I’ve ever seen, period, end of argument, and a large chunk of that was how it all looked as easy as breathing…
(Dave, in the exceedingly unlikely event you or yours are reading this, I seem to recall that you very much enjoyed the batch of homemade blueberry muffins I brought to soundcheck for Watt and the rest of you. Perhaps someday I can bring you some more–after all, being one of the nicest guys in rock shouldn’t have to be its own reward all the time, eh? *grin*)
Yeoh was playing herself in EEAAO. Not a stretch actingwise.
Please expand on this theory of yours. Dying to know how you came to this conclusion
i’d also love to know, because from my seat, she played several wildly different incarnations of someone completely unlike herself.
Literal ignore begger
OK, guess who is now number 1 in the GoldDerby odds for Best Actress? Michelle Yeoh! Michelle absolutely deserves this. It will be a moment for the ages!!! Love the love for that performance, for that ensemble, for that film! <3
Top Gun: Maverick was Number 1 by a huge margin at Gold Derby odds in Cinematography right before the nominations announcement.
No one cares about GD.
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GD still thinks Power of the Dog is winning Best Picture.
If Bassett loses she will be the first black female actor to be have multiple acting nominations without a win.
Since the only other black actresses with multiple nominations are Whoopi Goldberg, Octavia Spencer, and Viola Davis not sure this is such an authoritative stat.
Not so much a stat as a factoid.
It also assumes that the status at this specific moment would be important and not whether one wins in general. If Bassett wins at some point later on, it would still apply that all of these actresses who have had multiple nominations have won an Oscar. Whether they win by their second nomination isn’t really relevant (especially as Davis didn’t win until their third nomination).
Every excuse some use for Yeoh to win has nothing to do with her performance being better than Blanchett
just check with you you sasying Yeoh performance is better than bLANCHETTS? sorry i in bit pain in my upper neck tonight so i just need cl;arity?
When weighing the two performance Yeoh was basic acting. She even said herself in the BAFTA interview, she didn’t have to prepare for this role
there you go typical oscar thanx for clarification glad have u on biard common sesne train blanchett should be
You do know the award is for who gave the best performance, right?
OF COURSE WE ON same page you believe best performance is butler not fraser and blanchett not yeoh right?
No. Fraser or Farrell and Blanchett
weell we ALLMOST on same page then close 😉
baaaah! i as lot us are TRULY SICK AND TIRED of this mentality that the ‘backstory’ takes precedent over actor put the time craft and energy and amvition in their actual performance they were nominated for,
I hope most us spit the dummy big time if Austin Butler does not win…it is INEXCUSABLE NO! INEXPLICABLE that the only actor in modern times at Butlers young age pretty much as a debut to big time no doubt too! to fillm in the GINORMOUS BLUE SWEDE SHOES OF all legends imaginable of ELVIS THE KING PRESLEY himself…is NO MEAN FEAT AND AS TALL AN ORDER AS THEY COME FOR OSCAR WORTHY OUGHT TO BE NO CONTEST WHATSOEVER.
frankly FUK the ‘backstory’ of Frasers personal redemption story mirroring his role, the Whale is your classic ultra uber obscure film not best picture contender and how many people really CARE in public bout this small time story compared to ambition and demands of Butler as Elvis the POPULAR CHOICE THE LOGICAL CHOICE THE ONLY CHOICE NON NEGOTIABLE AND UNACCEPTABLE FOR FRASER TO WIN THIS YEAR FOR PERFORMANCE DRIVEN BY HIS WEIGHT GAIN WELL NO OSCAR NEED FAST LEARN NOT ABOUT HOW MUCH SYMPATHY A PERSONS ROLE GENERATES TO THE VOTER IT ABOUT HOW MANY AND QUALITY AND AMBITION OF PERFORMANCE TO ENGAGE BE EMBRACED BY LOT MORE PEOPLE AND THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT BUTLERS PERFORMANCE AS ELVIS DOES
MAY HELL SWALLOW OSCARS WHOLE IF FRASER WINS OVER BUTLER NO CONTEST SHOULD BE DESERVES TO BE HOPEFULLY WILL BE BUTLER BUTLER ONLY! WHO WITH ME!?
Fraser can weight for more broader embraced performance of someone well known not this societal lone man – redemption to themselves and their restrictive locality type crap over it most us should be oscar need learn to embrace TRUE BEST PERFORMANCE NOT ‘FEEL GOOD BACKSTORY’ of actors redemption that ONLY thing justifies fraser winning over butler.
Cate Blanchett ought to win i dont give a fuk what Michelle Yeoh ‘msging adjustments are’ or anyone else ifr they were in her shoes- that screams of pandering. Yeoh done MILES BETTER PERFORMANCES and ehr performance in Courching Tiger ought be the barometer with which THIS performance in EEAAO is measured by- further- she was rightly first asian- american actress be bonds leading lady- she added gravitas and passion and drama in truly underrrated performance i embraced and applauded in Tomorrow never Dies. This is the WRONG performance without shadow of doubt i maintain enhanced by her face flicking through flip book madness could not give us moments peace catch our breaths in messy overrated very much EEAAO it only underpins to us reinforces it all bout ‘ the mnessage’ behind performance like the ‘backstory’ it horseshit and oscar ought to treat it as such.
Cate Blanchett MY HOME GROWN SUPERSTAR ever prolific been nominated soo many times she risk being unfairly snubbed granted she cant win EVERY award oir everytime she nominated in say globes she cant get nomination everytime in oscars- but shit everyone – I dont need see TAR knoiwing story, seeing trailer and i read carefully reviews to know Blanchett put in one performances of her career ! On verge of overall Hollywood greatness far MORE than just playing lgbtiq immersed tormented and conflicted woman she is also trying to fulfill her ambition her vision as being world greatest modern day female composer.. whilst dealing with political correct- establishment challenging paradigm with ;Tar at the HEART OF IT,..NO EDITING TRICKERY like in Yeoh’s performance, there is layers and depth at multiple levels to fulfill the role of probably most famous female composer of our time…it example of a story we ALL SHOULD BE AWARE OF at a time music and arts under threat by very forces in ‘Tar’ said character comes up against- political correctness vs established order and vis a vis.,,and in this BLANCHETT put in amongst her finest performances this would have rate arguably as her MOST DEMANDING performance since playing the befallen ELIZABETH not once mind you but TWICE my goodness gracious me! HER STORY AND HEADLINES BE MADE IF AS SHE SHOULD DAMN WELL WIN FIRST AUSSIE ACTOR OR ACTRESS TO REACH STATUS OF HOLLYWOOD LEGENDS? she already achieved greatness she still got 40 yrs ahead of her at MOST- and yet..that is NO EXCUSE TO OVERLOOK this majestic epic and intimate performance in ‘Tar’.
Of course i never get what i want.. i know oscars mind games they play and bullshit comes with it..
So hard me say it i expecting FRaser and Yeoh to win. it be worse i admit if FRaser beat Butler than if Yeoh beat Blanchett for Yeoh attached to her chances is ‘i owe you’ oscar certasinly do but injustice of academys legacy mentality with this crap- JUST ONCE AWARD AWARDS for performances actors best not ones that are middling.
As for supp actor and supp actress i actually think banshees deserves strong consolation – i love screen icon for his age demographic Judd Hirsch get long over due oscar he been so good for long time at his age still keep going but i cannot argue against Banshees wining BOTH supp actor AND supp actress..
If yeoh does not win actress than way i see it even with DGA AND PGA it HAS TO GET SUPP ACTRESS i actually think in fact Stephanie Hsu’s performance as the agrieved frustrated resentful daufghter at her mum in EEAAO is best performance of the LOT …least intercuts obnoxious style of montage flicking constantly endlessly seems to pause for her scenes more than yeoh’s make difference for people find performance ACCESSIBLE and indeed her was i argue one with LEAST disruptive montage flicking madness moments course there for all character but sometime pause in i call a uber ultra restless unsettled picture in EEAAO make all difference in power of performance will YEOH’S performance fade in minds of oscar voters against more powerful presence of REAL TRUE HERO of music world and of lgbti at level of penulktimate fame and quest beat the odds in TAR ? copuld all editing chops see ampas voters take stock and reasses which be very wise if they did and reconsider SAG win for it to follow automatically to YEOH? i hope so But Hsu definitely i support that as alternative to kondon.,
But given the across board praise for strength of evenness of performances in BANSHEES esp IF it does not win adapted or is original? scnreenplay – prob not then it earnt 2 supp acting wins. both men and women. just cant go home wiht one oscar surely not!
But really is awards season conclusion wants to salvage majority respecxtabiltiy here for ONCE….they ought to do this:
Actor- BUTLER
Actress- BLANCHETT
Supp Actor-Keoghnan- if Kondon wins and Banshee win screenplay how number us surely looove see shock upset for Judd Hirsch win ey?
Supp Actress- Kondon BUT.. if Banshees does win screenplay oscar and Keoghnan wins, then for sure Hsu can win this no probs.
I agree 1000 percent with you on Butler. Austin did have the hardest task at hand and the guy put in almost 3 years of perfecting the role. This performance was by far headcans shoulders above the others. Plus Elvis movie was one if the first movies released for 2022 and maybe these voters need to go back and watch the films again. You could not take your eyes off Austin when he was in scene. He should not be penalized for his young age he more then delivered. There is nothing else he could have done to make the performance better other then being Elvis himself which I’m sorry when watching the film you felt like you were watching Elvis going through his life. At cannes he got a 13inute ovation. When the academy was watching the movie screening they were standing, applauding, cheering throughout the whole movie. How can you get moved that much by the performance in a movie and nit reward the performance with the Oscar to instead give our a pity win for a good not great performance which BTY has been the actual reality of Brendan career roles good not great. It will be the biggest crime if Austin does not win the oscar.
If I have to list my favorite nominated performances this year irrespective of the category, This is how I would rank them.
Michelle Yeoh
Cate Blanchett
Ke Huy Quan
Stephanie Hsu
Kerry Condon
Colin Farrell
Barry Keoghan
JLC
Austin Butler
Brendan Fraser
… And the rest
It is criminal that we have to chose between Yeoh and Blanchett 🙁 Wish we could rank-choice vote the 10 nominated actors and actresses and award the top-2.
A lot of “ties” for me:
01. Michelle Yeoh | Cate Blanchett
03. Bill Nighy | Colin Farrell
05. Ke Huy Quan | Stephanie Hsu
07. Brendan Gleeson | Michelle Williams
09. Barry Keoghan | Hong Chau
11. Austin Butler | Ana de Armas
13. Jamie Lee Curtis
14. Kerry Condon | Angela Bassett
16. Judd Hirsch
17. Brendan Fraser
Haven’t seen To Leslie, Causeway or Aftersun yet
To Leslie is pretty good (I get the nomination even if I don’t think it was that amazing).
Get onto Aftersun asap!
Should win: Blanchett, Farrell, Condon, Keoghan
Will win: Yeoh, Fraser, Curtis, Quan
The year of the narrative!
A Streetcar Named Desire, Network and Everything Everywhere All at Once…LOL
I think BAFTA goes 2/4 at the very least. This is what you gonna get at Oscar night… 🙂
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What narrative?
If you don’t know the various narratives at play this season then you haven’t been paying close enough attention.
if you can’t identify the narrative when being asked, then there is no narrative.
The narrative is very clear and is pointing towards the woke movement, not the artistry and merit. Even Elon Musk has said that AI is biased…
nobody here crying about EEAAO can even define what “woke” means, aside from just being upset that white people aren’t winning every award possible
The moronic woke agenda.
So you think SAG goes 4/4 and BAFTA goes 0/4? Seems highly unlikely. (And would be very unusual.) I have 2/4 for each. (Yeoh, Butler, Condon, Quan.)
I also thought it was cheap and transparent to hit hard at SAG about it being “about time” for their awards.
I wouldn’t assume anything this year.
Somehow Andrea Riseborough was nominated based on a sort of campaign. Then there were reports of unfair campaigning, and this was completely unfair to HER.
Do you think all those people are just going to forget about her? There could be quiet voting for her. Votes for her could take votes from anyone.
If they begin voting based on how a person looks or if it’s their “turn”, then why have awards at all. Just have a yearly event to celebrate all performances!!?!
I’m still thinking Blanchett as not only magnificent in TAR but hard for more than one actor to win for a movie, which is also why I’m doubting in Jamie Lee Curtis. Be fun if SAG pushes but the BAFTA voters show some split there.
I’m giving Fraser slight edge for now as we know Academy voters suckers for heavy makeup but Butler right on his heels. Supporting Actress, still thinking slight edge for Bassett but I like an Oscars where it’s not all settled weeks in advance.
Elvis is a Oscar + Globes + BAFTA nominated movie in Best Picture. They love the film.
Butler is winning.
gees for oscars sake more than mine hope u right
Austin Butler should win. Brendan Fraiser sat in a fat suit throuhhout the movie, stuffed his fat face with pizza while he sweat all over. It was gross. Austin had to learn to dance, talk, and sing like Elvis. For 2 years he sacrificed his life. Brendan doesn’t deserve an Oscar just because he is making a comback.
You don’t have to underestimate Fraser’s effort for sitting in a fat suit throughout the movie, stuffed his fat face with pizza while he sweat all over, just because you want Butler to win. I think Austin Butler doesn’t deserve an Oscar just because he had to learn to dance, talk and sing like Elvis. There are tons of Elvis impersonators in Vegas, who are much better than Butler.
Hahaha both comments are hilarious.
And that’s why neither of them should win. Farrell should!! His was the only character and performance out of the five nominated that moved me.
And that’s why neither of them should win. Farrell should!! His was the only character and performance out of the five nominated that moved me.
Obviously you can’t look at both performances unbiased. Austin truly had to do more and did and it was an amazing performance. When you gave Denzel standing behind your performance speaks volumes. I believe Denzel knows what a great performance is. No one is saying Brendan didn’t do a gois job but Austin had the biggest shoes to fill and he filled it 1000 percent
I agree 1000 percent
Please forgive the intrusion…
Watched Cat on a Hot Tin Roof today, the ’58 version with Paul Newman and Elizabeth Taylor. Some may consider the film detestable, the parading of Confederate flags and the portrayal of the Southern White Plantation are indeed offputting (a closer look shows though only the most detestable characters actually parade with the flags, whether this is purposeful or not can be debated.
The movie is basically an entire season of Succession boiled down into two hours except we more or less know where it’s going. The film suffers after 3 generations have passed because today’s audience knows Brick is gay even though the script argues otherwise. (Again, this can be debated)
The film is definitely worth watching though because of Newman and Taylor, easily two of Hollywood’s most stunning and steamy mega-stars. Each tries to balance their performances between what the script demands and what the audience wants. There are moments their starpower overwhelms. There really is no current Hollywood comparison.
I mention all of this because this is the type of film Hollywood doesn’t make anymore. Searing family dramas with major stars. Sure, some independent studios try and some streamers try, but there really is no contemporary comparison. It’s a shame.
I know there are many reasons that such films aren’t made, but I am going to blame Marvel/DC/Star Wars franchises. These franchises swallow up Hollywood’s best talent. Isn’t it bothersome that Hollywood’s Best Talents all have multi-picture deals with movies that don’t properly exploit their talents.
Hollywood needs to put their stars into movies where their starpower is allowed to shine, even to overwhelm.
I mention all of this because this is the type of film Hollywood doesn’t make anymore.
My comfort genre, Rufus.
Another all-time favorite of mine with similar messy family dynamics: Some Came Running (1958) — same year as Maggie the Cat
You’ve probably already seen it, but if not, hell yes, seek it out, you’re gonna love it.
Also: Sweet Bird of Youth (1962)
I’ve seen neither. My classic movie knowledge is disturbingly low. Sure, there are some on my Best Of list like Separate Tables and Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf. But there are others like From Here to Eternity I’ve not seen even though I’ve read the book!
The HBO Max catalogue has so many classics I’ve not seen, my goal this year is to focus on them. They are so much more enjoyable than the latest buzzy HBO dramas which are not nearly as good as people want to think they are.
I’m not a big fan of that Cat on a Hot Tin Roof (Richard Brooks in general I feel like is a great and really classical example of the most uninteresting kind of prestige filmmaking) but I wanted to comment to express my completely agreement with you about Some Came Running, which I’d argue is Minnelli’s greatest masterpiece (in a career with many worthy of the title “masterpiece”) and if not the single greatest American film of the 1950s, at the very least heavily in consideration for that position to me
Probably one of the best-written and best-acted movies of all time…
It’s only going to matter to the Academy members who vote for the winners.
Most acting trophies – Best Picture – In the era of the preferential ballot, they max out at one. They tend to like to split up the votes in the major categories
Exactly.
This means Quan will be the only acting winner of EEAAO, the Best Picture winner.
You realize this streak will break at some point, right?! 🙂 (And it will be this year, but, even if not…)
“With all of the love for Banshees, and nine Oscar nominations, are they really going to go home empty-handed?”
Just ask American Hustle and its 4 acting nominations (out of 10 total) losing all 4 (and in all other categories too). So yes, it could go home empty handed.
Hustle was a mess of a movie that deserved “zero” awards attention.
Banshees is just in another league.
Then let’s bring up Sunset Blvd, up for four acting and lost all four. The film went 3 for 12.
Banshees is complete minor league in comparison.
I have never wanted a tie more, alas.
I think Michelle Yeoh is winning in part due to her film being so beloved by the industry (PGA, DGA, SAG).
That is also the reason why I think Butler still has the edge : his film is much more loved than Fraser’s and while his campaign narrative is hard to ignore, I still think in the end this will be more or less a Redmayne/Keaton year in Lead Actor.
Supporting actress will be very interesting. My guess is still Angela Bassett. JLC will split votes with her co-star and Condon is probably still too unknown to triumph over two Oscar-less vets. Having said that it would be the easiest way to give Banshees SOMETHING especially if Originap Script also goes to EEAAO.
Quan is winning. I have nor have I ever throughout this season, had any doubt about that.
Looking at KC’s filmography of the past 20 or so years, she may not be a household name, but I wouldn’t say she’s unknown to Oscar voters.
I should have phrased that clearer, I meant that she is relatively unknown in the context of a three-way race with 2 beloved Oscar-less icons.
I concur, my friend and will add that the biopic factor for Elvis and that it is – um – Elvis, is for me compelling. Butler kicks ass in that role and if ever there was an American cultural icon it was Elvis Aaron Presley. I am, sticking with Butler for Actor, even in the face of the SAG loss.
I think Condon may get through. I hope so. She was wonderful.
And yes Quan. He is so delightful and delivers a great performance(s)
So glad to have been seeing you pop in more, my friend.
Almost put out a signal for you.
I know things are difficult for you right now, but I’ve certainly missed your presence. My thoughts are with you!
thank you, my good friend. Comrade. I have been through some dark days and nights. My beautiful Mum passed away two weeks ago. I am at peace for her, and I loved her greatly, but now sad and a little lost. Thank you so much for your kindness and gentle presence; to welcome me back and shine some light. My best as ever to you dear Jerm.
I am so sorry for your loss, Dave. My condolences.
So sorry for your loss.
Sorry for your loss
thank you Ricky, appreciate it
Sorry for your loss, Dave!
Thank you my friend. 🙂
So sorry to hear of your loss, Dave. Hugs!
I understand all too well–my mother passed away last August. *hugs*
Oh, that’s horrible… 🙁 My very sincere condolences!
Austin Butler all the way. He worked for 2 years. The movie was so sad in the end. The man gave so much in his 42 years. The movie Elvis also grossed far more than Btendan Fraiser. The Whale is a depressing, gross movie. Brendan still sounds like he has emotional issues. And he is a good actor. But the Oscar should go to Austin Butler
Don’t spoil the end of Elvis please! Some of us have no clue where Elvis is actually hiding, we don’t need you or anyone else to tell us where!
I still think Blanchett but be great if Condon takes it.
Blanchett is losing momentum. Even GD is now predicting Michelle. Michelle has good will on her side and this matters. Plus, she’s in a film that’s beloved.
Then why didn’t Butler win SAG?
Fraser’s campaign narrative is one that clearly resonates with the acting community more than anyone else plus he has been a high-profile actor for 30 years so he clearly has a lot of SAG friends who are happy to support his comeback.
Butler on the other hand didn’t really have an industry status pre-Elvis nor has he been around for long enough to have the kind of support a beloved vet like Fraser does.
But clearly just a theory.
It is a good theory. But that could work in Brendan’s favor with the whole Oscars body because the AMPAS voters are industry people which Brendan has had more connections with than Butler.
SAG = People’s choice awards, that’s why.
Radio DJs should not vote for those awards..!
That’s oversimplifying. Just because a large number of actors vote doesn’t make it people’s choice awards. Just because your choice didn’t win doesn’t make it a people’s choice awards. Actors voted for Fresher.
Influencers, Tik tokers, struggling actors, online writers etc are part of SAG AFRA. It’s a fucking joke.
so is EEAAO a populist movie or not? because the main argument here against it seems to be that everyone is being forced into liking the movie because of wokeness, but it really just seems like it’s genuinely a very popular film.
Movies don’t usually sweep at the Oscars. Tar overperformed with nominations. If it wins anything, it will be Blanchett.
and Todd Field in Directing..!
I would hope, but I think it’s a long shot since he didn’t win DGA
EEAAO overperformed too. The nomination phase AND the Guild winning phase.
EEAAO will probably win some awards…Tar will not. That’s why it may get support for Blanchett from other branches that nominated.
movies don’t usually win four SAGs yet here we are…
SAG is 100,000 plus union members that are not Oscar voters
Does it really matter that much whether there is actual voter overlap? Eventually, we are talking about similar populations doing similar voting about similar choices, the law of large numbers should apply and be enough to prove the relevancy of these groups.
Yes, because it’s not just actors voting
Also, if you want to discuss “similar”, that would be BAFTA
If there’s significant overlap, surely that strengthens it, even though I agree the link should be strong even without it, for the reasons you gave.
that has nothing to do with the fact that the movie is sweeping the industry awards, not just the SAGs, in an unprecedented way. it’s funny how if EEAAO wins with critics awards or industry guilds it’s because they’re “out of touch” but when it wins with the SAG contigency it’s because they’re the “people’s choice awards”. make up your mind…either people love the film or not.
The movie, not Yeoh. Blanchard won CC, GG, BAFTA, and Trifecta. There’s less than 10,000 Oscar voters. 1300 make up the actors branch.
you said “movies don’t usually sweep at the oscars” and i replied with an example of this being an extraordinary year for awards stats. i didn’t mention yeoh or blanchett…
You did mention SAG, which is an acting award. Only three movies swept major awards. The last time it was done was Silence of the Lambs.
…and it’ll happen again in ten days 😉
Let’s hope not….
i hope it does, it’s one of the best movies i’ve ever seen and would be a phenomenal addition to the oscar canon.
You need to watch more movies without special effects.
you need to get the fuk over the fact that ppl enjoy movies that you don’t like sometimes and stop being a toxic twitter troll.
Take your own advice
i expressed an opinion about a movie that i like and you’re worried about the personal tastes and preferences of complete strangers on the internet. get a life.
Yes, you’re the one having a hissy fit
lmao oh the irony
What’s your favorite movie?
either amadeus or eternal sunshine of the spotless mind
I’ve switched back to Fraser after SAG. And I also discovered a stat problem for Butler.
Ever since the expansion in 2009, no performer has won the Oscar without winning at least one critics award, except for Sandra Bullock in 2009. That’s 51 out of 52 times.
Butler has not won a single critic’s award.
Another interesting fact. Colin Farrell won the Goldderby Award today, closely behind him was Brendan Fraser, not Butler.
I think the BP/Lead Actor stat will be a bigger problem for Fraser than critics groups for Butler.
Since the BP expansion, only one actor won lead without a corresponding BP nod : Jeff Bridges.
12 out of 13 years the Oscar went to a lead performance in a BP nominated film.
This helps Butler and potentially really hurts Fraser.
But it has happened. 🙂
1/13 is a better odd than 1/52. And when these two incidents that happened, the winners beat the odds by having a narrative win, which matches Brendan’s case.
One is industry-based evidence, though… Might be more likely for a fully non-industry rule on 51/52 to fail than for an industry rule on 12/13 to do it. As for narrative, Butler has a good one too, given the Lisa Marie thing and so on.
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Good stuff! Fraser feels like he will win (and might be my unofficial prediction), but officially I’m sticking with my all-industry system, so I will have Butler because of the BP nomination. (The real person thing helps too.)
I have Condon, otherwise we’re on the same page.
Best Supporting Actress Awards Chart
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What that tells me is that since 2012 since SAG merged with AFTRA, (which was after BAFTA moving its announcement date to precede AMPAS, and after the preferential ballot,) whenever there was a split between BAFTA and SAG, the Academy went with the SAG choice, except in 2016 when it went with a loser to both, Regina King the winner of the Globes and CC, which bodes well for Angela Bassett.
This hasn’t been the case in other categories, though.
Not all 160,000 or so members of the actors union SAG-AFTRA are also members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, but the vast majority of the 1,302 actors who are voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences are members of SAG-AFTRA
I was very bullish on Regina King’s win that year.
There are differences between her and Bassett. King was not nominated at either SAG nor BAFTA, so she didn’t actually *lose* to anyone there where Bassett has lost twice (which shows her weakness). And it’s arguable that had King been nommed at SAG that year, she would most likely win.
King did also win at the major critics, which stat-wise, worked in her favor when coupling with GG. Bassett hasn’t won anywhere major. Her successes at GG and CC seem to mainly be pundits-pushed.
I haven’t ruled out Bassett, but she’s on very thin ice.
Best Actress Awards Chart
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that interview Michelle Yeoh did with PEOPLE just broke me. So eloquent, so majestic, so passionate, and so intelligent. She is a literal icon. give her all the flowers!
Look. She said all the right words and hit all the right notes. LFG!
The single win for Editing is telling.
The overwhelming support from PGA, DGA, SAG is more telling than BAFTA’S
Not sure you caught my drift…
The single BAFTA win for EEOAO is obvious an outlier.
I was referring to the significance of an editing win, not to the fact that it was a single win due to BAFTA voters’ ultimate preference for other films in all the other categories.
Ok, got it.
As has been pointed out repeatedly, the inclusivity rules are so broadly drawn the only way a movie could fail to meet the standards would be by deliberately discrimminating.
One can defend Riseborough while simulataneously acknowledging that the industry hasn’t always been friendly to Asian creatives. It’s not a zero sum game, both things can both be true. I don’t think Yeoh was being hypocritical. And as more than a few people noted, she seemed sincerely surprised to have defeated Blanchett on Sunday.
By the way, Halle Berry is the only Bond girl apart from Yeoh to even be nominated for an Oscar, let alone win, right?
Well, there’s Ana de Armas this very year. Plus Bond woman Judi Dench.
Kim Basinger was a Bond Girl.
Listed below. 😉 (or above, depending on how you read comments)
Well, there’s Ana de Armas this very year. Plus Bond women Judi Dench and Naomie Harris.
That’s right de Armas.
And Rosamund Pike, in addition to Dench and Harris. I guess the list goes on.
That’s apparently the pipeline!
And last not least Deborah Kerr and Kim Basinger from non-Eon films.
I’m excited to remind you guys that Lotte Lenya was nominated for Best Supporting Actress (in The Roman Spring of Mrs. Stone) 2 years before she played Rosa Klebb. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8de5477890985f1a44ddd553c3a5eab12fc95fa8a1778f8bc5e7d2ad2fa8a1b1.gif
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