As we get closer to the Oscar telecast, more and more people are discovering the films nominated in the shorts categories. Since the shorts ping on some audiences’ radars after the nominations are announced, they feel like a breath of fresh air. After months of hearing of the battle for Best Actress or whether how many nominations All Quiet on the Western Front can win, going blind into the shorts is the best way to go in my opinion.
But what can win? These categories are notoriously slippery, and it’s not uncommon for surprises to happen–I think it was an overall strong year for submitted and shortlisted short films. Let’s take a look at who might take home the Oscar and, perhaps, I can provide some comfort when you are filling out your Oscar pool on Sunday night.
Animated Short Film
The nominees:
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me That the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
With this category, I think the main question to keep in mind is, ‘how cute do they want to go?’ Last year’s winner, The Windshield Wiper, was a mature glimpse at the ways we fall in love and 2020’s If Anything Happens, I Love You tackled gun violence by reaching through the broken marriage of grieving parents. These films triumphed over Robin Robin and Burrow, respectively.
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse has the advantage of being the most accessible. It was released on Apple TV+ at Christmastime, and it does have a Winnie the Pooh, gentle feeling to it. I have also seen ads in trade magazines for it more than I have for the other films. There isn’t typically a lot of crossover between this category and the one at BAFTA, but it is worth noting that this film did win at that ceremony.
What if the Academy isn’t feeling cutesy, though? Voting for Sara Gunnarsdóttir and Pamela Ribon’s My Year of Dicks might feel like a giggly, naughty act, especially after Riz Ahmed read the film’s title on nomination morning. It’s a heartfelt film that so many people can relate to, especially if you grew up during the time period in which it is set. As someone who (still) considers themselves very boy crazy, I felt very seen by this short.
I, however, would also watch out for Wendy Tilby and Amanda Forbis’ The Flying Sailor for how it recounts the 1917 Halifax explosion with nimble consideration and the filmmakers have been open about trying new forms of animation in order to detail the scope of the story. Tilby and Forbis were nominated in this category for When the Day Breaks.
There is a lot of love for Ice Merchants and for how it captures movement, and, I’m sure, that the animation branch would love to vote for a film like Ostrich since it pays homage to the art of animation.
Prediction: The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
Spoiler: My Year of Dicks
Live Action Short Film
The nominees:
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
There is an argument for each of these films to win, but sometimes it can lean more towards feel good or to social commentary.
An Irish Goodbye recently scored the BAFTA, so it’s probably the frontrunner, especially since it is one of the lighter entries in this category. Star James Martin has been everywhere in the press, and audiences can’t get enough of him. Aneil Karia and Riz Ahmed won last year for the masterful film, The Long Goodbye, so perhaps having a farewell in the title is good luck.
When I talk to people casually about what they like in this year’s shorts presentation, they always tell me that they are impressed with the tension that Cyrus Neshvad delivers in The Red Suitcase. The film centers on a young woman who is trying to escape the patriarchal hold of an arranged marriage to a much older man, but she has no real plan in place. It puts the audience in her shoes and the film makes us question a lot of things when it comes to how women are presented in media and in advertisements.
Another thing to consider is that producer Kim Magnussen earned his seventh nomination for Ivalu–he has won twice (for 2013’s Helium and 1998’s Valgaften). If people are a fan of his work, they might vote for his film. Ivalu is also a tender story about a young girl who is forced to face adult questions before she should have to, and it’s gorgeously shot.
Alfonso Cuaron is a producer on Le Pupille–will they go for name recognition?
Prediction: The Red Suitcase (on the shakiest of limbs) or An Irish Goodbye
Spoiler: Ivalu
Documentary Short Film
The nominees:
The Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year?
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
Elephants or walruses? Malala or home movies? Hey, maybe Martha Mitchell just takes the whole damn thing.
I think this category is more stacked than we think it is, but I think it comes down to two films: Netflix’s The Elephant Whisperers and Joshua Seftel’s Stranger at the Gate.
Malala Yousafzai hopped on board as a producer to Seftel’s film in mid-January, and she has been everywhere promoting it. Seftel doesn’t give easy answers to the threat of violence, but it never loses its message of redemption and hope. When we jokes that sometimes voters go just on the title, I think Stranger fits that nicely.
On the other side of the race is Kartiki Gonsalves’ beautifully shot film about a couple who care for elephants like their own children. It’s an accessible, easy-to-watch film that would make a worthy winner. Netflix is a usual presence in this category, but they haven’t won since Period. End of Sentence in 2018 and The White Helmets in 2016. Could this be their year to swing back?
The one to watch for, I think, is Maxim Arbugaev and Evgenia Arbugaeva’s Haulout. So many audiences have spoken about the imagery and the shocking moment when Maxim Chakilev opens his cabin door to find himself surrounded by thousands and thousands of walruses. Will that surprise compel viewers to vote for Haulout?
Prediction: Stranger at the Gate
Spoiler: Haulout