Ben Affleck’s Air has opened to strong reviews coming out of South by Southwest.
It has general audience appeal, I’d say. A popular subject with popular actors. But we play this dumb game in the Oscar race every year. We like to build them up then tear them down. Affleck knows this rollercoaster ride very well, not just in his personal life but with his films. I have my own regrettable history with Argo – where I built it up then attempted to tear it down when I saw that it was going to do what Everything Everywhere All At Once just did (and then some), aka “win everything.” I thought Lincoln was the better movie but you know, the movie I think is the better movie never wins but for a few times, like No Country for Old Men or The Departed.
Either way, I am sort of rooting quietly for Air to be that movie that is popular and then makes money and then is nominated for its success rather than being “slotted in” so that all pundits put it at number one, curse it with frontrunner status, only to see a scrappy underdog rise up and overtake it. This has happened too many times because people get bored, which I understand. There are too many people covering the race now and not enough of an industry to justify it so a movie like Air becomes the one breadcrumb tossed on a beach to hungry seagulls.
There is another reason to root for Air and that’s the who, what and where of it. A production company started by Ben Affleck and Matt Damon that will give shared to the actors, “Artists Equity, with Damon, was founded on the premise of profit-sharing among not only directors, producers, and actors but also crewmembers such as cinematographers, editors, and costume designers.”
Affleck and Damon obtained at least $100 million in financing from investment firm RedBird Capital Partners to start and made their own financial contributions to Artists Equity, with Affleck, 50, serving as CEO, and Damon, 52, as chief creative officer. “Ben and I have both been making movies for over 30 years,” says Damon. “We know the things that actually matter to people — but ask Ben to see the spreadsheets.”
Moreover, it’s an Amazon theatrical release to see if maybe streamers can help breathe new life into theatrical:
All of these are good reasons to see this as an “Oscar contender,” but only if it “plays,” which I hope it does. It is going to take a village to expand the Oscars and the film industry outward for the people so it doesn’t become an insular bubble (like Barbie World). The trailer already has 12 million views.
It’s the kind of movie I am hoping will make a comeback because it is directed by Ben Affleck and written by Alex Convery. The trend of directors writing their own screenplays has become, I think, a bit of a naval gazing exercise that doesn’t have anywhere to go. This makes it all much more expansive (in my view).
In other words, go Ben and Matt go.
:As Affleck notes in his director’s statement, “Air is not Michael Jordan’s story, but there is no story without him.”
Sooo..
This is what i call ‘ directors ego syndrome’ frankly as talented as Affleck is as much as I admire him to be honest he not done enough feature films of massive public appeal or relevance bar 1 – good will hunting as writer – to be doing grandiose , self contradictory crap statements and actions like the above .
So as per above quote I BIG on this — Air cannot not have Michael Jordan , but at same time CANNOT HAVE Michael Jordan literally in it ?
Heaven save modern Hollywood from itself fukin he’ll honestly ? This new fad of backwards reverse logic I honestly thought Affleck of all today’s filmmakers having been raised in Hollywood telling and starring in strong meaty central character defined stories trying to sell the idea for film supposedly as a Oscar contender it refers ro Jordan as some enigmatic entity where by dialogue support cast so to speak that pivot from Michael Jordan’s influence , in fact ..it everyone AROUMD JORDAN not the central key fundamental player himself key to success of Nike air??
Backwards reverse logic illogical clap trap .. I prioritising seeing John Wick chapter 4 cos at least it doesn’t try to hover and hesitate around the TRUE KEY protagonist central character!
Furthermore I working on a theory here. But given Oscar are trapped in ‘ Oscars so white ‘ mentality prism.. lately .. endlessly in different manifestations ..last Oscars it was gaga overboard insanely so for the Asian breakthrough … as much as that good for industry it’s till agreed on balance it was flawed and reckless to give it everything at once !
But when this year’s Oscars come around in febrile feral climate of pro – black and pro- minorityovershadowing blanketing anything every contender all at once as per Oscars delusional decree. Does AIR fit that criteria really ?regardless it potential box office success how would oscartruly look at a film that actually purposefully undermines and disgards a central famous giant of world sport who is black ? Isn’t it hypocritical of Oscars own rule of thumb they treat as a bible of some sort that a film ‘ must have central strong character of color to qualify as Oscar contender a strong one ? ‘
Affleck may be Oscars darling past..but seriously? How canAIR have a hope in hell in a time Oscar expect and pressure those studios who wish their films be Oscar contenders where it about central black character true story especially that it NEED the film- to have a fundamental core presence of Black character at heart of a story ?
So frankly IF AIR and it only an IF get best picture nomination even ..doesn’t this absolutely trash Oscars holier than though expectation forever that ‘ they about inckusivity R.A.I.S.E criteria increasing where minority group representations are at heart of starting role in the films that be Oscar contenders?
If there one reason despite me not buying AIR as deserved Oscar contender but i in perverted way welxome it is this regardless it success it this: that AIR could expose and lay to waste long overdue Oscars stubborn deluded selfish stupid insistence that minority ethnicities are strongly expected to be CENTRAL in order to be Oscar contenders … AIR nomination for best pic maybe could rebalance the body politic and expose public held view of how Oscar become so diabolically out of touch with most of us… that Oscar may nominate best picture film like AIR that cuts out the main man and a giant icon of black sports hopes snd dreams in JORDAN himself and it get accolades in awards season for that ? Well COULD BE THE FILM.that shows up and lays bare once and for all Oscars own hypocrisy and overbloatrd arrogant expectation that minority group representation Isa FUNDAMENTAL CORE REWUIREMENT FLR FILM WIN BEST PICTURE their R.A.I.S.E DOCYRINE SAYS THIS…
Overall I don’t know how I feel whether I prepared to buy into notion AIR is a masterpiece or not unlikely I see it asAfflecks best picture no way!
Imagine getting the call. The voice on the other end tells you you got the job. It may be as a caterer, a production assistant, maybe the second cameraperson. And you go to work, it’s the first day, only to discover the film is about a thirteen year old who commits suicide. How to you go to work every day. How do you not fall apart.
How do you see it, the final scene. Have him run through a field of fiercely bright flowers, then have him stop and look back and you hold the camera on him, motionless for like 15 seconds. And then as soon as he turns back around to continue forward, you immediately go to black. How do you come up with that.
How, as a critic do you write “there is an immaturity to his films.” How, as a voter, do you look past and check off something else.
How do I, as a viewer, move on to the next film. How do I turn back forward and start running again through that field of fiercely bright flowers.
I don’t know.
Thank you for this, rufussondheim. We’re lucky that you’re part of our AD community. I hope you find support from the rapport we have with you here.
I think this is a weird year beforehand… the only movie that I feel may be a sure bet for BP win is Oppenheimer, honestly. Killers of the Flower Moon, The Killer, Napoleon may come next in line, but I don’t really see any of them as winners. Beau is Afraid and Barbie might be too divisive. I think the dark horse that no one sees coming anymore, may be Next Goal Wins, which is Taika Waititi far from Marvel and with a tiny story that he can propel to the stratosphere, if people can overcome the Arnie Hammer fiasco… the movie probably will feel cute enough (and its biggest competition, Champions, hasn’t scored the hit that it could have been, comparing to the spanish original, which was a blockbuster AND a Best Picture winner at the Goyas). Given last years, I would be betting it could be – in the end – as a clash between the prestige biopic (Oppenheimer, maybe Maestro) and the feel good irresistible little film (Green Book, CODA, EEAAO, I mean Next Goal Wins or something along that line… maybe Asteroid City?)
Hammer is no longer in Next Goal Wins (they reshot his part with Will Arnett. However, I wonder how tired of the Taika Waititi thing people are at this point after the mixed response to Jojo Rabbit and the downright negative response to Thor: Love and Thunder
that’s why I pointed out that he’s far from Marvel in this project… this aims to a similar appeal to Hunt of the Wilderpeople, which would right now, if released today, totally be a contender in multiple categories.
And I don’t think this one can be compared to Jojo Rabbitt, no Hitler involved, no political discourse, this is just a feel-good movie
“mixed response to Jojo Rabbit”
LoL. Mixed response from the critics who have no idea what satire is..!
Jojo Rabbit is a widely LOVED movie.
Affleck could suffer ‘ filmmaking comparison syndrome ‘ ARGO ‘ and ‘GONE GIRL’ are the barometer ny which his films should be assessed I don’t frankly see AIR as being a bog time contender. In fact to NOT have courage and trust in his filmmaking capacity to properly have proper focL point of Michael Jordan central.to the film will diminish it ability go distance come Oscar time.
It feels to me that Oppenheimer, Napoleon, Killers of Flower Moon, Roosevelt , Ferrari , Asteroid City, Bernstein, Saltburn, DUNE II and color purple remake will have more buzz and higher profile above AIR cos least those films thry don’t try to omit or minimise central characters absolutely relevant to it story setting and films goals.. I think lot us should be disappointed in Ben affleck latest film to refuse have Michael Jordan cast as central performance presence explains it meagre runtime should be 2.20 mins given such game changer moment for way marketing and shoes redefined for consumers n rile Michael.joedan.played in elevating profile of nike air… to me it miss the mark cos film refuses to hVe Michael.jordan in central major role u gotta wonder frankly would it have an even BIGGER impression and make more even as opening in box office if affleck had courage to properly gave Jordan in it ? It diminishes value of film bypassing largely central character in this whole saga c? That is really disappointing Al so for revord it RT and metacriric score down to.very good from spectacular heights now 93% still excellent but simply not at top gun Maverick level and be sirpassable by olot other contenders next Oscar season I only think AIR should be watched on streaming just doesn’t scream ‘ big screen experience ‘ to me
Air is exactly the kind of film that I don’t think is any good but when it gets a best picture nomination, I can’t actually muster the energy to be annoyed about it because the film is neither risible enough nor are the narratives probably associated with it going to be frustrating enough (because eventually the season forgets the films and turns everything into their narratives) for it to be a genuine problem to me. Then again, at the same time it feels like a perfect This Had Oscar Buzz movie.
^^
WHAT???
I wouldn’t underestimate the combined charm and star power of Damon, Affleck and just snubbed Davis… just remember how Argo went all the way with the hysterical argument hat Affleck was robbed from the chance to win Best Director, despite the hilariously bad Airport climax.
I think that there is a very good chance that this winds up being a best picture nominee (especially if it passes whatever threshold it needs to financially to be perceived as “successful”) with other nominations for the script, Davis and the editing. If things fall correctly, it could even be a top 5 movie and get a directing nomination for Affleck. But at the same time, it’s not like there haven’t been Spring contenders that eventually fall completely flat in the actual awards season before.
Off topic:
I have recently seen Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher starring Mark Ruffalo, Steve Carell and Channing Tatum in the leading roles.
Overall Grade: A (100)
Bennett Miller’s Masterpiece in Filmmaking…
One of the best psychological thrillers I have ever seen in my life. I wasn’t expecting to see such a well made and “daring” piece, honestly. I like Birdman and I wouldn’t much complain about Inarritu’s Best Director Oscar but what Miller did here is just in another league.
This should have swept the Oscars in a just world – including Picture, Director, Actor and Screenplay.
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When will it be released to theaters?
Bennett Miller has been DRASTICALLY under appreciated. I’ve loved every one of his films, it’s like he gets better with every one. He may have a great track record with Oscar, but like, I rarely see people include him in great working directors. I wish he did more.
ALSO random question:
When did you start getting into Oscar watching? Because I’m surprised you didn’t see it back then, which is why I ask…..
“When did you start getting into Oscar watching?”
Not long ago 🙂
My first ceremony was 2008– Slumdog year…..better known as The year The Curious Case of Benjamin Button was robbed of winning picture, director, actor, and a nomination for Cate Blanchett.
it was quite good, but masterpiece? I don’t felt it was.
I think Bennett Miller’s directorial input here is comparable with all time greats.
It was too good for the Oscars..!
I was particularly impressed with Channing Tatum.
He was so good. He should have been nominated for Best Actor – alongside Steve Carell..
Opening day… more than 3 million domestic, on Wednesday… that can easily launch it to a 30-40 million opening for the 5 day Easter weekend. If the film reaches 100 million, I’d say it would be a surefire contender for a BP nomination… but what else can it achieve? Davis as Supporting Actress? I only feel those two, plus screenplay and maybe film editing, but that’s a longer shot. Key for Air would be to score a SAG Ensemble nomination and a nice showing at the Globes…
It’s an amazon studio picture. It will go straight to streamer. The reason they released it to theaters is because of potential for awards.
first they need to do some bucks to fund the campaign afterwards. If it is not perceived as a success, it won’t have a chance. This is how all Netflix films struggle even to get the nom, with a couple of exceptions.
BEST NEWS EVER!
Of an Age will stream for free on Peacock starting April 7 (Friday)
WHich means you can watch it 36 times before Monday!
I watched it again. I think it’s my fave ever now.
AIR is better than all of last year’s Best Picture nominees. You guys better see it in the theater.
hahahahahahaha
Not better than Banshees, but yes, better than the rest.
No, it most definitely is NOT.
“Affleck believed that once audiences saw the character’s face and were distracted by Air’s Michael Jordan being portrayed on-screen by someone else, they would disconnect from the rest of the film and actively see it as “fake.” To keep audiences invested, the illusion of the young actor being the real Michael Jordan was maintained by not showing his face. Affleck joked that the only actor who could play Michael Jordan was “a little old to play this part” and that they “probably couldn’t afford him,” seemingly referencing the player himself. Young’s face may not be seen in Air, but Affleck judged him the right actor to replicate the stance and build of the legendary basketball player in the movie.”
According to multiple sources. Yea rrright I have an idea let make new era of movies where historic significance is defined by theological theoretical construct rather than presenting the ACTUAL character on the big screen.
Oh ‘AIR’ is in the Gun now.. I read somewhere too that future young generation aspiring writers coming theiugh publications ranks… one had idea of James bond series where wait for it … there NO APPEARANCE OF JAMES BOND until latter part of first chapter and second chapter idea being…that support characters spend most there rime trying find BOND what load bullshit.
Imagine Elvis without Elvis . What stinker of film that be …for baz if he went down ‘ metaphorical ‘ philosophical path ‘ .
The ENTIRE FOUNDATION OF ‘AIR’ is entirely driven by central selling point Michael damn Jordan ! Shoe success the brand evolution became blockbuster phenomena in itself BECAUASE MICHAEL JORDAN wearing those shoes no JORDAN = underselling the significant feat of story brbind ‘ AIR’ NIKE AIR WOULD NOT TAKEN OFF WITHOUT JORDANS ENDORSEMENT JORDANS DIRECT PROMOTION !
G-D I HOPE AFFLECK NOT FALLEN PREY TO THE PC BRIGADE .. HIS RATIONALE TO ME SOUND LIKE LAME EXCUSE OF :” OH YA KNOW IT JUST TOO HARD GET PORTRAYAL OF MICHAEL JORDAN RIGHT … WELL AFFLECK MATE.. THEY DAMN WELL NAILED IT LARGELY WITH FIRST ELVIS BIOPIC IN DECADES!! MOSTBPPLE HAVE ISSUE WITH ELVIS PORTRAYAL BY AUATIN BUTLER , ? NOOOOOO
Let do third top gun Maverick movie sequel inevitable without Maverick let do metaphors for fear that we offend moat avid fans do abstract constructs by referring to ‘ invisible’ Michael Jordan.
Honestly this explains it ultra modest run time of 1.52 mins.. interesting unlike top gun Maverick critics not hailing -“AIR ” masterpiece nowhere near extent top gun Maverick common theme in lot reviews are it ‘ very light entertaining with some dramatic funny moments’ .. int err sting on other hand number increasing notably more in last week sure it rt score 95,^ “% down 4% from it riduculous high … of 99% week ago…
BUT any dramatic gravitas is undermined by weak feeble excuses some modern filmmakers fall into trap of. IF AIR not convincing enough to next years Oscars and Guilds may be cos fateful decision to cur common sense snd rationale reasoning by not having courage to bring Michael Jordan substantially As strong presence in film ? Hmm.. lemme think here : Nike air broke sales records because Michael.Jordan wore the shoe endorsed it …but oh nooo.
. Where central protagonist in Air film ? And critics call this shit filmmaking ‘ genius ‘?
Or maybe Oscar gift the film find a way to cut out 5he middleman think ‘ film has most minimal.risk offend historians or say the Jordan family wins..
My bloody gosh Affleck guy who done truly remarkable films now falling prey to this ‘ no offend pc brigade ‘
Newsflash Michael Jordan for his greatness and icon in basketball is no dalai lama.. the way in his interviews Affleck speaks of Jordan though it breach of tenth commandment or some desecration of his tomb… is this how we tell stories that win best picture? Cut out historical truth and fact cut out man who made ‘air’ in Nike elevate to stratospheric levels ? I don’t buy nor djould any of us that adding extra 30 Mina runtime expanding AIR script incorporate invaluable immeasurable role of Jordan himself would somehow bring down rest of film it screams of gutless lack of conviction by filmmaker who still trying prob too hard reach heights of Argo.. what u think ? Could Air have more impact resonance if Affleck included direct narrative to and staring actor in scenes properly not veiled pass by moment if Michael Jordan himself ? Could it been all greater for big parts in overall narrative starring Michael Jordan? What u think ?
^^
WHAT????
No, not a chance it will be serious oscar contender. Screenwriting? I doubt that. Viola Davis – just maybe. But probably in January it will be snubbed completely, pushed out by many other movies that will be fresh in conversation.
Would love to see him back in the awards conversation.
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That’s a no from me.
And a big yes from me. Go Woody!
Very much looking forward to see Coup de Chance (even though Woody Allen hasn´t made a great film in quite a spell)!
Totally Off-Topic!
The Arden Theater in Philadelphia just announced it’s next season. It contains Assassins.
I saw a production of Assassins there about 10 years ago and it remains one of the most amazing theatrical experiences. It is a complete musical, gorgeous music and enough intellectual content to match any movie or TV show out there. It will change the way you look at not only our American system of justice, but the way you perceive the world we are now living in.
(And no, it’s not pro-assassin)
If you live near Philly, I can’t recommend it highly enough.
Movie release date shifting update!
Aquaman & The Lost Kingdom and The Color Purple musical swap December dates. ATLK moves up to 12/20, TCP drops back to Christmas Day.
Warner Bros. sends The Wise Guys to 2/2/24. Animated ‘Toto’ was supposed to be there, Wizard of Oz followup is now undated. Minecraft gets 4/4/25 date, unnamed movie for 12/19/25.
Well, I just came from the Air movie. It’s a 7/8** movie. Enjoyable to watch, but not a BEST movie IMO. I don’t think we have a BEST movie yet.
Also, it’s an Amazon studio release, released to the theaters in the hopes of snagging some awards and will be online (free) in about one month. Scriptwriting – yes! Acting- no! All the actors were on their game. I didn’t think Viola Davis did such a great job and her role could have been played by any black actress in her 40s or 50s. Regina Hall? Regina King? Taraji? And Viola’s makeup was atrocious, I can’t believe she signed off on the makeup. She could have gone bare faced.
Anywho, movie was watchable and held my interest and I’m not into sports. I thought Chris Tucker overplayed Howard White, but Chris Tucker brought energy to his role. When he was on screen – you noticed.
Evil Dead Rise is a best movie, and certainly the best horror film since The Babadook.
“Mommy’s with the maggots now.”
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WHAT????
The film is certifiably insane and great.
It is projected to make 15-16 million for this 5-day holiday weekend. Moving forward, with great holds, it can maybe get to 60-70, I would say. Maybe less, maybe more. Won’t be a barn burner, but could have a respectable number.
It’s only going to be in theaters for about a week and then it moves online to Amazon Prime. Had I known that I would have saved the $11 I paid to see it :). Amazon is doing what Netflix does – first a theatrical release to qualify it for awards. Scriptwriting – yes. Acting – no. I don’t think anyone did anything spectacular in their role.
MTV Movie/TV Awards nominations just dropped (movie only here):
MOVIE
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Nope
Scream VI
Smile
Top Gun: Maverick
BEST SHOW
Stranger Things
The Last of Us
The White Lotus
Wednesday
Wolf Pack
Yellowstone
Yellowjackets
MOVIE BEST PERFORMANCE
Austin Butler — Elvis
Florence Pugh — Don’t Worry Darling
KeKe Palmer — Nope
Michael B. Jordan — Creed III
Tom Cruise — Top Gun: Maverick
The rest are movie/tv hybrid categories
HERO
Diego Luna — Andor
Jenna Ortega — Wednesday
Paul Rudd — Ant-Man & The Wasp: Quantumania
Pedro Pascal — The Last Of Us
Tom Cruise — Top Gun: Maverick
VILLAIN
Elizabeth Olsen — Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
Harry Styles – Don’t Worry Darling
Jamie Campbell Bower — Stranger Things
M3GAN – M3GAN
The Bear — Cocaine Bear
KISS
Anna Torv + Philip Prajoux – The Last Of Us
Harry Styles + David Dawson – My Policeman
Madison Bailey + Rudy Pankow – Outer Banks
Riley Keough + Sam Claflin – Daisy Jones & The Six
Selena Gomez + Cara Delevingne – Only Murders in the Building
COMEDIC PERFORMANCE
Adam Sandler – Murder Mystery 2
Dylan O’Brien – Not Okay
Jennifer Coolidge – Shotgun Wedding
KeKe Palmer – Nope
Quinta Brunson – Abbott Elementary
BREAKTHROUGH
Bad Bunny – Bullet Train
Bella Ramsey – The Last Of Us
Emma D’Arcy – House of the Dragon
Joseph Quinn – Stranger Things
Rachel Sennott – Bodies Bodies Bodies
FIGHT
Brad Pitt (Ladybug) vs. Bad Bunny (The Wolf) – Bullet Train
Courteney Cox vs. Ghostface – Scream VI
Jamie Campbell Bower vs. Millie Bobby Brown (Eleven) – Stranger hings
Keanu Reeves (John Wick) vs. Everyone – John Wick 4
Escape from Narkina 5- Andor
MOST FRIGHTENED
Jennifer Coolidge – The White Lotus
Jesse Tyler Ferguson – Cocaine Bear
Justin Long – Barbarian
Rachel Sennott – Bodies Bodies Bodies
Sosie Bacon – Smile
DUO
Camila Mendes + Maya Hawke – Do Revenge
Jenna Ortega + Thing – Wednesday
Pedro Pascal + Bella Ramsey – The Last Of Us
Simona Tabasco + Beatrice Grannò – The White Lotus
Tom Cruise + Miles Teller – Top Gun: Maverick
KICK-ASS CAST
Ant-Man & The Wasp: Quantumania
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Outer Banks
Stranger Things
Teen Wolf: The Movie
SONG
Demi Lovato – Still Alive (Scream VI)
Doja Cat – Vegas (Elvis)
Lady Gaga – Hold My Hand (Top Gun: Maverick)
OneRepublic – I Ain’t Worried (Top Gun: Maverick)
Rihanna – Lift Me Up (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Taylor Swift – Carolina (Where The Crawdads Sing)
MUSIC DOCUMENTARY
Halftime
Love, Lizzo
Selena Gomez: My Mind & Me
Sheryl
The Day the Music Died: The Story of Don McLean’s American Pie
I am trying to figure out Kick-Ass Cast nominees. I am guessing that they didn’t see Aftersun.
Sub out One Republic for Naatu Naatu and this should’ve been the Oscar original song race. Gaga. Rihanna. Swift.
I assume EEAAO was ellegible last year?
Not in last year’s list at all. Quite frankly, a welcome respite from all the over the top genuflecting towards it.
well, we all know how much prestige this awards have… 😉
Off Topic:
Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers is going to Cannes to compete for Palme d’Or..!
Time to put Paul Giamatti’s name on the side tracker’s Best Actor list 🙂
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Giamatti is an underrated actor. Also Zero Dark Thirty was also better than Argo.
There are so many films rumored to go to Cannes this year, the festival is going to last all summer!
Almodovar’s gay western with Pedro Pascal and Ethan Hawke is set to open in Cannes as well, 2nd attempt of Pedro Almodovar to win the Oscar for Short Subject Live Action, after his The Human Voice snub.
Pro:
EEAAO showed that a spring release is not an impediment for a fall Oscar push
Ben Affleck HAS been part of a winning campaign, even if many after the fact roll their eyes at Argo’s “Poor Ben” messaging. But don’t laugh, the Dunkin’ Donuts campaign Affleck has been involved with is humanizing him after years of less than great press.
Viola Davis is likely the clubhouse leader for Best Supporting Actress, especially after the Riseborough hoo-rah.
It’s going to play well with SAG
Con:
Is Air really going to make the kind of money EEAAO did that really got that film into the conversation to begin with?
Are all the expected contenders this year going to faceplant at the box office and with the guilds like we saw last year? That’s what gave EEAAO the opening it needed despite having a great summer of Q & A screenings. If Banshees or Fabelmans had been hits instead of bombs the conversation might have been different.
Davis will be formidable, but look out for Patti LuPone because she’s coming and the NY wing of the Academy is going to rally around her HARD.
The big hitting contenders will also be tracking well with SAG. Yes, that includes Dune Part II (which is my tentative pick for Best Picture right now)
The looming WGA strike is kind of centered on creatives being REALLY pissed off at streamers. And Amazon already has image issues as it is. And I suspect streamer politics is what kept All Quiet from pulling the upset.
Patti LuPone is not a great actress. She’s a great performer. Huge difference.
Just wait.
There is no doubt she is a legend. On Broadway. I really don’t know how large of a contingent that is.
Broadway stars don’t win Oscars. They don’t even get nominated for them. Most, in fact, don’t even get any good roles in films. (Ariana DeBose is the only exception I can think of – but she did it before she became well-known. Cynthia Erivo is breaking the trend, but she only had one major role on Broadway before breaking into film. A true exception here might be Kristin Chenoweth but most of her film work has been an embarrassment.
Of course, back in the day when musicals were common in Hollywood, people could transfer to film, Liza Minelli is obviously the best example, but don’t forget who her parents were so finding a home in Hollywood was expected.
But list the biggest stars of Broadway since 1980 or so and well, there are some household names like Bernadette Peters. But for each there’s a Kelli O’Hara.
As for the men, they seem to do better, but most that do still don’t win Oscars, the last to do so was Kevin Kline who won in 1981 for Pirates of Penzance. But there’s Nathan Lane, Jason Alexander, Alan Cumming. Hugh Jackman got his start in musical theater, but never appeared on Broadway until later in his career.
=======
I’m not trying to say you are wrong, I’m just skeptical.
Hope she does it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBfCmd6QNJU
Leslie Odom Jr. and Aunjanue Ellis both started on Broadway before getting Oscar nominations.
Aunjanue Ellis had one broadway performance before she branched out. In 1991. For a Shakespeare revival. No one would ever consider her a Broadway performer first and foremost.
Leslie Odom Jr is a better example. Obviously huge from Hamilton he has gotten work in film. But outside of that one role really isn’t a presence in the Broadway Community as much as some of the others considered above. (Coincidentally, he made his Broadway debut in Rent as Paul, replacing Rodney Hicks whom I met at Mansfield University when he played the Wolf opposite a future roommate of mine)
My favorite PLuP stories come from the State & Main dvd commentary. Sarah Jessica Parker got some baseball tickets for the cast near the end of filming and Patti shows up out of nowhere. Even though she had finished shooting a week or two earlier she ‘stuck around to hang out with everyone’ unbeknownst to all. In her commentary she keeps saying ‘me and Charlie (Charles Dance) and Dave (David Mamet) being together like old times (of which there were none)’
“EEAAO showed that a spring release is not an impediment for a fall Oscar push”
As long as you have the “narrative”..!
Or as long as people like your film and you campaign well.
Which Affleck has I think in terms of making a comeback.
Is this about a Top Gun 2 spinoff?
‘This has happened too many times because people get bored, which I understand. There are too many people covering the race now and not enough of an industry to justify it so a movie like Air becomes the one breadcrumb tossed on a beach to hungry seagulls”
not wrong there sasha I so relieved however deeply unfortunate it is you see fit be ultra cynical and sceptical of way Oscar exploit popular ultra high critically acclaimed movies .
But u know Oppenheimer , Napoleon, Roosevelt, Killer of Flower Moon could reach similar critical acclaim and heights publicly we just don’t know that present conundrum foe Oscars in best p9ssible way .
I rooting for AIR too buy long way go yet other big time players yet to come up lead into next awards season I c Air on Amazon prime soon… maybe in cinemas but I need prioritise n so I c movies primarily n only on big screen in cinema before hybrid string cinema release in cinema ..still brilliant Air first simultaneous streaming cinema release since streaming entered Oscar race .
This was shot by the great Robert Richardson.
Another reason to see this on a big screen.. 🙂
He has worked with Quentin Tarantino on multiple ocassions.
You left out the most important question: Is Affleck still sad about not getting a Best Director nomination for Argo? If so, it might be best to give him a couple more Oscars.
I’m here for it. Hope it’s good. Having Viola Davis will help.
At best, it can be slotted into the #2 slot.
After Leave the World Behind, of course.
Although Of an Age is better than both. Combined.