Tonys 2023: Nomination Predictions for All Major Categories

This year, almost everyone said that the Oscars were “back to normal,” so will that be the case with this year’s Tony Awards? Last year was the first awards since COVID darkened every theater in New York City, and A Strange Loop and The Lehman Trilogy took the top honors of the night. I am keeping my fingers crossed that Kimberly Akimbo can score a slew of nominations, and I am rooting for revivals like Parade and Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street as well as stars Sean Hayes, Jessica Chastain, and a big puppet tiger.

This is the first time we have predicted the Tony Awards at Awards Daily, so let’s see how we do!

Best Musical
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Watch out for: A Beautiful Noise, The Neil Diamond Musical

Nine musicals are eligible for the Tony’s top award, but this feels rather…clear? Even though there was a lot of nostalgia surrounding the closing of Andrew Lloyd Webber’s The Phantom of the Opera, that sentiment will not carry over to Bad Cinderella. Almost Famous was criticized for not being able to transfer from beloved film to rollicking stage show. KPOP only played a handful of performances.

Best Revival of a Musical
Camelot
Into the Woods
Parade
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Watch out for: Bob Fosse’s Dancin’

It stings that only four shows will make the cut for this category considering that only six musicals are eligible. Lerner & Loewe’s Camelot is the most recent production, and it was praised for its ravishing crafts and gorgeous score. Even with Aaron Sorkin revising the book, the New York Times review suggested that the production cannot overcome the script’s problems. Will that matter with this being the first revival of the show in thirty years? Jason Robert Brown’s Parade is timelier now than it was when it debuted in 1998, and Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street is one of the hottest tickets in town right now with Josh Groban returning to Broadway. I originally had Dancin’ in over Camelot, but, perhaps, the latter show has a better chance to get for some performances than the latest Bob Fosse revival?

Best Book of a Musical
& Juliet
Kimberly Akimbo 
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot

Book of a Musical and Best Musical don’t always line up, but it has the last 3 years? Can A Beautiful Noise knock something out? Musical biopics tend to get in–Ain’t Too Proud, Tina: The Tina Turner Musical, Beautiful: The Carole King Musical all made the cut–so who does Neil Diamond replace? & Juliet? New York, New York?

Best Original Score
Bad Cinderella
Kimberly Akimbo
Leopoldstadt
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Watch out for: Life of Pi

Am I crazy for including Lloyd Webber’s Bad Cinderella? Oh, probably. Since & Juliet and A Beautiful Noise are ineligible, that opens up two slots. During the merged, COVID year, The Lightning Thief: The Percy Jackson Musical was the only eligible original musical, so this category was comprised of music from plays.

Best Direction of a Musical
Kimberly Akimbo
Parade
Into the Woods
Some Like It Hot
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Watch out for: New York, New York

Revivals, revivals, revivals! Thomas Kail won this category for Hamilton, and his vision of Sondheim’s musical is not to be missed. When he wants it to be dark, it’s pitch black, but then he gives Annaleigh Ashford the room to spread her comic wings in an iconic role. When I saw Parade, I thought Michael Arden’s direction was the clearest and most precise vision of any show that I saw on that trip. With minimal staging, he allows the material to speak for itself.

Best Choreography
& Juliet
New York, New York
Shucked
Some Like It Hot
Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Watch out for: Bad Cinderella

Susan Stroman may miss for direction, but she should be mentioned here.

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Musical
Annaleigh Ashford, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Michaela Diamond, Parade
Victoria Clark, Kimberly Akimbo
Adrianna Hicks, Some Like It Hot
Phillippa Soo, Camelot
Watch out for: Anna Uzele, New York, New York and Lorna Courtney, & Juliet

Ashford is the horniest and silliest Lovett that I have ever seen, and Diamond is such an incredible force in Parade. Can anyone beat Clark’s joyous, beautiful performance as a young girl trying to outrun her illness? Clark left me on the floor.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Musical
Christian Borle, Some Like It Hot
Brian D’Arcy James, Into the Woods
J. Harrison Ghee, Some Like It Hot
Josh Groban, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Ben Platt, Parade
Watch out for: Will Swenson, A Beautiful Noise and Andrew Burnap, Camelot

Platt or Groban? Groban’s performance as the avenging barber is a more everyday take on character. Will voters go for his subtler choices? Fingers crossed that D’Arcy James’ performance as The Baker makes the cut.

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Musical
Robyn Hurder, A Beautiful Noise
Alli Mauzey, Kimberly Akimbo
Bonnie Milligan, Kimberly Akimbo
NaTasha Yvette Williams, Some Like It Hot
Betsy Wolfe, & Juliet
Watch out for: Julia Lester, Into the Woods

This is Milligan’s to lose. Her sly, scheming (but caring) aunt is a fan favorite. I want Ruthie Ann Miles to get in for her Beggar Woman from Sweeney.

Best Performance by a Featured Actor in a Musical
Justin Cooley, Kimberly Akimbo
Jordan Donica, Camelot
Kevin Del Aguila, Some Like It Hot
Gaten Matarazzo, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Alex Newell, Shucked
Watch out for: Alex Joseph Grayson, Parade

Does Newell take this in a walk, or will they have competition from Cooley, who, at nineteen, holds his own with the legendary Clark? Newell should’ve received a nomination for the Tony Award winning revival of Once On this Island.

Best Play
Between Riverside and Crazy
Fat Ham
Leopoldstadt
Life of Pi
Prima Facie
Watch out for: Ain’t No Mo’ or The Thanksgiving Play

There is a lot of “bigness” going up against a lot of impressive intimacy in this category. Tom Stoppard’s latest Leopoldstadt, the sprawling, ambitious show that the American Theater Wing drools over and respects, and Life of Pi won 5 Olivier Awards when it debuted in the West End. Pulitzer Prize-winning Fat Ham transferred to Broadway after a sold-out run at the Public, and Jodie Comer is earning raves for her one-woman performance in Prima Facie. Between Riverside and Crazy won the Pulitzer in 2015 and finally made its way to New York.

Best Revival of a Play
Death of a Salesman
A Doll’s House
The Piano Lesson
Topdog/Underdog
Watch out for: The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window

There is a lot of pedigree in this year’s eligible play revivals. The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window is the first time the Lorraine Hansberry play has been brought back to Broadway since 1964, and the play opened on the final day of Tony Awards eligibility. It doesn’t hurt that you have Oscar Isaac and Rachel Brosnahan leading the way. Even though the revival of August Wilson’s The Piano Lesson closed in January, voters should still remember the performances by Samuel L. Jackson, John David Washington, and Danielle Brooks, and Topdog/Underdog returned this season with Corey Hawkins and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II. The Hudson Theatre, located on West 44th Street, may have housed two entries in this year’s race. Wendell Pierce led a critically-acclaimed production of Death of a Salesman for 17 weeks back in the fall, and Jessica Chastain plays Nora in the latest revival of A Doll’s House. Can they both get in?

Best Direction of a Play
Death of a Salesman
A Doll’s House
Fat Ham
Leopoldstadt
Life of Pi
Watch out for: Topdog/Underdog, The Piano Lesson

I feel a lot can happen here. Am I overestimating the latest Ibsen revival?

Best Performance by a Leading Actress in a Play
Jessica Chastain, A Doll’s House
Jodie Comer, Prima Facie
Laura Linney, Summer, 1976
Audra McDonald, Ohio State Murders
Watch out for: Rachel Brosnahan, The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window

Audra McDonald could sneeze on a snare drum and get nominated, so even though Ohio State Murders closed early, don’t count her out. Summer, 1976 didn’t get the best reviews, but Linney has been nominated 5 times and has never won. Brosnahan could swap into one of those places since The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel is airing now and it just opened, so watch out.

Best Performance by a Leading Actor in a Play
Sean Hayes, Good Night, Oscar
Oscar Isaac, The Sign in Sidney Brustein’s Window
Wendell Pierce, Death of a Salesman
Marcel Spears, Fat Ham
John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
Watch out for: Corey Hawkins, Topdog/Underdog, Stephen McKinley Henderson, Between Riverside and Crazy, Jefferson Mays, A Christmas Carol

Best Performance by a Featured Actress in a Play
Daniel Brooks, The Piano Lesson
Faye Castelow, Leopoldstadt
Sharon D. Clarke, Death of a Salesman
Nikki Crawford, Fat Ham
Kara Young, Cost of Living
Watch out for: D’Arcy Carden, The Thanksgiving Play

Best Performance by a Features Actor in a Play
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
David Krumholtz, Leopoldstadt
Arian Moayed, A Doll’s House
Brandon Uranowitz, Leopoldstadt
David Zayas, Cost of Living
Watch out for: André De Shields, Death of a Salesman

I am really iffy on that Zayas mention, but I am sticking with it!