2024 Oscar Predictions: Beware the Oscar Buzz Machine

With the actors and writers still on strike, we pundits kind of have the room to ourselves. There are no late-night guest spots for viral moments, no roundtables at the trades that have become a staple, no magazine cover stories or big splashy interviews anywhere. It’s a lot like COVID times in that way. Thus, what we chatter about on a daily basis seems like it really matters. But when the strike is over and celebrities are back, the dynamic of the Oscar race is going to change. Although after last year’s huddle to push through a Best Actress contender using social media and private parties, there’s probably a kind of campaigning going on none of us can see.

The only big drama that happened in the last few days was that Anatomy of a Fall was not chosen as France’s International Feature submission. Instead, they chose Pot-au-Feu (The Taste of Things), which is — I might say — a masterpiece. Old-timer Oscar watchers might be seduced into seeing The Taste of Things as a similar movie starring Juliette Binoche that upset the apple cart at the Oscars back in 2000, Chocolat. But these two films, despite having French food at the center, have nothing to do with each other.

Apparently, there were rumors swirling that Anatomy’s director, Justine Triet, criticized France’s funding of films and is against the Macron government, and that’s why the movie wasn’t chosen. And the director herself posted on Instagram that she thought Pot Au Feu was boring (although I can’t find that post).

I’m not sure why she would be “rightfully upset,” considering how close to France’s heart a film like Pot-au-Feu would be. It’s about French cooking, French history, a beloved French film actress, but mostly it’s about love — why wouldn’t they choose it? Also, Anatomy of a Fall might have won the Palme at Cannes, but Pot-au-Feu won Best Director there too.

At any rate, I imagine the kerfuffle over that will lead to the typical overreaction by critics, considering Triet is a female director and the film is well-liked by most. That could lead to top category nominations, which many are already predicting now: Best Picture, Director, Screenplay, Actress. So I’m not sure why they would begrudge Pot-au-Feu’s best shot at any nominations, other than possibly Best Actress.

The UK has selected The Zone of Interest as their International Feature pick, which could mean that movie easily beats Pot-au-Feu, unless of course voters actually watch the movies. If they do, they might swoon for the French movie. I certainly did. It’s hard to talk about the film without giving away spoilers, which is why so many people think it’s just a cooking movie. But it’s a lot more than that. It’s really about finding joy, finding connections with people that are rare and sometimes only once in a lifetime. Written and directed by Anh Hung Tran, the film is a love letter to his own wife — which, in its own way, is the whole point of the film.

These three films are all very strong and it’s a good year if they’re in the Oscar race.

The big shake-up this week was American Fiction winning the People’s Choice Award in Toronto last Sunday. Described as a sharp satire about race, it bested both The Holdovers and The Boy and His Heron, which is quite impressive and enough to land in this year’s Best Picture race, without a doubt. The book was published in 2010, long before #OscarsSoWhite and the rise of what many people call “woke” ideology and inclusivity mandates, and it was more or less about the cliched depictions of Black characters as always downtrodden. We know things aren’t like that anymore because there has been a renaissance of Black filmmakers since then who have been telling all different kinds of stories about the Black experience, not all of them about negative stereotypes — in fact, exactly the opposite. I think of Ava DuVernay’s excellent series, Queen Sugar, for example.

Still, American Fiction was good enough to win the Audience Award, which makes it seemingly a strong shot for a Best Picture nomination. Let’s look at the past winners:

The winners and the runners-up tend to win something, except for last year.

If not for the sole negative review by Candice Frederick, American Fiction would have a 100% RT score. As it is, it has very high 96%.

The film’s success means it upsets the apple card in Best Actor too. It’s a mistake to think the race is all locked up right now, as there are still films to be seen and two more big festivals ahead, but I’d say Jeffrey Wright is in a good position to earn a nomination, and the film would be in line, potentially, for Best Director. Screenplay seems like a certainty, and could even be the frontrunner at the moment.

Let’s look at the Best Director category, along with Adapted Screenplay.

The way the Oscar race works in a typical year it that it’s generally not like the last one where a rapture takes hold and one film wins everything, but a year where voters feel they need to split the top prizes. Very rarely in the modern era does a film win all three of Picture, Director and Screenplay.

Since the expanded ballot in 2009:

Won Picture + Screenplay
CODA (The Power of the Dog won Director)
Green Book (ROMA won Director)
Moonlight (La La Land won Director)
Spotlight (The Revenant won Director)
12 Years a Slave (Gravity won Director)
Argo (Life of Pie won Director, Argo not nominated)

Won Picture + Screenplay + Director
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Parasite
Birdman
The King’s Speech
The Hurt Locker

Won Picture + Director
Nomadland
The Shape of Water
The Artist

It’s not clear if we’re in a year where the top prizes split or whether there will be one movie to rule them all. American Fiction lands in the adapted category, which puts it directly up against the two frontrunners, Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon. These two films are strong in Picture, Director, Screenplay, in acting and the crafts, which makes them both Oscar juggernauts. Either of them could benefit from a split, taking either Picture or Director, without taking Screenplay.

Similarly, Alexander Payne’s film The Holdovers, which was runner-up to American Fiction at TIFF, doesn’t have to compete directly with American Fiction in the Screenplay category. That could mean both films win a Screenplay prize. On the other hand, The Holdovers will have to compete against Past Lives and Barbie, which would mean a white male triumphing over women, etc.

Here is how AwardsWatch’s Erik Anderson sees Adapted Screenplay:

1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (-)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (-)
3. Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (-)
4. The Zone of Interest (A24) (-)
5. American Fiction (MGM/Orion) (▲)
6. All of Us Strangers (Searchlight Pictures) (▲)
7. Priscilla (A24) (▼)
8. Origin (NEON) (▲)
9. The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (▼)
10. Nyad (Netflix) (-)

And here is how he sees Original:

1. Barbie (Warner Bros) (-)
2. The Holdovers (Focus Features) (-)
3. Past Lives (A24) (-)
4. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) (▲)
5. Maestro (Netflix) (▲)
6. Saltburn (Amazon Studios) (▼)
7. Air (Amazon Studios) (▲)
8. May December (Netflix) (▼)
9. The Boy and the Heron (GKIDS) (▲)
10. Fair Play (Netflix) (▼)

He’s got The Holdovers sandwiched between Barbie and Past Lives, just ahead of Anatomy of a Fall (another female writer) and Maestro.

Best Director from Erik looks like this:

1. Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures) (-)
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) (-)
3. Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest (A24)
4. Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things (Searchlight Pictures) (▲)
5. Greta Gerwig – Barbie (Warner Bros) (▼)
6. Alexander Payne – The Holdovers (Focus Features) (▼)
7. Bradley Cooper – Maestro (Netflix) (-)
8. Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) (▼)
9. Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple (Warner Bros) (▼)
10.  Cord Jefferson – American Fiction (MGM/Orion) (▲)

Considering what just happened in International Feature, I wonder if Justine Triet might not take Jonathan Glazer’s place in the Best Director lineup.

This time last year, I had it almost completely wrong, as did most of us. The Oscar race is not static. It doesn’t always go the way we think it will. Momentum builds as each award is handed down. We don’t even know what the driving themes will be, what the mood of the voters will be, and whether these strikes will ever end.

Here are my predictions this week, FWIW.

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Holdovers
Poor Things
Barbie
Maestro
American Fiction
The Boys in the Boat
Past Lives
The Color Purple

Alts: Zone of Interest, The Killer, All of Us Strangers, Air, Saltburn, Rustin

Best Director
Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alexander Payne, The Holdovers
Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things
Greta Gerwig, Barbie
Alts: Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall; Cord Jefferson, American Fiction; David Fincher, The Killer; Bradley Cooper, Maestro; Jonathan Glazer, Zone of Interest

Best Actress
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall
Alts: Annette Bening, Nyad; Margot Robbie, Barbie; Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders; Cailee Spaeny, Priscilla

Best Actor
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Colman Domingo, Rustin
Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon
Alts: Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction; Andrew Scott, All of Us Strangers; Nicolas Cage, Dream Scenario; Michael Fassbender, The Killer

Supporting Actor
Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer
Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
Ryan Gosling, Barbie
Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
Alts: Willem Dafoe, Poor Things; Matt Damon, Oppenheimer; Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers; Tom Hardy, The Bikeriders

Supporting Actress
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
America Ferrera, Barbie
Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer
Jodie Foster, Nyad
Taraji P. Henson, The Color Purple
Alts: Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple; Julianne Moore, May December

Adapted Screenplay
Oppenheimer
American Fiction
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
All of Us Strangers
Alts: The Killer, The Color Purple, The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay
The Holdovers
Barbie
Past Lives
Anatomy of a Fall
Maestro

Editing
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Killer
Poor Things
The Holdovers

Cinematography
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Poor Things
The Killer
Maestro

Costumes
Poor Things
Barbie
Napoleon
Maestro
Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design
Poor Things
Barbie
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Napoleon

Animated Feature
The Boy and the Heron
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget
Elemental
Wish