Good As Gold: 2024 Oscar Predictions Post Venice, Telluride, and Toronto

With the major Fall film festivals – Venice, Telluride, and Toronto – behind us, it’s time to shift our focus to the 2024 Oscar race. It’s all fun and games until we actually see the films, right? Despite the hurdles such as the writers’ and actors’ strikes, this year promises to be a remarkable one for the film industry. Of course, some films like Denis Villeneuve’s “Dune Part Two” and Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers” have been pushed to 2024 due to necessary reasons, but we still have a substantial lineup that promises some fierce competition in a variety of categories.

For the first time in the Covid era, we’ve seen people flock back to the theaters for Barbenheimer – an unprecedented occurrence we may never see the likes of again. The twin summer blockbusters are likely to flood the nomination ballots come Oscar-time. Both are incredibly well written, directed, acted, and crafted.

While Sundance and Cannes mark the beginning of the festival circuit each year, the true commencement of awards season unfolds with the dual showcases at Venice and Telluride.

At Venice, Yorgos Lanthimos’s unconventional and peculiar comedy, Poor Things, stole the spotlight, clinching the top prize – The Golden Lion. Poor Things is poised to be a major contender at the Oscars, thanks to the exceptional performances by Emma Stone, Mark Ruffalo, and Willem Dafoe, coupled with its electrifying production design, costumes, and other remarkable technical achievements. Additionally at Venice, Bradley Cooper’s Maestro, David Fincher’s The Killer, and Sofia Coppola’s Priscilla garnered strong initial reviews. Maestro appears to be the most Oscar-friendly of the trio, with Carey Mulligan receiving praise for her turn.

Meanwhile, Telluride echoed the success of Poor Things, solidifying its status as a potential frontrunner, especially among film critics (see Michael Patterson’s composite rankings this year). Joining Poor Things in the awards race were two international gems – Justine Triet’s extraordinary Anatomy of a Fall and Jonathan Glazer’s devastating The Zone of Interest, both starring Sandra Hüller. Hüller could contend with Emma Stone in the Lead Actress category for Anatomy and go Supporting for Zone. Telluride also showcased Alexander Payne’s The Holdovers (featuring Oscar-worthy performances by Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph), Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers (highlighted by Andrew Scott’s career-best performance), and Emerald Fennell’s wild and erotic Saltburn. Annette Bening and Jodie Foster are likely to be in contention for their lead and supporting performances in Nyad, a crowd-pleasing biopic based on the true story of Diana Nyad’s historic swim from Cuba to Florida. Another audience-friendly biographical film, Rustin, stars Colman Domingo as the titular Bayard Rustin, the organizer of the 1963 Civil Rights March on Washington, a role poised for potential Oscar recognition.

The six films that I have projected to score the most nominations are:

1. Oppenheimer – 13
2. Poor Things – 12
3. Killers of the Flower Moon – 10
4. Barbie – 10
5. The Color Purple – 8
6. Maestro – 6

If this were to play out, it would be only the second time that four films received 10+ nominations in the same year. In 2019, Joker, Once Upon a Time In Hollywood, 1917, and The Irishman all achieved this feat. Of course, they all lost out to Parasite in the end.

Where do you see the Oscar race following Venice, Telluride, and Toronto? Check out my latest predictions here.