2024 Oscar Predictions: Is the Oscar Squad Thankful for ‘The Color Purple,’ ‘Napoleon?’

We’re headed into Thanksgiving, and most Oscar-contending films have been seen at this point. WB’s The Color Purple and Apple’s Napoleon had splashy screenings last week, and screeners of Amazon’s The Boys in the Band started rolling out this week (under embargo and not to all members of the Oscar Squad, just FYI). Based on that and some heavily buzzed industry screenings, there are a few key movements in the charts this week.

First up, The Color Purple has been seen with reactions pouring in across social media. To be sure, there are many, many raves for Blitz Bazawule’s adaptation of the Broadway musical. A few members of the Squad never lost faith in the film. Some took a “wait and see” approach. As the film rolls out more broadly through screenings and eventually critics reviews, we may see its fortunes change. A few things are certain. The film seems likely to please fans, if with a few minor quibbles here and there about changes from the various source materials. It will also most likely see a Best Picture nomination given prime end-of-year placement, a likely positive box office story, and a sterling reputation shepherded by Oprah Winfrey herself.

The Squad also reacted to the near unanimous praise for the cast. That’s most readily evident by Danielle Brooks leaping all the way to second place just under Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers. Taraji P. Henson also makes the top five, and Fantasia Barrino appears in a handful of Best Actress predictions. Some are even pointing to a nomination for Colman Domingo. Assuming he gets into Best Actor for Rustin, that would make him a double nominee for the 2024 Oscar race. Strangely, with all the acting love for the film, it’s not factoring into many below-the-line predictions yet, which is odd given that’s where you’d think a film like this would most strongly feature. Perhaps when more Squaddies see it for themselves…

Second, Napoleon finally screened for critics in the same week. Reactions were all over the place with some proclaiming it among director Ridley Scott’s best films. Others claimed it to be one of the worst films of the year. Divisiveness doesn’t tend to play well with the Academy. Last year’s Babylon garnered similar reactions and garnered only three Oscar nominations, ironically in the same categories in which many point to Napoleon being competitive: Costumes, Score, and Production Design. The Squad dropped Napoleon from any Picture or Actor mentions. It’s fortune, thanks to the early reaction and the fact that Apple’s campaign funds are likely going straight to Killers of the Flower Moon, seems to be strictly resigned to the crafts races.

Finally, Bradley Cooper’s Netflix film Maestro premiered way back to a relatively muted reception at the Venice Film Festival. However, recent screenings at North American film festivals have been much warmer, and social media this weekend was packed with multiple videos of standing ovations for Bradley Cooper and his co-stars. As such, the Squad vaulted Cooper all the way to first place in the Actor race, a potential sign that (like The Whale’s Brendan Fraser last year) it may be an inevitability that Cooper finally goes home with an Oscar. Interestingly, only Mark Johnson points to a direction nomination for Cooper. We’ll see how things shake out once guild nominations are revealed, though. It’s very early to tell how critical and revelatory a handful of industry screenings attended by stars really are.