Oscars 2024: AFI Predictions

Tomorrow, the AFI will announce their top ten films of the year. We didn’t have time to build a contest for that, but here are our predictions and their history. In general, they match at five or more names with the Oscars.

Our predictions here:

Sasha Stone
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Rustin

Ryan Adams
American Fiction
Barbie
Blackberry
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
May December
Oppenheimer
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
The Zone of Interest

Mark Johnson
Air
American Fiction
Barbie
The Color Purple
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimier
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Clarence Moye
Air
American Fiction
The Color Purple
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things

Marshall Flores
Air
American Fiction
Barbie
The Holdovers
Killers of the Flower Moon
Maestro
Oppenheimer
Past Lives
Poor Things
Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Here is the history, going back through the beginning of the expanded Best Picture lineup:

2022

Everything Everywhere All At Once
Avatar: The Way of Water
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Nope
She Said
TAR
Top Gun Maverick
The Woman King
Women Talking

2021

CODA
Don’t Look Up
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
tick, tick Boom!
The Tragedy of Macbeth
West Side Story

2020

Da 5 Bloods
Judas and the Black Messiah
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
One Night in Miami…
Soul
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7

2019

1917
The Farewell
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Knives Out
Little Women
Marriage Story
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Richard Jewell

Special Award:
Parasite

2018

Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Eighth Grade
The Favourite
First Reformed
Green Book
If Beale Street Could Talk
Mary Poppins Returns
A Quiet Place
A Star Is Born

Special award: Roma

2017

Call Me By Your Name
Dunkirk
Get Out
Lady Bird
The Big Sick
The Florida Project
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Wonder Woman

2016

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
La La Land
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Silence
Sully
Zootopia

2015

The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Carol
Inside Out
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
Room
Spotlight
The Force Awakens
Straight Outta Compton

2014

American Sniper
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
The Imitation Game
Interstellar
Into the Woods
Nightcrawler
Selma
Unbroken
Whiplash

2013

12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Fruitvale Station
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
The Wolf of Wall Street

2012

Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
The Dark Knight Rises
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

2011

Bridesmaids
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
J. Edgar
Midnight in Paris
Moneyball
The Tree of Life
War Horse
*The Artist – special citation

2010

127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The Social Network
The Town
The Kids Are All Right
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
*The King’s Speech – special citation