After a hellacious, catastrophic beat-down, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association has, at long last, pieced itself back together again, Humpty Dumpty style, to become something that resembles a respectable awards show. And in the parlance of our times, that means Diverse, Equitable, and Inclusive. They did it. They managed to finally become respectable enough again for the Royal Court to (perhaps) show up. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t. The first round of presenters has been announced:
Amanda Seyfried
Angela Bassett
Gabriel Macht
George Lopez
Julia Garner
Justin Hartley
Michelle Yeoh
Patrick J. Adams
Will Ferrell
Not a bad start for the new Penske-owned Golden Globes. At least we know that the trades will not add more fuel to the fire and piss off their boss. So perhaps the Titanic has been patched up for the time being. I am not really here for the re-arranging of the deck chairs of the Titanic so much as I am for the patterns of the Globes vis a vis the Oscar race.
Once a party of people who did not take themselves too seriously, the Globes have now taken its place in the Royal Court of Good Puritans, whose mission in life is to be seen as good people doing good things — making the world a better place one gold statue at a time. The rapture! Granted, this was their only route other than to cancel their entire show. Flipping off the Greek chorus, who stands in constant judgment of them, was not an option because the guy signing the check will be more worried about his/her reputation than earning a few more dollars at an awards show. And so that’s why we’re in this mess. Not enough oligarchs with balls of steel.
So let’s take a quick look at the influence of the Golden Globes over the past decade or so, to see just how influential they have been and where they might stand now that they’ve been let back inside the bubble of the utopian Left.
The Globes have traditionally been the “kiss of death,” more or less in the era of the preferential ballot. The best representative model was 2016 where La La Land broke records at the Globes for nominations and wins, but by the time the Oscars rolled around, the film had been hit with — and it embarrasses me to actually write this part but here goes — charges of racism, among other things. Trump’s win meant that the “resistance” needed a better representative winner than a frivolous love story directed by a white guy and starring white people.
It’s a good year to remember because that was also the year Emma Stone won for her performance. It’s also worth noting that her performance in Poor Things is ten times the performance of her work in La La Land, but having already won an Oscar dings her chances somewhat. Maybe. Maybe not. But we’ll get to that.
Best Picture
In looking back over Globes/Oscar history, since the year 2000, it rounds out like this:
The Globes winner for Drama matched with Oscar 8/24 times; the Globes winner for Musical/Comedy matched with Oscar 3/24 times. Overall, a Globes winner went on to win Best Picture in 11/24 years.
By contrast, the PGA and Oscar have matched 16/22 times. The DGA and Oscar have matched 15/22 times. And the SAG and Oscar have matched 12/22 times.
All told, that means the Globes has matched the Oscar for Best Picture less than the major guilds over time. When a film has swept awards season, it will win both the Globes and the PGA, but even then, that’s no guarantee as we saw with 1917 and La La Land in the era of the preferential ballot, and Brokeback Mountain and The Aviator in the years between 2000 and 2009.
So basically, friends, it’s a crapshoot as to whether this is going to be a sweeps year or a year where things are all mixed up. The swapping around of dates gives the SAG more power than it used to have in deciding what wins Best Picture. It should also be mentioned that the SAG was always the more progressive or “woke” of the big guilds, but now things seem to have been moving in that direction across the entire industry since 2020 (The Great Awokening). Since 2019, all but one Best Picture (Nomadland) won the SAG ensemble first:
Everything Everywhere All at Once
CODA
Parasite
But the Globes now aren’t what they used to be. It was around 90 members for decades. Now, they have 300 members from all over the world. I’m not sure what that ultimately means or how the consensus will go, but it will be interesting to see.
Best Actor
The acting categories tend to follow a similar pattern to Best Picture, or at least they did until 2020. Then things began to shift as various voting bodies re-arranged their members. Again, looking back just to the year 2000 up until now:
By my count, Best Actor — Drama matched the Globes 14/22 times; Best Actor — Musical/Comedy matched 3/22 times. So the Globes matched the Oscars in 17/22 years.
Best Actress
Best Actress — Drama matched 13/22 times; Best Actress — Musical/Comedy matched 5/22 times. In total, the Globes Best Actress winners won the Oscar in 18/22 years.
Best Supporting Actor
The Globes and Oscar winners in Supporting Actor have matched 18/22 times, a shocking number.
Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actress has matched 14/22 times.
Best Director
Best Director has matched 12/22 times.
Screenplay
I believe the number is 14/22 but I may have missed a title or two on that one.
The Golden Globes used to be more influential, it should go without saying, long ago before the APOCALYPSE that wiped them off the map. At the moment, they’re just getting themselves back to the place where people will show up, where people will watch and get things kind of back to “normal.”
The “consensus” for Globes (and probably Oscars) this tear among the predicting pundits, give or take, is this:
Best Picture (Drama) — Oppenheimer
Best Director — Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer
Best Actor (Drama) — Bradley Cooper, Maestro
Best Actress (Drama) — Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Picture (Comedy) — Poor Things or Barbie
Best Actor (Comedy) — Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
Best Actress (Comedy) — Emma Stone, Poor Things
Supporting Actress — Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers
Supporting Actor — varies, but Robert Downey, Jr. seems to be the leader of the pack.
Screenplay — all over the map, with Oppenheimer, Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon predicted
You can find the rest here at Gold Derby.
You can also enter our contest to predict the Golden Globes:
Thanks to Marshall for the contest and for help with the following chart. I could have made them for all of the categories, but I think Best Picture is good for now.
We will be posting our predictions on Friday.
