How was the show? It was a lot better than I expected. I thought it would be an awkward hostage video but they came out confidently and kept it light, without any politics (thank you Jebus). The host was … not funny, but I don’t really want to go on and on about that. I’m just grateful it looked like the Golden Globes used to look. And, honestly, the awards race needs one fun show that doesn’t take itself too seriously. And they definitely delivered.
A miracle happened last night. Oppenheimer took five Golden Globes. Now you might say, Oh, that was an easy call. Everyone was predicting Oppenheimer. Yes, they were. But it’s still surprising that a newly expanded voting body that picked Anatomy of a Fall in Screenplay and Poor Things for Musical/Comedy, besting The Holdovers and Barbie, went so big for Oppenheimer.
This story is either going to turn out to be one with a happy ending or one with a tragic ending. Old timers like me know that the fate of a film that wins the Golden Globe for Picture and Director is almost always that it gets unseated when the big guilds take a crack at it.
https://youtu.be/0EyYNpU3rY4?si=bEOpZL202ZwI0u3h
In fact, a film can win everything — everything — and still be unseated at the last minute by the pesky preferential ballot. Most recently we have:
2019
1917 – Golden Globe for Picture and Director, PGA + DGA
And the Oscar went to Parasite.
2016
La La Land – Golden Globe for Picture and Director (and a record haul of 7 Globes altogether), PGA+DGA
And the Oscar went to Moonlight.
Prior to those minor catastrophes, what we used to see was a big Globe win for Picture and Director, only to be unseated by the big guilds. As in:
2009
Globes went to Avatar.
PGA + DGA + Oscar went to The Hurt Locker.
2010
Globes went to The Social Network
PGA + DGA + SAG + Oscar went to The King’s Speech.
2014
Globes went to Boyhood.
PGA + DGA + SAG + Oscar went to Birdman.
Have any films ever won the Globes for Picture and Director and gone on to win Picture and Director at the Oscars in the era of the preferential ballot?
Only once:
2020
Chloe Zhao for Nomadland.
As you can see, Oppenheimer is still, believe it or not, stats-wise, the underdog. It has to win the PGA and the SAG ensemble to be an unstoppable frontrunner.
Why these stats might not matter
- For the first time in their history, the Golden Globes have expanded their membership from 90 to 300. They invited new members from all over the world, which means they are likely to have the same international influence and attitudes as the new members of the Academy. Maybe. Maybe not.
- Hollywood is hanging by a thread. You’d have to be the most isolated elitist in your own bubble not to have noticed the near-collapse of the box office. Nolan stands on the side of MOVIES in movie theaters, filming on film. His canon of experimental art films on a grand scale is unsurpassed. For Oppenheimer to have made a billion worldwide is astonishing. For the Oscars and Hollywood to ignore that would be malpractice on every level. Do they care? Let them eat cake.
What are Oppenheimer’s biggest challengers? It’s hard to say. Going by last night, and Film Twitter’s ongoing passion for Poor Things, you’d think it comes down to these two films. And maybe it does. It’s the kind of thing we won’t know until the big guilds announce their winners. Here are the membership counts as of now:
Approx:
Globes — 300
Critics Choice — 600
BAFTA — 8,000
PGA — 8,000 — preferential ballot
Oscars — 9,000 — preferential ballot
DGA — 19,500
SAG/AFTRA — 160,000
These are very big numbers. We use the PGA + SAG Ensemble as a reliable combo because one uses the preferential ballot with 10 and one uses the non-preferential with 5. Here are the movies that have won BP with both those precursors in the era of the preferential ballot:
2010 — The King’s Speech
2012 — Argo
2014 — Birdman
That isn’t a lot, granted. But no movie has won both PGA and SAG Ensemble and lost the Oscar in the era of the preferential ballot, and I think only one movie has won both and lost the Oscar in all of their shared history (Apollo 13).
That said, we must deal with the new religion that has overtaken Hollywood. As I warned people on Twitter last night, hold onto yourselves, as Zelda Rubinstein ominously advised. The new religion says that “white guy movies” can’t and shouldn’t win. Oppenheimer is, without a doubt, a “white guy movie” that might just save Hollywood.
What is a way around that? How can they both save Hollywood and satisfy the fundamentalists in the Woketopia? Barbie is one path. Intersectional, directed and produced by women, Barbie could be their way out. I can’t make an argument against Barbie winning.
It is not my intention to trash other movies that threaten Oppenheimer. Oscar voters often rebel when they’re told they have to vote for something. We’re not talking about the most humble of humans here when we refer to industry types, especially actors. They tend to be arrogant and entitled. Why wouldn’t they be? They are at the top of the heap. They have always cared less about what Frank Capra called the people who “do the living, working and dying in this town.”
But it’s one thing to trip the light fantastic when the box office is thriving, when the country isn’t so divided, when the whole world feels despair. And it’s a whole different thing to turn their noses up at a successful movie, a brilliant movie — a masterpiece, like Oppenheimer right NOW.
Can they? Of course. Take it from me. My heartbreak has been unending. For years. I think two times the best movie won. Much of the time, the best movie isn’t even nominated. When the fate of “Best Picture” rests mostly on the collective intelligence of actors, well, you know you’re going to be banging your head against the wall for the foreseeable future. No offense, I was an actor once.
What else is there to report about the Globes? Let’s go through the major categories.
Best Actress
Lily Gladstone who brought down the house last night with her win and her speech vs. Emma Stone who arguably gave the best performance of the year. Hard to choose between those two, but Stone has already won an Oscar so it’s not exactly a sense of urgency to give her another one so soon. It’s a little like last year’s Cate Blanchett vs. Michelle Yeoh.
Best Actor
Cillian Murphy in Oppenheimer vs. Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers. This is a true Sophie’s Choice for me because I loved both performances and both movies. I can’t choose, don’t make me. Both actors, I think, have a lot of life left in them and many more great performances to come. I probably lean in Giamatti’s direction because he’s been around so long and has yet to get the recognition he deserves. But either win would be giving it to an actor who deserves it.
Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor
Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers and Robert Downey, Jr. are two of the best performances in two of the best films of the year, and I hope both go all the way.
Best Director
Even if Oppenheimer is unseated in the final act by the actors — entirely possible — hopefully, at least, Nolan will collect a well-deserved statuette for Oppenheimer. As with Best Picture, the threat is probably Yorgos Lanthimos or Greta Gerwig. We’re still talking about a voter pool of thousands, not hundreds, so we don’t know how this will wind up.
Screenplay
My guess is that Oppenheimer and Poor Things split the vote for Screenplay at the Globes last night, allowing Anatomy of a Fall to win. It will go up against other original screenplays at the Oscars, most notably the far superior The Holdovers by David Hemingson, which is essentially a novel in screenplay form. Anatomy could also be described that way. My problem with it is that it’s a witch burning set up as a murder mystery (which it is not). Is it a good movie? Yes, it is. Is it better than The Holdovers? No, but it’s not up to me. Past Lives is another threat in Original, and May December.
Bring Back Ricky Gervais
The biggest surprise of the night was, for me, Ricky Gervais’s win. This is a touchy subject for us here at AwardsDaily, but by now, many of our readers who are angry at me anyway have fled the site for safer pastures. And I’m okay with that. Do whatever you feel is best for you.
I will never — ever ever — stand on the side of punishing people for what they think or what they say. Never. I think firing someone from a job for saying something stupid, like “Israel is committing genocide in Gaza” is fair. But deciding that Ricky Gervais or Dave Chappelle must be shunned because they make jokes that people find offensive — or “put people’s lives in danger,” as they’re fond of saying — sorry, but I don’t go along with that. I’ll take any consequences that arise. In this case, that has meant losing some readers and people who used to frequent the comment section here.
I’m a little tired of cowardice. I think it’s destroyed so much of what makes Hollywood an essential component in our lives. I think more people should get over themselves and be more accepting of differences of opinion — across the board. If we can’t be free in the mind, movies will never be great.
Oppenheimer is about a time in American history very much like this one. Some people will never make that connection because they still see themselves as the good guys fighting on the right side. Back then, like now, there was an alliance of government and Hollywood fighting their invisible war against Communism. It’s easy to look back and see how that was wrong. It’s harder for people to draw the connection to now, with offensive thought-crimes being a kind of “Communism.” The idea that there are –ists and phones everywhere is leading a kind of new Red Scare. At any rate, you never want to be on that side, I promise you. Anyone who writes honestly about the time we’re living through will understand that.
Ricky Gervais is funny. Dave Chappelle is funny. Do I agree with everything they say in their stand-up routine? No. Do I laugh at every joke? No. But humor is designed to be subversive and disarming. One of the reasons I believe we’re all going collectively insane is the absence of humor in our lives. All we get are really lame jokes that have to find any target that is inoffensive. And that ain’t gonna cut it. As Gervais says, they’re just jokes.
So bravo to the HFPA for awarding Gervais. That took courage and I’m impressed.
And if people want to shame me or shun me for what I think? Then I can live with that. I HAVE to live with that because the alternative is unbearable.
Onward to the next…
