2024 Final Oscar Predictions — When Barbie Met Oppie

We’ve made it through a very strange year. It was the best of times with Barbenheimer. It was the worst of times with the strike by the actors and the writers that brought a struggling industry to its knees. It was a time of extreme political division where one movie, The Sound of Freedom, rose up from a grassroots movement on the Right to land in the top ten highest-grossing pictures of the year, besting both Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning and Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.

Yet Sound of Freedom, like the half of the country the industry has abandoned, was treated like a foreign invader, with all the drone bees attacking it and purging it from polite society. It was a harbinger of things to come, if you wanted to pay attention to that or not. The Oscars, and whatever existing bubble enclosing the ruling class, remain — at least for now.

Yet Barbenheimer was a bright spot, and it is Barbenheimer that will probably drive Oscar ratings to a seven-year high, I predict. I say that because the Oscars and Hollywood overall took a hit when Trump won. They aligned themselves with the “resistance,” a phony mobilization movement that pretended that the rebel army was somehow a liberating force when, in fact, they (we) were always the Empire.

The result was a steady decline starting right around the time that the Oscars and the Left overall began to lose their minds, awash in mass hysteria after the 2016 election. Slowly but surely, the two Americas would pull apart in dramatic ways, and that would, in turn, harm the ratings. It also had to do with the incessant naval gazing by the world’s richest and most powerful people whining about politics at every award show. We remember. We were there.

It started to drop around the time things began to intensify around “wokeness,” as the Oscars did become much more of a bubble with the help of people like me. I predict that their ratings land up around 29 million this year, but I would love it if they went up to 43.

Barbenheimer Rising

I’m going out on a limb and predicting Barbie to win Adapted Screenplay to honor the Barbenheimer phenom. American Fiction is your more likely winner, and if you want to get a high score, you should go with that one. Taking a risk with a long shot sometimes pays off, but sometimes it doesn’t. In this case, it might be the best time to award Greta Gerwig an Oscar for being not only the first woman to have three Best Picture nominees, but the first filmmaker in Oscar history to have three consecutive Best Picture nominations for her first three (solo) directed films. I don’t go along with patting women on the head just for being women, but it’s a record worth mentioning. Is she going to be nominated for a third time in Screenplay and not win? I mean, probably — yes. But I’m taking the chance that since she was left off Director, they will say: Barbenheimer, let’s do this.

As for Oppie: well, it’s a sweep. It’s just a matter of how many awards it will take. This is the first time we have had a year like this, where the groups have been this aligned behind ten movies. We’ve never had a 10/10 match-up with the Producers Guild. We’ve never had a movie win across the board as Oppenheimer has in some time either, not since Slumdog Millionaire.

The only movie that comes remotely close in the current expanded era is La La Land, which didn’t even have a SAG ensemble nomination (let alone win it) and it didn’t win Best Picture. But that looked a bit like Oppie does now. This kind of thing has never happened in the post-2009 Oscar world. We’re living through a transformation out of the Great Awakening and back toward: please don’t let our industry die.

Before I dive into final predictions, a few things to consider. Let’s look at how things balanced out with wins in the era of the expanded ballot. But keep in mind the Academy had 10 Best Picture contenders from 2009-2010, and then later in 2021 up to now. Look at how many movies in the lineup won Oscars and how many went home empty handed.

So, in the years where there were a solid ten we had this many films going home empty handed:

2009, 2010 — 4/10
2021 — 4/10
2022 — 5/10

That seems to indicate more movies will go home empty-handed than, say, I am predicting. But keep in mind that precedents are easily broken with such a short history.

So here is one scenario, which looks like what I’m predicting now:

That would seem unusual given the history, but then again, there are plenty of years where only one movie went home empty-handed, or like in 2014, no movie did. But here is how it would look if we placed Emma Stone and American Fiction instead unless Killers of the Flower Moon wins a different award somewhere else.

Could Killers win Costumes? Yes, it could. Could it win, say, Production Design? Yes, it could. If voters really didn’t like Poor Things, then it might go home empty-handed, too.

You’ll have to decide which one looks more right to you. I have a hard time seeing Killers going home empty-handed, but look at last year: Banshees, Fabelmans, and TAR did not win any Oscars.

We’ll all be waiting to find out on Sunday!

We’ll be posting our Big Fat Predictions Short Soon, hopefully by today.

Here are my final predictions, which I might change.

Best Motion Picture of the Year

1. Oppenheimer 
2. The Holdovers
3. American Fiction
4. Poor Things
5. Barbie
6. Killers of the Flower Moon
7. Maestro
8. Anatomy of a Fall
9. The Zone of Interest
10. Past Lives

Best Actor

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers
3. Bradley Cooper, Maestro
4. Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction
5. Colman Domingo, Rustin

Best Actress

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Emma Stone, Poor Things
3. Annette Bening, Nyad
4. Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
5. Carey Mulligan, Maestro

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

1. Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”  
2. Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
3. Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction”
4. Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
5. Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers” 
2. Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
3. Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
4. America Ferrera, “Barbie”
5. Jodie Foster, “Nyad”

Achievement in Directing

1. “Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan  
2. “Anatomy of a Fall,” Justine Triet
3. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Martin Scorsese
4. “Poor Things,” Yorgos Lanthimos
5. “The Zone of Interest,” Jonathan Glazer

Adapted Screenplay

1. “Barbie,” Written by Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach
2. “American Fiction,” Written for the screen by Cord Jefferson
3. “Oppenheimer,” Written for the screen by Christopher Nolan
4. “Poor Things,” Screenplay by Tony McNamara
5. “The Zone of Interest,” Written by Jonathan Glazer

Original Screenplay

1. “Anatomy of a Fall,” Screenplay — Justine Triet and Arthur Harari
2. “The Holdovers,” Written by David Hemingson
3. “Maestro,” Written by Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer
4. “May December,” Screenplay by Samy Burch; Story by Samy Burch & Alex Mechanik
5. “Past Lives,” Written by Celine Song

Achievement in Production Design

1. “Poor Things”
2. “Barbie” 
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Killers of the Flower Moon”
5. “Napoleon”

Achievement in Sound

1. “Oppenheimer” 
2. “The Zone of Interest”
3. “The Creator” 
4. “Maestro”
5. “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”

Achievement in Visual Effects

1. “Godzilla Minus One”
2. “The Creator”  
3. “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
4. “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One”
5. “Napoleon”

Achievement in Film Editing

1. “Oppenheimer,” Jennifer Lame
2. “Poor Things,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
3. “Anatomy of a Fall,” Laurent Sénéchal
4. “The Holdovers,” Kevin Tent
5. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Thelma Schoonmaker

Achievement in Cinematography

1. “Oppenheimer,” Hoyte van Hoytema
2. “Poor Things,” Robbie Ryan
3. “El Conde,” Edward Lachman
4. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Rodrigo Prieto
5. “Maestro,” Matthew Libatique

Achievement in Costume Design

1. “Barbie,” Jacqueline Durran
2. “Poor Things,” Holly Waddington
3. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Jacqueline West
4. “Napoleon,” Janty Yates and Dave Crossman
5. “Oppenheimer,” Ellen Mirojnick

Best Documentary Feature Film

1. “20 Days in Mariupol”
2. “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
3. “The Eternal Memory”
4. “Four Daughters”
5. “To Kill a Tiger”

Best Documentary Short Film

1. “Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó”
2. “The Last Repair Shop”
3. “The ABCs of Book Banning” 
4. “The Barber of Little Rock”
5. “Island in Between”

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

1. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
2. “The Boy and the Heron”
3. “Elemental”
4. “Nimona”
5. “Robot Dreams”

Best International Feature Film of the Year

1. “The Zone of Interest,” United Kingdom
2. “Perfect Days,” Japan
3. “Society of the Snow,” Spain
4. “The Teachers’ Lounge,” Germany
5. “Io Capitano,” Italy

Achievement in Makeup and Hairstyling

1. “Maestro”
2. “Golda”
3. “Oppenheimer”
4. “Poor Things”
5. “Society of the Snow”

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Score)

1. “Oppenheimer,” Ludwig Göransson
2. “Killers of the Flower Moon,” Robbie Robertson
3. “Poor Things,” Jerskin Fendrix
4. “American Fiction,” Laura Karpman
5. “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” John Williams

Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures (Original Song)

1. “I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie”
   Music and Lyrics by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
2. “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie”
   Music and Lyrics by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
3. “The Fire Inside” from “Flamin’ Hot”
   Music and Lyrics by Diane Warren
4. “It Never Went Away” from “American Symphony”
   Music and Lyrics by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson
5. “Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People)” from “Killers of the Flower Moon”
   Music and Lyrics by Scott George

Best Animated Short Film

1. “WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko,” Dave Mullins and Brad Booker
2. “Letter to a Pig,” Tal Kantor and Amit R. Gicelter
3. “Ninety-Five Senses,” Jerusha Hess and Jared Hess
4. “Our Uniform,” Yegane Moghaddam
5. “Pachyderme,” Stéphanie Clément and Marc Rius

Best Live Action Short Film

1. “The After,” Misan Harriman and Nicky Bentham
2. “The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar,” Wes Anderson and Steven Rales
3. “Invincible,” Vincent René-Lortie and Samuel Caron
4. “Knight of Fortune,” Lasse Lyskjær Noer and Christian Norlyk
5. “Red, White and Blue,” Nazrin Choudhury and Sara McFarlane