2025 Oscar Predictions: Good As Gold’s Way Too Early Predictions for the 97th Academy Awards

“You see in this world there’s two kinds of people, my friend. Those with loaded guns, and those who dig. You dig.” – Blondie (The Good, the Bad and the Ugly)

Clint Eastwood’s memorable line from Sergio Leone’s Western masterpiece not only speaks to power dynamics but also invites metaphorical interpretation, resonating with broader themes beyond the film’s context. In matters of certain belief, approach, or ideology, a binary division often emerges: those who do and those who do not.

This dichotomy is particularly evident in the discourse surrounding early Oscar predictions. While some embrace it as an engaging exercise, others dismiss it as premature speculation.

I fall on the side of seeing it as harmless fun. For those who don’t, you might want to go clutch your pearls elsewhere.

Last year, my early Best Picture predictions looked like this:

Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
The Color Purple
Maestro
Poor Things
Dune: Part Two
Asteroid City
Next Goal Wins
Past Lives
Air

Five of these predictions ended up receiving Picture nominations, with Oppenheimer clinching the big prize on Oscar night. It was the second time since I have been doing this that my early prediction went wire-to-wire (12 Years a Slave was the other). I correctly anticipated Nolan’s victory in Director from the outset as well. While I’m sure many others shared this prediction, it’s not about boasting; rather, it just adds an extra layer of excitement to the prediction game.

So what factors should we consider when evaluating the race this early on? Last year, I highlighted three key components: synopsis, cast, and director pedigree. Of course, there are always surprises – films we’re unaware of that suddenly emerge, while others, like Dune Part Two last year, that get pushed to the following year. Predicting around these uncertainties can be tricky, so while lists like this offer insight, it’s wise to take them with a grain of salt; after all, it’s far from a perfect science.

At the forefront of my radar is Edward Berger’s Conclave (Focus Features), a dramatic thriller revolving around the election of a new Pope. Berger, known for directing my personal favorite film of 2022, All Quiet on the Western Front, has proven his ability to deliver a compelling work of art. The cast boasts a stellar lineup, including Ralph Fiennes (my initial pick for Lead Actor), Stanley Tucci, and John Lithgow portraying Cardinals, with Isabella Rossellini, another seasoned star, playing the lead Sister. Recall the last time we witnessed a fascinating, controversial drama centered on the Catholic church, it won Best Picture (Spotlight). Could lightning strike twice? (It would if some of you rapscallions ever entered a church)

Speaking of the aforementioned 12 Years a Slave, Steve McQueen’s Blitz (Apple Original Films) emerges as another potential awards contender. Blitz follows the stories of a group of Londoners during the events of the British capital bombing in World War II and stars Saoirse Ronan, Harris Dickinson, and Stephen Graham. It sounds like Blitz has the makings of a formidable contender to me.

Onto another highly anticipated entry: Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An American Saga (Warner Bros.). With its release split into two parts – expected June 28 and August 16, respectively – I’m curious to see how Warner Bros. will strategize their awards campaign. While I refrain from distinguishing between the two installments for now, I eagerly anticipate their combined impact. Personally, Costner’s presence in a Western always strikes a chord with me, making Horizon my most anticipated film of 2024. With its potential at the box office and Costner’s prowess in the genre, I look forward to the bountiful success it should have over the summer.

Let’s get to the list. You can find my updated predictions for Picture here. Director is updated as well. Acting soon.