The first year I began my website, Gladiator won Best Picture. I got it wrong and predicted Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to win. But that was not possible in the old days with the Old Academy. “Foreign language” films did not win and would not until 2019 when South Korea’s Parasite did. That marked the arrival of the New Academy, thousands of new voters from all over the world whose interests were not exactly rooted in preserving the American film industry.
Gladiator won Best Picture but Ridley Scott did not win Best Director. Any Oscar watcher worth his or her salt would, therefore, conclude that if Gladiator is back, maybe Ridley Scott finally has a chance to win. But as was pointed out to be by Clarence Moye, we now have three directors that might be up for Best Directors with sequels:
Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
Denis Villeneuve, Dune 2
Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie a Deux
Maybe it turns out that way, maybe it doesn’t. What I find a little fascinating is how the pundits aren’t circling these movies at all. Why? Because they know the New Academy doesn’t really care about pedigree or history. They are more like the Spirit Awards, the Gothams, Cannes and Sundance than they are about the big studios that used to rule the Oscars.
A strange transformation is afoot in this new era of movies and the Oscars. That is this: the director doesn’t seem to matter that much anymore. This is a tragic development for film, I think, but it’s undeniable with very few exceptions. Some directors are still prominent enough to catch the attention of moviegoers who will show up to see their work – like Christopher Nolan or Martin Scorsese or David Fincher. But for the most part, the era I lived through, where the directors were the most important factor in a film’s success, seems to be over.
We’re living through a major generational change, a “Fourth Turning” that will kill off everything that came before. The greatest directors from the 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s are on the wane. The new breed of directors tends to be more identity-focused. It’s more about who they are rather than what they put on screen. And in a way that’s not different from what happened when the new generation of movie rebels of the 1970s changed how we saw directors. They were breaking free from convention and redefining what movies would be. Now, we’re living through yet another generational change.
We can see how easily it seems for Hollywood and the Oscars to obliterate all memory of Woody Allen, for instance. Of the directors who have shaped the past 40 years of cinema, Woody Allen is right up there with Martin Scorsese, Francis Ford Coppola, Steven Spielberg, George Lucas, etc. He was the first in the later era to act, direct and write his own films, for instance. But more than that, his perspective on the world shaped whole generations of people. It seems odd that it’s been decided he should no longer be part of our culture.
Francis Ford Coppola made a movie called Megalopolis, which had odd and mixed results in Cannes. He funded the film with his own money, and it was an example of pure creative expression that seemed to be ruminating on what’s happening now. Call it Boomer’s Last Stand. If you’ve read The Fourth Turning, you’ll be able to recognize why the Boomer generation is reluctant to walk away and why they are fighting against the dying of the light. We’re living through a major changing of the guard. The Boomers are handing American culture over to the millennials (for better or worse).
With millennials as the dominant social group, we see our culture’s inevitable slide into Big Tech – streaming, smartphones, TikTok, Youtube, and the dreaded AI. That means whatever the next generation of directors will be — if such a thing even exists- will likely be some hybrid of human and artificial intelligence. I want to say that AI can’t write better than human beings but honestly, considering the kind of shit that passes for writing now – where there are so many rules imposed upon the writer to adhere to the guidelines of the Woketopians — AI can certainly do that and do so without any guilt or remorse.
Do I like all of this? Not really. But you can’t stop what’s coming. My advice to all humans — be exceptional now. Break the rules. Be daring. Prove that what you can do is better than what the robots can do. The best way to do that is to remember what makes a great movie – and usually, that’s a great director.
I was heartened to see Pixar allow Andrew Stanton — the dreaded white male! — return to direct the new Toy Story movie. It should not matter if they’re white or male or heterosexual or anything like that. Just remember: you’re already in a fight for the survival of humans as the dominant creators of art. That’s the war now. If you blink, you’re dead.
This is not the time to re-arrange the deck chairs on the Titanic. This is the time to peacock the best of the best. That’s how I see it.
There are two ways to talk about the Best Director race. One way is to talk about the Old Academy, what things were like for decades and decades before the Academy opened the floodgates and allowed any person to join the Academy, no matter their status, their credits or their loyalty to the American film industry. They were allowed in only to change the demographics of the Academy to avoid further condemnations by people like I used to be. SCOLDS.
The New Academy isn’t really into preserving American film icons. They’ll just as soon flick Francis Ford Coppola off their shoulder like a fly. Kevin Costner’s epic two-parter, Horizon, was treated like it meant nothing when it showed in Cannes. Did they care that he was Kevin Costner? No, he’s a white “cis-normative, heterosexual male,” which makes him disposable. If he really wanted to make money on Horizon, he’d do interviews on the Right leaning shows and interviews in outlets. He’d talk to Tucker Carlson, the Daily Wire, Fox News, Megyn Kelly – he’d open up the door to the people who would actually want to see the movie. But I’m guessing he won’t do that because he’s still chasing the old way things used to be done in Hollywood – via the prestige channels.
I’m not prepared to give up on Francis Ford Coppola or Kevin Costner, just as I’m not ready to give up on Steven Spielberg or Martin Scorsese. The main reason is that I don’t want to give up on what my friend David Carr called MOVIE movies. I like ’em big. I like ’em expensive. I like ’em epic. It doesn’t seem like the next generation is too into that. They seem more interested in exploring various identities — maybe young people like that? I find it too insular, too specific, not something that makes me feel like, you know, this:
When I scroll through the predictions for the Best Director race now, it doesn’t exactly make me feel like Nicole Kidman. It doesn’t give me much more than I would get watching your average great show on streaming. That’s because we don’t look at Best Director as we used to. We look at it more now, with last year being a notable exception, as a kind of consolation prize, a way to move the needle in the direction of social justice.
We think about filling the slots in a way that will make everything seem more fair and equitable. A person of color? A woman? Otherwise, there will be hell to pay in the endless array of op-eds that will hit the internet and heap buckets of shit on the heads of the Academy voters like they need any more of that.
Let’s look at the “Oscar Expert” with Brother Bro’s Best Director predictions video.
The only name on their list right now that makes me even remotely intrigued is Robert Zemeckis at #6. They could be right that this is how it’s going to end up, but I look at that, and I think Gothams or the Spirit Awards. I don’t think: Oscars. Maybe it doesn’t matter anymore. Maybe that ship has sailed. Let’s look at what Erik Anderson is predicting:
BEST DIRECTOR
- Edward Berger – Conclave (Focus Features)
- Sean Baker – Anora (NEON)
- Denis Villeneuve – Dune Part II (Warner Bros)
- Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
- Steve McQueen – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
- Luca Guadagnino – Queer (TBA)
- RaMell Ross – The Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)
- Ridley Scott – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)
- Todd Phillips – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros)
- John Crowley – We Live in Time (A24)
How about we do it like this:
- Todd Phillips – Joker: Folie A Deux
- Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
- Denis Villeneuve, Dune II
- Kevin Costner, Horizon I and II
- Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
Okay so probably not. But maybe:
- Todd Phillips – Joker: Folie A Deux
- Ridley Scott, Gladiator II
- Denis Villenueve, Dune II
- Sean Baker, Anora
- Robert Zemeckis, Here
Beyond that, these names will continue to be on my radar:
Kevin Costner, Horizon I and II
Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
Luca Guadagnino, Queer
Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
Doug Limon, The Instigators
Lee Daniels, The Deliverance
Sean McNamara, Reagan
Marc Forster, White Bird
Mike Leigh, Hard Truths
RaMell Ross, The Nickel Boys
Edward Berger, Conclave
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
Marielle Heller, Nightbitch
Uberto Pasolini, The Return
It does feel like a light list. But maybe there are other movies soon to be released not mentioned anywhere yet. Here’s hoping. I guess we’ll have to wait and see.