2025 Oscar Predictions: The Race Heats Up (sort of)

The entry of James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown has given the Oscar race some new life. We’ll take what we can get.  It was looking a little … spare for a minute there. The festivals will bring in even more new titles that we need to learn about. I’m especially interested in Ron Howard’s Eden, which will play Toronto, and not Venice as previously thought.    

It’s also been rumored that Jason Reitman’s SNL 1975 might hit the festival circuit before it opens in October. It chronicles the early foundational days of the once-great late-night destination. Like A Complete Unknown, SNL 1975 brings us back to an era where artists, comedians, writers and journalists were bursting forth out of the traditionalist and oppressive mood of the 1950s. The Boomers were responsible for the counterculture revolution, but now that generation is on its way out.

That’s exactly how it was for Bob Dylan when he “went electric” in 1965. He came into the world as Robert Zimmerman, a Jew living in Hibbing, Minnesota. He then began crafting a persona — Bob Dylan, the folk singer. He followed in the tradition of Woodie Guthrie and some of the old Blues singers that inspired him back then.  A Complete Unknown catches up with Dylan when he hits New York City’s Greenwich Village as folkie. It follows his relationship with Suze Rotolo (Elle Fanning), or perhaps a composite of women from his early days.

Here is the first known footage of the young Bob, in 1961.

Mangold’s film appears to involve what happened to Dylan when he made the leap to rock n’ roll from folk music — or in Dylan parlance, when he “went electric.” At first, the audience booed him. They were not happy that he changed. But of course, to know Bob Dylan’s work is to understand that he was never just one thing or one person. He was a chameleon, restless in both his identity and the kind of music he played — country, Christian Rock, etc. 

Dylan dated Suze Rotolo from 1961 through 1964. When they met, she was 17, he was 20. She was political, he was not. It was an exciting time in Greenwich Village — a hotbed of youthful rebellion that sparked great music, great writing, great comedy, great art.

But the thing to know about this particular story is that the counterculture revolution would not wait for anyone. It was going to power through and explode outward. By the end of it, we would see some of the greatest films, songs, books, and journalism in modern history. When Bob Dylan “went electric,” the result was one of the greatest rock songs ever:

Saturday Night Live launched ten years after Dylan played Newport in 1965. We will likely see the same kind of spirit with the counterculture, by then in full swing, and mostly institutionalized. 1975 was also the year Jaws hit theaters, forever changing Hollywood. Five years later it would be 1980 and Ronald Reagan would be president. The culture and politics and the silent majority went another way.

Here is the first SNL sketch ever – why is it funny, who knows it just is:

It should not be that surprising that we’re seeing Boomer nostalgia around us now, and that politics and culture are so closely aligned. This is the last gasp of their influence. They’re on their way out now. Culture feels as oppressive and stagnant, at least to me, as it probably did before the 1960s. I can feel the counterculture when I scroll TikTok or YouTube, or I read outsider journalism. I don’t see it in the dominant culture, not yet. That will probably take a while.

People in their 20s are going to live through the next big change in culture and that will be exciting to see. I’ll probably be writing about it as long as I am able because there is nothing more fascinating to me than the patterns of history and how they repeat.

What drives the counterculture is what drives art. When there is a climate of deception, as there is now, art will be one of the rare things that can counter it. Saturday Night Live was great because they could speak truth to power, something they can’t do now. None of the recent comedians are anything other than magic mirrors for the Democrats and the Left. It’s just not interesting or funny. But scroll TikTok and you’ll see funny people who aren’t afraid to tell the truth because they have nothing to lose, or as Dylan would say, “when you ain’t got nothing, you got nothing to lose.”

There is no getting around what’s about to happen to us. We’re in the middle of a Civil War, even if it’s mostly bloodless. We’re not heading into an election so much as a battle for the future. Hollywood has, in my view, closed itself off from a segment of American culture. They — we — have built a 1984-like bubble. It mostly virtual because the Left colonized the internet. It’s also global, not confined to the United States. It is about ideological alignment, not geographical. I do not know how Orwell got it so right but he did.

Trump is the Goldstein-like figure. In the book, Goldstein may not even exist, but he exists as the ultimate evil inside Oceana. That’s what the two minutes of hate are about. They use Goldstein to keep their citizens engaged and enraged. Real life exists outside among the Proles. But inside, one is to be correct at all times. Language is manipulated and erased. So is history. Basic truths are distorted and all that matters if that you love Big Brother.

All you really need to know about the counterculture is this: it must happen because people get sick of not hearing, not writing, not speaking the truth. That’s what it is. They seek it out because we all need it.

So what do I mean by all of this? The Oscars exist inside Oceana. We’ll be in the new counterculture revolution when they no longer do. We’re not there yet.  Even if the Democrats somehow win in 2024 — they might — that won’t stop the collapse of what they’ve built. It can’t survive if 75% of the people no longer care to consume their content. Also, we’re just about at the point where it’s no longer cool to be a liberal, something I never thought I’d see in my lifetime. Trump is becoming the cooler side, whether anyone wants to admit it or not. That is how you know we’re on the brink of another counterculture.

This year’s Oscars, however, will probably reflect the current mood INSIDE, as opposed to outside.  They will take a side against Trump and the rest of America because by now, the Oscars are Hollywood and Hollywood is the Kamala Harris campaign. They will take a side and it will further alienate them from the rest of the public because that’s what happened in 2016 and it’s been a long slow slide since then.

I see the Oscars as very much separate from the real world now. When I predict them, I must speak that language because there isn’t any alternatives at the moment. Dennis Quaid will be playing Ronald Reagan in a movie coming out in August. That will not be considered for the Oscars, no matter how good he is.  These are two separate realities, two separate Americas. Make of that what you will.

Finally, Erik Anderson has posted his predictions for July — hot off the presses today. Let’s see what he has for Best Picture.

BEST PICTURE

1. Conclave (Focus Features) – 11/8
2. Anora (NEON) – 10/18
3. Emilia Pérez (Netflix) – date TBA
4. Blitz (Apple Original Films) – 11/22
5. Dune Part II (Warner Bros) – 3/1
6. Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM) – 10/25
7. A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures) – December
8. Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures) – 11/22
9. Sing Sing (A24) – 7/12
10. Queer (TBA) – date TBA

I can’t really argue with his list. I think it’s fairly solid. Let’s just look at how it might go in terms of acting nominations. He’s missing a big one, though, with Joaquin and Lady Gaga in Joker: Folie à Deux, IMO.

Conclave — lead actor, supporting actor and actress
Anora — lead actress 
Emilia Perez – lead actress, maybe supporting
Blitz — lead actress (at least)
Dune Part II (probably no acting but if there is one, Austin Butler, I would think)
Nickel Boys — probably at least one acting nom. 
A Complete Unknown — very likely lead actor, supporting actress, possibly supporting actor depending on Edward Norton. 
Gladiator II – Lead actor, at least one supporting actor, maybe actress
Sing Sing – Lead Actor, probably supporting
Queer — Lead Actor, maybe supporting

That gives us five Lead Actor nominations and three Lead Actress nominations.

But if you look a little more broadly as these choices, we can see that nearly all of them are identity-based except: Conclave, Dune Part II, A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II. Blitz would be among those but, according to the synopsis, it’s about multi-cultural London, a side we don’t often see in WWII movies. If we’re thinking about the Oscars in January, when a new president in sworn in, we have to wonder how that is going to influence these choices. It will make an impact in one direction or another, that’s for sure. But how to predict that if we do not know who is going to win?

Here are Erik’s “next up” picks:

Next up: Challengers (Amazon MGM) – 4/26, The End (NEON) – date TBA, Hard Truths (Bleecker Street) – 10/18, Hedda (Amazon MGM) – date TBA, Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros) – 10/4, Juror #2 (Warner Bros) – date TBA, Kinds of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures) – 6/28, Maria (TBA) – date TBA, Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures) – 12/6, The Piano Lesson (Netflix) – date TBA, A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures) – 10/18, The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics) – date TBA, We Live in Time (A24) – 10/11, Wicked Part I (Universal Pictures) – 11/22

Then for director he has:

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Edward Berger – Conclave (Focus Features)
2. Sean Baker – Anora (NEON)
3. Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez (Netflix)
4. Steve McQueen – Blitz (Apple Original Films)
5. Denis Villeneuve – Dune Part II (Warner Bros)
6. James Mangold – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures)
7. RaMell Ross – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM)
8. Ridley Scott – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)
9. Luca Guadagnino – Queer (TBA)
10. Payal Kapadia – All We Imagine as Light (Janus/Sideshow)

And for Next Up:

Next up: Luca Guadagnino – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Walter Salles – I’m Still Here (Sony Pictures Classics), Todd Phillips – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Yorgos Lanthimos – Kind of Kindness (Searchlight Pictures), Pablo Larraín – Maria (TBA), Marielle Heller – Nightbitch (Searchlight Pictures), Malcolm Washington – The Piano Lesson (Netflix), Pedro Almodóvar – The Room Next Door (Sony Pictures Classics), Mohammad Rasoulof – The Seed and the Fig (NEON), Greg Kwedar – Sing Sing (A24), Joshua Oppenheimer – The End (NEON), John Crowley – We Live in Time (A24)

Here are my predictions, though I must stipulate that Erik is better at predicting this far out than I am. So take this with a HUGE grain of salt. I’m basing mine on what I think tickles the edges of the counterculture.

Here are Erik’s predictions from last year on July 28th:

And for Best Picture:

1. Oppenheimer (Universal Pictures)
2. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) – Cannes
3. The Color Purple (Warner Bros)
4. The Zone of Interest (A24) – Cannes, Telluride, TIFF
5. Maestro (Netflix) – Venice
6. Barbie (Warner Bros)
7. The Holdovers (Focus Features) – Telluride, TIFF
8. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON) – Cannes, Telluride, TIFF
9. Past Lives (A24) – Sundance, Berlin
10. Saltburn (Amazon Studios) – Telluride

I mean, come on, he only missed TWO. WTF.

Here are mine:

Best Picture
Oppenheimer
Killers of the Flower Moon
Barbie
The Killer
The Holdovers
Poor Things
Past Lives
The Color Purple
Next Goal Wins
Napoleon

I cringe with embarrassment. I missed four.

Here are my full predictions for the season ahead, for what they’re worth. Memo to future me: how did the whole election thing turn out?

Best Picture
Conclave
A Complete Unknown
Joker: Folie à Deux
SNL 1975
Gladiator II
Anora
Emilia Perez
The Nickel Boys
Dune Part II
Sing Sing
Alt. Blitz

The maybes: Inside Out 2, Here, Eden, Wicked Part 1, Queer, A Real Pain

Director
Edward Berger, Conclave
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Todd Phillips, Joker Folie a Deux
Sean Baker, Anora
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

Alts Jason Reitman SNL 1975, Luca Guadagnino, Queer, RaMelle Ross, The Nickel Boys, Ridley Scott, Gladiator II, Steve McQueen, Blitz

Actress
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Amy Adams, Night Bitch
Mikey Madison, Anora
Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
June Squibb, Thelma

Alts Ana DeArmas, Eden.

Actor
Coleman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys

Supporting Actress
Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux (unless lead)
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Paul Raci, Sing Sing

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
SNL 1975
Nickel Boys
A Complete Unknown
Inside Out 2

Original Screenplay
Anora
Blitz
Hard Truths
Emilia Perez
A Real Pain

That’s all I got for you — have a great weekend.