2025 Oscar Predictions – What Happens Now Matters Most

The trailer for Joker: Folie à Deux has just been announced and I have to say, I’m looking forward to this one more and more. The reason is that I rewatched Martin Scorsese’s Taxi Driver last night for a piece I’m working on and I just fell in love with it all over again. Movies will never be that great, never. It isn’t a generational thing. I was only a child when it came out. It is objectively great. Every single thing about it. The screenplay, the acting, the directing, the subject matter. It is an A+.

But I also thought about Joker and how 2019 might not have been the right time for that movie. It was the year before the Great Awokening. But now? I think it could cut through the bullshit like a hot knife cutting through butter. Here is the latest trailer:

Lady Gaga is apparently campaigning in supporting, like Heath Ledger in the Dark Knight, and I suspect she has a really good chance in that category. This film is, to me, among the most highly anticipated and really does stand out among the offerings, at least so far.

It’s a good time to assess the main film festivals now that Venice and Toronto have been announced. Others impact the race, like New York and AFI, but Venice/Telluride/Toronto are traditionally the biggest.

First, let’s start with what’s already part of “the discourse.” <—if you think it matters or not. It does and it doesn’t. It wouldn’t have been possible if films were stronger coming out of Hollywood and if people still watched those films, and we had a real film industry for film awards. We don’t. We have a very insular, very niche – if you know you know — kind of thing. That means “the discourse” does matter if you are predicting how the Oscars will turn out.

So far, we have:

Sundance
In A Real Pain, Jesse Eisenberg stars and wrote and directed it, co-starring Kieran Culkin. Some have described it as “Sideways but at concentration camps.”

Cannes
Anora – Palm d’or winner by Sean Baker who finally has a real Oscar contender on his hands. Hopefully the dog and pony show won’t destroy his love of making movies.
Emelia Perez – potentially first transgender actress to compete, possibly win. Lively musical.
The Substance – hard core “body horror” with Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley

Now, Michael Patterson is our go-to guy for Telluride predictions as to what might play there. Here is what he has sussed out about Telluride this year:

Based on premiere designations with the big announcement yesterday of Galas and Special Presentations, I believe we conclude that these films will be screening at TFF #51:
Anora
Conclave – Edward Berger movie that looks really good. 
Emilia Perez
The End – apocalyptic musical directed by Joshua Oppenheimer, starring Tilda Swinton
The Piano Lesson – “Set in 1936 Pittsburgh during the aftermath of the Great Depression, The Piano Lessonfollows the lives of the Charles family in the Doaker Charles household and an heirloom, the family piano, which documents the family history through carvings made by their enslaved ancestor.” Directed by Denzel Washington’s son, Malcom and starring his other son, John David. Denzel produces.
All We Imagine as Light – “The two embark on a road trip to a beach town where “the mystical forest becomes a space for their dreams to manifest,” directed by Payal Kapadia.”
Misrecordia – thriller from France, directed by Alain Guiraudie.
Better Man – Australian bio-musical about Robbie Williams.
Don’t Let’s Go to the Dog’s Tonight– “In this adaptation of Alexandra Fuller’s memoir, actor-director Embeth Davitz explores the end of the tenuous truce between white landowners and Black farm workers in the lead-up to the 1980 election in Rhodesia (now Zimbabwe).”
Piece by Piece – Animated Documentary by Morgan Neville, in his animated feature debut. It follows the life and career of American musician Pharrell Williams.
The Friend – written and directed by Scott McGehee and David Siegel, stars Naomi Watts and Bill Murray and is about a great dane. I am not sure I can actually watch this one.

Patterson says these films will NOT be at Telluride:

Bird*
Oh, Canada
Hard Truths
I’m Still Here

About Venice, Patterson says this:
VENICE

As always with Venice, the inclusion of a film among their announced titles doesn’t guarantee a Telluride play but also doesn’t preclude one. So Venice titles listed here are films that I think have a shot at playing both fests.  

The Room Next Door/Almodovar
Queer/Guadagnino
Maria/Larrain
Babygirl/Reijn
Harvest/Tsangari
Allegorie Citadine/Rohrwacher and JR
Separated/Morris
One on One: John and Yoko/Macdonald and Rice-Edwards

I personally think Maria might have a shot since Larrain brought Spencer there, and it worked out for Kristen Stewart. But taking a film to Telluride can be hit and miss, depending on what the critics do with it. They can make or break it, and if it bombs out there, it may never recover. Sadly.