Oscar Predictions 2025: Good As Gold’s Preview of the Venice, Telluride, and Toronto Film Festivals

Plus - Oscar predictions in 20 Categories and a July Recap including Horizon, Longlegs, and Deadpool & Wolverine

July 29, 2024

Things are about to get real.

Many Oscar pundits post our initial predictions in March/April. It might seem absurdly early – and maybe even a tad problematic for smaller films hoping to make a dent in the race – but it is also a cathartic way to release ties from the prior awards season, which for many of us, goes on for nearly a year.

At that time our speculations are mostly based on cast, director, and synopsis. We rarely have a trailer for what we are predicting, and, in most cases, we don’t even have any official images for the films we are forecasting. It’s meant to be fun and not taken too seriously. A primer, if you will, for things to come to keep people excited about during the off-season.

But we are now on the back nine of summer. Around this time, things start really lining up. Films have premiered at Cannes, we have started getting first looks at contenders through trailers or pictures, and rosters are starting to line up for Venice and Toronto. Telluride will join the trio starting the end of next month, and before you know it, there will be another consensus ten.

Let’s breakdown what has happened since my initial predictions in March.

77^th Cannes Film Festival

For the past five years, Cannes has established quite a track record with launching Oscar contenders. This year, the main players out of Cannes are Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez, Mohammad Rasoulof’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Payal Kapadia’s Grand Prix-winning All We Imagine as Light, and Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or-winning Anora.

Since 2019, the only Palme d’Or-winner to miss an Oscar nomination for Best Picture was Titane (2021). In that time, Anatomy of a Fall and Triangle of Sadness were nominated and Parasite won. In 2018, Shoplifters won the Palme and a nomination for Foreign Language Film (now rebranded International Film) came after. Bodes pretty well for Anora.

81st Venice Film Festival Lineup

Tim Burton’s Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice will open Venice. Other films to make their World Premiere on the Lido include Todd Phillips’ Joker: Folie à Deux (the first film won the Golden Lion), Pablo Larraín’s Maria (Jackie and Spencer both played Venice), Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist, and Luca Guadagnino’s Queer. The outstanding lineup will also include Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door and Jon Watts’ Wolfs.

49th Toronto Film Festival Lineup

TIFF will open with David Gordon Green’s Nutcrackers and close with Rebel Wilson’s directorial debut, The Deb. In between, Amy Adams will receive a tribute attached to the World Premiere of Marielle Heller’s Nightbitch. Other World Premieres include Animated Feature contender The Wild Robot, John Crowley’s We Live in Time, starring Andrew Garfield and Florence Pugh, Rachel Morrison’s The Fire Inside, and Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. Films slated to make their International Premiere, and thus likely play at Telluride, include Edward Berger’s Conclave, Morgan Neville’s Lego documentary, Piece by Piece, and Malcolm Washington’s The Piano Lesson. Cannes’ films Anora and Emilia Perez are listed as Canadian Premieres, which also means a stop at Telluride is likely. Bird, on the other hand, is listed as a North American Premiere.

51st Telluride Film Festival Hints

As mentioned, the designation for Conclave at TIFF (and omission at Venice) means it will make its World Premiere at Telluride. More about that film in the Trailers section below. Joshua Oppenheimer’s The End is listed as a Canadian Premiere at TIFF, so it will likely join the International and Canadian Premiering films listed above in Telluride. Nickel Boys is playing at the New York Film Festival, and since there is no World Premiere designation, we can likely expect that as well.

This what I expect to play there:

Conclave
Anora
Emilia Perez
The Piano Lesson
Nickel Boys

Here are a few more titles that could very well play at Telluride:

Maria
The End
The Apprentice
SNL 1975
Babygirl

Could be another great Telluride lineup this year! Michael Patterson has a nice preview for what he feels is most likely to land in Colorado, mostly lining up with what is listed here.

Trailers

The trailers are rollin’ in, and none have been more impressive than Edward Berger’s Conclave, the film I have had as the frontrunner since my initial March predictions. The two main reasons I had this film up front are Berger – who directed my favorite film of 2022, All Quiet on the Western Front – and his cast, headlined by Ralph Fiennes, Stanley Tucci, Isabella Rossellini, and John Lithgow. The trailer only solidified my excitement for the movie, and, in fact, led me to do something I NEVER do before seeing the film: I bought the book.

More trailers for potential contenders to debut since June:

Coralie Fargeat’s aforementioned The Substance won the Screenplay prize at Cannes and looks INSANE! Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley have been raved about and could be in contention.

I also mentioned We Live in Time playing at Toronto, and the trailer shows promise. Any time you get a chance to set eyes on Pugh and Garfield, it’s worth the cost of admission.

And, wow… Gladiator II looks fantastic enough to move the long overdue Ridley Scott into frontrunner status for Best Director. This has all of the technical marvels that make for a nomination leader, and I currently have it out front with twelve nominations.

Robert Zemeckis reteams with Forrest Gump stars Tom Hanks and Robin Wright for a uniquely shot time capsule film, Here. I am not sure what to make of it from the trailer, but I have an inkling it will either be exceptional or a mess. Here’s hoping for the better end of that deal, but I’m cautious to place it anywhere except Editing at the moment.

Another one that I am not sure what to do with at the moment is Robert Eggers’ Nosferatu. Dark and brooding and beautiful, I am sure this will be a popular one for FilmTwitter. But is it an awards player? We can expect a well-crafted film from Eggers, at the least.

Tim Burton is another director whose films are always well-crafted. Thirty-six years in the making, Burton has Beetlejuice, Beetlejuice opening Venice. Could this provide a vehicle for Michael Keaton to finally win an Oscar? The first Beetlejuice won the Oscar for Makeup. Burton’s movies have garnered twenty nominations, eight of which won Oscars. Four of those wins were in Production Design, so you’d be foolish to leave it out of your lineup.

Timothée Chalamet could be a strong contender for Lead Actor, playing Bob Dylan in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown. Add Ian McKellen to the same field, as he looks stupendous in the new trailer for Anand Tucker’s The Critic.

Seen

Most importantly, what have we been able to set eyes on?

Let’s start with one of the best films of the year so far, Kevin Costner’s Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 1. The title is long, and at 181 minutes, so is the film. However, this introductory epic flies by thanks to sharp storytelling, towering landscapes, and powerful performances from its impressive cast. As a massive fan of the American Western, Horizon hit me right in my wheelhouse.

Costner captures a lot of the romanticism of the Old West, developing numerous character arcs within his large ensemble. He does a terrific job setting up the beauty and courage of post-Civil War America before unveiling the brutal reality that came with settling an already inhabited nation. The action sequences are tense and well shot, and, as you might expect from the director of Dances With Wolves, he never portrays Indigenous people as the villains. The sets and costumes contribute significantly to the authenticity of the historical narrative.

J. Michael Muro’s cinematography is a standout, with sweeping shots of the frontier that are both breathtaking and evocative. John Debney’s score complements these visuals perfectly, enhancing the emotional impact of the key scenes. The cast delivers uniformly excellent performances, with Sienna Miller at the emotional epicenter of the film.

The fact that it sits at 48% on Rotten Tomatoes surprises and disappoints me. In a year overloaded with sequels (when are we not?), I would have hoped that fresh and nuanced filmmaking like this would be celebrated by critics. The long runtime and less-than-stellar reviews might have led to Horizon’s underwhelming box office return, pushing Costner’s Chapter 2 out of its August release date. The new date is still TBD, but I hope audiences discover Horizon from their homes and embrace this wondrous and ambitious movie. Despite whatever flaws one might find in Horizon, the film is a remarkable achievement and a reminder of Costner’s enduring legacy, both as a filmmaker and a star in the Western genre.

Certain to be one of the biggest moneymakers of 2024, Deadpool & Wolverine is a fun time at the theater. At least for the first 90 minutes. Like its prior two entries, the audacious humor and gratuitous violence is front and center. But after a while, the laughs die down and the humor becomes a bit tedious. Its a hard one to talk about without spoilers – all of the finest moments work best if they come as a surprise – so I will leave it as this: a good time that runs on for too long.

A trio of horror films round out the month, the most notable being Oz Perkins’ Longlegs. A throwback to the suspense/horror genre of the 90s, Longlegs stars Maika Moore as Lee Harker, an FBI agent with psychic abilities on the hunt for a satanic serial killer. The killer’s crimes are unique: each is staged as a muder/suicide where a father murders his family, with every family having a daughter born on the same date. Clearly inspired by films like Zodiac and Silence of the Lambs, Longlegs stands out as a mesmerizing addition to the horror genre. While there are plenty of scares in dimly lit corners, Perkins’ tightly wound script builds tension and suspense – the main ingredients of pure horror – in a way that is rare today. Longlegs’ strength lies in how Perkins takes his time to create a suffocating atmosphere of impending doom.

Nicolas Cage is downright terrifying as the titular character, a satanic zealot who is a Manson-like puppet master. He’s icky and maniacal in all the expected ways, yet the performance feels fresh. Alicia Witt is incredibly compelling as Harker’s desolate mother. Blair Underwood and Kiernan Shipka add to a cast that forms one of the best horror ensembles in recent memory. However, Maika Moore is the glue here. Her performance is raw and gutsy, an inspiring portrayal of a hunter who feels more prey than predator.

Alas, Longlegs suffers from the same fate of many of its kin – a somewhat illogical and disappointing ending that feels like a common pitfall in contemporary horror. That being said, it’s a movie that lingers in the mind even weeks later, and that’s about as good a compliment you can give a psychological horror film.

In contrast, A Quiet Place: Day One and Abigail left me less impressed. The former, while anchored by strong performances from Lupita Nyong’o and Joseph Quinn, brought nothing new to the franchise and relied too heavily on jump scares. Abigail tried to be funny but wasn’t, and felt inconsistent in tone throughout. Dan Stevens’ performance brought a shred of excitement to the film, but neither movie is likely to make an impact on awards season, nor were they designed to.

Oscar Prediction Updates

I have revamped the Picture, Director, Acting, and Writing predictions I made in March, and have added first looks in Animated, Documentary, International, and the nine crafts categories. You can peruse the full predictions in each category at your leisure, starting with Best Picture, here.

Here’s how I have the above-the-line races at the moment: