Oscar Predictions 2025: Good As Gold Update Following Telluride and Venice

The Venice and Telluride Film Festivals are now behind us, with Toronto wrapping up on Sunday, September 15th. Following that, the New York Film Festival will run from September 27 to October 13, London from October 9 to 20, and AFI from October 23 to 27, bringing the major festival season to a close. Many of this year’s films have already premiered, while some highly anticipated titles like Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Wicked, Here, Nosferatu, and Juror #2 have yet to debut. Steve McQueen’s Blitz will premiere at London, and Here is set to be the Centerpiece Screening at AFI, but the rest are skipping the festival circuit in favor of direct theatrical releases.

Since my last update, there have been significant developments, most notably the buzz around Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist at Venice, which received rave reviews and has become a major contender in several categories.

In the Best Picture race, a few films are losing momentum. Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing struggled at the box office, which, while not a fatal blow for an arthouse film, certainly doesn’t help its case. As a result, I’ve moved it down, but not entirely out. Meanwhile, Nickel Boys from RaMell Ross and Joker: Folie à Deux from Todd Phillips have both fallen off my top ten. Both are divisive, and while passion votes could still drive them forward, their replacements in my predictions are more compelling. The overwhelming positive reception for The Brutalist (its being compared to Once Upon a Time in America and There Will Be Blood) and my personal take on Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain influenced these decisions. The Brutalist is now my number three pick, with strong potential in categories like Director, Acting, Screenplay, and Editing. However, I still see Conclave as the Best Picture frontrunner, largely due to its relevance in an election year.

For Best Director, I’m still backing Ridley Scott, but I’ve made some shifts in his competition. Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two) and Steve McQueen have dropped in favor of Sean Baker (Anora) and Brady Corbet. Pedro Almodóvar (The Room Next Door) remains just outside my predictions.

In the Best Actor race, the lukewarm reception of Joker at Venice and the controversy surrounding Joaquin Phoenix and Todd Haynes’ film has led me to replace Phoenix with Adrien Brody, continuing to elevate The Brutalist in my predictions.

Best Actress sees a shake-up as well. Amy Adams (Nightbitch) has slipped to third, with Mikey Madison (Anora) and Angelina Jolie (Maria) taking the top two spots. I’ve also moved Lady Gaga to Supporting Actress to make space for Venice Best Actress winner, Nicole Kidman (Babygirl).

In the Supporting categories, I went with two new frontrunners – Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson). I swapped out John Lithgow for his Conclave star, Stanley Tucci. This is what I originally had, but after reading the book, I felt Lithgow had the meatier role. The film did a nice job highlighting Tucci as well as Isabelle Rossellini, who I moved back in the Supporting Actress race.

For the Supporting categories, my new frontrunners are Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson). I swapped out John Lithgow for Stanley Tucci in Conclave, feeling Tucci’s role stands out more in the film, though Lithgow’s character initially seemed weightier after reading the book. Isabelle Rossellini also makes her way back into the Supporting Actress race.

The rest can be found on the Good As Gold pages, which I am sure will get another update at the end of the month. I wanted to share a quick update based on the latest festival showings and reactions we’ve seen thus far.