2025 Oscar Predictions: Does Best Actor or Best Actress Drive It?

Best Picture has not revolved around an exceptional male hero as much as it used to, last year’s winner notwithstanding. Was Oppenheimer a one-off, or does it signal a return to the way things once were?

The Oscar race was centered on the singular male protagonist for many decades. I used to write and complain about it all of the time.  But then I saw the fix: swapping out masculine heroes for tough females, a thing I should have been really happy about. But I wasn’t. Moreover, I began to detect a distinct anti-male vibe on the Left overall, but especially in Hollywood. The #notallmen and the #metoo movement seemed so important once upon a time. And they were, for their time. But there is a reason the pendulum must swing. We all start to feel a little restless for change. Now, I feel like the overcorrection has made movies and the Oscars a lot less fun.

The Best Picture race has traditionally been driven by a central male character—hero or anti-hero. That hasn’t been true much lately but it’s an old pattern many felt needed to be shaken up. I thought it might be fun to look back at the last 30 years to see what kinds of films drove the win. Sometimes it’s an ensemble, sometimes it’s a co-lead, but let’s see how this shakes out, shall we?

1930 – All Quiet on the Western Front-Male
1931 – Cimarron – Male
1932 – Grand Hotel – Ensemble
1933 – Cavalcade – Ensemble
1934 – It Happened One Night – Duo
1935 – Mutiny on the Bounty – Male
1936 – The Great Ziegfeld – Male
1937 – The Life of Emile Zola – Male
1938 – You Can’t Take it With You – ensemble
1939 – Gone with the Wind – Female

1940 – Rebecca – Female
1941 – How Green Was My Valley – Male
1942 – Mrs. Miniver – Female
1943 – Casablanca – Male
1944 – Going My Way – Male
1945 – The Lost Weekend – Male
1946 – The Best Years of Our Lives – Ensemble
1947 – Gentleman’s Agreement – Male
1948 – Hamlet – Male
1949 – All the King’s Men – Male

1950 – All About Eve – Female
1951 – An American in Paris – Male
1952 – The Greatest Show on Earth – Ensemble
1953 – From Here to Eternity – Ensemble
1954 – On the Waterfront – Male
1955 – Marty – Male
1956 – Around the World in the 80 Days – Male (with scores of minor cameos)
1957 – The Bridge on the River Kwai – Male
1958 – Gigi – Female
1959 – Ben-Hur – Male

1960 – The Apartment – Duo
1961 – West Side Story – Duo
1962 – Lawrence of Arabia – Male
1963 – Tom Jones – Male
1964 – My Fair Lady – Female
1965 – The Sound of Music – Female
1966 – A Man for All Seasons – Male
1967 – In the Heat of the Night – Male
1968 – Oliver! – Male
1969 – Midnight Cowboy – Male

1970 – Patton – Male
1971 – The French Connection – Male
1972 – The Godfather – Male
1973 – The Sting – Male
1974 – The Godfather Part II
1975 – One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest – Male
1976 – Rocky – Male
1977 – Annie Hall – Duo (leans male)
1978 – The Deer Hunter – Male
1979 – Kramer vs. Kramer – Male

1980 – Ordinary People – Male
1981 – Chariots of Fire – Male
1982 – Gandhi – Male
1983 – Terms of Endearment – Female
1984 – Amadeus – Male
1985 – Out of Africa – Female
1986 – Platoon – Male
1987 – The Last Emperor – Male
1988 – Rain Man – Male
1989 – Driving Miss Daisy – Duo

1990 – Dances With Wolves – Male
1991 – Silence of the Lambs – Duo
1992 – Unforgiven – Male
1993 – Schindler’s List – Male
1994 – Forrest Gump – Male
1995 – Braveheart – Male
1996 – The English Patient – Duo
1997 – Titanic – Duo (mostly female)
1998 – Shakespeare in love – Duo (mostly male)
1999 – American Beauty – Male

2000 – Gladiator – Male
2001 – A Beautiful Mind – Male
2002 – Chicago – Female
2003 – Return of the King – Male
2004 – Million Dollar Baby – Duo
2005 – Crash – Ensemble
2006 – The Departed – Male
2007 – No Country for Old Men – Male
2008 – Slumdog Millionaire – Male
2009 – The Hurt Locker – Male

2010 – The King’s Speech – Male
2011 – The Artist – Male
2012 – Argo – Male
2013 – 12 Years a Slave – Male
2014 – Birdman – Male
2015 – Spotlight – ensemble
2016 – Moonlight – Male
2017 – The Shape of Water – Female
2018 – Green Book – Male
2019 – Parasite – Male

2020 – Nomadland – Female
2021 – CODA – Female
2022 – Everything, Everywhere All At Once – Female
2023 – Oppenheimer – Male

I bring all of this up because it really will be a tale of two Oscars when it comes to the driving force of films this year. Anora is obviously female-driven, and its key win would be in Best Actress race. But if we went in a different direction and looked at movies that might be in keeping with films driven by a Best Actor or an ensemble performance, what would that look like?

Taking a look at Erik Anderson’s Best Actor predictions at AwardsWatch, this is what he has. (I have put in bold the films I think have the best shot at a Best Picture nomination):

1. Adrien Brody – The Brutalist (A24)
2. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave (Focus Features)
3. Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown (Searchlight Pictures)
4. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing (A24)
5. Daniel Craig – Queer (A24)
6. Paul Mescal – Gladiator II (Paramount Pictures)
7. Jharrel Jerome – Unstoppable (Amazon MGM)
8. Nicholas Hoult – Juror#2 (Warner Bros)
9. Sebastian Stan – A Different Man (A24)
10. John David Washington – The Piano Lesson (Netflix)

Next up: Kingsley Ben-Adir – Bob Marley: One Love (Paramount Pictures), Ethan Herisse – Nickel Boys (Amazon MGM), Harris Dickinson – Babygirl (A24), Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain (Searchlight Pictures), Mike Faist – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Tom Hanks – Here (Sony Pictures/Columbia Pictures), Gabriel LaBelle – Saturday Night (Sony Pictures), Cillian Murphy – Small Things Like These (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions), Josh O’Connor – Challengers (Amazon MGM), Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie à Deux (Warner Bros), Glen Powell – Hit Man (Netflix), Peter Sarsgaard – September 5 (Paramount Pictures), Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice (Briarcliff Entertainment)

September 5 and The Apprentice, among others, are still big question marks for me. I feel more strongly about:

Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
Jesse Eisenberg – A Real Pain
Paul Mescal – Gladiator II

Not necessarily for the Best Actor nomination but the films I think will be strong in the Best Picture race. A Real Pain is, I think, one of the best films of the year and it presents a familiar Oscar circumstance: an actor-turned-director nominated for acting. Though it happens on a regular basis, it’s still rare.

Here are some examples that resulted in Best Actor/Best Picture nominations:

Laurence Olivier, Hamlet (won Picture and Director)
Woody Allen, Annie Hall (won Picture and Director)
Warren Beatty, Heaven Can Wait 
Warren Beatty, Reds (won Director)
Kevin Costner, Dances with Wolves (won Picture and Director)
Clint Eastwood, Unforgiven (won Picture and Director)
Billy Bob Thornton, Slingblade (not nominated for Picture)
Robert Duvall, The Apostle (not nominated for Picture)
Roberto Benigni, Life is Beautiful (won Best Actor)
Clint Eastwood, Million Dollar Baby (won Picture and Director)
Denzel Washington, Fences
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
Bradley Cooper, Maestro

I may have missed a few. These are just my best guesses off the top of my head. In bold are those who were also nominated for or won Best Director. In bold red, those who won Best Actor. Only Laurence Olivier has won Best Actor and Best Picture.

As far as I can recall, other than Olivier, there has never been a nominated Best Actor who also won Picture and/or Director for the same film.

Jesse Eisenberg is the only actor-turned-director this year who has a legit shot at nominations in all three major categories. If I were voting, he’d be nominated for all three: Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actor. I think he deserves it. Whether that will be how things go is a different story. The more likely scenario is that he lands in Picture and Actor maybe. Director will be slightly harder to crack, as we’ve seen with Bradley Cooper missing twice.

If a film is going to win Best Picture, there is a much higher probability that the actor-turned-director lands in the Best Director category (Clint Eastwood, Woody Allen, Kevin Costner, etc). So if Jesse Eisenberg does land in Best Director that might be a sign that it has a better shot to win Best Picture.

The five films that seem strongest for Best Picture right now (to me anyway), minus those we have not yet seen are:

Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Sing Sing

Adrien Brody has already won Best Actor. Ralph Fiennes, despite a prolific career has never won an Oscar. That might make a difference depending on how heavily they chase that Oscar win. The buzz is on Brody at the moment, but that could shift. Colman Domingo also has a strong shot to win it. Best Actor is competitive but not as competitive as you’d think.

My sense right now is that the energy is with the female-driven vibe this year for various reasons. So, Anora remains the frontrunner.

My predictions as of this week:

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
A Real Pain
Sing Sing
Dune 2
Hard Truths
All We Imagine as Light
Gladiator II (not yet seen)
Alts: Saturday Night, The Substance, A Complete Unknown, Joker Folie a Deux

Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Jaques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Alt. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance; Ridley Scott, Gladiator II; Jason Reitman, Saturday Night; RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys; Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Actor
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Paul Mescal, Gladiator II
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain
Alts: Daniel Craig, Queer;Joaquin Phoenix, Joker Folie a Deux; John David Washington, The Piano Lesson

Best Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Pérez
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Baby Girl
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun

Alts: Amy Adams, Nightbitch; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked; Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie a Deux; Julianne Moore, the Room Next Door

Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (unless lead?)
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist

Alts: Yura Borisov, Anora; Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing; Paul Raci, Sing Sing; Pedro Pascal, Gladiator II

Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux (unless lead)
Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Alts: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys; Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night; Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door; Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Original Screenplay
A Real Pain
Anora
The Brutalist
Emilia Pérez
Sing Sing
Alt. Saturday NightThe Seed of the Sacred Fig

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Nickel Boys
The Piano Lesson
Gladiator II
Joker Folie a Deux

Editing
Conclave
The Brutalist
Anora
Saturday Night
Gladiator II

Cinematography
Dune 2
The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
Saturday Night
Alts: Anora

Production Design
Dune 2
The Brutalist
Conclave
Gladiator II
Wicked
Alts: Saturday Night, Joker Folie a Deux

Costumes
Wicked
Dune 2
The Brutalist
Maria
Gladiator II
Alts: Conclave, Blitz, Saturday Night

Original Score
Conclave
The Brutalist
Queer
Emilia Perez
Dune 2
Alts: Challengers, Joker Folie a Deux, The Piano Lesson, Inside Out 2

I’m sure much of this will change as we begin to see more of the unseen films.