Best Actress Watch: Angelina Jolie and the Golden Globes

Netflix released a somber trailer for Angelina Jolie’s showcase turn in Pablo Larrain’s Maria. There are only two words uttered by her in the trailer, “not today.”

The question: is this Angelina’s Year? My guess is that it’s not. That’s mainly because of Mikey Madison in Anora.

The other big reason is that the film Anora is more popular overall. With Pablo Larrain we don’t get so much of a story as we do a portrait. And as far as that goes, it can be a winning performance if there is no real competition and if the winner is long overdue. Jolie has never won in lead, though she has won in supporting. If she’d never won at all she’d probably have a better shot.

Emilia Perez, Netflix’s other baby, makes matters slightly more complicated. They’re running Karla Sofia Gascon in lead, which competes with Jolie and has a “history-making” aspect to the win, as she’d be the first transgender nominee and winner.

Jolie’s performance is much stronger but the movie overall isn’t as beloved as Emilia Perez. But neither of them can beat Mikey Madison; that’s how it looks to me right now. Things can change. I have not yet seen Saoirse Ronan in The Outrun, and I’m still waiting for Wicked to see whether Cynthia Erivo might be nominated.

Best Actress at the Golden Globes will also include Musical/Comedy, theoretically opening up twelve slots now that they have six nominees in each category.

If Anora is put in the Comedy category, she will go up against Gascon, without Angelina Jolie in the mix. Jolie, by contrast, will go in the Drama category which likely gives her the win there which could catch a wave that takes her all the way to the win.  Gascon is competition in the long run but not in the short run.

How might the Golden Globes in Best Actress go? (I’m still benched at Gold Derby, lol, so I won’t be covering them this season but you can go to that site if you want to see what they think). Here is how I’d be predicting it there if I was still on the site:

Best Actress Musical/Comedy
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Lady Gaga, Joker Folie a Deux (unless supporting)
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Zendaya, Challengers
Emily Blunt, The Fall Guy
Alts: Amy Adams, NightBitch

Best Actress Drama
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Demi Moore, The Substance
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

Given that the Golden Globes now have 300 members, it’s a little harder to guess how they will go, and we haven’t seen how the film critics might shift this race by introducing a name that isn’t “In the conversation.”

Jolie’s biggest competition, I think, will be Jean-Baptiste in the Drama category.  But I’m guessing Netflix will have more money to throw at the Globes voters and one might imagine a sit-down dinner with Jolie (for a low six figures) which would be beyond the beyond for those voters. That’s just a wild guess. Jolie’s performance is strong enough to win on its own, it’s just that the movie itself isn’t liked quite as much.

The point here is that Jolie won’t go up against Mikey Madison, unless Anora is put in the Drama category, then all bets are off.

We’ll do a deeper dive on Best Actress and Best Actor tomorrow.

Here are some screenshots: