NextGen Oscarwatcher – Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress

I have decided to combine both Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress.

Best Supporting Actress

Best Supporting Actress as a category is always wildly popular because it seems to be more “adventurous” races compared to other above the line wins. Despite several inconsistent wins regarding quality and acceptance from the Oscar community, its recipients are traditionally considered more unique and “out there.” From honoring career narratives (Viola Davis, Laura Dern) to anointing rising stars (Da’Vine Joy Randolph, Alicia Vikander), it is one that often breaks the norms and can sometimes turn out to be shocking wins.

Depending on how the narratives unfold over the next few months, this year’s slate offers unique possibilities. However, one performance seems to fly above the rest based on reactions on the festival circuit, the strength of the film overall, and is well-known in the industry despite never really having a moment in the spotlight. That person is Zoe Saldana for her performance in Emilia Perez.

While arguably a co-lead (being in arguably as much, if not more, of the runtime than lead Karla Sofia Gascon, solidifies her as a strong, if not THE frontrunner in the race. Despite facing competition, even from her costar of Selena Gomez, the atmosphere of the race has seemed to coalesce around not only around Zoe Saldana, but a way to honor the film as well, if it isn’t going to win Best Picture.

That’s not to say there aren’t potential competitors who could surprise and become the narrative of the seasons. The major performance that people still think has a shot of winning, simply on the merit of the work, is Danielle Deadwyler in The Piano Lesson, who, despite being weighed down by mixed reactions and is likely the only nomination for her project, is absolutely stunning in The Piano Lesson. Despite that, the film will likely struggle with the academy given its thematic material (veering into the supernatural) and the project being weak when it comes to receiving any other potential nominations.

Saoirse Ronan is arguably the heart and soul of Steve McQueen’s Blitz, and if the old guard of the academy is willing to get behind that project, it’s difficult to imagine a circumstance where her nomination (alongside her co-lead nomination in The Outrun) does not become a reality.

Felicity Jones in The Brutalist is only present in the second half of the project, but leaves a strong impression, and, akin to Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer, could “come along for the ride” if the project is successful overall. This overall solidifies a strong top five, give or take an Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor in Nickel Boys whose performance is strong, but very unorthodox compared to everything else.

There are a select few contenders that have yet to be properly screened, such as Toni Colette in Clint Eastwood’s Juror No. 2, and Robin Wright in Here (if supporting). It is undoubtedly a race to keep an eye on with some moving parts, but thankfully, it does seem some of those parts have fallen into place.

Best Supporting Actor

Unlike Best Supporting Actress, there does seem to be a sense of suspense in who ultimately is the “frontrunner” in the race at this stage of the game when it comes to Best Supporting Actor. Three specific contenders stick out when it comes to narrative, history, and passion. Those three actors and films being, Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing, Guy Pearce in The Brutalist, and Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain (Sight unseen on my part regrettably). Each of these performances has a ton of solid reasoning behind why a win has the potential to occur. Each of them signifies a different reason altogether.

Starting off with Kieran Culkin in A Real Pain, it’s abundantly clear that the one element that is pushing him (and Eisenberg’s film forward) is enthusiasm and passion from those who watch it. Everyone from the older, more traditional viewers to the younger, “new generation” of viewers, Eisenberg’s dramedy has really solidified itself as a dark horse contender going forward, with many suggesting it can fit into a year of ten best picture nominees. With this comes a passion for writing and acting. Considered the heart of the film (and coming off of Succession) many want to honor Culkin for his supposed sentimental performance, and if the project catches even more momentum with regional critics groups as it is doing at regional festivals, it can really make a difference in the race.

Next, with Guy Pearce for The Brutalist, one finds a performance that many look at as a “traditional” winner in this category. Playing a complex, but very foreboding individual whose connection to greed and selfishness becomes more apparent throughout, Pearce is giving his all, and, similar to performances like JK Simmons in Whiplash, Javier Bardem in No Country For Old Men, and most recently, Robert Downey Jr. in Oppenheimer, being a name in the industry and giving a performance this layered can lead to a domination in the category. Couple that with Corbet’s film likely hitting a number of nominations, and winning several (such as Pearce’s co-star, Adrien Brody) there is a strong case to be made for Guy Pearce to win as well.

The last of the core three, Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing, is still, in my view, the undeniable frontrunner in the category (as long as Kwedar’s film stays in the conversation). Portraying a version of himself in the project, Maclin offers so much humanity through this personal artistic expression, and having a writing credit on the film, makes it all the more his story as it is John Divine Whitfield’s. With Kwedar’s film having a few screenings schedule with academy voters, A24 is making a push, and Maclin (alongside his co-star in lead, Colman Domingo) are likely in it for the long run.

Besides the core three, there are a number of other individuals in the running. One film with many supporting actors, but has difficulty signaling out just one is Edward Berger’s Conclave. Though Stanley Tucci is on paper the ideal contender, it is John Lithgow in his short amount of scenes that leave an impact. Jeremy Strong in The Apprentice (like Culkin to a lesser extent from Succession) gives a supposedly memorable portrayal as Roy Cohn, even if its middling reactions are hurting it overall. Lastly, Mark Eydelshteyn is a dark horse for Anora if Baker’s film really goes the distance. Performances that haven’t been officially seen yet include Denzel Washington in Gladiator II, and Edward Norton in A Complete Unknown, but those remain to be seen. For the last two slots, I would settle on for now Denzel Washington in Gladiator II, and, perhaps as a no guts no glory, John Lithgow for Conclave.

Predictions

Globe Supporting Actress