NextGen Oscarwatcher – Best Picture Temperature Check, Part One

As we enter the final two months of the year, on the cusp of an unprecedented election, it feels just right for me to finally analyze the Best Picture race (and category) in its own article after doing so for each of the above-the-line categories. Compared to September, when festivals were occurring and films were premiering or screening for critics and/or audiences, it seems a consensus has formed. Some questions have been answered, but some remain, and others form.

What is known

With an expanded lineup of ten, the best picture race becomes easier in some ways, but harder in others. In a strong year, it is an opportunity to broaden the horizons of an industry that many have deemed (and still have) to be insular, caving to a smaller crowd with similar tastes than one that is open to each and every person. But in a weak or slimmer year, it seems as if pundits and the voters are grasping at straws to fill every slot.

However, if this was a year of five (or even a sliding scale), one could very easily select five, perhaps up to seven films already that feel “assured” by pundits (and truly, those who still care) to get into the lineup of ten. Those films are Sean Baker’s Anora, Brady Corbett’s The Brutalist, Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez, Denis Villeneuve’s Dune Part II, Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing, Edward Berger’s Conclave, and Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain. I’ve seen six of these seven (Eisenberg’s film continues to be a pain in of itself, having missed it at Telluride and NYFF), but there are strong enough reasons why every single project would get nominated.

A Real Pain fits the “steak eater vote,” being compared favorably to films from the likes of Alexander Payne in its deep human exploration. Though unable to see it, everyone I have talked to has fallen head over heels for it. With a very probable two nominations in Original Screenplay and Supporting Actor (Kieran Culkin being someone people believe can even pull it off in the end), it feels fairly solid to fit into an expanded best picture field.

That can be said about Conclave as well. Edward Berger has crafted a very captivating political thriller that seems to have gone extinct in recent years. Still, alongside screenwriter Peter Straughan and a strong ensemble, it’s a project that, too, would do better with the old guard of the academy. Raking up several nominations in writing, acting, score, and even director if the academy really loves it, it’s another “rock solid” best picture nominee, at least as of now.

Greg Kwedar’s Sing Sing continues to go MIA in the awards spectrum afar having been a major focal point from awards watchers earlier in the year. However, industry screenings have taken place, and at certain regional festivals, the cast has been honored for their commitment to the project. Kwedar has created a film (alongside Colman Domingo and Clarence Maclin, among many others) that above all else, emotionally resonates with those who watch. Despite its seemingly problematic campaign, A24 is not giving up on the project, and in writing/acting categories, it can very easily make its presence known (like Sian Heder’s Coda from a few years ago).

Denis Villeneuve‘s Dune Part II remains a technical juggernaut and a sizable above-the-line contender with likely noms in Best Picture, Best Director, and even Adapted Screenplay. Though the March release date is one that feels long ago, it’s competitive in several techs, from visual effects to cinematography and some design categories, akin to George Miller’s Mad Max: Fury Road. Will it go the distance and win the top awards? Too early to say, but it is firmly in the conversation.

Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez is a stealth contender that made its presence known at Cannes, taking several awards, and solidifying itself as a crowd-pleasing, rousing achievement that many will emotionally resonate with due to its musical presentation, and more importantly, its themes regarding representation.

On top of likely wins in International Feature and Original Song (which one is unknown), it will likely receive multiple acting noms (Gomez, Saldana, and Gascón), directing and writing for Audiard, and most importantly, Best Picture. Though it has the passion, it’s unequivocally a divisive project and will probably find difficulty reaching a consensus. However, on top of a likely presence at SAG and Bafta/Golden Globes, it is firmly upper tier.

Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist is rightfully dubbed the “achievement of the year.” Produced on a budget of less than $10 million and only securing distribution after the festivals, it is a project that demands to be seen on the biggest screen possible. One with stunning below-the-line crafts, but more importantly, incredible performances from Pearce, Jones, and Brody (who is very likely to win), in addition to Corbet’s committed directing and writing, it stands a very possible shot at going the distance, akin to Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer as a grand, singular vision about American innovation, and an inspiring technical marvel.

Last but certainly not least is the undisputed frontrunner of the category, Sean Baker’s Anora. Balancing brilliant comedy with a heartfelt focus on the life of a sex worker, Baker’s film has been on a strong steamroll since Cannes, winning the Palme d’Or and continuing its festival presence until its release in October. With a strong chance of winning Original Screenplay, Best Actress for Mikey Madison, and even Director for Baker, its chances of going all the way are present.

These seven films make up the likely 10 nominated for Best Picture.

The real question becomes, what will the last three slots hold, which will be the focus of next week’s article.