For the next few weeks (leading up to the Golden Globe nominations), the focus will primarily (most likely) be on the categories outside of the top eight that are above the line. Focusing on these three, in particular, is appropriate as they seem to bridge the previous eight and the remaining 16 categories.
1) Animated Feature
Voted on by the entire academy, what makes the Best Animated Feature category stand out from the vast majority of the others (in addition to being just twenty years old), is that it’s an opportunity to nominate films that the general public (even those who have no interest whatsoever in the awards race at all) have actually seen or heard of. However, despite the entire voting body having the opportunity to vote on the winners (some willingly choose not to), the international segment has produced some interesting choices that are found and snubbed some more populist picks.
The two films that stand out as frontrunners are Chris Sanders’s The Wild Robot and Kelsey Mann’s Inside Out 2. In many ways, it’s a battle between two projects representing positive aspects of the animated industry. The former is a truly unique and innovative project that thrives on word of mouth and festival hype, and the other is a box office sensation that is a callback to a film from a decade ago. It’ll be a race to the end, but as of now, I’d give the edge to The Wild Robot.
In addition to the other two, one has to think “auteur” and pick wisely if that person wants to get five for five. Think Stop-Motion (Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl), International (Flow), and think emotionally (Memoirs of a Snail). Don’t settle on having many sequels (Moana 2).
Best Animated Feature Prediction
- The Wild Robot
- Inside Out 2
- Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
- Memoir of a Snail
- Flow
(Alt: Moana 2)
2) International Feature
The most frustrating aspect of the next two categories is the fact that nothing will really be truly known about these races until December, when the shortlists finally release. A project one has near the top of the top five might be whipped out of contention just because of knowledge regarding how close it really is.
Being voted on by the entire academy like the previous one though, it has its frontrunners, and its underdogs. The undisputed film that is far ahead and very likely pulling it off is Jacques Audiard’s, Emilia Perez. Despite its more recent divisive reactions after its release, Audiard’s film has been on a winning streak at Cannes, TIFF, and a lot more in the near future, most likely. Despite not technically “winning” an award, this gives Audiard a chance to speak on the stage as a possible consolation for the film overall, and being a likely best picture nominee (potentially a strong one at that), it’s a winning message.
After Emilia Perez, it gets a bit more complicated. Projects like Mohammad Rasoulof’s The Seed of the Sacred Fig also won at Cannes, and after struggling to get a country submission, has done so in the form of Germany (akin to Emilia Perez getting the French submission). It’s by no means a lock, but as of now it feels safe to slot into the top five. After that, the possibilities seem endless. Walter Salles’s I’m Still Here has done very well at its festivals (including Venice), and though many highly buzzed-about projects (Decision to Leave and Titane as examples) have missed the international feature lineup in the end, it’s probably best to not predict a snub until there is some evidence to support it. Other contenders that fit the bill regarding international features include Rich Peppiatt’s Kneecap and Magnus von Horn’s The Girl with the Needle, which have played at various festivals, attracting a ton of buzz.
Best International Feature
- Emilia Perez (France)
- The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
- I’m Still Here (Brazil)
- Kneecap (Ireland)
- The Girl with the Needle (Denmark)
Alt: Vermiglio (Italy)
Best Documentary Feature
Contrasting the animated feature category, the Best Documentary feature category is nearly impossible to predict correctly. Even when the shortlist arrives, it is more likely than not to have snubs and/or surprises. Voted on by a branch as opposed to the entire academy, certain films have certain quips and advantages that others do not.
In typically Academy fashion, populism is a detriment. The perceived frontrunner (2018’s Won’t You Be My Neighbor, 2019’s Apollo 11 etc) likely gets snubbed altogether, either due to the populist appeal, or the presence of archival footage, and something more subdued gets nominated, or even wins.
This is exactly why I am dubious about contenders such as Will and Harper, and especially Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. Despite the “crowdpleasing nature” of these projects, the branch is far more attached to abstract, even international documentaries. Two that stick out immediately are No Other Land (a documentary focusing on the Palestinian/Israeli conflict) and Daughters (down-to-earth doc that focuses on the father/child bond). As of now, as long as the former gets distribution, this feels like a race between the two of them, unless the one of the two populist docs ends up getting nominated, and the race changes altogether. The rest of the category is the equivalent of throwing a dart at a dart board and seeing what ultimately sticks
Best Documentary Feature
- Daughters
- No Other Land
- Black Box Diaries
- Sugarcane
- Dahomey
Alt: Will & Harper
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