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The Oscar race this year is like herding cats. We’re in a middle of a transitionary period and who knows where it will all end up. The Golden Globe voters are voting right now. Their ballots are due December 4th. the film that feels buzzy at the moment is Wicked, and I imagine they can expect to do very well at the Globes.
The Golden Globes now have six nominees in all film categories, making predicting easier, especially in a year like this one. I think I forgot about that the last time I wrote about the Golden Globes. Oh well. But yes, since last year, each category has one extra name. That makes using the Golden Globes, like the Critics Choice, tricky when it comes to predicting the Oscars since there are only five nominees.
The question with the Golden Globes is what they’ll do as a consensus group. Will they follow Gold Derby and vote accordingly, or will they go rogue and think for themselves? My guess is that they will follow the consensus because that’s what people do and why the Oscar race has become so, shall we say, safe and relatively boring.
The Golden Globes are still trying to rebuild their reputation after the big collapse when they were hit with charges of racism, etc. Now, they have been bought by Penske Media because what part of the awards race doesn’t Penske Media own? They brag about being 60% inclusive and diverse:
The 300-person voting body is 47% female and 60% racially and ethnically diverse, including 26.3% Latinx, 13.3% Asian, 11% Black and 9% Middle Eastern. Voters come from countries like Armenia, Cameroon, Costa Rica, Cuba, Guatemala, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Serbia and Tanzania.
You’d think, given such a diverse membership, that some of their choices might be more eclectic or unique. But we’re talking about a consensus, which must, by design, dumb things down to the common denominator. That’s why Penske Empire is the perfect fit for the Golden Globes: it’s one big snake eating its own tale. They go to Gold Derby, take their marching orders from the pundits there, and everyone wins. Millions are flooded back to Penske regardless.
But I will be surprised if they “go rogue,” as it were, and offer up a more interesting slate. For all of their talk about “diversity,” there isn’t much of it in the awards race.
So, what’s the consensus at Gold Derby? I’ll list the film categories here and will follow with my own predictions, based on absolutely nothing but a hunch:
Best Picture, Drama
Conclave
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Sing Sing
Gladiator II
Blitz
My Prediction:
Conclave
The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Sing Sing
September 5
A Complete Unknown
Best Actress Drama
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truth
Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door
Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door
My Prediction:
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Best Actor, Drama
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig, Queer
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
My Prediction:
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Daniel Craig, Queer
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Best Picture, Musical/Comedy
Anora
Emilia Perez
Wicked
A Real Pain
The Substance
Challengers
My Prediction:
Anora
Emilia Perez
Wicked
A Real Pain
The Substance
Saturday Night
Best Actress, Musical/Comedy
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Demi Moore, The Substance
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Zendaya, Challengers
My Prediction:
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Demi Moore, The Substance
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Zendaya, Challengers
Best Actor, Musical/Comedy
Glen Powell, Hit Man
Jesse Eisenbeerg, A Real Pain
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Michael Keaton, Beatlejuice Beatlejuice
Hugh Grant, Heretic
My Prediction:
Glen Powell, Hit Man
Jesse Eisenbeerg, A Real Pain
Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Ryan Gosling, The Fall Guy
Michael Keaton, Beatlejuice Beatlejuice
Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Selena Gomez, Emilia Perez
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
My Prediction:
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Margaret Qualley, The Substance
Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Stanley Tucci, Conclave
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
My Prediction:
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Yura Borisov, Anora
Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
Edward Berger, Conclave
Denis Villeneuve, Dune Part Two
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
My Prediction:
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
Edward Berger, Conclave
Denis Villeneuve, Dune Part Two
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Best Screenplay
Anora
Conclave
The Brutalist
Emilia Perez
Sing Sing
A Real Pain
My Prediction:
Anora
Conclave
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
Emilia Perez
September 5
Animated, International and Score can be found at Gold Derby, and I’ll be posting my full predictions as we head toward the nomination announcement.
