2025 Oscar Predictions: The Best Picture Muddle

Update: I somehow left Wicked off my predictions for Best Picture. I didn’t mean to do that and will change it now.

It was 2009. The setting was an expensive home in the Hollywood Hills. I was having dinner with a group of mothers for our monthly “Mothers Daughters” meeting. One was an NPR reporter, another a pilates teacher, another a therapist. All were progressives and feminists. When the subject turned to the Oscars, I asked them, “What movie do you think is going to win Best Picture?” All of them said Avatar. I said, “No, The Hurt Locker is going to win. They all looked at me, confused. They’d never heard of the movie and they had no idea that the first film directed by a woman was about to win Best Picture.

That was the turning point. But it was notable to me that even the type of people who listen to NPR every morning were unaware of The Hurt Locker. I always knew the Oscars were a shrinking bubble of bloggers, critics, publicists and the voters. The Academy only serves to put a period on the end of a long sentence.

Finding the movie this year that will serve the purpose of that sentence is the trick, as opposed to looking for what really is the Best Picture of the year. This is an industry that has lost its way. They seem to not care about the ticket buyers. They ask everything of them – their time, their money, their attention, their admiration – while giving very little back. “Here is something you will like but we will tinker with it so that it serves us, not you.”

Movies that were truly great, that pierced through the public and became part of the collective, like The Godfather and Silence of the Lambs no longer find their way to the Oscar race. At best, a movie is celebrated by a group of critics and that turns out to be good enough. I’m afraid that’s where we find ourselves this year, without one Big Oscar Movie that is unequivocal. It happens sometimes.

A film like The Silence of the Lambs was a movie everyone had to see. They had to see it. It was a movie made to be great. The best actors for the part. The best script. The most exciting storyline. Voting for that movie as Best Picture of the year was as easy as eating vanilla ice cream. It went down easy. It tasted sweet. I saw The Silence of the Lambs three times in one day in the movie theater because I kept dragging different friends back, “You have GOT to see this movie.”

It was such a popular film, lines from it, parodies of it, exist to this day. It became an organic part of not just our culture’s DNA but culture throughout the world. THAT is what an idea Best Picture looks like. But of course, it also could not be made today because of the screeching activists patrolling with clipboards, ensuring all are in compliance — CORRECT — all of the time. If not, the Eye of Sauron will land upon them and then, watch out.

So when we watch most movies now, we feel that self-conscious, “hostage video” kind of feel by the movie makers. Is everything correct? Does it offend a single person? Is it sending the right message? How in the world can any film be good now, given that? What we watch now are movies we accept are never going to be great films anymore but movies that we can, at the very least, tolerate.

But how to recommend a movie now? It’s nearly impossible unless it’s a certain kind of person – a “woke” progressive, upper middle-class sophisticate. Then I know I can say, “oh, you’ll love this movie.” But in general, it has become harder and harder to do that every year. Hollywood is just plain too weird for the broader public and world.

Finding the consensus pick is hard this year. Whatever wins, it won’t be like last year. It’s not an Oppenheimer year. It might be a Spotlight or CODA kind of year where one movie barely wins.

To me, there are only two movies this year that achieve that goal and it’s a shame that they aren’t more well known or widely seen. The first is Sean Baker’s Anora, which comes the closest this year to a movie that is passionately loved and one anyone watching it will get at the very least if not love. The other is Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain, a film that isn’t given as much attention as it deserves.

Both of these films tell a story, full stop. That’s especially true with Anora. There is a bit of the self-conscious filmmaker in Jesse Eisenberg, because there has to be. There always has to be. ALWAYS. The eye must be on the “correct” side. But it’s less so in A Real Pain than it is in nearly every other movie. Another good one is Clint Eastwood’s Juror #2, which has almost no chance of getting in. Along those same lines is The Order, which has mostly been buried or ignored, despite it being a good film.

Anora is not your typical Academy movie and it hasn’t made a lot of money but its prominence in this race isn’t just because of a great performance by Mikey Madison, but it’s a celebration of Sean Baker himself, his entire career of making movies about people on the fringe, cinema verite-style. If it wins, it will win on pure love for the film and the filmmaker. But it is not a general audience crowdpleaser by any means, for the sexual content alone, but it packs a powerful emotional punch, at least it does to me.

There are other films that I believe are worthy of inclusion in the race, including Wicked — not just for box office but because it has seeped into the collective — Inside Out 2, which absolutely should be included if Disney can find enough voters to put it at number one — The Substance, for pure daring and artistic excellence — Dune Part Two for delivering and topping the first one. Conclave is a class act from top to bottom, especially in terms of writing, acting and directing. Some have a problem with the ending and how they view that part of it will influence whether it has a chance to win or not.

The movies that feel “on the bubble” to me, meaning they might find their way to a broader audience, would be September 5, Emilia Perez, A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, Saturday Night (might build up word of mouth), Sing Sing (never really caught fire).

There are three kinds of Oscar pundits right now. The Anora group, the Wicked group and the Conclave group. The Anora group are the ones, I think, that have it right. At least right now. The problem for Wicked is that it’s a Part One. Why would they give the Best Picture win to a Part One? And can you imagine a voting body of 70% male “steak eater” types picking that movie to win? How many theater geeks can there possibly be in the Academy? I’m not so sure. The actors dominate, without a doubt, and they vote as a bloc  as virtue signalers. But I don’t even know if they would choose Wicked Part One.

Conclave has a problem with passion at the moment. It feels very like a movie from the old days of the Oscars, like the 1990s. That doesn’t mean it isn’t a good movie but it does mean people aren’t running around saying they LOVE the movie. Some do, but most? 10,000 people in the Academy? Doubtful.

No, the only one that will draw a large percentage of the mostly male Academy will be Anora — until I see something that can, in any way, top it. It’s non-“woke”, sexually thrilling, unpredictable, funny and ultimately moving. So bet against that one at your own peril.

When it comes to Best Picture, it’s wise to do two things: think actors, think men. What will both of them throw their love behind? Will Wicked win the SAG ensemble? Maybe. Maybe not. Why wouldn’t Emilia Perez win that? Lots to ponder in the next few weeks.

Here are my predictions for this week — and Happy Thanksgiving to all.

Best Picture
Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Wicked Part One
Dune Part Two
The Substance
Emilia Perez
A Complete Unknown
A Real Pain
September 5
Alts: Sing Sing, Blitz, Inside Out 2, Gladiator II, Nickel Boys

Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Denis Villeneuve, Dune Part Two
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Alts: James Mangold, a Complete Unknown, Jon Chu, Wicked, RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys, Jaques Audiard, Emilia Perez

Best Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Demi Moore, The Substance
Alts: Angelina Jolie, Maria; Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths

Best Actor
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Alt: Peter Sarsgaard, September 5

Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Yura Borisov, Anora
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
Alt. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson

Best Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Alt: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys, Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown

Original Screenplay
September 5
The Brutalist
Anora
The Substance
A Real Pain
Alt: Emilia Perez, A Complete Unknown

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Dune Part Two
The Piano Lesson
Inside Out 2
Queer

Cinematography
Dune Part Two
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Conclave
Emilia Perez

Editing
September 5
Anora
Conclave
The Substance
Dune Part Two

Production Design
Dune Part Two
Wicked
The Substance
Blitz
Furiosa

Costumes
Wicked
Dune Part Two
The Brutalist
The Substance
Emilia Perez

Sound
Wicked
Dune Part Two
Gladiator II
Twisters
Deadpool & Wolverine

And that was all she wrote. Have a great weekend.