Oscars 2025: Do the Gothams Matter?

The Gothams announced their winners last night and many were shocked that they didn’t adhere to the consensus — or at least what pundits thought would happen (which doesn’t really mean anything). Anora was locked out, but then, so where many of the expected winners. But two things should be considered. The first, they use the eternally irritating “gender-inclusive” method for both acting categories. Ten nominees, one agonizing winner. It isn’t fair to do it that way, despite them upending their entire system to feed the unending craving for fairness. There should be a male winner and a female winner and if they insist on a non-binary category, go for it.

The second thing to consider is that the juries are small. Like five people small. That’s hardly a consensus vote. That’s like you asking five of your friends what movie they liked best.

For instance, these are the five people who decided Best Feature:

The Best Feature jury included: Nicole Beharie, Oscar Isaac, Adele Romanski, Rajendra Roy, and Julia Stiles.

And Lead performance:

Lake Bell, Don Cheadle, Anthony Michael Hall Pamela Koffler, and Joana Vicente.

Supporting:

Kaitlyn Dever, Kitty Green, Charles Melton, Angela Russo-Otstot, and Blair Underwood.

So it isn’t indicative of how a larger consensus will vote by any means.

On the other hand, the Oscars are now and have always been about perception. Consensus is built around the fragile human mind that seeks to be like other fragile humans. WE NEED TO AGREE! Or we like to agree. Some prefer the contrarian approach, like these voters here. But much of the time, like-minded people tend to pick roughly the same things.

Also, fragile humans like to be on the side that’s winning, to quote Bob Dylan. It makes them feel good. So if a movie or an actor starts winning, there’s a good chance they’ll keep winning.

And finally, there is a new impulse that runs through Hollywood and film criticism now. They feel good by lifting up people deemed marginalized or forgotten. They don’t think, “poor Ben Affleck got snubbed for Argo” so much as they think “why are all these white men winning everything?” It’s along those lines, which makes judging or predicting their motives a little more complicated.

So, whether it’s the Gothams or the Globes or the Astras or the National Board of Review (announcing tomorrow), all it means is that the publicists can splash the win on FYC ads and grow consensus by growing that winning feeling. So it’s good for A Different Man, for Sing Sing and for Nickel Boys, but that doesn’t mean it’s bad for Anora or The Brutalist or Conclave or any other movie.

The same will apply to the New York Film Critics announcing in mere moments.

In closing, these awards help but they don’t hurt. To me, it breathes new life into Sing Sing, sets up Nickel Boys as a contender and perhaps puts Adam Pearson in a spot to win Supporting Actor. That’s how I see them.

Here are some videos from the Gothams: