2025 Oscar Predictions: The Buzzmeter, The Challenges to the Acting Frontrunners

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The three actresses who seem destined to win this year are Cynthia Erivo in Wicked, Mikey Madison in Anora, and Demi Moore in The Substance. I still don’t buy that Karla Sofia Gascon will win on political outrage alone. I don’t think voters vote that way. They have to be moved by the performance. In this case, if it were not for the transgender factor, I don’t think Gascon would even be nominated.

Before I saw Wicked, I was certain Mikey Madison had this award sewn up – and she still might. But I’m starting to hedge a bit on that because Cynthia Erivo might be the one to beat. That doesn’t mean Wicked wins Best Picture. It is a Part One, after all. But Hollywood and the Oscars need to keep the Oppenheimer streak going to survive. That won’t impact Oscar voters probably – what do they care? But Wicked is the only film that hit it big. It has everything a Best Picture winner needs, with just one problem dangling at the end, “To be continued.”

Without that, Wicked would seem to be the frontrunner to win. How can one even begin to justify any other movie winning at this point? Still, that one thing about it prevents me from feeling confident.

Cynthia Erivo, on the other hand, doesn’t have any such barriers.  Erivo has managed to charm nearly everyone, including me – an accused and condemned witch — but more than that, she has managed to appeal across the aisle. Here is none other than Ben Shapiro praising her performance and saying she should win Best Actress for it. That is what you call crossover appeal.

It’s a tough call between the three, Erivo, Madison and Moore – at least to me. There aren’t any performances in the Drama category that, I think, come anywhere near these three, performance-wise. I agree with Shapiro here. I was blown away by Wicked but mostly because of Erivo. It isn’t just the singing. You can’t take your eyes off of her because she plays such a compelling character. So there you have it, something to think about when making your predictions.

Timothee Chalamet now presents a significant challenge to Adrien Brody and Ralph Fiennes

If Cynthia Erivo is now close to becoming the new frontrunner for Best Actress — why wouldn’t they give it to her? They want to give Wicked a big prize, if not Best Picture and Best Actress would be big enough. Likewise, Timothee Chalamet’s Dylan is one for the ages. I will be writing a longer, more in-depth piece about this but just to say that Adrien Brody in The Brutalist and Ralph Fiennes in Conclave have serious competition with Chalamet. I would not have believed it if I had not seen it for myself. But now that I have, it seems clear to me that Chalamet is strong enough and just knocks it out of the park.

The Brutalist gets a new trailer

Indeed, Adrien Brody gives a brilliant, masterful performance and could win. But I wonder if he might not be caught in something that handed him the win last time. When Jack Nicholson from About Schmidt and Daniel Day-Lewis for Gangs of New York split the vote, Brody won for The Pianist. Now, he and Ralph Fiennes might split and hand the win to Chalamet. Something to think about.

Ariana Grande now challenges Zoe Saldana in Supporting

If there was one lock it was Saldana. Ordinarily, I’d feel more compelled to sell Netflix and their films because they’ve always been advertisers on this site. But they, like every other studio, have turned a cold shoulder to me this year. It isn’t like I am a “pay to play” site, though I imagine that goes on much more than people realize. I do always go the extra distance for those advertising. Meaning, I don’t criticize their films. I “do no harm” to their films, and if I love them, I will champion them. I found that to be a fair compromise, but now that none of them are advertising (one studio has flirted with the idea but has not pulled the trigger),  I don’t feel any need to protect anyone or amplify any movie.

Usually, by this time, my site would have sold out all of its inventory, and I’d be down to advertorials because so many studios wanted to advertise. But all it took was one column in the Hollywood Reporter by Rebecca Keegan to end a 25-year business. So, I figure, if they feel justified in doing that — why should I care on my end what I say about them and their films?

There is only one thing more powerful than money in Hollywood: the truth. So that’s what you’re getting from me, at least for one more year as I decide whether or not to even stay in this business.  I am an Elphaba, after all.

I thought Saldana was good but Ariana Grande blows her away. I can’t imagine anyone choosing Saldana over her, especially if they want to give Wicked big awards if not Best Picture. The problem with Emilia Perez – and how it ended up with a record-breaking 10 nominations is beyond me – is that it isn’t a very good movie. It has moments that are good. But most of the excitement around it is only because people feel some kind of euphoria when it comes to elevating films about transgender people. It is inclusive and representative to them and makes them feel like they are good people. But the film itself fizzles out by the end, leaves many stories hanging, including the Saldana plot-line.

Wicked, on the other hand, is an A+ of a movie and why wouldn’t they give both Oscars to Erivo and Grande?

Speaking of Two Women, Demi Moore and Margaret Qualley are another duo who could, theoretically, win in Lead and Supporting.

I don’t know how anyone competes with Wicked, but The Substance might give it a run for its money with the two performances that drive it. They’re not winning in the critics awards in the run-up so far, but who knows. We’ll find out what the Globes think when they hand out their awards, although I’m wondering if they might split in the Musical/Comedy category and end up awarding Gascon as their one big award for the film. Once Gascon takes the stage and you get the standing ovation and the tears, not to mention landing in the culture war, who knows how that will go.

But the win should be given to those who actually gave the best performance and that would be between Mikey Madison, Cynthia Erivo and Demi Moore (in my opinion).

What About Nicole Kidman in Babygirl?

I was not a fan of Babygirl. I thought it didn’t go far enough with the dom/sub plotline, and it seemed to be yet another movie about female empowerment. I feel like that’s played out. Can we have something else, please? She could have been, say, a villain. She could have been wrong for cheating on her husband but no. It has to be the great crime that she could not get sexual satisfaction from her husband, so what choice did she have but to engage in an affair with a co-worker? In the end, she wins because she gets everything she wants. She is not punished. She is rewarded. It felt like having your cake and eating it, too. But as I said on Twitter, if your cake is Harris Dickinson, where is the harm?

Do I think she can win? No. Not for this. She will take the fourth slot:

Mikey Madison, Anora
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Demi Moore, The Substance
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl

As to the fifth slot, that’s probably Karla Sofia Gascon, though it should be Marianne Jean-Baptiste. Netflix spends a lot of money — millions — on the awards race so I doubt they’ll miss this nomination. And so it goes.

Supporting Actor still feels like it’s Culkin’s to Lose

One category where there doesn’t seem to be much wiggle room, at least right now, is Kieran Culkin. I did wonder about Adam Pearson in A Different Man because it’s hard to imagine them not voting for him. But Culkin has the advantage of being a lead performance stuffed into the supporting category. He’s also great in the film. This will be among the most well-liked of the movies in the race, I predict, one of the few that you can sit anyone down in front of and they will get it if not love it.

Can anyone challenge him? It depends on how the race goes and if the momentum heads in any other direction but at the moment, I think not.

Actor Barry Keoghan has had enough of bullying and harassment.

I can’t imagine why this would be happening – what is so wrong with people that they would treat someone like this?