Heading into the heat of the season, there are always smear campaigns that rise up, whether they’re real controversies or fake controversies. All it takes is to trigger the fragile army of activists on Twitter for a fake controversy to erupt that sounds like a real controversy. The latest was someone saw the wonderful conversation between Pamela Anderson and Mikey Madison where the question of “intimacy coordinators” came up.
To her infinite credit, Madison said she elected not to have one and instead put her trust in the director, producers, and actors. Imagine that! Imagine a grown-up, an artist who prefers to immerse herself in the reality of the scene instead of, you know, trying to have sex while your cat is watching. I wish helicopter parents like me had not raised a generation of puritanical people who do not seem to have any understanding of the adult world – even though they’re adults. They see victims everywhere. They see all men as predators. What a way to grow up.
Obviously, the oligarchs who control Hollywood like them because it protects them from being sued. The Me Too movement allowed anyone to cash in big because most people simply settle rather than avoid the bad publicity. If you choose to stay and fight your career will be over. In other words, confess as a witch to live.
Art can’t survive this madness. I don’t think any movie with sex scenes that has an “intimacy coordinator” is going to be that good. You can feel the fear, sense the hesitancy—it’s not art. It’s not acting, and why do we have to dumb everything down to the emotionally mature level of kindergartners?
Therefore, Mikey Madison’s performance is far and away the best of the year because she came at it as a real artist, not any preconceived notions of how to please certain groups, but just to find the authenticity in the character, free of pressure. We believe her in the role of a sex worker. There is never a moment we doubt that we are immersed in this strange world. A world, by the way, that is all around us. Twitter just ruminated as a group on a sex worker named Lily Phillips who slept with 100 men in a day and then cried about it on a documentary. Everyone felt like she was a victim until they realized her next goal was 1,000 men in a day.
But that’s just one example on the tragic end. There is another sex worker that hundreds of thousands of women watch every day on TikTok – Blue Eyed Kayla Jade. She’s become a sensation, but she doesn’t go farther than she wants to and speaks plainly and hilariously about her job. She is one of the most entertaining people on TikTok, but she is always looking out for her own safety, as most sex workers do.
My friends, it’s a whole new world, and much of Hollywood isn’t keeping up. That’s one of the reasons Sean Baker and Anora stand out. It does exist in the real world. Sean Baker has always been drawn to those who live on the fringe, but more than that, he wants to depict how things really are and find the beauty in his characters—even those (especially those) who are a mess.
When I think of intimacy coordinators, I think about someone who is there just because people are worried about someone on the set sexually assaulting someone else. Imagine being the guy in that scenario. I’m sure most films have them – which might explain why everything has become so strange lately. On the one hand, everything feels dry and puritanical. On the other hand, there are no limits when it comes to sex among everyone BUT heterosexual males.
Nicole Kidman is the other actress who is in a story that revolves around sex. I personally did not buy Babygirl. I could sense the hesitation in it, even if audiences have complained in the opposite direction, that Kidman was being exploited. I didn’t think she was exploited enough. It felt like a PG version of BDSM to me and in the end seemed to come down to one woman’s quest to have an orgasm. Yeah, and? Kidman was great, she always is. I just didn’t see the role as complex so much as overly simplistic.
But I am probably in the minority there.
Speaking of authenticity of character, a word must be said for Marianne Jean-Baptiste who gives herself over fully to her broken, sad, miserable character in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. It’s a wonderful ensemble and if award season was about most deserving the cast of Hard Truths would land in SAG for ensemble. But it isn’t fair. Money talks and I’m afraid the Hard Truths team doesn’t have it. And why chase it anyway? It’s not like there is much profit to be had anymore in the Oscar industry. They’ve lost their audience.
But be that as it may, if we’re simply talking about talent here, and immersive work, Baptiste soars to the top of the pile. It is a remarkable performance and one that Black women aren’t often given to play, complex – even unlikable — characters. It happens, but it’s less common than it should be.
However, when it comes to winning, Madison’s main competition, I think, is Cynthia Erivo in Wicked and Demi Moore in The Substance. Moore is probably the bigger threat at this point because of her veteran status and the rising popularity of the film itself. The Substance’s buzz is rising. It feels like Wicked’s buzz is dying down slightly.
Where Kidman could rise is in the Drama category at the Golden Globes. It is expected that Angelina Jolie will sail through to a win — never underestimate the power of Netflix regarding the Golden Globes. But I would worry about Kidman here because her performance is building buzz at just the right time while Angelina Jolie’s buzz is dimming a bit. And, as with Erivo, all of that will change with a Globes win. So this could all be moot. I think the Drama category win is down to these two — Angelina Jolie vs. Nicole Kidman.
Mikey Madison will have to compete directly with Cynthia Erivo at the Globes, along with Demi Moore and Karla Sofia Gascon. But if she doesn’t win there, that doesn’t necessarily mean her reign is over. The Globes now have 300 voters, most of them international, and we have no idea how they will line up since we only had last year to compare.
When we put together the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice over the past few years, we see that even getting both of these nominations isn’t a guarantee for an Oscar nod. And often, a name lands in the race that hasn’t been named anywhere else. Take a look at the charts since 2009:
But pay particular attention to this run here, the post-2020 mess. The BAFTA brought in select committees to ensure equitable choices for Best Actress (to eliminate bias – like the intimacy coordinators but for “racist” BAFTA voters). With the changes at the Globes, finding the consensus is harder. So I don’t know what to make of the awards. Even SAG doesn’t have a solid record of 5 for 5. Winners do tend to more or less match between the groups, but predicting the nominees can be tricky.
It will be interesting to see whether we can get back to our general consensus five or if these awards will be all over the place. There is a scenario in which the name that rises suddenly is Fernanda Torres in I’m Still Here. I don’t think that will happen but I could see a scenario in which that plays out. There is a lot of grassroots enthusiasm for her, and sometimes, that can move the needle. But at the moment, it feels like Jean-Baptiste might benefit from that kind of thing.
For now, I will do as Luke Skywalker did in Star Wars. I will not follow the charts but will act on instinct to land on my predicted five, at least until we hear from BAFTA and SAG, and none of that happens until January.
Here are my predictions for this week:
Best Picture
Anora
Conclave
Wicked
The Brutalist
Emilia Perez
A Complete Unknown
Dune Part Two
The Substance
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
A Real Pain
Alt: A Different Man, Nosferatu
Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Alt: Jaques Audiard, Emilia Perez, James Mangold, a Complete Unknown, Jon Chu, Wicked, Denis Villeneuve, Dune Part Two
Best Actress
Mikey Madison, Anora
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl
Demi Moore, The Substance
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Alts: Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez, Angelina Jolie, Maria (theory: the two Netflix actresses split their vote – probably wrong but…)
Best Actor
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Alt: Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice or a Different Man (he’ll split his own vote)
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Yura Borisov, Anora
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
Alt. Adam Pearson, A Different Man, Jonathan Bailey, Wicked, Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Alt: Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson, Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Original Screenplay
The Substance
The Brutalist
Anora
A Real Pain
Alt: Hard Truths, September 5
Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Dune Part Two
A Complete Unknown
Emilia Perez
The Piano Lesson
Cinematography
Nosferatu
Dune Part Two
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Editing
Conclave
Anora
Dune Part Two
The Substance
Wicked
Alt. Emilia Perez, Challengers, September 5, Saturday Night
Production Design
Wicked
Dune Part Two
Nosferatu
The Substance
Emilia Perez
Alt. Furiosa
Costumes
Wicked
Nosferatu
Dune Part Two
Emilia Perez
The Substance
Sound
Wicked
Dune Part Two
Gladiator II
Twisters
Deadpool & Wolverine
Animated
Inside Out 2
The Wild Robot
Flow
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Moana 2
Score
The Brutalist
The Wild Robot
Challengers
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Makeup and Hair
Wicked
The Substance
Beatlejuice Beatlejuice
Nosferatu
A Different Man
Original Song
Compress/Repress, Challengers
El Mal, Emilia Perez
Harper and Will Go West, Will & Harper
Mi Camino, Emilia Perez
Kiss the Sky, Wild Robot
Visual Effects
Dune Part Two
Alien: Romulus
Twiters
Gladiator II
Wicked
Documentary Feature
Sugarcane
Dahomey
Eno
No Other Land
Queendom
International Feature
Emilia Perez
The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Flow
I’m Still Here
Kneecap
That’s it, folks. Have a great weekend.
