As we round out the year’s Oscar movies, two of the big standouts in the 11th hour appear to be Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance and Robert Eggars’ Nosferatu. If both films get in for Best Picture it will mark a turning of the page for the Oscars. Horror films have gotten in before, but two in the same year would be quite something. Both are graphic but unique, directed by true visionaries. Both could find themselves landing in many of the craft categories as well, like Cinematography and Production Design, not to mention costumes.
Nosferatu will likely hit $100 million at a minimum as it has the must-see factor, the kind of movie no one wants to wait to watch on streamer. If they’re hoping to help revive the corpse of Oscar they could do a lot worse than picking movies people know about and are impressed with.
Says Deadline’s Anthony D’Alessandro:
The adult stuff is also bound to rally with Nosferatu seeing a potential and amazing $42M off a B- CinemaScore. Even at a $23M 3-day, that’s easily Robert Eggers’ best opening ever, well north of The Northman ($12.2M).
Timothee Chalamet and Lily-Rose Depp used to be a couple, which is why it’s kind of funny to see their movies side by side, opening the same weekend. Nosferatu has done better with critics than audiences (though it will make more money), A Complete Unknown has done better with audiences (aka Chalamet fans) than with critics. As in:
A Complete Unknown is attracting the Boomers and Gen-Xers, but those comprise the majority of Academy members, which makes it more likely it lands in the Best Picture race. But Nosferatu will remain in the conversation because everyone is talking about it and because it will be among the very few films to make real money this year.
Sean Baker has called it the best film of the year, writing on X (per World of Reel):
It’s going to be very hard to beat NOSFERATU for my fave film of the year. Must see on the big screen. Eggers’s direction is masterful and Lily-Rose Depp and Nicholas Hoult deserve best actor noms. Glorious cinematography, score, production design and editing. My god this an incredible film.
Both of these films will do well at the box office. Both star popular young stars — who used to be a couple.
I’ll be doing a longer predictions column tomorrow but I could see it going something like this:
The Substance
Picture
Director
Actress
Supporting Actress
Screenplay
Editing
Production Design
Hair & Makeup
Nosferatu
Picture
Director
Supporting Actress (Lily-Rose Depp — she can’t get in for lead)
Costumes
Production Design
Cinematography
Hair & Makeup
A Complete Unknown
Picture
Actor
Screenplay
Maybe Supporting Actor
Maybe Director
Maybe Editing
What makes Nosferatu strong on a Best Picture possibility is that it will be, for many, a number one choice, like The Substance. So I would keep an eye on it.
