NextGen Oscarwatcher: The Golden Guilds

Initial reactions to GG and Guild Predix

January 6, 2025

in BEST PICTURE, featured, NextGen Oscarwatcher, PREDICTIONS

Originally, I intended to attempt to continue analyzing each category, their frontrunners, and challengers, but considering how fast-moving the season is(plus after covering the above-the-line categories and film categories), it feels right to jump right into the guild nominations.

Golden Globe Reactions

Truly, what a night of surprises. Some lows (Anora being shut out) and some highs (Demi Moore! Fernanda Torres!) really defined the evening and how different the globes have become. The main ideas I would have to take away from this night would be

Anora is no longer “the frontrunner.”
The Brutalist is a respective frontrunner in Director and Actor, one could argue even Best Picture but it is “too early” to call that, as we saw two years ago when Fablemans and Banshees did very well, only resulting in Everything Everywhere All At Once going the distance about the guilds.
Demi Moore’s narrative is real, and that film is rising, while Kieran Culkin’s momentum isn’t stalling despite its lack of presence in Best Picture.
Emilia Perez is the musical for international voters, and its controversy is moot to its overall prospects.
Fernanda Torres (my no guts, no glory) prevailed, pushing her into the final five with AMPAS. Who she takes out is the bigger question.
Sebastian Stan is a star of the year, but whether or not this can help solidify his placement in the best actor five remains to be seen.
Conclave is taking adapted screenplay while Saldana is a frontrunner in Supporting Actress.
Adrien Brody remains your frontrunner in Best Actor.

I intend to make CCA predictions later this week alongside Sasha, but if some of these winners correlate, a consensus will be formed, and if there is a difference, a true race will form. I also might do a piece related to the “changing of the frontrunners” considering it seems like last night was a wakeup call in more ways than one. Then, next week is Bafta noms and Oscar noms. Very overwhelming.

Sasha will be making her predictions for these either later today or tomorrow. But here are mine:

SAG

Screen Actors Guild nominations will be unveiled this Wednesday, January 8^th, likely in the morning. This is a crucial precursor for primarily two reasons

1). It is the first major industry-correlated precursor
2). Five nominees as opposed to the six or more found in CCA, GG, and other respective organizations.

This is a make-or-break moment for several contenders people consider safe or on the cutting room floor. Surprise SAG nominations and misses are likely to occur, but they are impossible to predict.

Best Actor

It’s four solid slots and one that feels entirely opened

Locked

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

That last slot could go to anyone, and nothing would be surprising. Any think Hugh Grant’s performance in Heretic fits the genre mold that guild members tend to lean towards. Others think Sebastian Stan’s performance in either A Different Man or The Apprentice throughout the year would solidify him. Many are holding out hope for Daniel Craig in Queer, but I am going out on a limb and predicting Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain. The reasoning for this is the assumption that Kieran Culkin is likely winning, and without a place to nominate Eisenberg for screenplay, these voters would recognize him for a similarly strong, quiet portrayal. Regardless, this is wide open, and expect the unexpected.

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain

Best Actress

If there is one SAG category that feels stable as of now(though this is slightly debatable following BAFTA longlists), it is Best Actress. Four people feel secured at least here

Locked

Demi Moore, The Substance
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Conventional wisdom says to go with the Netflix biopic (Angelina Jolie) and I am tentatively doing that, and despite Torres’s win at the globes, I still think Jolie makes it into this five.

Demi Moore, The Substance
Mikey Madison, Anora
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Angelina Jolie, Maria

Best Supporting Actor

Four people seem secured here, at least, and if one of them were to miss, it would be quite the surprise of the morning.

Locked

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

It’s that fifth spot that is hard to identify, and it would be between three people of Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice, Clarence Maclin for Sing Sing, and Yura Borisov for Anora (off chance for someone like Stanly Tucci for Conclave but who knows). Gut instinct (and maybe personal preference) points to Clarence Maclin in my eyes, as SAG voters are rumored to be really resonating with Sing Sing, but nothing would be surprising here.

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

Best Supporting Actress

It is a race between the musical performances, and they are the only real locks here.

Locked

Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Ariana Grande, Wicked

After this, it’s really anyone’s guess. Isabella Rossellini has been consistently showing up for Conclave, and, being an actors voting body, this would be a prime place for her to show up. Selena Gomez for Emilia Perez is another one who, despite missing CCA is in a film that industry voters are fully embracing. That leaves a final spot between three people of Margaret Qualley for The Substance, Felicity Jones for The Brutalist, and Danielle Deadwyler for The Piano Lesson. It’s clear The Substance, in general, is having a moment, and I have to settle on Margaret Qualley.

Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Selena Gomez, Emilia Perez
Margaret Qualley, The Substance

SAG Ensemble

Probably the easiest category to put together, there is a solid consensus that may or may not be interrupted by a surprising omission/inclusion:

Wicked
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Anora
Sing Sing

It would not surprise me if one of these WERE to be missed, but for what (perhaps Brutalist or Complete Unknown) is hard to choose. Rather than predict a major snub, it feels safer just to stick with the consensus.

Bonus: SAG Stunts

Dune Part II
Gladiator II
The Fall Guy
Deadpool and Wolverine
Wicked

DGA

On the same day as SAG, the Directors Guild of America will announce the five recipients for its main feature film award. The important note to caution regarding the voting body (of nearly 20,000) is that it consists of television directors, commercial directors, and other lesser-known people in the business. Popular films more likely than not, prevail (in most cases). There seems to be a solid top four in this category so far.

Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Edward Berger, Conclave
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

That last spot feels very up in the air, and if I had to guess, it’s a real battle between three people. Jon M. Chu for Wicked, Coralie Fargeat for The Substance, and Denis Villeneuve for Dune Part 2. Unless Kwedar or Mangold makes it in(Ross will most likely be recognized as a first-time director), these seem like the top seven. My gut instinct says this is razor close between Fargeat and Chu. If I had to guess (going against my better judgment), I would lean towards Fargeat due to her narrative and the film having that genre, populist appeal, and directorial vision.

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, Conclave
Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

First Time DGA

RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
Sean Wang, Didi
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine As Light
Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson
Annie Baker, Janet Planet

PGA

The last of the core three guilds (though there will be a bonus on WGA), announces on January 10^th. As a reference, here are the ten films that were shortlisted for Bafta Best Film

Anora
The Apprentice
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Kneecap
The Substance
Wicked

Wisdom suggests take out two of these films, those being Kneecap and The Apprentice, insert two of four films. The four in contention being A Real Pain, September 5, Nickel Boys, and Sing Sing. Probably based on just gut instinct, and vibes, the latter two seem to have more passion. Though this doesn’t feel entirely certain, I would have to go with Ross and Kwedar’s films over the other two simply because they have made their presence known this season, while the other two have been struggling recently.

PGA Ten