2025 Oscars: Best Actress – Are they really going to snub Marianne Jean-Baptiste?

Every year there is a place held in the major categories for the “Netflix slot.” Netflix has so much control over the Oscar race that pundits simply hold their spot every year. While this is true of other studios, it is more true of Netflix. The reason is that their publicist, Lisa Taback, is among the best in the business. Not to bring in winners, that’s harder, but to bring in nominees. The Netflix publicity team micro-manages the race soup to nuts. There is no blogger or pundit untouched by them, well, except for me. This is the first year I have been blacklisted by them.

I realize it isn’t personal. They worry that associating with me will hurt the chances of their contenders. They can’t afford even a little bit of controversy. I think it’s cowardly, and I don’t admire it, but I understand it. That is why I am speaking so freely now. Were they spending on a lavish ad package I might hold my tongue but what do I have to lose by now?  When did the Oscar race become like the mafia? Well, when money got involved, of course.

So let’s just tell it, shall we?

There is only one reason Karla Sofia Gascon is in the race: she is a transgender actress. Her part is, at best, a supporting role (even if she is the titular character). She has been treated like a religious icon more than just a contender in the race. How odd all of that is. She is not a religious icon. She is a male who transitioned to female and played both a man and a woman in Emilia Perez. But that’s as far as it goes. The acting isn’t the best of the year, not in lead. It certainly isn’t where some of her competitors are. Take even a Netflix rival, Angelina Jolie in Maria. She doesn’t have the benefit of being transgender so she missed on a nomination she deserved at the SAG Awards. Why? Because Netflix has prioritized Emilia Perez. Why? Because they know Hollywood. They know it’s a town full of virtue signalers who find their collective sense of purpose in “making history.”

Gascon has quietly made history at the Globes and the SAGS, but Taback and Netflix are way too smart to turn this into a story. There are a few headlines here and there, but it’s muted, and it was muted for the Golden Globes. Once they cross the final barrier for the Oscars, the publicity machine will start to roll. Netflix is first in the transgender nominees and has another contender in the television race with Baby Reindeer. Okay, fine. Whatever. You do you, Hollywood, I’ll be over here championing actresses who don’t have the benefit of being seen as religious symbols and aren’t walking virtue signals for Hollywood, like Marianne Jean-Baptiste who arguably gave the best performance of the year in Hard Truths.

The Best Actress race is packed with brilliant actresses, like Mikey Madison in Anora, Demi Moore in The Substance, and even Pamela Anderson in The Last Showgirl. These are roles that don’t come easily. With Moore and Anderson, they have waited their entire careers for this moment. But why are voters automatically green-lighting Gascon, who is the weakest of the contenders in terms of performance alone? That is a rhetorical question. I know why. I also know I risk a great deal in speaking out but someone has to start tellling the truth around here and we might as well start with me. As Bob Dylan would say, when you ain’t got nothing, you got nothing to lose. Call me whatever you want. Most other sites are too afraid to talk about this and most of them have become delivery devices for ads anyway.

At the moment, there are several actresses “on the bubble” and all of them would be a better choice than Gascon and yet it feels like this “making history” thing will go all the way to the end. I don’t want to embarass her. That’s not what this is about. This is, rather, saying the Emperor is not wearing any clothes. If “trans women are women” then they are open to the same criticism women are. I mean, why is this one group no one is allowed to say anything about? Sorry but if you want to be a woman then you have to deal with what it really means to be a woman and that means you will be fairly criticized.

Do you think I, as a woman, get any protection whatsover? Spoiler alert: I don’t. Not online, anyway. And yes, I understand that trans people are bullied, harassed and attacked. I don’t approve of that, but at the same time, I can’t treat them like they are not fully grown adults.

Missing out at the SAGs were both Nicole Kidman for Babygirl and Angelina Jolie for Maria. I think these actresses canceled each other out to perhaps have taken a spot. They’re both big stars and they’re both in movies that are likely to get just the one nomination. I underestimated The Last Showgirl, especially Jamie Lee Curtis’ well known popularity in the industry. And who knows what’s going on behind the scenes there. But both of these women turned in performances that are more worthy than the placeholder nomination for Gascon. If we’re being honest.

However, the one who really should be prioritized is Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths. I’m not even talking about the fact that she’s a Black woman, though I could easily go there. You know I could. You know I did nothing for years but push for more Black women to win. But I don’t have to do that because everyone knows that Baptiste’s work is exceptional. Not only that, she’s been acting for decades, paying her dues, doing the work. Why on earth would she not be the first on many lists?

Because Netflix has a permanent place in the race, and if it weren’t Gascon, it would be Angelina Jolie. People are voting for her because they believe they have to. The film Emilia Perez is being attacked on TikTok by so many people who complain about it. They hate that it beat Wicked and Anora at the Golden Globes. There are complaints from Mexico and from the trans community (or so I’ve heard). But none of that can compare to industry people taking another puff of the making history crack pipe. They can’t help themselves.

Here is a chart of the Best Actress race so far with the BAFTA long list included:

We can’t blame the critics. The critics have stepped up and said: THIS IS THE BEST PERFORMANCE OF THE YEAR. So we can’t blame them, not this time. No, this is 100% on the politics that have overtaken and nearly suffocated the life out of art and film awards that are designed to reward it.

To be a good Oscar predictor, I would have to predict Karla Sofia Gascon because I know you people. I have been writing about you for 25 years. I know what you’ll do. But I am speaking up now that the ballots have been delayed to ask voters to at least watch Hard Truths. Watch Baptiste’s exceptional work. It’s not an easy sit. It’s a difficult performance. It’s the kind of performance Black women never get, if you want the HARD TRUTH of it. She’s not playing any kind of symbol. Voting for her will not absolve you of your sins of wealth and privilege. It’s not another huff of the crack pipe. It’s just doing the honest work of awarding the best. It’s as simple as that.

These are the actresses who should be nominated, in my humble opinion:

Mikey Madison, Anora – should win.
Demi Moore, The Substance — it’s okay if she wins; she deserves it too.
Erivo, Wicked (I forgot her and then realized it — of course, she’s great).
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths — also should win.
Nicole Kidman, Babygirl — hated the movie but she’s good in it.
Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl — It’s good and she’s deserving.

Then we can get to the rest of them:
Angelina Jolie, Maria
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
Saorise Ronan, The Outrun
Kate Winslet, Lee
Amy Adams, Nightbitch

And then, only then, do we finally get to Karla Sofia Gascon, if we’re just talking the performance and the level of difficulty. She did fine. But she is not better than the above-mentioned Actresses. That’s not meant to be mean or offensive. It’s just the truth. If it was a brilliant performance I would say so but it isn’t. It makes people feel good that she exists and that they can be the kind of people who make history with the first transgender actress but meanwhile, they’ve handed out one Oscar win to one Black woman in 97 FUCKING YEARS or Oscar history.

The character Baptiste plays is not likable. Not even a little bit. She’s an old bitch, like Yours Truly, but THIS is what great acting is. If you no longer recognize it then you have no business voting on awards to begin with.

Hollywood lives in a perpetual state of unreality. They can’t and won’t face the truth about almost anything, not the bad ratings, not the dying the box office, not the “woke” crap that has destroyed their brand, none of it. They just want to exist in the rarified air of their utopian diorama. Fine. I guess if the money train keeps on a-rolling, they can all convince themselves that any of this has any meaning whatsoever beyond being a magic mirror reflecting back at them how great they all are.

This is your warning shot. Think hard about the Best Actress race and ask yourselves who really did give the greatest performance, and what, if anything, is the high bar? Are the Oscars meant to validate progressive politics? Is that all they are now? If so, then fine. Let’s stop pretending it’s a competition because if you make it a competition and an actress like Marianne Jean-Baptiste delivers that performance and you ignore it? Then, it’s not just my right to call bullshit, it’s my obligation.

Thank you for your time and now back to your regularly scheduled programming, aka nothing to see here, move along, move along.