No one wants to think about, much less talk about, the Oscars right now. There has been too much devastation and loss to think about anything as silly as film awards. And yet, the show must go on. Ballots must be filled out, though I expect many will not be, as people avoid having to vote in a year with so many weak offerings. That’s not true if you ask Film Twitter or those attending film festivals to pump up the Oscar race. They love this year. There are so many movies they love, movies from all over the world — nothing but art and creativity everywhere you look.
This is a moment of reckoning for Hollywood, even if almost no one will talk about it. We’re living through a new era, a generational shift where a large number of people are turning away from traditional media, for instance, and Hollywood films because they aren’t getting anything new and no one “tells it like it is” in film anymore. What we get is a group of people increasingly cut off from the reality of daily life and who seem to only want to school all of them on how to think, what to like, what is funny, etc. But what we’re missing is the same kind of thrilling new voices that tell the truth that we’re seeing across the media now in the form of podcasts especially but also on various outsider platforms.
Here is Mark Zuckerberg talking to Joe Rogan about this. He isn’t applying it to Hollywood because he knows better. Hollywood doesn’t move the needle anymore, not really. It appeals to a shrinking demographic and doesn’t have the same kind of impact it used to. People are too afraid. This is something early adopters could see coming. I certainly could. I wanted to be among those voices people trust, not those voices that obey the new social code.
So that is why it is so hard to find a frontrunner this year. “Best Picture” has changed so dramatically it no longer applies to what audiences think. If Wicked weren’t a two-part film, it would have the best chance of being that movie that most people out there would know and recognize at the Oscars. So what do we have instead? We have a situation where we have to find the just right bowl of oatmeal for Goldilocks. Not too cold, not too hot but just right.
We just have no idea what that movie will be, and no, we don’t really count the Globes. They’re a group of 300 people plucked from obscurity whose tastes we can’t measure for a few more years. They can reflect the consensus, such as it is, but all of the various guild groups vote at much larger numbers than the Globes. You are looking at a broader consensus of thousands.
What will win the Critics Choice? What will win the DGA, the PGA, the SAG ensemble? Will it be the same movie or different movies across each of them? I don’t know. But here is how I see the Best Picture race shaking out:
Best Picture of the Year that actually made money — Wicked, Dune Part Two
Best Picture of the Year that defied the Ordnung (not woke) and just told a great story about real-life characters in a moving, thrilling, unforgettable way — Anora, A Real Pain.
Best Picture of the Year that celebrates what Hollywood can really do when you collaborate with the best writers, actors, and directors — Conclave, A Complete Unknown
Best Picture of the Year that is an original work of art, though not exactly easy to sit through — The Brutalist, Nickel Boys
Best Picture of the Year that manages to be both social justice-leaning and brilliantly directed — The Substance
Best Picture of the Year that celebrates Wokeness in all of its insular glory — Emilia Perez
And there you go. Your Big Ten. These are the films the PGA will likely choose when they release their nominations on Monday. I would rank them this way in terms of chances of winning (right now at least):
- Anora
- Conclave
- The Brutalist
- Emilia Perez
- Wicked
- A Complete Unknown
- The Substance
- Dune Part Two
- Nickel Boys
- A Real Pain
I also think that there is a chance that Sing Sing can replace A Real Pain. Here is what our NextGen Oscarwatcher thinks, in the order he predicts:
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- Emilia Perez
- A Complete Unknown
- Wicked
- The Substance
- Dune Part 2
- Nickel Boys
- A Real Pain
Alt: Sing Sing
We have almost the exact same list because that’s “THE CONSENSUS.” To see it all laid out in chart form, with the BAFTA long list that only goes back to 2020, here you go:
What seems obvious to me about these lists is that the BAFTA is very hard to predict. Their long list more or less follows the consensus, with a couple of exceptions. For this year, perhaps The Apprentice does not make Best Picture at PGA (maybe it does, who knows), and Kneecap is definitely not getting in to the Oscars. But knowing which five BAFTA voters will choose, as you can see, isn’t as easy as you’d think. How did Anatomy of a Fall beat Barbie, for instance, for a spot. CODA made the long list but did not make it in the top five and ended up winning Best Picture.
Movies like Avatar and Women Taking, or Nightmare Alley, that failed to make the long list can get in anyway. All of them had a previous nomination somewhere.
Moving on to the WGA, of the eligible films, it should not be that hard to find scripts, although you really never know with these predictions. We could see some wild cards.
Here is how I would order the WGA predictions:
Original (The Substance among those not eligible)
1. Anora
2. A Real Pain
3. Saturday Night
4. Babygirl
5. Civil War
Alt. My Old Ass
Adapted (Conclave is not eligible, obvs)
1. A Complete Unknown
2. Nickel Boys
3. Queer
4. Nightbitch
5. Wicked
Alt. Hit Man, Nosferatu
Here are Scott Kernen’s WGA predictions:
Original
1. Anora
2. A Real Pain
3. Challengers
4. Saturday Night
5. Civil War
Alt: The Apprentice
Adapted
1. Nickel Boys
2. Wicked
3. Dune Part 2
4. A Complete Unknown
5. Hit Man
Alt: Nightbitch
So I guess we’ll have to see how the predictions shake out when all is said and done. Here are my current and most recent Oscar predictions:
Best Picture
Anora (SAG/DGA)
Conclave (SAG/DGA)
The Brutalist (DGA-Globe winner)
Emilia Perez (SAG/DGA-Globe winner)
A Complete Unknown (SAG/DGA)
Wicked (SAG)
Dune Part Two
The Substance
Nickel Boys
A Real Pain
Alt: Sing Sing, Nosferatu, The Apprentice
Best Director
Sean Baker, Anora (DGA)
Edward Berger, Conclave (DGA)
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (DGA)
Jaques Audiard, Emilia Perez (DGA)
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
Alt: James Mangold, a Complete Unknown (DGA), Jon Chu, Wicked, Denis Villeneuve, Dune Part Two, RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys
Best Actress
Demi Moore, The Substance (Globe winner)
Mikey Madison, Anora
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Alts: Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (Globe winner), Nicole Kidman, Babygirl, Angelina Jolie, Maria
Best Actor
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (Globe winner)
Daniel Craig, Queer
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Alt: Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice or a Different Man (Globe winner)
Best Supporting Actor
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (Globe winner)
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Yura Borisov, Anora
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked
Alt. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing, Adam Pearson, A Different Man, Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
Best Supporting Actress
Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez (Globe winner)
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Alt: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys; Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson, Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown
Original Screenplay
The Substance
Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
Alt. Hard Truths
Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Dune Part Two
A Complete Unknown
Queer
Alt. The Piano Lesson
Cinematography
Nosferatu
Dune Part Two
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Editing
Challengers
Conclave
Anora
Emilia Perez
Wicked
Alt. September 5, The Substance, Saturday Night
Production Design
Wicked
Emilia Perez
Nosferatu
Dune Part Two
The Substance
Alt. Furiosa
Costumes
Wicked
Emilia Perez
Nosferatu
Dune Part Two
The Substance
Sound
Wicked
Dune Part Two
A Complete Unknown
Gladiator II
Deadpool & Wolverine
Animated
Flow
Inside Out 2
The Wild Robot
Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Moana 2
Score
Emilia Perez
The Brutalist
The Wild Robot
Challengers
Conclave
Makeup and Hair
Wicked
The Substance
Beatlejuice Beatlejuice
Nosferatu
A Different Man
That’s it. Have a great weekend and we’ll talk soon.