It’s been a fairly hectic week in the awards race, and, for many (including yours truly) there are some predictions that are proving to not age well, and the reality of the state of certain contenders are starting to become more apparent, as is the case with every award ceremony. Going through each of the guilds this week(unfortunately no PGA due to its recent delay), it is important to highlight the strengths and weaknesses that are noted throughout.
SAG
- Sing Sing is fading: Probably my biggest mistake this entire awards season was refusing to acknowledge that Kwedar’s film is not the Oscar frontrunner many imagined it would possibly be. Missing not only Clarence Maclin as a supporting actor but SAG ensemble, it’s clear that the film is either not being seen by enough people (as A24 is putting all their chips behind The Brutalist) or the subject matter is just not resonating with voters. It’s been a slow but gradual decline in awards prospects and proof that no film is safe unless it is given the proper attention/word of mouth needed to make itself known. Domingo is the only constant that has been present throughout the year, and he may be the only nomination for the film.
- Wicked, Emilia Perez, Conclave, and A Complete Unknown have made their presence known. SAG having each of these respected films receive anywhere from two to five respective nominations signifies strength with the actors branch. I caution that 2,000 random SAG members choosing the nominees isn’t the be-all/end-all, but showing strength with this branch shows the populist appeal each of these films ultimately has.
- Anora got over the Globes hump: For the brief few days between the GG and SAG nominations, it seemed concerning that Baker’s film was fading and taking the annual “early frontrunner curse.” Nevertheless, landing three SAG nominations (including a surprise slot for Yura Borisov) shows that the industry (and American voters) might be much warmer to Anora than the 300 Foreign journalists were that chose the GG winners.
- The Brutalist could be going down the “Respect but not Love” path: Doing well at the Golden Globes but struggling with guilds is a common theme among projects that are well-liked artistically but struggle to emotionally connect with the normies. Missing the ensemble nom, plus snubs for Felicity Jones and Guy Pearce signify a difficulty in either seeing the film or connecting with it. Corbet might be on his way to a directing win, but Best Picture is a different conversation, yet voters may still get behind it due to its technical merit and cinematic importance.
- The Last Showgirl is an actors movie. Whether or not this translates with the more international, high-brow academy remains to be seen.
- Denzel Washington, and Angelina Jolie’s snubs signify an uphill battle down the road.
DGA
The Directors Guild is significant not necessarily because it implies what or who will be a part of the lineup for Best director at AMPAS (as we are seeing, that branch, in particular, is getting more and more international compared to the 18,000 vote membership of DGA) but it signifies what films the normies really connect with. The lineup consists of
- Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
- Sean Baker, Anora
- Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
- Edward Berger, Conclave
- James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
Four of these films performed well with SAG, and the one that did not is your frontrunner in the respective category. Suffice to say, it is very possible that if the Best Picture race was just five nominees, THIS is the five that would be selected. For AMPAS, especially with voting being extended plus the more international membership, its very likely that this won’t be the exact five selected for Best Director. James Mangold feels like the one to swap out, but maybe its Edward Berger who misses too, and the most shocking omission would be Sean Baker missing due to the international voting branch’s preference for other filmmakers and visions. Outside of Brady Corbet and Jacques Audiard at this point, no one feels truly safe for the five. Bafta will be key. This is a category known for its unpredictable twists and turns throughout the years, and for whatever reason, this could be the year something truly shocking occurs.
PGA
Unfortunately, due to the tragic fires in LA, the guild has postponed their respective nominations until sometime in the next week. Prior to the other announcements, my predictions for this guild looked something like this:
- The Brutalist
- Anora
- Conclave
- Emilia Perez
- Wicked
- The Substance
- Dune: Part Two
- A Complete Unknown
- Sing Sing
- Nickel Boys
Following SAG, I removed Sing Sing because it seems to be fizziling out due to subject matter and/or visibility. Now my nominations look something like this:
- The Brutalist
- Anora
- Conclave
- Emilia Perez
- Wicked
- The Substance
- Dune: Part Two
- A Complete Unknown
- Nickel Boys
- A Real Pain
The Alts would probably be a number of populist films such as Eggers’ Nosferatu, Guadagnino’s Challengers, or the off chance of something like Garland’s Civil War. I settled on A Real Pain due to how well it has been performing with guilds, but a miss seems fairly possible. For the Oscar ten, I am thinking about the possibility of something like Kapadia’s All We Imagine As Light replacing Eisenberg’s film, but this is really all dependent on when Bafta announces, which is tentatively on Wednesday.
Regarding Bafta I imagine, if they are nominated, to be more international-oriented than any of the guilds so far. After all, this is the organization that put The Apprentice and Kneecap in their best film ten longlist over Nickel Boys, A Real Pain, and Sing Sing
If I had to predict the above the line categories (no jury vote anymore thankfully), it would go something like this:
Best Film
- The Brutalist
- Anora
- Emilia Perez
- Conclave
- The Substance
Best Director
- Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
- Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
- Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
- Sean Baker, Anora
- Edward Berger, Conclave
- Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine As Light
Best Actor
- Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
- Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
- Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
- Daniel Craig, Queer
- Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
- Hugh Grant, Heretic
Best Actress
- Demi Moore, The Substance
- Mikey Madison, Anora
- Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
- Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
- Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
- Kate Winslet, Lee
Best Supporting Actor
- Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
- Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
- Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
- Yura Borisov, Anora
- Stanley Tucci, Conclave
- Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Best Supporting Actress
- Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
- Ariana Grande, Wicked
- Isabelle Rossellini, Conclave
- Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
- Margaret Qualley, The Substance
- Michele Austin, Hard Truths
Best Original Screenplay
- Anora
- The Brutalist
- The Substance
- A Real Pain
- Kneecap
Best Adapted Screenplay
- Conclave
- Emilia Perez
- Nickel Boys
- Lee
- A Complete Unknown
Best Casting
- Emilia Perez
- The Brutalist
- Conclave
- The Apprentice
- Kneecap
It’s a very unpredictable season all things considered. I might publish more updated bafta predix when we get closer to the ceremony, but as of now, this is where I am. We should all pray for the people in California whose lives are impacted by what is occurring. If you want to follow me on twitter, the link is here
