Academy voters probably aren’t exactly plugged into the Oscar race at the moment. I expect they’re caught up in the catastrophe unfolding in Los Angeles now. Of course they are. As usual, most of the Oscar movies are depressing or painful to sit through. Fine in ordinary times, but perhaps not the light uplift they need. Don’t worry, voters, I got you.
First, one of the biggest problems with the Oscar race right now is that it is curated by millennial bloggers who are catered to by publicists and studios, given access and often, big payouts. They don’t have to pay to see movies. Everything they see and write about, and ultimately predict, reflects their tastes — a generation raised to have their emotions attended to, where identity matters more than anything else. They love what they believe is “pure art” but they’re disconnected to the whole point of movies in the first place. That is just one aspect of them. There is a 90% majority of things that matter to everyone else.
I am not so deluded as to think my singular opinion can sway or change the consensus. I know it can’t. I helped build this beast – I practically invented it — I am as much at fault for the mess we’re in now as anyone. But. The pendulum has swung too far away from the people who matter the most: audiences. We don’t look at box office because none of us has to pay for movies at all, least of all Academy voters. They, like the entire industry, have become too comfortable being a pampered aristocracy who think that an enjoyable Boomer nostalgia film like A Complete Unknown reflects the counterculture in any way. Despite its great performances, it does not. That doesn’t make it a bad movie. It’s actually one of the few movies on offer that is for audiences.
A movie like Emilia Perez, however, is a pure hot house flower gently guided along by the awards machine with no real audience, not even on Netflix. It’s their only pony this year, however, after Maria failed to gain any traction, not even for Angelina Jolie whom many in the awards race insisted would actually win. Why didn’t gain traction? I don’t know. But I do know that Netflix takes us farther away from what the Oscars were designed to do. They weren’t designed to drive audiences to subscribe on massive streaming monopolies. They were meant to drive people to movie theaters where movies play in towns all over the country and world. We aren’t supposed to sit in our living rooms and have a singular experience with the screen then go on social media and talk about it. We are meant to share the same space with our fellow human beings. The Oscars are meant to honor movies in movie theaters.
And yet, it seems as though we’re stuck. By contrast, so many good movies came and went in movie theaters with no audiences at all. So many great ones. Like Sing Sing, a movie made for audiences. Not even the awards machine could drive people to it because most people look at the idea of it and think: I don’t want to go be “woked” again.
I think of the Who song, “won’t get fooled again,” only with the word “woke” instead. Most people feel like every time they go to the movies they get burned. So why bother? But Sing Sing is not what we would call “woke.” It is pure enjoyment, especially for those good for nothing actors who ignored it for SAG ensemble. What is wrong with you folks anyway? Sing Sing is a movie about the power of art. It is about prisoners who use Shakesepare, theater and acting to find some meaning in their miserable lives. It’s great. And yet, here we are. It didn’t make it onto the PGA’s list and it probably won’t get in for Best Picture, which is a shame.
I sobbed like a toddler watching this movie and I came away loving it. I wish it did better. It is returning to theaters so maybe people will have a chance to actually see it.
So here’s the thing, Oscar voters. There is only one way to get Sing Sing in. You have to put it at number one. It can’t lay low at #8 or #9. It has to be right at the top. Don’t go putting movies you like at the top that you know are safe, like A Complete Unknown. No. Push Sing Sing to the top spot and maybe it has a chance.
I am disturbed that Sing Sing slipped through the cracks but it’s not the only one. Thankfully, the PGA voters saw fit to nominate what is easily among the best films of the year which has inexplicably been absent for much of this season and that is September 5.
September 5 was once Scott Feinberg’s #1 prediction for Best Picture. Then it dropped completely off the map. Why? Because people are cowards, essentially. The same goes for The Apprentice but on the other end of the spectrum. Yet both phobias against both movies reflect the modern day industry almost better than any other. The Apprentice is, so I’ve heard – I haven’t watched it yet, is a moderately tame portrait of Trump that essentially says, “yes he’s an evil fascist racist dictator but he wasn’t always like that.” No reasonable people in this country are going to want to watch anything about Trump made by the industry. They’re done. A ten year obsession is more than enough. The movie they should be making is the one about themselves — that would make a lot of money. But that doesn’t mean The Apprentice should not be in the Oscar race or that actors should be too afraid to talk to Sebastian Stan. What the hell is wrong with everyone? Fear does strange things to people.
September 5th is too hot to touch for many of the screeching activists who scream and yell about the war in Gaza. But now that there’s a cease fire deal, perhaps they can dig around under their clothing and find their balls again. They were just here a minute ago. What happened to them? SQUEEZE. Oh there they are. How can the industry ignore this film? It is so well written, well-acted and lean. It’s exactly the kind of movie Hollywood should be proud to represent. No, it won’t get you a private dinner with Jonathan Glazer or anything but it’s a good story well told.
And I’m not just saying that because they became only the second studio to brave the waters of “cancel culture” and buy a tiny ad on this site. Although that alone would be enough for me to praise them to the high heavens. They put their money where their mouths are to stand up for and behind people to have the right to say whatever they want and to vote for whomever they think best represents their interests. So yeah, I am rooting for the brave people who work in an industry paralyzed by fear and cowardice. I hope September 5th gets a well-deserved Best Picture, Best Screenplay and Best Editing nomination, at the very least.
But you have to put that movie at NUMBER ONE if you want it to get in. So if there are any ballots still outstanding, remember September 5th. Right now, it might get replaced by Nickel Boys, which has become the darling of Film Twitter and the critics. Like The Brutalist, it’s a work of art that is really hard to watch, not because of the subject matter but because of how it was directed. But no one will complain if Nickel Boys gets in. It is surely worthy of recognition.
I know enough not to make a play for Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths for Best Picture. It won’t get in. If the actors snub Marianne Jean-Baptiste I will never stop bitching about it as long as I live. Never. Hopefully the BAFTA contingent will help push her through to a well-deserved nomination.
I would put Civil War in the list of movies that slipped through the cracks. It wasn’t my favorite movie, that’s for sure, but like The Apprentice it does reflect the reality of how so many on the Left feel at this moment in time. It was also seen by more people than many of the consensus picks.
So let’s look at the major categories and what the consensus is.
Best Picture
We’re still waiting on the PGA – but it probably won’t be that hard to predict it. Here is how the charts are looking at the moment:
For the most part, most Oscar noms come from one of these groups. They rarely just show up, although sometimes they do. I can only think of two in the preferential ballot era – Amour, which had the support of the actors and the directors, and The Blind Side, which apparently won over the acting branch enough to push it through. Remember, it has to land at NUMBER ONE to get in. Otherwise, it won’t.
At the moment, September 5 has only a Globe nod to push it through. Another film showing up is Luca Guadagnino’s Challengers (has to be a number one pick or it won’t get in) and considering he made two different films this year, and Queer isn’t really showing up as often, Challengers is a good pick to push through and a film lots of people saw.
Best Actress
Pamela Anderson, Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Nicole Kidman, Fernanda Torres and Angelina Jolie are all being sidelined so the industry can make history with Karla Sofia Gascon who, at best, is a supporting player in Emilia Perez. It is mind-boggling and yet, here we are. I make a pitch for you to defy the consensus (you won’t, you can’t, I know) and maybe think about actresses who have worked their entire careers to get to this place and who can’t just show up one day and have the world at her feet because she is a symbol for how Hollywood wants to see itself. On the one hand, it’s a great year for veterans like Demi Moore and Pam Anderson. On the other hand, what does Marianna Jean-Baptiste have to do by now, people? This is your last chance. If you’re looking for a way to vote – pick her. She deserves it.
Best Actor
When it comes to Best Actor, SAG mostly rules. If you are predicting, go with the SAG-5. Are there any that might break up the consensus? I think Daniel Craig might be the weak link here and that Sebastien Stan might have a real shot at getting in. I would love to see Hugh Grant invited to the Oscars because he’s funny and he would say great things on the red carpet. Do I think he deserves a nomination because of that? I don’t know. I would think Stan has more of what it takes to push through. He is, after all, playing Donald Trump who just won the Electoral College and the popular vote. Though the Trump hysteria weaves through many films this year, it would be fitting looking back in history if the guy playing him also got an Oscar nom.
Supporting Actor
Here we see that Clarence Maclin in Sing Sing is battling with perhaps Jeremy Strong for The Apprentice (though he probably gets in) or Guy Pearce for The Brutalist. All of these are strong choices and it’s hard to pick. But if you want to defy the consensus and not choose what everyone else is already voting for you, you can take your pick. Me, I would have a hard time choosing between them but I’d probably flip to Clarence Maclin because he really was in prison and thus, his performance means more to me.
Supporting Actress
Supporting Actress is a hot mess. Just a hot mess. The only actress I think I’d want to push for here would be Margaret Qualley who is the second half of Demi Moore’s performance and is arguably the leading role. She is just brilliant in it and absolutely deserving. But she won’t get in if you don’t vote for her. So heads up that she might miss.
Best Director
There are lots of choices here but it will likely come down to Mangold vs. Fargeat and to me there is no contest here. He made a good movie. It doesn’t offend. It’s perfectly fine. It’s good. It’s a nice tribute to the folk scene and why Dylan didn’t fit. But The Substance is one for the ages. It might be one of the best films ever made. I don’t even have to make the argument that she should get in because she’s a woman. She deserves it. There are others that people would say should get in like RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys and I can’t argue with any of those. But if you’re looking to break up the consensus, now you see what will happen if you just vote for what everyone else is voting for.
I could go on but I think this is long enough. Good luck, Oscar voters. I hope you can find your way through the brutal screener pile.