NextGen Oscarwatcher’s Final Nomination Predictions

Here it is. After a long couple of months and films releasing, people reacting, and precursors revealing, it has finally come to make the final calls regarding what *I think* will be nominated in each respective category. This might not be my overall “final predix” as Sasha and I might post our predictions the day before the nominations are revealed, but this is where I am currently. Let’s get started

Best Picture

Like most years, there is a solid top eight that seems fairly assured to get in with a lineup of ten. Those being

• The Brutalist
• Anora
• Conclave
• Emilia Perez
• A Complete Unknown
• The Substance
• Wicked
• Dune Part 2

Truthfully, any of these eight missing would be a shocking and utterly cataclysmic snub on the morning. Onto the final two slots, it really does seem to boil down to four films

• September 5 (PGA/Globe nominee)
• A Real Pain (PGA/Globe nominee)
• Sing Sing (CCA nominee)
• Nickel Boys (CCA nominee)

The rule of thumb would probably be to choose one of the nominees from PGA and one passion choice for the tenth slot. Though the CCA lineup of Sing Sing/Nickel Boys seems tempting, I am hedging my bets and going with A Real Pain/Nickel Boys. Very close race between the four of them

• The Brutalist
• Anora
• Emilia Perez
• Conclave
• A Complete Unknown
• The Substance
• Wicked
• Dune Part 2
• Nickel Boys
• A Real Pain

Alts: Sing Sing, September 5

Best Director

Let’s talk about a category that, truthfully, everyone loves to talk about. There seems to be a solid top four in the category that has been incredibly consistent across all the major precursors, those being

• Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
• Sean Baker, Anora
• Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
• Edward Berger, Conclave

For the longest time, I have been theorizing about the possibility that one of these four could miss (akin to a Paul Greengrass snub for Captain Phillips or Bradley Cooper missing for A Star Is Born). However, not only have these four filmmakers shown up everywhere, but each of their projects have yet to hit a road bump in nominations or overall presence. It will most likely come down to that fifth slot, and that is between two contenders.

• Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (BAFTA/GG/CCA)
• James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (DGA)

That fact is that DGA never matches five for five, and with the more international voting body growing, that seems less and less likely to occur. Though it might seem premature to say this is sure to happen, I would be shocked if Fargeat did not make the five, and the writing is one the walls for this swap-out to happen. Justice to RaMell Ross and Payal Kapadia, whose films should be in the conversation to be nominated here. But you never know what this branch will do, so there is still hope.

            Final Best Director Prediction

• Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
• Sean Baker, Anora
• Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
• Edward Berger, Conclave
• Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Alt: James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

Best Actor in a Leading Role

Akin to Director and Picture, there are four locks here that have hit every precursor and have shown hardly any weakness throughout the season

• Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
• Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
• Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
• Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

It really does come down to that fifth slot, and roughly two people are duking it out for that placement.

• Daniel Craig, Queer (SAG/CCA/GG)
• Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (BAFTA/GG)

This is where you have to weigh your options and who has hit where/how indicative it is. Craig missing BAFTA would seem lethal to his chances, but getting in at SAG is a big plus. Stan getting nominated for Globe and BAFTA is noticeable, but chances are his film might not be one Academy voters are so keen on viewing. Maybe its personal bias or vibes, but my gut has been telling me this whole season that Craig is the fifth slot, and he is the one I am sticking with.

Final Best Actor Prediction:

• Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
• Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
• Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
• Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
• Daniel Craig, Queer

Alt: Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Best Actress In A Leading Role

There is a general consensus (not one I feel absolute sure about at the moment) regarding four slots in this category. Those being

• Demi Moore, The Substance
• Mikey Madison, Anora
• Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
• Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

No one is denying the strength of these four performances throughout the season. All contenders here have hit the major precursors, are in Best Picture nominees, and have genuine passion. However, this is also the category that has the most contenders on the outside looking in.

• Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (GG Drama WINNER)
• Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (GG/SAG)
• Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (CCA/BAFTA)
• Angelina Jolie, Maria (CCA/GG)

It’s roughly four people fighting it out for one slot, perhaps two. This is undoubtedly always the most exciting category, but it is also one that is prone to massive heartbreak when it comes to snubs. As hard as it is to predict this, I have always had this terrible feeling that Erivo is on the trajectory of hitting every precursor and missing (akin to Margot Robbie for Barbie). Fernanda Torres seems poised for a nom after a memorable televised speech and strong word of mouth recently. For the last slot, due to another potential nomination in a little bit, I have a gut feeling The Last Showgirl is this year’s NYAD and will receive two acting categories that film twitter won’t be too happy about. The hardest above the line category to predict is going to be one where contenders are unfortunately left off, and this is what my gut is telling me.

Best Actress Final Prediction:

• Demi Moore, The Substance
• Mikey Madison, Anora
• Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
• Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
• Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

Alt: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Best Supporting Actor

Three actors have hit all the major precursors, and it would once again, be a surprise if any of them were snubbed this Thursday

• Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
• Yura Borisov, Anora
• Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

After this, it is probably safe to assume the rest of the lineup is found in the BAFTA six, where the following three people are present

• Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (BAFTA, GG, CCA)
• Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (CCA, BAFTA)
• Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (GG, SAG, BAFTA)

This might be personal bias, but I would give the edge to Pearce and Maclin on the basis that their films are closer to Best Picture than The Apprentice but it is still fairly possible for the latter to make it in, unfortunately at the expense of Maclin most likely.

Best Supporting Actor Final Prediction:

• Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
• Yura Borisov, Anora
• Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
• Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
• Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

Alt: Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Best Supporting Actress

Just two performances have hit all major precursors, and both are looked at as the respective frontrunners to win the category outright

• Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
• Ariana Grande-Butera, Wicked

After this is where it becomes harder to really read what is occurring. SAG and BAFTA have very little overlap, but it probably comes down to four people for the final three slots

• Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl (SAG, BAFTA)
• Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (GG, BAFTA)
• Isabelle Rossellini, Conclave (GG, CCA, BAFTA)
• Selena Gomez, Emilia Perez (GG, BAFTA)

Following up on my read about The Last Showgirl, I genuinely believe that the academy is resonating with Coppola’s film, and its supposed “emotional resonance” when it comes to the subject matter. Curtis is a previous winner, and my gut instinct is pointing towards the film peaking at the exact right time. Jones and Rossellini, especially the later, feel more vulnerable than they should be, but Best Picture nominations will probably carry them over the finish line. Essentially its BAFTA minus Gomez, but this category could easily throw a loop if they nominate someone out of left field.

Best Supporting Actress Final Prediction:

• Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
• Ariana Grande-Butera, Wicked
• Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
• Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
• Isabelle Rossellini, Conclave

Alt: Selena Gomez, Emilia Perez

Best Original Screenplay

There is a solid top four in this respective category as well, one that has felt remarkably stable for the past few months.

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Real Pain
• The Substance

From then on, there is one slot that feels up in the air between most likely two films fighting it out.

• September 5 (PGA nominee, CCA, not eligible for WGA)
• Challengers (WGA, CCA)

Prior to Thursday I would have gone with something obscure like All We Imagine As Light, but if I had to guess post-PGA, Tim Fehlbaum’s screenplay for September 5 feels correct as a lone screenplay nominee.

Best Original Screenplay Final Prediction

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Real Pain
• The Substance
• September 5

Alt: Challengers

Best Adapted Screenplay

Perhaps only rivaled by Best Director, Best Adapted Screenplay seems to have a very solid top five for the category, with those being

• Conclave
• Emilia Perez
• A Complete Unknown
• Nickel Boys
• Sing Sing

Each of these five films have hit either BAFTA or WGA (if they were eligible) and are plausible Best Picture nominees. One could argue a supposed number 6 would be something like Linklater’s Hitman or Wicked but this feels solid

Best Adapted Screenplay Final Prediction

• Conclave
• Emilia Perez
• A Complete Unknown
• Nickel Boys
• Sing Sing

Alt: Hitman

For the remainder of the categories, rather than go into analysis one by one, it feels best to just list the top five, and the alternates.

Best International Feature

• Emilia Perez (France)
• I’m Still Here (Brazil)
• Kneecap (Ireland)
• The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Germany)
• Flow (Latvia)

Alt: Vermiglio (Italy)

Best Animated Feature

• The Wild Robot
• Flow
• Inside Out 2
• Memoir of a Snail
• Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl

Alt: Moana 2

Best Documentary Feature

• Sugarcane
• Daughters
• Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat
• Porcelain War
• No Other Land

Alt: Blackbox Diaries

Best Cinematography

• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Dune Part 2
• Nosferatu
• Maria

Alt: The Girl with the Needle

Best Editing

• Conclave
• Emilia Perez
• Anora
• A Complete Unknown
• The Substance

Alt: Dune Part 2, The Brutalist, and/or Challengers

Best Production Design

• Wicked
• The Brutalist
• Dune Part 2
• Nosferatu
• Gladiator II

Alt: Conclave

Best Costume Design

• Wicked
• Gladiator II
• Conclave
• Nosferatu
• A Complete Unknown

Alt: Maria and/or Dune Part 2

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

• The Substance
• Wicked
• Emilia Perez
• Nosferatu
• A Different Man

Alt: Dune: Part 2 and/or Waltzing with Brando

Best Visual Effects

• Dune: Part 2
• Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
• Better Man
• Wicked
• Mufasa: The Lion King

Alt: Gladiator II

Best Sound

• A Complete Unknown
• Dune: Part 2
• Wicked
• Gladiator II
• Blitz

Alt: Emilia Perez

Best Score

• The Brutalist
• Conclave
• Emilia Perez
• Challengers
• Wicked

Alt: The Wild Robot and The Room Next Door

Best Original Song

• El Mal from Emilia Perez
• Mi Camino from Emilia Perez
• The Journey from The Six Triple Eight
• Harper and Will Go West from Will & Harper
• Kiss the Sky from The Wild Robot

Alt: Compress/Repress from Challengers

Best Documentary Short

• Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
• Incident
• The Only Girl in the Orchestra
• Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
• Instruments of a Beating Heart

Alt: Chasing Roo

Best Animated Short

• Me
• A Bear Named Wojtek
• Wander to Wonder
• In the Shadow of the Cypress
• Yuck!

Alt: Maybe Elephants

Best Live Action Short

• The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
• An Orange from Jaffa
• Room Taken
• The Masterpiece
• A Lien

Alt: Anuja

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