2025 Oscar Predictions: One Final Look at How the Nominations Might Go

I know you are all waiting to see what I think about the Oscar nominations. Just kidding, there are about a bazillion people out there offering their takes. They’re everywhere. You certainly don’t need to know mine. But I’ll give them to you anyway.

We arrive in 2024 at the bleakest point in the Oscars since I’ve been covering them, and yes, that includes the COVID year. It isn’t so much that there aren’t good movies this year—although finding the really good ones is not easy. Hollywood and the Oscars aren’t so much about movies as they are about defining the film industry as they wish to be seen.

Unfortunately, the Oscar industry I helped build is a completely gamed system. There is very little wiggle room for surprises. We pretty much know how this is going to go, with maybe one or two possibilities. And that makes it all much more dull than it needs to be. However, the only way there will ever be any surprises is if the public is brought back into the equation so that it’s no longer about the bloggers, the critics, and the publicists.

The Academy will do their best, given the dire situation they’re in right now in a variety of ways, the least of which are the LA fires which has meant they will nix the song performances from the Oscars and instead honor the firefighters.

The show will go on. They’ll make sure of it. Maybe it will be great. Who knows. Either way, let’s get on with it, shall we?

Let me say at the outset that, once again, the short films upstage the feature films. I’m not really sure why that is but from the Documentary to the Live Action to the Animated, if you’re feeling despairing about the lack of good storytelling, as I am, watch the shorts. They’re all so good. Maybe we’re moving into an era where a shorter format, not a longer one, is the way to go, especially if movie theaters become a thing of the past, then length doesn’t really matter anymore.

Best Picture

It probably won’t be that hard to predict Best Picture since they have expanded to ten slots (they should go back to five). Four films could get in, and Scott Kernen discussed those very well in his latest Nextgen column.  The three “on the bubble” are:

Sing Sing
A Real Pain
Nickel Boys
September 5

On September 5, A Real Pain and Nickel Boys landed at the Globes.  But on September 5, I got into the PGA. Only A Real Pain made it into the ACE Editors Guild. None landed at SAG.

A Real Pain probably gets in. That leaves us with these:

Anora
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
The Brutalist
Emilia Perez
Wicked
Dune Part Two
The Substance
A Real Pain

That means we have one slot left. What are the forces that could drive a movie? I think, where the Academy is concerned. September 5 might slightly have the edge. Not to put too fine a point on it, but we know that the Academy still has a rather large faction of Jewish voters. I’m half-Jewish on my dad’s side so I can say that without you screaming at me. Then again, the war in Gaza has probably more voters distancing themselves from a movie about Israel.

Nickel Boys is a rough sit. It’s not an easy movie to watch but if enough voters are plugged in to the world of film criticism and heard the film praised, it could definitely make it in. This would be the slot ordinarily reserved for Drive My Car. It’s the one the critics got behind. So would it have just two nominations for Screenplay and Picture, maybe Director? Not sure.

Sing Sing is a heartwarming film with two potential acting nominees. If any move can be dragged in at the last minute, it’s the one with acting nominees. But I think, given the strength at the PGA with September 5, that settles it for me.

Anora
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
The Brutalist
Emilia Perez
Wicked
Dune Part Two
The Substance
A Real Pain
September 5
Alt. Nickel Boys

Best Director

BAFTA + DGA, at least before the BAFTA lost its mind, usually results in an Oscar nom. So that gives us:

The last two spots seem to be for Coralie Fargeat for The Substance or James Mangold for A Complete Unknown. This is a really tough one because Fargeat has a lot of momentum but people really love A Complete Unknown. It is nearly universally beloved. Fargeat has Globes, BAFTA but not DGA. I almost want to predict both Mangold and Fargeat, but I do not know which other names to drop. However, I won’t be surprised to see it go that way, and we could see a shock in the Best Director category, but for now, I’ll stick with the status quo.

Best Actress

SAG to Oscar in this category usually misses at least one and I’m afraid that one will likely be Pamela Anderson. I could be wrong but I figure there are many actresses vying for the available slots and she might drop. So that means we have the four mostly assured nominees:

Mikey Madison, Anora
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Demi Moore, The Substance
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez

As I’ve said before, Gascon is in this race under false pretenses. She is only there because she is transgender. It’s not a great performance and it’s not a great movie – it has its moments but overall, it fizzles in the last part. Gascon is fine but this is really just a way to inject politics where art should be.

Now, four actresses are competing for the one slot. I am hoping that it goes to Marianne Jean-Baptiste for Hard Truths. So:

Mikey Madison, Anora
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Demi Moore, The Substance
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
Alt. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl

Best Actor

This category is competitive for the win but not the nomination, not as much as Best Actress. The locks right now are:

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Which only leaves on slot and it could go to Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice or Daniel Craig for Queer.

Daniel Craig has the trifecta of Globes, Critics Choice and SAG. That feels nearly rock solid to me. The only thing he missed was BAFTA where he should have landed, given that he’s a Brit and all. Stan plays Trump so that seems like something that feels timely. I guess my hesitation here is that people have an aversion to watching that movie so I wonder…Not to mention, Stan is also in A Different Man, which might slightly cut into his vote. I could be wrong but that’s my guess. Given that Daniel Craig had such strong early word of mouth, I guess I’ll go in that direction, even though it gives me a 5/5 with SAG.

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Daniel Craig, Queer
Alt. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Supporting Actress

This category is a hot mess. Now, with Jamie Lee Curtis suddenly appearing in the last act, we have no idea how it will turn out except to say that Jamie Lee Curtis is very popular in the industry and the whole gang of them will vote for her so we know she’s in. But what of the rest of them?

We only have two solids: Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez and Ariana Grande, Wicked. With Jamie Lee, that leaves two slots. So follow the movie. Which is more popular? Two films are popular – A Complete Unknown and Conclave.

That might mean those who pop up here or there like Danielle Deadwyler for The Piano Lesson or Margaret Qualley for the Substance might not land — or might. Then there is Felicity Jones for The Brutalist also pushing through – and might get some of the BAFTA vote. I’ll probably go with:

Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl
Alt. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown, Margaret Qualley, the Substance

Supporting Actor

The three locks are:

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Yura Borisov, Anora
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

That leaves us with two slots and those on the bubble are:

Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing

I think the mighty Denzel could swing an Oscar nod here, especially if Gladiator II makes it into any other categories. Yes, he missed SAG and BAFTA but the Oscars are a little different. So I’ll go:

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Yura Borisov, Anora
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Denzel Washington, Gladiator II
Alt. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

And the rest:

Original Screenplay
The Substance
Anora
A Real Pain
The Brutalist
September 5

Adapted Screenplay
Conclave
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing
A Complete Unknown
The Wild Robot

Cinematography
Nosferatu
Dune: Part Two
The Brutalist
Emilia Perez
A Complete Unknown

Editing
Anora
Conclave
Emilia Perez
Challengers
A Complete Unknown

Production Design
Wicked
The Brutalist
Dune Part Two
Conclave
Nosferatu

Sound
Wicked
Dune Part Two
Gladiator II
A Complete Unknown
The Wild Robot

Costumes
Wicked
Nosferatu
Conclave
Maria
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice

Visual Effects
Dune Part Two
Better Man
Gladiator II
Wicked
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Original Score
Challengers
Conclave
The Brutalist
The Wild Robot
Emilia Perez

Original Song
El Mal, Emilia Perez
Compress/Repress, Challengers
Harper and Will Go West, Will & Harper
Mi Camino, Emilia Perez
Forbidden Road, Better Man

Makeup and Hair
The Substance
Wicked
Nosferatu
Dune Part 2
A Different Man

Documentary Feature
Sugarcane
Dahomey
Daughters
Eno
No Other Land

International Feature
France, Emilia Pérez
Germany, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
Brazil, I’m Still Here
Latvia, Flow
Ireland, Kneecap

Live Action Short
The Ice Cream Man
Anuja
The Compatriot
Room Taken
I’m Not a Robot

Documentary Short
Incident
Keeper
Makayla’s Voice: A Letter to the World
Once upon a Time in Ukraine
A Swim Lesson

Animated Short
A Bear Named Wojtek
Bottle George
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Au Revoir Mon Monde
Wander to Wonder