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2025 Oscars: When Making History is Manufactured and Not Earned

It's Beginning to Look a Lot Like Weinstein...

Sasha Stone by Sasha Stone
January 23, 2025
in 2025 Oscars, BEST PICTURE, featured
4

It was 2010 and I’d just seen the movie I knew was the best film of the year. No, it wasn’t The King’s Speech, it was The Social Network. I learned a hard lesson that year. I learned that there is a thing called a “kicking a puppy” movie. That is, the more you attack it, the better it does. The more you hit it with charges of “it’s terrible,” or “it’s cliched,” or it’s “ordinary” the more voters feel protective of it. In other words, it’s Teflon. No one did this better than Harvey Weinstein. But the reason he did so well wasn’t because of anything he did. It was his strategist, Lisa Taback, who now works for Netflix.

Up until now, Netflix hasn’t had a “kicking a puppy” movie. That explains why the audience score at Rotten Tomatoes for Emilia Perez has been left untouched. Back in the day when it was The Power of the Dog getting trashed, the numbers shifted slightly to reflect a less hated movie. No one really talked about it, though. Now, a low score of 32% with a “kicking a puppy” movie only helps Netflix and Emilia Perez make the case that all of those terrible people out there criticizing Emilia Perez are bigots, transphobes and homophobes. That’s a perfect place for any Oscar contender to be. You can’t attack the movie because it is like kicking a puppy.

It doesn’t matter if people in Mexico feel it doesn’t represent them, or that it was snubbed at GLAAD. Or that it just isn’t very good. Because when it comes to a puppy, none of that stuff actually matters. The only thing that matters is the puppy. For transgender women, they get to be a puppy instead of a boring type of person who can be easily attacked. That is the advantage of being among the most protected groups on the Left.

The idea being, that they are harassed, attacked, murdered, etc. so they must be elevated and to criticize them becomes blasphemy. I was just recently attacked by someone for even daring to criticize the movie by saying the only reason Karla Sofia Gascon is able to leapfrog over veteran actresses like Marianne Jean-Baptiste or Nicole Kidman or Angelina Jolie is for the singular reason that she is a transgender person. No woman could do the same. They couldn’t just show up and get nominated just for being who they are.

But as I said, been there, done that with the Weinstein strategy here. Your best bet is to resign in defeat and accept that they won the minute they pulled the right card for the right moment. If I say The King’s Speech is a masterpiece compared to Emilia Perez, which is probably true, no one is going to listen. They’re just going to default into “You’re SO MEAN!”

The truth is mean. It’s mean and it’s harsh and it’s unavoidable. I wish I could say that things would be different. Oh, how I wish I could. But this the moment, at least for me, that the Oscar voters have shown their disdain for the public but also the American studio system. Imagine the second year in a row where two films from the International Feature category also land in Best Picture, taking slots away from A Real Pain, September 5, and Sing SIng. Why? They have a category. Why can’t they be in that category? Why can’t there be any way to recognize American studio films to help, you know, salvage a collapsing empire maybe? Revive a corpse? Save movie theaters? Just spit-balling here.

This marks something like the end because it says that the Oscars will now be going “international” and on streaming, specifically Netflix, which is also international. How convenient for them, eh? Yeah, shame about Hollywood, though. Shame about movie theaters. Shame about all of us who love them.

My initial analysis is that they’re depressing, as depressing as I’ve ever seen them. Even the short film category choices are disappointing from an array of much better films that didn’t get nominated. I’m not sure what these Oscar nominations celebrate except an industry that is, to quote Annie Hall, like an island onto themselves.

The truly sad part, and I hate to admit this because it’s written by a friend of mine, Steve Pond, whose headline in The Wrap only adds insult to injury when he pretends Trump or anyone on the Right gives one single tiny shit about the Oscars or the nominations. I can promise you, and I know for a fact, they do not. Get over yourselves and please do it quickly, the entire film industry rests on your getting a grip and joining the real world again. Come out of your fear bunker.

Nevermind the secondary fact here that these outlets continue to desperately cling to Trump, to hump leg, if you’ll excuse the disgusting imagery, this endless, decades-long obsession with Trump has brought us here.

I’ll give you an example of what normies think of Hollywood, the Oscars and this headline:

I hate to be the bearer of bad news here but one side lost the election in an historic, humiliating defeat. Do you think that side has any bragging rights at all left? Do you think Trump or any of his supporters that just won the election are going to care about Emilia Perez winning at the Oscars? If anything, all it will do is vindicate what they already think about the Oscars — that it’s a insulated, isolated woketopia that they want nothing to do with. Please, for the love of all things holy, people, GET A GRIP.

I know I am speaking about things that no one else on the Oscar beat would dare about. They’re just out there chattering away about this and that. Fernanda Torres might win Best Actress they say. How exciting that Jeremy Strong and Kieran Culkin are both nominated they say. It’s kine of like listening to the band as the Titanic sinks. It’s like half glorious, half apocalyptic?

I find the nominations to be proof that there probably is not a lot we can do to save the Oscars or the industry. It turns out that adding 3,000 new international voters would ultimately mean that the Oscars will now be more international, not local. These aren’t voters who care about bringing back the American film industry. Why would they? Academy voters from the old days would only be let in if they were somehow invited in because of their accomplishments, as opposed to necessary voters to change up the demographics. It is what it is.

I know from tangling with the Weinstein/Taback machine that there is no point in getting in their way. This is a “please proceed, governor” kind of thing. It’s another huff off the morphine for the voters and the rapture, my god, the rapture in MAKING HISTORY!

The question, can any other movie win? I don’t know. Probably not, unless give them a hit of morphine and not many of them that are nominated do except Emilia Perez. It’s their teary standing ovation at SAG! It’s there “yes, we didn’t just lose the election — and the popular vote — America doesn’t hate us, they love us! Look at us! Who wouldn’t love us! We are GOOD PEOPLE DOING GOOD THING and making history with our votes! We matter!”

Does anyone really think Emilia Perez is better than Conclave? Anora? The Substance? The Brutalist? No. But this is Academy history, right? It’s playing out right before our eyes. It’s the reverse Brokeback.  It’s the Crash we can see coming from a mile away. It will be that movie people say years from now that it won over all of these other movies. The upside to that is, but for a few films like The Departed and No Country for Old Men, it’s almost better not to win Best Picture. Unless you are Netflix and then you want it really really bad.

So good luck, Netflix! I hope you finally get what you have wanted for so very long.

I’ll have my analysis and predictions up tomorrow.

Tags: 97th Oscars
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Oscar Nomination Predictions

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Best Picture
  • 1.
    Hamnet
    88.9%
  • 2.
    One Battle After Another
    88.9%
  • 3.
    Sinners
    88.9%
  • 4.
    Marty Supreme
    88.9%
  • 5.
    Sentimental Value
    88.9%
Best Director
  • 1.
    Paul Thomas Anderson
    One Battle After Another
    88.9%
  • 2.
    Chloe Zhao
    Hamnet
    100.0%
  • 3.
    Jafar Panahi
    It Was Just An Accident
    77.8%
  • 4.
    Ryan Coogler
    Sinners
    55.6%
  • 5.
    Joachim Trier
    Sentimental Value
    66.7%
Best Actor
  • 1.
    Timothée Chalamet
    Marty Supreme
    77.8%
  • 2.
    Ethan Hawke
    Blue Moon
    77.8%
  • 3.
    Leonardo DiCaprio
    One Battle After Another
    66.7%
  • 4.
    Michael B. Jordan
    Sinners
    55.6%
  • 5.
    Wagner Maura
    The Secret Agent
    55.6%
Best Actress
  • 1.
    Jessie Buckley
    Hamnet
    77.8%
  • 2.
    Cynthia Erivo
    Wicked For Good
    66.7%
  • 3.
    Renate Reinsve
    Sentimental Value
    66.7%
  • 4.
    Amanda Seyfried
    The Testament of Ann Lee
    55.6%
  • 5.
    Rose Byrne
    If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
    44.4%
Best Supporting Actor
  • 1.
    Stellan Skarsgård
    Sentimental Value
    77.8%
  • 2.
    Sean Penn
    One Battle After Another
    66.7%
  • 3.
    Paul Mescal
    Hamnet
    66.7%
  • 4.
    Jacob Elordi
    Frankenstein
    55.6%
  • 5.
    Benicio Del Toro
    One Battle After Another
    44.4%
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