You can have the Buzzmeter delivered to your inbox by subscribing here.
Here is how Google AI describes the situation the Academy now finds itself in:
“An unstoppable force meets an immovable object” is a classic paradox, meaning it presents a situation where two opposing concepts, an unstoppable force and an immovable object, are theoretically put against each other, creating a situation with no logical answer as to what would happen; essentially, it represents a contradiction where neither can prevail over the other because the very nature of each negates the existence of the other.
The first thing you should know about this year’s Oscar race is that two International Feature films have landed in the Best Picture category for the second year in a row. That is a clear sign to the Academy that it’s time to bring Best Picture down to five and change the rules for International Features so it goes to the filmmakers or the producers, or however they do it. If they pass up this opportunity, they are done.
And when I say done, I don’t mean the Oscars will end. They will have no choice but to forever live on streaming as they will have absolutely no connection to the public they once catered to. No one will watch the show. You can describe it however you’d like, and you probably will. Those rationalizations will go something like this, “Americans are stupid” or “Don’t be xenophobic.” However, there must be some connection between the Oscars and the American film industry, or they have lost their purpose and are now destructive to the American studio system, a system they once existed to fortify.
This might be my last year running this website, but it won’t be my last year writing about the Oscars. I promise you, I will still write about them. I just can’t play the game anymore. It isn’t just for financial reasons (it costs me $500 per month just to rent the server), but it’s also my growing disdain for the community that has strangled the life out of the whole purpose of the Oscars at all. It has become a group therapy session at best, a cult of social justice at worst.
Believe it or not, the Oscars once made sense. But now, they exist in such a small, rarified, utopian diorama that they are rendered completely irrelevant. That’s already where they were before heading into this year’s ceremony. But in their rush to “make history” in the Best Actress category, they have undone so much of the progress made for women, especially Black women, who have had to fight for decades to even have careers at all.
Emilia Perez in the International Feature category makes sense. But 13 nominations for this film make no sense. True, the film played in enough countries (except the United States) to earn $11 million, which is, believe it or not, a decent take for an “Oscar movie” now. It has no purpose here except to bring in subscribers to Netflix. That’s its entire purpose of being, oh, and its desire to push the transgender ideology on a public that is growing tired of having to deal with this every day of their lives for a community that represents 1-5% of the population.
Of course, the unstoppable force is not Emilia Perez. That is the immovable object. The unstoppable force is the rising frustration among those who have been silenced around the transgender issue, for starters, but also what has become of the Oscar race overall.
The transgender issue has been pushing into the awards race for a few years now. I call it the Wheel of Oppression, which began when I wrote about the lack of women and Black winners. But after those problems were “solved,” – which means they simply adjusted the rules to allow for “equity” in various categories, eliminating the need for higher standards.
But again and again we saw examples that the Academy simply ignored, like Jennifer Hudson in Respect, which ticked off all of the boxes and featured a great role for Hudson. She was shut out. Why? It didn’t give the mostly white voters the high they desperately needed to feel like they matter and have a collective purpose. It didn’t scratch that itch, like Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths also didn’t. A movie about a family and their ordinary problems wasn’t high that they got watching, say, a transgender person transition in a movie and then get blown up in a trunk — I mean, the movie is just ridiculous. Interesting but not worthy of this level of awards from the Academy.
The last group on the Wheel of Oppression is the transgender people. That is where the whole movement wound up – that’s where the money is now from fundraising and it’s where the activism is now, it is the last thing they believe they have to fight for. But in the end, what has it done? It’s screwed over women and actresses of color, especially Black women like Marianne Jean-Baptiste who was far more worthy of a nomination than Karla Sofia Gascon.
As we speak, people on TikTok and on X are complaining about Emilia Perez and it’s 13 nominations. They somehow can’t believe that this film has that many. As in:
Even if people feel uncomfortable talking about the transgender issue (because they will be viciously attacked and their careers ruined), they can talk about how this movie now sits alongside other, better movies. You can see that once again, Chicago is in the conversation, being that it was the Weinstein Co. movie up against The Pianist (which starred Adrien Brody). So you might see that same dynamic play out this year, with The Brutalist taking Director and Screenplay and Emilia Perez taking Best Picture.
Emilia Perez is like the monster in The Thing. It kind of looks like a Best Picture winner—it’s dressed up to look like one. But it is, in fact, not one. It has not made a dime in this country and has not been seen by people unless they feel curious enough to check it out on Netflix. This is an Oscar contender that benefits just one ecosystem: streaming.
Chicago, by contrast, and I remember that year well, made money at the box office.
People not only saw it, they remember it to this day. It had big stars in it, and it was universally liked, even if critics did not love it. No one really loves Emilia Perez. Its existence is 100% based on desire to push the political ideology of transgenderism. But even GLAAD and other groups have distanced themselves from it. So, it isn’t so much a film pushed by activists as it is a salve for aching, heartbroken industry voters who feel their sense of purpose draining.
The Oscar voters nominated this film in 13 categories because it’s a musical that’s two nominations for Original Song and in two Best Picture categories, which it should not be. It should be in one or the other and that decision should be made by the producers. Which category would you like to compete in?
By contrast, the Walter Salles film, I’m Still Here, is very good. It is the kind of movie Hollywood used to make back in the 1980s and 1990s. Watching it is a reminder of what very accomplished directors can do. But even that movie belongs in one category or the other, not both.
So you can take the 13 noms and conclude the following:
- The fires meant less people watched movies or even voted at all.
- Hollywood and Oscar bloggers insist upon dumping the World’s Most Depressing Movies Ever Made on Oscar voters. Most of the time, that might work since those who live in an insulated, isolated utopia have become numb. But in a time of trauma, they might not want to marinate in misery, so they just don’t watch the film.
- Lisa Taback is the brilliant publicist behind Netflix. She controls the bloggers and the Penske Empire with lots of cold, hard cash—we’re probably talking millions. If Penske wants anything, it’s money. If money is involved, you will get compliance across the board.
- Money doesn’t impact Oscar voters, but it does impact the trickle-down. People are simply too lazy and too exhausted by the films themselves to bother watching all of them — and honestly I can’t blame them. I have the same problem. There is only so much shaming and naval gazing a person can take.
- It’s been a weak year for movies because Hollywood has become paralyzed by fear and ruled by mass hysteria. They do not stand up for free expression, talented filmmakers, or good ideas. It is a desperately sad situation, and now we’re seeing where all of it ended up.
Box office overall tells the tale. While Will Mavity and others often report Global Box Office, it’s an easy way to pretend that Houston, we don’t have a problem:
So here is how it all shakes down domestically. The first thing you should know is that box office was down 3.8% from last year. We saw bomb after bomb after bomb, from Furiosa to the Fall Guy to Joker Folie a Deux.
Inside Out 2 $653 million
Wicked $468 million
Dune Part Two: $282 million
Gladiator II $172 million
The Wild Robot $143 million
Alien: Romulus $105 million
Nosferatu: $93 million
A Complete Unknown $62 million
Challengers: $50 million
Conclave $31 million
The Substance $16 million
Anora $15 million
Saturday Night $9 million
A Real Pain $8 million
The Brutalist $9 million
Flow $4 million
The Apprentice $4 million
Sing Sing $2 million
September 5 $1.6 million
Nickel Boys $1.5 million
I’m Still Here $454,000
Emilia Perez $0
True, some of these films have already been taken out of theaters and can’t make more money, like Anora, but still. Now just for the fun of it, let’s look at the Chicago year:
The Lord of the Rings: The Two Tours $339 million
Chicago $170 million
Gangs of New York $77 million
The Hours $41 million
The Pianist $32 million
These aren’t that great considering there were much better movies that didn’t get nominated that year, like Panic Room, which made $92 million, and Minority Report, which made $132 million. Maybe it was already the beginning of the end.
What I resent most about the Weinstein machine, and now, the Netflix machine, is that they mastered the art of the “hot house flower,” a way to grow something under artificial conditions that meets the exact needs of the voters, with movies like The Reader or Chocolat, and now, Emilia Perez.
But it’s never been quite as bad as it is now because Weinstein, at least, did care about making money. Netflix does care; it just wants to make it with subscribers. Thus, their standards are not as high as they would be if they had the free market pressure of the box office.
The box office tells a desperately sad tale of people tuning out the kinds of movies the Oscar race pushes. Why, because they’re all film critics who see movies for free and are pampered and coddled by publicists with money and swag. There is no THERE there. There is no public to contend with. If anything, there is disdain for the public now. Why? How does that make this country better, to lock out the Proles? It doesn’t. It makes it far worse.
Only one filmmaker has gotten even close to this, and that’s BJ Novak, who made a movie called Vengeance about the disconnect:
I absolutely loved this movie and marveled at his insight and intelligence for this level of self-examination. I had mostly given up on Hollywood and the Left to get anywhere near the truth but somehow, Novak did. Vengeance is the only Hollywood movie that attempts to understand this moment in American history. It might be a cliched look at red-state and blue-state America, but at least he tries. The point is: we all need culture. We need it as people and we need it as a country. We need universal stories. We need Hollywood to come back to the people.
And don’t come at me with streaming and TV competition. The public will turn out, as we saw with Top Gun Maverick, Oppenheimer, Barbie, etc.
But Hollywood has done exactly the opposite. They have done to the people what they just did to me: you do not belong in our elite club. You should fend for yourself. We will reach across the world to find films Oscar voters will want to watch, or we’ll go fishing at Sundance or Venice or Telluride. YOU, out there in the dark, no longer matter to us unless we can convert you to our way of thinking.
They somehow believe this will work out for them. And I guess Netflix is their forever home—a paradise far, far away from box office or ratings.
So if that’s where all of this has landed. The Oscars will default to their comfort zone, LARPing that the richest and most powerful people in the world are the “resistance.” The majority will hate-watching clips on YouTube. If Emilia Perez wins, all the better. It will give everyone clinging to that last bit of hope that the Oscars did still exist to fortify the American studio system, and all of the great movies it has produced for almost a century, a good reason never to have to pay attention to them ever again.