After months of waiting, the nominations for the 97th Oscar ceremony have been revealed, and, for the most part, the films many thought would do well showed up. There are surprises like other years (I’m Still Here in Best Picture, Berger missing Dir, and Best Picture categories defining above-the-line norms). Still, compared to a few other announcements, it wasn’t that remarkable or insane. If anything, what is chosen is a testament to what the academy is turning into, an organization that recognizes diverse, international artists, one that appeals to a passionate few people, no longer attempting to pander or reflect the generic public (no matter what the producers or people who are behind the industry are attempting to salvage).
The main question now is who the true frontrunners are in the important categories and whether there is a clear frontrunner anymore or if there ever was one.
Best Picture
Talk about a category consistently rocking from one contender to another. What started off as Anora and Conclave for so many people (the passionate, timeless indie vs the relevant, normie studio film) seems to have morphed into Emilia Perez and The Brutalist (the international, emotional issues/advocacy project vs the undeniable filmmaking achievement of the year). It’s an Oscar story that many aren’t fond of (Crash v Brokeback Mountain, Green Book v Roma, and Coda v The Power of the Dog), but, perhaps inexcusably blind to me and a few others, is something that might be proven to be inevitable this entire season. This race is so hard to call because there just isn’t a film this year that checks off all the undeniable boxes (no emotionally resonant juggernaut like EEAAO or filmmaking achievement like Oppenheimer). Whatever wins will clearly be considered a unique BP choice compared to what has usually been prevailing.
Nevertheless, it’s clear which films have momentum RIGHT NOW following nominations: Jacques Audiard’s audacious musical and Brady Corbet’s subversive epic. Will we have a BP/BD split? That remains to be seen.
Frontrunners: Emilia Perez and The Brutalist
Challengers: Anora and Conclave
Best Director
This category could continue a trend with the current frontrunner but may or may not go another direction if the industry just so happens to disagree with the critics. Brady Corbet is the definitive #1 as of NOW, and, if The Brutalist does very well with industry voters, he shouldn’t have any trouble.
Nevertheless, Jacques Audiard is his #2 at the moment based on the strength of Emilia Perez, and if it does potentially win Best Picture, there is a plausible chance that Audiard pulls off a stunning upset (akin to Hooper or Inarritu’s Birdman win, just DGA, and no other precursors seems possible).
Frontrunner: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Challenger: Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez
Best Actor
This race is truly a BRUTAL match between Adrien Brody in The Brutalist and Timothee Chalamet in A Complete Unknown. It’s the youngest winner in this category facing off against the person who would claim that title if he were to win. Both performances have pros going for them (ACU and the Brutalist are loved by this industry, have passion behind them, and resemble the type of performances these voters connect with). Brody will likely take BAFTA and CCA, while Chalamet will likely take SAG. Though my gut tells me the latter is favored to pull it off due to the biopic factor, I am sticking with Adrien Brody for now, as I believe international voters like the movie a tad more than they like Mangold’s film.
Frontrunner: Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Challenger: Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Best Actress
What a rollercoaster this category has been on throughout the year. What started off as a cruise to victory for Mikey Madison (the ingenue from the original BP frontrunner) has become one arguably between the veteran who has paid her dues (Demi Moore) and, possibly, the one who could make history (Karla Sofia Gascon). I would give the edge currently to Moore due to the love The Substance has(plus she has the opportunity to sweep if she pulls off the wins at CCA, SAG, and BAFTA), but if Emilia Perez is possibly WINNING Best Picture, one should not write off Gascon (akin to Blanchett v Yeoh from a few years prior).
Frontrunner: Demi Moore, The Substance
Challenger: Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Best Supporting Actor
It seemed apparent for quite a bit of time that Kieran Culkin would be steamrolling this category with very little room for an upset. Interestingly enough, despite A Real Pain missing Best Picture, there is very little evidence to suggest that he is vulnerable, as he has been winning critics groups, and has hit every precursor. Yura Borisov and Edward Norton are his strongest competition, but neither have really made a dent in this category that gives off the impression that they could overtake him per say. Nevertheless, anything is possible here.
Frontrunner: Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Challenger: Yura Borisov, Anora
Best Supporting Actress
This is still a two-person race between Zoe Saldana and Ariana Grande, two musical performances. However, either due to love for Emilia Perez or the lack of unanimous support for Wicked, the vibes suggest Saldana has the edge here. It is always possible for things to go a certain way we don’t expect, but as of now, this feels akin to a supporting actor with a clear frontrunner.
Frontrunner: Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Challenger: Ariana Grande, Wicked
Best Original Screenplay
The definitive frontrunner this whole season might be fairly unchallenged. Sean Baker’s work on Anora (which resulted in him receiving four nominations) will more likely than not be rewarded SOMEWHERE, and the clear place for that is in this specific category.
Editors Note: Screenplay or Director goes with Best Picture. It’s not likely to occur that Picture and Director split and neither one wins Screenplay.
Frontrunner: Anora
Challenger: The Brutalist
Best Adapted Screenplay
Akin to Best Original Screenplay, once the definitive frontrunner, will also likely go unchallenged the whole season. Peter Straughn’s work in Conclave, though ineligible for WGA, will likely take the BAFTA and Oscar with ease. The only potential challenger would be Emilia Perez or Nickel Boys if it so happens to have some type of resurgence. This is unlikely though.
Frontrunner: Conclave
Challenger: Emilia Perez and Nickel Boys
Here are the remainder of the categories
Best International Feature
Frontrunner: Emilia Perez
Challenger: I’m Still Here
Best Animated Feature
Frontrunner: Flow
Challenger: The Wild Robot
Best Documentary Feature
Frontrunner: No Other Land
Challenger: Sugarcane
Best Editing
Frontrunner: Emilia Perez
Challenger: Any of the five
Best Cinematography
Frontrunner: The Brutalist
Challenger: Dune Part 2
Best Production Design
Frontrunner: Wicked
Challenger: The Brutalist
Best Costume Design
Frontrunner: Wicked
Challenger: Probably none
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frontrunner: The Substance
Challenger: Probably none
Best Sound
Frontrunner: Dune Part 2
Challenger: Any contender
Best Original Score
Frontrunner: The Brutalist
Challenger: Conclave or Emilia Perez
Best Visual Effects
Frontrunner: Dune Part 2
Challenger: None
Best Original Song:
Frontrunner: El Mal
Challenger: Probably none
Best Documentary Short
Frontrunner: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Challenger: Any of the five
Best Animated Short
Frontrunner: Wander to Wonder
Challenger: Any of the five
Best Live Action Short
Frontrunner: The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Challenger: Any of the five
It’s going to be a crazy few weeks ahead of us. If you want to follow me on twitter, the link is here