Oscars 2025: Best Actress – Is it Finally Time for Paloma Diamond to Win?

You might not have heard of Paloma Diamond, unless you use TikTok. Or you’re a fan and you’ve seen all of her movies. She was thrilled to have earned yet another nomination:

@juliansewell #palomadiamond #oscars #oscar #academyawards #actress #hollywood #acting #actor #movie #tv #fyp ♬ original sound – Julian Sewell

The question is not whether Paloma Diamond will win, but rather, whether her challengers are better. Some Tik Tok users have joined in on the debate:

@heartthrobert #palomadiamond #paloma #oscars @Julian Sewell ♬ original sound – Rob Anderson

@grandpasyummytoes #palomadiamond #oscars #bestactress @Julian Sewell #greenscreen ♬ original sound – Lint Licker

@hugeasmammoth.films my take on the best actress nominees #palomadiamond #oscars #oscar2025 #bestactress ♬ original sound – Nirupam

They’ve also discussed why it is Paloma Diamond is so dominant in the Oscars at all – she directed a movie with an actress nominated, she wrote a movie and she stars in a movie? Not everyone is happy about it.

@bodycourage Congratulations to #PalomaDiamond on this year’s nomination. Sending love from London. Love, Sciatica Jones. Also, just finished a chemical peel, apologies for the dry skin. @Julian Sewell #AcademyAwards #juliansewell #Oscars #Hollywood ♬ original sound – Danielle Pinnock

Public opinion seems to be more in favor of Yolanda Fontaine winning for her work in a horror film. Does she really deserve it, though? How can they snub Paloma Diamond AGAIN? How can they face themselves in the morning watching her lose again?

@juliansewell #oscars #oscars2024 #bestactress #palomadiamond #lorelailynch #michellebradleyspencer #daphnecortezon #hollywood #academyawards #oscar #funny #haha #fyp ♬ original sound – Julian Sewell

What does she have to do?

https://www.tiktok.com/@juliansewell/video/7389370056926399762

She’s an incredibly well-studied, serious actress that other actors have gotten advice from many times:

@juliansewell #palomadiamond #paloma #oscar #hollywood #actress #actor #acting #tv #movie #drama #celebrity #fame #90s #fyp ♬ Slowed Jacob and the Stone – 🌃

She was attacked at the Met Gala:

@juliansewell Replying to @Alex #palomadiamond #paloma #metgala #annawintour #met #fashion #hollywood #celebrity #actress #oscar ♬ original sound – Julian Sewell

But in all seriousness, the Oscars really should invite Julian Sewell because it would be the funniest thing ever.

It’s hard to talk about all of this without thinking about Paloma Diamond! But let’s try. The question for Best Actress this year is an interesting one. Imagine this: the Critics Choice ballots were mostly turned in before the Golden Globes where the narratives changed for many of the contenders. So it’s likely we won’t really know the frontrunner just from those awards. We might have to wait for the BAFTA and the SAG to find out if it’s Demi Moore for The Substance, Mikey Madison for Anora or the dark horse, Fernanda Torres.

I believe personally that Madison gave the best performance of the year in Anora, hands down and no question about it. I can’t argue with Demi Moore finally winning after the career she’s had and the work put in for the film. She also has a lot of friends in the Academy so I imagine that will help her. Torres is an interesting contender because she shocked everyone and won the Globes, then followed that with an Oscar nomination.

It would be very unusual for Torres to win without nominations in SAG or BAFTA. But with these new voters, who knows what they’ll do? I expect it will be down to the frontrunner, Demi Moore going up against the underdog, Mikey Madison. Or they might just go all in with virtue signaling and give it to Karla Sofia Gascon. Just go ahead and get it over with, already, if that’s the plan, Hollywood. People are just looking for a reason not to care.

Most likely, this is Demi Moore’s to win, unless voters are repelled by how extreme and gross The Substance is at the end. Her stature in the industry probably overrides that. The Best Actress race is often about who is Cinderella — and Moore is Cinderella. Mikey Madison is too but she doesn’t have the same back story as Moore, whose “Oscar story” is baked into the cake. Everyone loves a comeback.

When people compare this year to the year when all five Best Actress nominees were in Best Picture contenders, it’s important to remember that there is a big difference between five Best Picture nominees and ten. It’s much easier to get in with ten, obviously, so it was a much bigger deal back in 1977.

Let’s look at the Best Picture nominees to see where they line up with acting nominations:

The Brutalist – Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
A Complete Unknown – Best Actor, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Anora – Best Actress, Supporting Actor
Conclave – Best Actor, Supporting Actress
Emilia Pérez – Best Actress, Supporting Actress
Wicked – Best Actress, Supporting Actress
I’m Still Here – Best Actress
The Substance – Best Actress
Nickel Boys
Dune: Part Two – None

In case you have any questions about who dominates the Academy, it’s the actors. But also the International voters who are simpatico with their tastes.

With ten Best Picture nominations, it is extremely rare for an acting winner not to be in one. We can track it, if you’d like, going back to 2009:

2009
The Hurt Locker
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Mo’Nique, Precious
Christoph Walz, Inglourious Basterds

2010
The King’s Speech
Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Natalie Portman, Black Swan
Melissa Leo, Christian Bale, The Fighter

2011
The Artist
Jean DuJardin, The Artist
Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady
Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Octavia Spencer, The Help

[Edit: There was a glitch with this post that caused the last 500 words or so to be dropped. Now restored below. Thanks to our pal “ElioFidelio” for catching the screw up.] – RA

2012
Argo
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Anne Hathaway, Les Miz
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

2013
12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

2014
Birdman
Eddie Redmayne, The Theory of Everything
Julianne Moore, Still Alive
Patricia Arquette, Boyhood
JK Simmons, Whiplash

2015
Spotlight
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Alicia Vikander , The Danish Girl
Brie Larson, Room

2016
Moonlight
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Emma Stone, La La Land
Viola Davis, Fences
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

2017
The Shape of Water
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards
Allison Janney, I, Tonya

2018
Green Book
Olivia Colman, The Favourite
Rami Malek , Bohemian Rhapsody
Mahershala Ali, Green Book
Regina King , If Beale Street Could Talk

2019
The Parasite
Joaquin Phoenix, Joker
Renée Zellweger, Judy
Brad Pitt , Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Laura Dern , Marriage Story

2020
Nomadland
Anthony Hopkins , The Father
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Youn Yuh-jung , Minari

2021
CODA
Will Smith, King Richard
Jessica Chastain, Eyes of Tammy Faye
Troy Kotsur, CODA
Ariana DeBose , West Side Story

2022
Everything, Everywhere All At Once
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Michelle Yeoh, EEAAO
Ke Huy Kwan, EEAAO
Jamie Lee Curtis, EEAAO

2023
Oppenheimer
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers

At best, one of the winners is not in a Best Picture contender. Our frontrunners now are all in Best Picture contenders, so I would not stray from that. For Best Actor, that takes out Sebastian Stan for The Apprentice and Colman Domingo for Sing Sing. But we don’t have that problem in Best Actress. And weirdly enough, all of the Best Supporting Actress nominees are in Best Picture.

There is nothing happening in the Oscar race now that can compare, in any way, to the drama happening on TikTok with Paloma Diamond, via the brilliant and talented Julian Sewell. The Academy would be well advised to contact him and work it in to the ceremony. Lots of people won’t get it but if you know, you know.