The Oscar race has seen better days. Take it from me. I’ve been writing about them, obsessing on them, for half of my life. Were it not for the lifers who still come here and write me nice letters I would assume it has all been a huge waste of time.
Now, the Oscars exist now to mostly pay Jay Penske’s bills. There is trickle down. They pay a lot of people’s bills. It’s an entire ecosystem of bills that need to be paid so the band plays on. Want to know why Emilia Perez has 13 nominations?
This is no big revelation on my part. It’s always been this way. I got into the Oscar game in 1999 because I foolishly believed that there was something more to it. I really did. I looked at the trades back then with all of their splashy FYC ads and I saw what I believed was muted content. They had to write respectfully about the bad movies and they mostly ignored movies that weren’t part of the money train.
I suppose it starts and ends with someone’s ego and how badly they want to win awards. Even back when the Oscars were great that was probably true. After all, there’s a reason people call some movies “Oscar bait.” It is less about studios wanting to make money — that’s been taken out of it long ago — and more about the people who still want to win Oscars and all the money that will be spent to achieve that goal.
Top Gun Maverick was the best movie of the year in 2022 and it should have won Best Picture. You can’t get anyone that covers the industry, or the tiny community of Oscar watchers, to agree with that but it seems clear to me that everything might have collapsed that year, not this year, even with the Barbenheimer phenom bringing it all back home for a second or two.
Everything, Everywhere All At Once winning as big as it did tells you a lot about what the Oscars are now. Almost no one will remember that movie. Everyone will remember and rewatch Top Gun Maverick. It isn’t that Everything Everywhere didn’t do well for what it was. It did. It bedazzled movie goers in an unexpected way but is that really enough to win Best Picture of the Year? No.
When I first started this website I had just one question. Why didn’t Citizen Kane, which everyone remembers and believes is one of the greatest films ever made and sat atop the Sight and Sound list for many decades (until Woketacular took it down) not win Best Picture? How could what most people thought was the greatest film of all time not have won in the year it was released?
It turns out that it wasn’t that big of a mystery. Follow the money. Orson Welles was targeted as a “Communist,” and thus, there was a whiff of un-Americanism about a movie that took down such a powerful man as William Randolph Hearst. But what a great movie that is because when you want to have a voice that resonates then, and now, you must be willing to poke a stick at a rattlesnake.
Look at what just happened to me, how an entire industry shunned me because of a tweet that was a joke. They didn’t shun me because of the tweet. They shunned me because Rebecca Keegan told all of them that I was MAGA now. That gossip was pure gold in a community paralyzed with fear heading into an election where all of the most powerful people in Hollywood were about to get a pie thrown in their face when the American people rose up and said we don’t care what you think about anything anymore. You had your chance, four years of Democrat rule — more than that. 16 of the last 20 and we’re JUST DONE. Look no further than the Oscar race, and what the Oscars have become, to mirror back that reality.
So MAGA now is like Communism then. It’s seen as, in the minds of the powerful and wealthy aristocracy in this country, to be un-American. And they believe it to their bones. One only has to look at this year’s Oscar race to see Trump in everything. Talk about everything everwhere all at once, there has been no single figure that Hollywood and the Left — its media, its government — has obsessed on more than Trump. It’s their one last cancel that they couldn’t cancel so they punish people they can punish.
When I started this site I started with the premise of William Goldman’s famous line, Nobody knows anything, and it’s still true today. I wish it was more true today. I wish those old dudes who used to be mavericks with their balls out still had those balls intact. They’ve long since been castrated. They are now a grease stain where a lot of talent and grit used to be. Alas. The tree had to be shaken to allow for more than just the hetero white dudes, we all know that, but sooner or later it became less about the audiences and more about elevating those purposeless white people who must have their virtue validated.
Those who pay Penske’s bills and their own are happy in this cocoon they’ve built for themselves as they were when I started 25 years ago. There is no tree shaking anymore, but for the occasional eruption of the scolds on Twitter who get offended by this, offended by that. Even the hilarious Paloma Diamond trend on TikTok where users have invented and manifested a whole story around a fictional actress who has been nominated 19 times and never won. It’s far more interesting than anything generated in this mess that we call the Oscar race for real. Offended? How sad. There is nothing offensive about creativity on that level.
Artists must be fearless and no, not another WAAAA TRUMP fearlessness. Who cares? Get over it. WHO CARES. But fearlessness in mocking the whole system. Julien Sewell doesn’t do it in a mean way. He has one goal: to be funny. And that is why TikTok is more popular now than Hollywood. Why would anyone waste their time to be strapped in a seat in a movie theater and have to watch them try to fix you as you’re sitting there?
You in the audience, yeah you. We don’t like you. You’re too white, you’re too male, you’re too convention, you’re too heterosexual, you’re too Christian, you’re too traditional and we quietly think all of you are RACISTS or BIGOTS or HOMOPHOBES and we’re going to FIX YOU so sit there and take it because we don’t want to be seen as bad people, those of us at the top who pay Penske’s bills.
On TikTok, there is no fixing. There is only free market. An algorithm that finds what people want to see and gives it to them. It is the very thing Hollywood used to do but doesn’t anymore and they wonder why everyone tunes them out. Here is another movie that plays like a therapy session about my relationship with my dad. Isn’t it interesting? Why won’t you pay to see it? Here is a movie, yet another, about all of the bad things we did to people fifty years ago. Isn’t it interesting? Here is how we plan to transform the superhero genre to make it more “progressive,” isn’t it interesting?
So now that we’ve set the scene for where we are in history let’s ask ourselves what this year’s Oscar race will be about. I can give you a spoiler alert now if you would like. It will be about exactly what the election has been about. Hollywood had defaulted to its happy place, cosplaying “The Resistance” by LARPing oppression. What else do they have?
They will loudly applaud the lines about Trump, which will translate as: anti-immigrant, anti-abortion, racist. They will show America that they are still consumed by the same thing that has driven their business into the ground over the past eight years. The ratings will suck. There will be hit piece after hit piece, though probably not inside the ecosystem that pays Penske and everyone else’s bills. Everyone will go home, turn on MSNBC and feel better about their side.
They are all stuck because they can’t risk a scandal. They are all terrified that they become Karla Sofia Gascon, or god forbid, ME, so they stay silent. They keep their heads down and they never talk about the giant elephant standing in the middle of the room. They can’t. Gotta keep the money train a-rolling.
They’re good people at the Academy. I know them. They have no idea how to fix this problem only that all of their donors and the higher ups that run the joint don’t want to be seen as bad people so they will keep the plates spinning as long as they can. They are motivated by their image, their status, inside utopia.
But what will win, you might ask. After all, isn’t that why all of you are here? I suppose that’s the question. Or maybe the question is, what movie can capture a majority of hearts and minds and why.
Predictions
The Producers Guild have voted. They did so after the Golden Globes and amid the madness of the fires. They probably voted before the Emilia Perez debacle, although there’s a good chance they will never hear about it. Rebecca Keegan isn’t going to go to all of them and ask them point-blank what they plan to do about these terrible tweets. Nah, she’s a Penske-owned reporter and that’s the last thing she’ll do. Think of the millions they make on Netflix alone.
But I won’t be surprised, and I shouldn’t be either, if the Producers Guild produces a movie no one sees coming, like A Complete Unknown. It has everything an Oscar Best Picture needs, except an editing nomination. That’s the only problem. Otherwise, it’s liked by the exact demo that votes on these things. It has a male lead, and it made money.
The Producers Guild also uses the preferential ballot, so that means a movie like Emilia Perez might do well. What does well on a preferential ballot is a good intentions movie, one driven by good will. Emilia Perez has been hit with every attack imaginable but it’s the tweets that threaten the good will part. At least that will be true for some. It could also have the Green Book effect, where voters see the mob go too far and they vote in a way that sends a message back to the mob.
The one Academy member I know who regretted her vote for Green Book because now, it was “racist” seemed to be the exact kind of person who wouldn’t vote for Emilia Perez. But the old maverick dudes in the Academy might feel resentful over it. Maybe they secretly agree with Gascon. So I would not write it off just yet if I were all of you.
Anora is riding the sweet spot now because it flew under the radar, so much so that it has gathered no moss. It has nothing but good will, like A Complete Unknown. It will be upvoted because it is a feelgood, emotional movie. Almost no one (except Erick Weber) hates the movie. So I can’t do anything but what my instincts tell me just before the February 8th blowout of the DGA and the PGA.
Best Actress feels like a knock out, drag out between Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres, both of them the Globe winners. Only one can prevail. Will they split and hand it to Mikey Madison? Maybe.
Best Actor feels like it’s leaning in Timothee Chalamet’s direction. For it to be anyone else feels like a heavy lift at this point. Chalamet has the wind at his back turning in not one but two Best Picture contenders that made money. He is a Barbenheimer phenom on his own: a blockbuster with Dune Part Two and a biopic with A Complete Unknown.
Will Best Director and Best Picture link up? Hard to say. Like other pundits, we’re getting a Brady Corbet vibe for Best Director — and it’s hard to not see him winning that, considering the high ambition of The Brutalist. That’s a film that can’t win on a preferential ballot, I don’t think. I could be wrong. It might win the PGA and then the Oscar but it has no ACE nom and no SAG ensemble nom.
Screenplay seems iffy too at the moment.
Conclave will go to war with Nickel Boys, a movie these voters will want to see “win something.” Follow the heart light.
The Brutalist goes up against Anora in the original, but watch out for A Real Pain in that category too. Anora doesn’t seem to me like a movie that will win in original because it’s more of a director movie. The Brutalist is likely too opaque of a story for many to connect to, so would they give him a consolation prize in screenplay? And then there’s September 5th. Can it win with the Academy? It would be a worthy winner, that’s for sure. If Anora wins Best Picture, it will win either director or screenplay, not both. Screenplay, therefore, becomes maybe the consolation prize.
So here are my predictions for this week.
Best Picture
1. Anora
2. A Complete Unknown
3. The Brutalist
4. Conclave
5. Wicked
6. The Substance
7. Emilia Pérez
8. Dune: Part Two
9. I’m Still Here
10. Nickel Boys
Best Director
1. Sean Baker, Anora
2. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
3. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown
4. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
5. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Best Actress
1. Demi Moore, The Substance
2. Mikey Madison, Anora
3. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
5. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Actor In A Leading Role
1. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Actress In A Supporting Role
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (but the scandal might take her down too, who knows, maybe not)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
4. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
5. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Actor In A Supporting Role
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
2. Yura Borisov, Anora
3. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
4. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Writing (Original Screenplay)
1. The Brutalist
2. A Real Pain
3. The Substance
4. Anora
5. September 5
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
1. Conclave
2. Nickel Boys
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Sing Sing
5. Emilia Pérez
Cinematography
1. The Brutalist
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Nosferatu
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Maria
Film Editing
1. Anora
2. Conclave
3. The Brutalist
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Wicked
Production Design
1. The Brutalist
2. Wicked
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Nosferatu
5. Conclave
Costume Design
1. Wicked
2. A Complete Unknown
3. Nosferatu
4. Conclave
5. Gladiator II
Sound
1. A Complete Unknown
2. Dune: Part Two
2. Wicked
3. Emilia Pérez
5. The Wild Robot
Makeup And Hairstyling (it often goes with the actor winning the Oscar)
1. The Substance
2. Wicked
3. A Different Man
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Nosferatu
Visual Effects
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes
3. Alien: Romulus
4. Better Man
5. Wicked
Music (Original Score)
1. The Brutalist, Daniel Blumberg
2. The Wild Robot, Kris Bowers
3. Conclave, Volker Bertelmann
4. Emilia Pérez, Clément Ducol And Camille,
5. Wicked, John Powell And Stephen Schwartz
Music (Original Song)
1. El Mal, From Emilia Pérez
2. Like A Bird, From Sing Sing
3. The Journey, From The Six Triple Eight
4. Mi Camino, From Emilia Pérez
5. Never Too Late, From Elton John: Never Too Late
International Feature Film (iffy but I’m Still Here is the better film if voters watch it, I might change this as the scandal unfolds)
1. Brazil, I’m Still Here
2. France, Emilia Pérez
3. Denmark, The Girl With The Needle
4. Germany, The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
5. Latvia, Flow
Animated Feature Film
1. Flow
2. The Wild Robot
3. Inside Out 2
4. Memoir Of A Snail
5. Wallace& Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Documentary Feature Film
1. Sugarcane
2. No Other Land
3. Black Box Diaries
4. Porcelain War
5. Soundtrack To A Coup D’etat
Documentary Short Film (haven’t yet watched these so spitballing)
1. Incident
2. Death By Numbers
3. I Am Ready, Warden
4. Instruments Of A Beating Heart
5. The Only Girl In The Orchestra
Live Action Short Film
1. I’m Not A Robot
2. Anuja
3. A Lien
4. The Last Ranger
5. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Animated Short Film
1. Wander To Wonder
2. Beautiful Men
3. In The Shadow Of The Cypress
4. Magic Candies
5. Yuck!
Have yourself a wonderful weekend. And chin up, the future looks brighter than you think.