It would be the understatement of the year to say this was a quite shocking, and to many, upsetting week when it came to the Oscar race. What was already an unpredictable, and quite frankly, indefinable awards season with no clear frontrunner (or one that is rotating every few weeks) has hit roadblocks with controversy after controversy, and questions arising whether any will stick with voters or in the hemisphere of the industry in general.
Just a few weeks ago, when the Golden Globes decided to anoint Emilia Perez as a Best Picture frontrunner over Sean Baker’s Anora, there has been growing, negative sentiment regarding Audiard’s experimental musical. The project already had a ton of hate regarding its depiction of its numerous subject matters (the Mexican and Trans community specifically rallying against it) but it seemed unstoppable for a few weeks due to its crowd-pleasing aura and the belief that voters would want to “be an ally” by voting for it, as many have hyped it up as the Anti-Trump movie (despite its numerous criticisms from the groups it is representing).
When the nominations came out, and Emilia Perez led with THIRTEEN, landing in every category it could have gotten into from Best Picture to Original Song, many believed it was set in stone, and the film was set for Oscar love as a progressive winner that makes a statement against Trumpism, etc (the reverse-Crash so to speak). Despite whatever issues happened before (low audience scores, criticism from certain people, etc) it didn’t seem to resonate or matter with people in the industry. However, it all came home to roost in the past week, with Audiard’s comments on Mexican culture being the warmup, and Karla Sofia Gascon’s problematic (to put it more bluntly, hateful) tweets becoming a massive focal point. It hasn’t stopped yet, with Gascon releasing an apology and deactivating her X account(and the Oscars Instagram account unfollowing her), with many suggesting the damage is done, and whatever “goodwill” the film had evaporated. One could argue that this supposed controversy might recede (as evidenced by Green Book’s win a few years ago) but that film clearly had passionate supporters, and it was a very different time period. A lot of people (myself included) can’t in good faith really see this film winning Best Picture (and it might continue to sink, but that is too early to say).
Suffice to say, we are back to having a frontrunner-less Best Picture race once again. It was Sean Baker’s Anora for some time, and then it was Brady Corbet’s The Brutalist, and then it was Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Perez, but the question must be stated, what if it really is Edward Berger’s Conclave? It’s clearly the movie that has the least amount of “hate or controversy” per say and but like the film’s overall message, maybe that’s enough to win in such a chaotic, and divisive environment. I said in my last column that this was a race really between four films for the Best Picture Oscar, and that is still be true even now, but the ranking has been consistently shifting since November, based on both vibes and statistics.
CCA preview
Ballots were due for Critics Choice just five days after the Globe ceremony, and though the date itself has been changed, the voting timeframe did not. So, based upon that, you probably have to default to the so-called “Oscar frontrunners” back in early January if one wants to get a solid score. I expect love for The Brutalist and it to possibly solidfy itself as the critics frontrunner over Anora due to the voting base seeing the momentum for Corbet’s film and not wanting to go against the grain.
Critics Choice Predix
Best Film: The Brutalist (alt: Anora)
Best Director: Brady Corbet (alt: Sean Baker)
Best Actor: Adrien Brody (alt: Timothee Chalamet)
Best Actress: Demi Moore (alt: Mikey Madison), though truthfully this might be a notorious CCA Tie
Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin (alt: Guy Pearce)
Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana (alt: Ariana Grande)
Best Original Screenplay: Anora (alt: The Brutalist)
Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave (alt: Nickel Boys)
Best Ensemble: Wicked (alt: Conclave)
Best Cinematography: The Brutalist (alt: Dune Part 2)
Best Editing: Dune Part 2 (alt: Challengers)
Best Costume Design: Wicked (alt: Conclave)
Best Production Design: Wicked (alt: The Brutalist)
Best Original Score: Challengers (alt: The Brutalist)
Best Original Song: El Mal (alt: Mi Camino)
Best Hair and Makeup: The Substance (alt: A Different Man)
Best Visual Effects: Dune Part 2 (alt: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes)
Best Foreign Language Film: Emilia Perez (alt: All We Imagine as Light or I’m Still Here)
Best Animated Film: The Wild Robot (alt: Flow)
PGA Preview
Occurring on the same night as DGA (February 8th), this is a crucial precursor not only because of the voter overlap with AMPAS, but the presence of the preferential ballot. One would argue that it awards “consensus,” but it is also about passion and advocacy. For a few weeks now, many have suggested that Emilia Perez could win here, given the advocacy narrative, and with voting ending just yesterday, perhaps the controversy didn’t factor into how people voted. It’s a tough race to call, and if Emilia Perez does in fact take PGA (or discussed in a little bit, DGA) that might shake up the race in a significant manner (and the toxicity will continue to build). However, due to the idea that the two guilds don’t tend to split as much as people say, I am sticking (probably against my better judgment) with The Brutalist (it is a producing achievement after all), and PGA/DGA does tend to match (26/35, or 74% of the time), I am reluctantly sticking with that. But this is a weird year (prepare for a nightmarish few weeks if Emilia Perez is the PGA/DGA winner though). Conclavesticks out as the dark horse and does fit the populist zeitgeist of this voting body. Anora remains my preference though, and it does stand a chance due to its consistency in landing nominations, but maybe it just isn’t important enough for this major guild. Who knows, even A Complete Unknown could prevail at this rate.
PGA Prediction:
The Brutalist (alt: Emilia Perez, Conclave or Anora)
DGA Preview
Five noticeable filmmakers, ranging from the ambitious to the more subdued, will be honored this Saturday in addition to what happens with the Producers Guild. This SHOULD be easy for Brady Corbet to take, but, if these industry voters want to go against the grain and recognize a more populist option, Sean Baker or (God forbid) Jacques Audiard seem like the alternates. The annual three-hour director conversation will be fascinating to hear about no doubt, and I suggest everyone listens to it.
DGA Prediction:
Brady Corbet (alt: Sean Baker or Jacques Audiard)
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